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Full text of "Estimates of future population of the United States, 1940-2000"

ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION 

OF THE UNITED STATES 

1940-2000 



AUGUST 1943 
NATIONAL RESOURCES PLANNING BOARD 



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^- S. DOCS. 



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ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION 

OF THE 

UNITED STATES 

1940-2000 



Prepared by 

WARREN S. THOMPSON and P. K. WHELPTON 

of the 
Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems 



FOR THE 

COMMITTEE ON POPULATION PROBLEMS 

OF THE 

NATIONAL RESOURCES PLANNING BOARD 

UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1943 

For kale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing OfiSce, Washington, D. C. - - Price 35 cents 

U. S. DOCS. 

mi STATE UNIVERSITY LIBRARY 



NATIONAL RESOURCES PLANNING BOARD 

Frederic A. Delano, Chairman 



Charles E. Merriam 



Henry S. Dennison 



Frank W. Herring 



Edwin B. Wilson, 

Chairman 
Ross Harrison 
Arthur Day 
Dugald Jackson 



ADVISORS 

DIRECTOR 

Charles W. Eliot 
ASSISTANT DIRECTORS 

Thomas C. Blaisdell, Jr. 
lyi charge of this project 

EXECUTIVE OFFICER 

Harold Merrill 



SCIENCE COMMITTEE 

Leonard Carmichael 
William F. Ogburn 
Dexter Kffzfr 
Guy S. Ford 



George F. Yantis 



Beardsley Ruml 



Ralph J. W'atkins 



Waldo G. Leland 
Charles R. Morey 
Edward C. Elliott 
George D. Stoddard 



COMMITTEE ON POPULATION PROBLEMS 

Edwin B. Wilson, Chairman Dugald Jackson William F. Ogburn 



TECHNICAL STAFF 

E. p. Hutchinson 

ACKNOWLEDGMENT 



The estimates of the future population of the United States were prepared for the 
Committee on Popuhition Prohlems by Warren S. Thompson and P. K. \Mielpton of 
the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems. 



h 



J^ 






Executive Office of the President, 
National Resources Planning Board, 

Washington, D. C, August 24, 1943. 
The President, 

The White House. 

My Dear Mr. President: 

We have the honor to transmit a report on "Estimates of the Future 
Population of the United States," prepared for our Committee on PopuLation 
Problems by the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems. 

Forecasts of the growth and distribution of population are obviously 
basic to all plans for development ot the resources of the nation. In its 1934 
Report, the National Resources Board included some estimates of population 
trends prepared with the help of this same Foundation, and those estimates 
were further developed in a series of reports in 1936 and 1937, prepared in 
connection with our study of "The Problems of a Changing Population." 
These previous estimates were based on the 1930 Census. 

When the materials for the 1940 Census became available, our Science 
Committee recommended that our prior estimates should be brought up to 
date in the light of this new evidence. We were fortunate to be able to ar- 
range with the Scripps Foundation for the preparation of the new estimates 
contained in this report. 
Sincerely yours, 

Frederic A. Delano, 

Chairman. 
Charles E. Merriam 
George F. Yantis 
End. 



ESTIMATES OF THE FUTURE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES, 1940 2000 



Page 

Introduction 3 

Statement of Assumptions 5 

A. Mortality trends, 1940 to 2000 5 

B. Fertility trends, 1940 to 2000 13 

C. Underenunieration of children 22 

D. Immigration and future population growth 23 

E. The distribution of war losses 27 

Indicated Population Changes 29 

F. Growth of total population 29 

G. The sex ratio 30 
H. Age composition 32 

I. Color and nativity 33 

J. Demographic effects of the war 34 

Implications of the Indicated Population Changes 36 



Tables 

1. United States Abridged Life Tables 1930-40 and 

Hypothetical Tables for Future Years Assuming 
High, Medium, and Low Mortality Trends 39 

2. Future Population of the United States, High 

Fertility, High Mortality, No Immigration, No 
War Losses 43 

3. Future Population of the United States, High 

Fertility, Medhim Mortality, No Immigration, 
No War Losses 48 

4. Future Population of the L^nited States, High 

Fertility, Medium Mortality, With Immigration, 
No War Losses 53 

5. Future Population of the United States, High 

Fertility, Low Mortality, No Immigration, No 
War Losses 57 

6. Future Population of the United States, Medium 

Fertilitj', High Mortality, No Immigration, No 
W^ar Losses 62 

7. Future Population of the United States, Medium 

Fertility, Medium Mortality, No Immigration, 
No War Losses 68 



Pa Be 



8. 



United States, Low 
No Immigration, No 

United States, JjOW 



Future Population of the United States, Medium 
Fertility, Medium Mortality, With Immigration, 
No War Losses 
9. Future Population of the United States, Medium 
Fertility, Low Mortality, No Immigration, No 
War Losses 

10. Future Population of the 

Fertility, High Mortality, 
War Losses 

11. Future Popidation of the 

Fertility, Medium Mortality, No Immigration, 
No War Losses 

12. Future Population of the United States, Low 

Fertility, Medium Mortality, With Immigration, 
No War Losses 

13. Future Population of the United Slates, Low 

Fertility, Low Mortality, No Immigration, No 
War Losses 

14. Deductions to be Made from Future Population in 

Table 3 to Allow for 110,000 Fewer Births during 
1944-1945 

15. Deduction to be Made from Future Population in 

Table 3 to Allow for the Deaths of 1 10,000 Males 
in the Armed Services during 1943-1944 and the 
Accompanying Decrease in the Birth Rate 

16. Deductions to be Made from Future Population in 

Table 7 to Allow for 110,000 Fewer Births during 
1944-1945 

17. Deductions to he Made from Future Population in 

Table 7 to AUow for the Deaths of 110,000 Males 
in the Armed Services during 1943-1944 and the 
Accompanying Decrea.se in the Birth Rate 

18. Deductions to be Made from Future Population in 

Table 11 to Allow for 110,000 Fewer Births during 
1944-1945 

19. Deductions to be Made from Future Population in 

Table 1 1 to Allow for the Deaths of 1 10,000 Males 
in the Armed Services during 1943-1944 and the 
Accompanying Decrease in the Birth Rate 

20. Percent Distribution by 5- Year Age Periods for the 

Total Population of the United States, 1900-2000 132 

21. Percent Distribution by 5- Year Age Periods for the 

Native White Population of the United States, 
1900-2000 

22. Percent Distribution by 5- Year Age Periods for the 

Colored Population of the United States, 1900- 
2000 



74 



79 



86 



92 



98 



102 



108 



112 



116 



120 



124 



128 



134 



136 



INTRODUCTION 



Revision of earlier estimates 

The present set of estimates of the future population 
of the United States is the third to be prepared for the 
National Kesources Planning Board by Warren S. 
Thompson and P. K. Whelpton of the Scripps Founda- 
tion for Researeh in Population Piobleins. Earlier 
estimates were made in 1934 and 1937.' Although 
only a few years have elapsed sinee the publication of 
the more recent of these preceding estimates, it has 
become apparent that, quite apart from the war, cer- 
tain changes have been taking place to alter the outlook 
for population in the United States. Among the new 
factors that are affecting the future size and composi- 
tion of the population are the continuance through 
. 1942 of the upward turn of the birth. rate that began 
in the middle 1930's, the introduction of the new 
chemotherapy with its promise of further reduction in 
mortality, the relatively favorable course of Negro 
mortality in recent years, the progressively greater 
concentration of childbearing in the earlier years of 
marriage, and considerable advances in the science of 
nutrition. These developments alone, without the 
intervention of the war, would have necessitated a 
revision of earlier estimates of future population. The 
departure from the previously indicated trends will be 
further accentuated by wartime conditions. Although 
the precise nature and extent of the war's effect on 
population are not predictable at the present time, 
there will unquestionably be both temporary and last- 
ing effects on vital trends in the United States. 

Because of the very considerable changes that have 
occurred since the publication of the earlier data by 
the National Resources Committee, it has become 
desirable to prepare new estimates of future popula- 
tion. These new estimates, based on the 1940 census, 
are in effect a statement of the significance of the recent 
vital changes in terms of the probable future size and 
composition of the population of the United States. 

Form of the estimates 

Twelve series of estimates have been prepared, each 
based on a set of assumptions with respect to the course 
of fertility, mortality, and immigration. As in the 

1 See National Resources Committee. Population Stalifitics, 1. National Data, 
I9S7: also The Problems of a Changing Population, 1938, pp. 22-27, and Estimates of 
Future Population by States, !93i. 



previously published estimates, thi'ee alternative as- 
sumptions arc made with respect to fertility, these 
being designated as high, medium, and low. High, 
medium, and low assumptions are also made for the 
course of mortality. The effect of an average net 
immigration of 100,000 foreign-born whites per annum, 
beginning in 1945, is estimated under three combina- 
tions of fertility and mortality assumptions. 

With regard to the detail in which the estimates are 
available, the figures are presented separately by sex 
for each of three color and nativity groups, these being 
native-born white, foreign-born white, and colored. 
This division differs in one respect from the preceding 
estimates, in which the colored were classified into 
Negroes and other colored people.. In conformity 
with the census practice, Mexicans were included 
among "other colored" in the earliei"' estimates and 
among the whites in the present series. As before, the. 
estimates are given by 5-year age groups and at 5-year 
intervals, but the projection of population trends is 
extended in the present estimates up to the year 2000. 
In accordance with the preceding estimates, two figures 
are given in each case for the 0-4 age group, one being 
the estimated total number under 5 years of age, the 
other being a smaller number which reflects the under- 
enumeration of young children by the census. There 
are therefore tw'o estimates of total population at each 
quinquennial interval, one a higher or "true" figure 
and the other corresponding to the expected census 
count. 

Interpretation of the estimates 

Some care must be exercised in the use and interpre- 
tation of these estiinates. It is to be emphasized that 
they are not predictions of future population size, nor 
are they to be assumed to indicate the probable sex and 
age structure. Thc}-^ are, strictly speakmg, merely 
statements of what the size and the sex, age, color, and 
nativity composition of the population would be at 
specified future times if birth rates, death rates, and 
immigration were to follow certain specified trends. 
While it is true that the fertility and mortality assump- 
tions have been chosen with regard to the indicated 
trends of vital rates, the purpose of the estimates is to 
show the approximate range within which future popu- 

3 



< 



National Resources Planning Board 



lation would fall under the influence of current trends, 
rather than to arrive at a single most probable figure. 

In the second place, the revised estimates when 
compared with the previously published material give 
evidence of the predictable net effect, in terms of future 
numbers and composition, of the recent vital changes. 

Thirdly, the estimates in their unadjusted form, 
without modification for war losses, will serve as a 
bench mark against which the demographic effects of 
the war and of subsequent changes in fertility and 
mortality can be judged in later years. 

In the fourth place, such estimates, by demonstrating 
the numerical effect of different birth rates, death rates, 
and amounts of immigration, provide a basis for judging 
how great a departure from the assumed trends would 
be required to give a different population total or a 
different composition at some future time. \MiOe there 
is no immediate prospect of such an application in the 
United States, there are several European countries in 
which it has come to be considered a matter of national 
interest to maintain a certain population size or rate of 
natural increase. 

Finally, these national estimates provide a frame of 
reference within which corresponding data may be pre- 
pared for smaller units such as regions. States, or cities. 
Although population changes in these smaller areas will 
depend primarily on migration within the United States, 
the opportunity of any area to draw on or to contribute 



to this migration will be affected by national population 
trends. 

The usefulness of the estimates of future population 
for any of the above purposes depends in large measure 
on the reasonableness of the underlying assumptions on 
which the new tables are constructed. In order to facili- 
tate the use of the estimates, a detailed statement of 
these assumptions is given below. Mortality trends are 
discussed in section A. A similar account of the back- 
ground of the fertility assumptions is given in section 
B. In section C, the underenumeration of children is 
discussed. The method used to show the effect of 
immigration on the growth and composition of the pop- 
ulation is explained in section D. Since there is little 
basis for estimating the course of immigration, the pro- 
cedure that has been followed is to assume a fixed 
amount for each 5-year period and to compute the 
resultant population. From this material the effect of 
any multiple or fraction of this amount of immigration 
can be ascertained. In section E is a discussion of the 
problem of making allowance for the effects of the war. 
In further conmientary on the estimates of future 
population, a summarization of some of the prospective 
changes is given in the later sections of the text. Both 
the explanation of the underlymg assumptions and the 
discussion of the prospective changes are based directly 
on statements of method and analyses that have been 
prepared by Thompson and 'Whelpton. 



STATEMENT OF ASSUMPTIONS 



A. MORTALITY TRENDS, 1940-2000 



Mortality trends in the United States 

Although the future course of mortality rates in the 
United States will be in large measure dependent on 
changes in the general standard ot living, on the level 
at which public health services are maintained, and on 
advances in medical science and nutrition, the pros- 
pects for further reduction of death rates can best be 
judged from a consideration of the past trends of mor- 
tality. Unfortunately for this purpose, the record of 
mortality within the United States has been far from 
complete. Although an official record of deaths has 
been kept hi a few States for over a hundred years, it is 
only within comparatively recent j^ears that the re- 
portuig of deaths can be assmned to have attained 90 
percent or more of completeness for the country as a 
whole. It was in fact not until 1933 that the death 
registration area, for which the standard is a reporting 
of at least 90 percent of all deaths, came to cover the 
entire United States. The completeness with which 
deaths are registered is known to vary widely between 
different sections of the population and between dif- 
ferent parts of the country. For these reasons, trends 
of mortality camiot be followed over any considerable 
period for the country as a whole, but only for those 
States which were admitted earliest to the death 
registration area. 

During the last 40 years and more there has been a 
striking declme in the death rates of children and 
young adults within the death registration area (see 
table A 1). For white males in the original registration 
States, the 1929-31 death rates are seen to be less than 
half those of 1900-02 at nearly every age up to 40 and 
less than one-third as large at ages 1 to 4. Further 
substantial declines occurred among native white males 
in the entire United States during the 1930's, the 1939- 
40 death rates being from 20 to 45 percent below those 
for 1929-31 at nearly every age under 40. Improve- 
ment in the middle years of life was much less marked. 
At ages 50-54 for example the decline from 1900-02 to 
1929-31 was less than 7 percent, and from 1929-30 to 
1939-41 was barely 5 percent. Among those 60 and 
over, death rates remained relatively unchanged, being 
somewhat higher in 1929-31 than in 1900-02 but re- 



duced slightly during the 1930's. At each age the 
death rates for females followed a similar trend, though 
in the majority of cases the declines slightly exceeded 
those of males. 

Table A 1. — Death Rales and Average Future Lifetime of White 
Males at Seleeted Ages in the Death Registration Slates, 1000-1002 
to 1929-31, and of Native White Males in the United Stales, 
1929-30 and 1939-40 





DEATH RATE FOR AGE PERIOD » 








Original death registration States ' 


United States 




1900- 
1902 J 


1909- 
1911 » 


1919- 
1920" 


1929- 
1931 « 


1929- 
1930 < 


1939- 
1940 < 


Age period: 


159.3 
18.0 
4.4 
2.7 
6.4 
8.4 

n.6 

17.4 
33.6 
70.7 
142.1 


145.7 

14. S 

3.6 

2.4 

6.2 

7.3 

11.0 

17.5 

36.0 

74.6 

146.4 


112.1 

10.2 
3.4 
2.4 
6.0 
6.9 
9.1 
16.0 
30.9 
71.1 
138.6 


72.7 

6.3 

2.2 

1.6 

3.2 

4.2 

8.1 

10.3 

34.2 

73.2 

148.1 


68.0 

5.6 

2.2 

1.7 

3.6 

4.6 

7.6 

14.4 

30.8 

71.6 

141.4 


49.4 


1-4 . 


2 9 


5-9 

10-14 . 


1.2 
1 2 


20-24 


2.4 


30-34 


3.2 


40^4 


6.2 


60-54 


13 6 


60-64 


30.0 


70-74. 


66.6 


75 and over 


140.4 



AVERAGE YEARS OF LIFE REMAINING TO PERSONS ALIVE AT 
EXACT AGE (e°) 



E-xact age: 



20 


48.2 
42.2 
27.7 
14.4 


60.2 
42.7 
27.4 
14.0 


54.0 
44.3 
28.8 
14.6 


68.6 
46.5 
28.6 
14.2 


68.8 
45.9 
29.2 
14.5 


62.5 
47.6 


40 

60 


29.9 
14.9 



' Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, 
New York. New Ji^rsey, Indiana, Michican, and District of Columbia. No adjust- 
ment has l^een made for incomplete registration of deaths. 

3 Values for average future lifetime for these years are talien from "United States 
Life Tables," Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, G. P. 0., 
1936. 

3 Values for average future hfetime for this year are computed from "United States 
Abridged Life Tables, 1919-20," Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 
Washington, G. P. O., 1923. 

* Computed by the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems. 
Registered deaths have been increased by 3,6 percent in 1929-30 and 3.1 percent in 
1939-40 to allow for incomplete registration, and the number of children under 5 in- 
creased by 7 percent to allow for underenumeration in the census. South Daitota and 
Texas are not included in 1929-30. 

> Deaths per year during age period per 1,000 persons alive at midpoint of age period, 

A summary of the influence of these death rate 
changes on the length of life of an average individual is 
given in the lower section of table A 1, With the mor- 
tality rates of 1939-40 the average native white male 
would live 62.5 years, approximately 14 years longer 
than with the 1900-02 rates. Those reaching age 20 
had 47.6 years of life remaining according to the 1939- 
40 figure, a gain of about 5 years. Future longevity 
at age 40 increased by nearly 2 years to 29.9. At 



6 



Actional Resources Planning Board 
Table A 2. — Death Rates in the United Slates and in the States With Lowest and Second Lowest Rate, White Persons, 1940 ' 





Males 


Females 


Age period 


Lowest rate 


Second lowest rate 


United 
States 
rate 


Lowest rate 


Second lowest rate 


United 

States 

rate 


tJnderl 


Oreg 

Conn - 

Conn 

R.I.... 

R.I 

S. Dak... 

S. Dak 

S.Dak 

N.Dak 

S.Dak.... 


. 42.8 
. 1.7 
. .7 
. .8 
. 1.0 
. 1.8 
. 4.0 
. 8.0 
. 21.3 
. 57.0 


Minn 43.2 

Minn... 2.0 

N.H 9 

Conn 8 

Conn 1.5 

R.I 1.9 


68.6 

2.9 

1.2 

1.1 

2 4 

3.2 

6.3 

14.3 

31.6 

70.1 


Oreg 

Conn. 

Conn. 

Conn 

R.I 

N.Dak 

N.Dak 

N.Dak 


. 30.0 

- 1.7 
. .5 
. .6 
. 1.1 
. 1.3 
. 3.2 
. 6.2 

- 16.0 
. 42.7 


Minn 32.6 

Minn _ 1.8 

R.I .5 

Mass.. 6 

Conn 1.1 


45.0 

2.5 

.9 

.8 
1.7 


1-4 - - 


5-9 


10-14 


20-24 


30-34 


40-44 


Nehr 3.3 

S.Dak 6.6 

Iowa 16.1 

Nebr... 44.5 


4.4 
9 3 


60-64 


N.Dak 8.6 

S. Dak 21.7 

N.Dak S7.6 


60-64. 


21 5 


70-74 


Wyo 


55.8 





' Deaths in 1940 during apo period per 1,000 persons alive at midpoint of age period. Deaths registered in the United States have been increased by 3.1 percent to allow for 
incomplete registration. In the States included in the table the completeness of the registration of deaths is well above that for the Nation, hence Stare deaths have not been 
adjusted. 



ages above 50 the average future lifetime lengthened 
little, if any, as would be expected from the the slight 
change in the corresponding death rates. 

Significantly greater progress in reducing mortality 
and in lengthening life has been made in some States 
than in others. For white males under 1 the 1940 
death rate was lowest in Oregon, more than 25 percent 
below the average for the United States (42.8 per 
thousand, compared to 58.6). At ages 1 to 4 Con- 
necticut was the low State, its rate of 1.7 being only a 
little more than half that of 2.9 for the Nation. A 
similar situation was found at each age from 5 to 70, the 
State with lowest, rate (Connecticut, Rhode Island, 
North Dakota, or South Dakota) being 30 to 55 percent 
below the United States average (see table A 2). At 
ages above 70 the differential narrowed, the lowest rate 
at 70 to 74 (57.0 in South Dakota) being less than 20 
percent below the United States rate of 70.1. For 
white females the general pattern was much the same, 
but the differences were slightly smaller at most ages. 

Table A 3. — Average Years of Life Remaining at Death Rates of 
United States, 1939-40 and of Lowest States, 1940 ' 





White males 


White females 


Exact age 


Average years of life 

remaining at death 

rates of— 


Differ- 
ence 


Average years of life 

remaining at death 

rates of— 


Di£fer- 




United 
States 


Lowest 
State 


United 
States 


Lowest 
State 







62 
47.3 
29.6 
14.7 


68.0 
61.9 
33.3 
16 8 


6.0 
4.6 
3.7 
2.1 


66.6 
60.8 
32.8 
16.6 


71.6 
64.6 
35.7 
18.5 


5 


20 


3 7 


40 . . 


2 9 


60 


1 9 







' Based on death rates in table A 2. 

If the death rates at each age in the entire Nation 
could be reduced to the lowest figure reached by any 
State in 1940 the average length of life would be in- 
creased significantly. For white males it would be 
68 years, an increase of 6 years over the actual national 
fiigure (see table A 3), and for white females it would be 
71.5 years, an increase of 5 years. Gains at older ages 



would be smaller in numbers of years, though relatively 
larger. ^Vliite males aged 20 would have 4.6 years 
added to their lives, those aged 40 M^o'ild gain 3.7 years, 
and even the 60-year-olds would live 2.1 years longer. 
For white females the corresponding figures are 3.7, 
2.9, and 1.9 years. 

During recent decades the States with low death 
rates at any given time have shown fairly well what the 
death rates of other States and the Nation would be a 
few years later. In general, national rates have followed 
those of the leading States most closely at the younger 
ages, and lagged the most at the older ages. For native 
white males at ages under 15 the lag has been less than 
10 years, the low death rates for Minnesota and Kansas 
during 1920-21 being surpassed by the Nation before the 
end of the 1920 decade, and the low rates for these States 
during 1928-29 being surpassed by the Nation during 
the middle of the 1930's (see table A 4). At ages 40-44 
the leading States have been about 20 years ahead. 
The rate for the United States during 1928-29 was not 
quite as low as the Minnesota rate during 1910-11, 
neither was the national rate during 1938-39 quite as 
low as the 1920-21 rate in that State or in Kansas. At 
older ages the lag exceeds 40 years. Even now the 
death rates for the United States at most ages above 
50 are not as low as those of Indiana during 1900-02. 

If the future course of mortality for the indivichial 
States and the Nation as a whole resembles that just 
described, the national death rate for ages under 15 
will be reduced to the 1940 level of the lowest States 
before 1950, and before 1960 for ages 15 to 44, but for 
the older ages the record of the best States m 1940 will 
not be equalled before the end of the century. To the 
extent that the lowest rates are aft'ected by some under- 
reporting of deaths and that the completeness of report- 
ing increases in the course of time, this schedule of 
reduction of mortality will be more difficult to achieve. 
It is also recognized that some sections of the United 
States enjoy special advantages which are reflected in 
lower mortality and which may be beyond the reach of 
the country as a whole. This does not mean, however, 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



that the increase in average duration of Ufe shown in 
table A 3 is unobtainable. On the contrary, it is to bo 
expected that death rates at the j'ounger ages will 
continue to decline after 1950 and 1960, and that these 
reductions of mortality \\i\\ ofl'set or more than offset, 
any failure to attain the record of the most favored 
States in the upper age groups. In short, to judge 
from the experience of the States with the lowest 
mortality it should be possible to lower the death rates 
of the wliite population of the United States so that by 
the year 2000 the average male will live more than 68 
years, and the average female more than 71.5 years. 

Mortality trends in other countries 

Several countries have surpassed the United States 
in the average length of life of their citizens. In four 
coxmtries the average white male at birth can look 
forward to a lifetime in excess of the 62-year average 
for the United States, the highest figure being 65.5 
years for New Zealand (see table A 5). At age 20 the 
United States ranks no better than ninth, and is in a 
progressively less favorable position with respect to the 
higher age groups. Comparisons of the average length 
of life of white females are somewhat more favorable 
to the United States, although tliis country is by no 
means in the leading position. 

Although New Zealand leads in average length of 
life, its specific death rates are by no means lowest at 
all age levels. It exceeds all other countries for chil- 
dren imder 5, but at ages over 15 has the lowest death 
rates only for females aged 15 to 19 and 50 to 54 (see 
table A 6). At other ages the first position is held by 
Nonvay, the Netherlands, or Denmark, with Australia 
and Sweden occasionally in the second place. At no 
age level does the United States rank first or second. 
Certam States, however, compare more favorably with 
the leadmg foreign countries. For the first year of 
life New Zealand far surpasses Oregon, but at most 
ages between 1 and 60 the best State has attained a 
death rate as low or lower than the best foreign 
country (compare tables A 2 and A 6). At the upper 



age levels the best States again fall behind the foreign 
record. 

In the past the course of mortality in the younger age 
groups in the leading foreign countries has to some cx- 

Table a 4. — Trend of Death Rates of Native White Males in the 
United States and in Selected Stales With Low Rates in 19^0 • 



Ago period 


United 


States 


Indiana • 


1928-29 


1938-39 


1901-02' 


1909-11' 


1920-21 


1928-29 


W38-39 


Under 1 


78.8 

6.7 

2.3 

1.8 

3.7 

4.7 

7.8 

14.4 

30.0 

72.7 

146.1 


68.7 

3.4 

1.4 

1.2 

2.4 

3.3 

6.4 

13.5 

29.6 

63.6 

137.8 


122.6 
14.4 
3.6 
2.8 
6.4 
6.4 
8.2 
12.4 
27.0 
66.0 
143.5 


111.-4 

11.6 

3.9 

2.4 

5 

6.3 

8.2 

12.3 

26.9 

65.6 

144. 1 


100.1 
9.0 
3.2 
2.2 
4.1 
4.7 
6.6 
10.6 
24.2 
60.6 
125 8 


75 2 

6.6 

2.2 

1.8 

3.5 

4.0 

6.4 

11.1 

27.2 

69.2 

144.3 


SI. 5 


1-i 


2.9 


5-9 -- 


1.4 


10-14 


1.3 


20-24 


2.4 


30-34-..- 


3.4 


40-44 


6.4 


60-54 


11.6 


60-64 


25.7 


70-74 - 


60.5 


75 and over .. 


139.0 








Kansas ' 




Minnesota * 


* 




1920-21 


1928-29 


1938-39 


1910-11 


1920-21 


1928-29 


1938-39 


Under 1 


84.1 

7.8 

2.8 

2.1 

3.1 

4.1 

6.7 

8.8 

20.3 

55.8 

117.0 


63^3 

4.9 

1.8 

1.6 

2.6 

3.3 

5.1 

10.2 

22.4 

5S.9 

135.6 


48.3 

2.6 

1.3 

1.1 

2.0 

2.7 

4.4 

10.6 

22 7 

53.0 

124.2 


98.1 

8.5 

3 2 

2.2 

4.4 

5 7 

7.4 

12.5 

24.0 

54. 1 

115 9 


81.9 

5 6 

2.6 

2.1 

3.7 

6. 1 

6.1 

11.8 

25 8 

54.2 

116.9 


62.2 

4.1 

1.9 

1.5 

2.9 

3.9 

5 8 

11.7 

26.3 

63.8 

117.1 


43.5 


l-t 


2.3 


5-9- 


1.2 


10-14 


1.1 


20-24 


2.1 


30-34 


2.9 


40-44-- ... 


5 


50-54 


10. G 


60-64 


24.7 


70-74 


56.4 




119.6 








Massachusetts ' 


Oregon • 




1901-02' 


1909-11! 


1920-21 


1929-30 


1938-39 


1928-29 


1938-39 


Under 1 


189.6 

19.8 

4.7 

2.7 

6.5 

S.2 

11.6 

18.4 

37.0 

73.8 

147.8 


168.2 

15.0 

3.5 

2.4 

6.1 

7.2 

10.9 

18.3 

39.4 

80.4 

150.3 


119.0 

9.5 

3.2 

2.2 

3.5 

5.2 

7.4 

13.4 

30.5 

72.3 

137.4 


76.3 

5 9 

2.1 

1.5 

3.0 

4.2 

7.0 

15.3 

31.3 

72.0 

138.7 


49.6 

2.6 

1.2 

1.0 

1.7 

2.9 

6.6 

14.8 

33.9 

67.3 

143.4 


57.1 

3.9 

2.2 

1.9 

4.1 

4.2 

7.0 

12.4 

26.6 

68.5 

134.8 


43.6 


1-4 


2.3 


5-9 


1.2 


10-14 


1.7 


20-24 ..- 


2.8 


30-34 


3.3 


40-44 - 


5 9 


50-54 . 


13.2 


60-64 


26.0 


70-74 -- 


64.7 


75 nnd rtver 


' 130.6 







I Average annual deaths during age period per 1,000 persons alive at midpoint of 
age period. Death rates for United States adjusted for incomplete registration (see 
footnote to Table A 1), but no allowance made for underenumeration of children in 
the census. 1940 death rates by States available for white males, but not for native 
white males, at time of writing (February 1943). 

3 Indiana and Massachusetts were in the death registration area when it was 
organized in 1903. 

3 These rates are for all males, of whom about 91 percent were native born in Indiana 
and about 68 percent were native born in Massachusetts. 

* Kansas was admitted to the death registration area in 1914, Minnesota in 1910, 
and Oregon in 1918. 



Table A 5. — Average Future Lifetime of Native White Males in the United States at 1939-40 Death Rates, and of White Males in Foreign 

Countries at Death Rates for Recent Pre-war Years * 



At birth 


At exact age 20 


At exact age 40 


At exact age 60 


New Zealand _ -- 


65..5 


Netherlands.- 

New Zealand 

Denmark 

Sweden 

Australia.- 

Canada - 

Germany-- 

Norway- 

United States ' 


.... 60.9 

49.9 

— . 49.8 
.... 49.4 
.... 48.8 
.... 48.7 
.-,. 48.2 
..- 47.7 
47 3 


Netherlands - 

Sweden - 

Norway 

Denmark - 

New Zealand- 

Canada - 

Australia _-_ 

Germany 

Italy-- 

Eire — 


.-.- 32.8 
...- 32.5 
.... 32.4 
.... 32.1 

32.0 

.... 31.6 

31.1 

.... 30.8 
.... 30.4 
.... 30.3 
29.6 


Norway -- 

Sweden - 

Netherlands - 

Canada. - 

Denmark - 

New Zealand 


.. 17.0 


Netherlands 

Australia 

Sweden.-- 

United Statu ' 


6.5.1 

63.5 

63.2 

- - 62.0 


16.6 

.... 16.3 

.... 16.0 

16.0 


Denmark . 


62.0 

61.0 

60.7 

60.2 


16.0 


Norway 

Switzerland 


Australia - 

Eire . 


.... 16.6 
15.5 


England and Wales 


Italy 

Germany.- ; 


16.2 


Germany- 


59.9 

59.0 

59.0 

58.0 


England and Wales -.- 

Italy 

Eire 

Switzerland 


-— 47.1 
.-.. 46.8 
.... 4«.8 
46.6 


.... 16.1 
15.0 


South Africa 


i7ni(«l Stales ' 

Belgium - 


.... 29.6 
--.- 29.6 


Latvia . .. 


. 14.7 


Eire --. 


United States > 


14.7 







• Figures for foreign countries are taken from "Population Index." Vol. 8, No. 3, July 1942, pp. 244-245. 

' Deaths registered in the United States are increased by 3.1 percent to allow for incomplete registration. No allowance is believed needed for most of the other countries. 



National Resources Planning Board 
Table A 6. — Death Rales in the United States, 1939-40, arid in Countries with Lowest and Second Lowest Rates in Recent Years ' 





White males 


White females 


Ago period 


Lowest rate 


.Second lowest rate 


United 
States 
rate' 


Lowest rate 


Second lowest rate 


United 
States 
rate' 


Under 1 


New Zealand 


. 34.5 
. 2.4 

- .8 
. .8 
. 1.8 
. 2.0 
. 3.4 

- 8.0 
. 19.4 
. 48.8 


Netherlands 

Denmark 

New Zealand 


39.4 
2.7 
1.0 

.8 
1.8 
2.2 
4.1 
9.0 
20.3 
66.2 


57.7 
3.0 
1.2 
1.2 
2.4 
3.2 
6.3 
14.2 
31.0 
68.3 


New Zealand 


. 26.0 
. 2.0 
. .6 
. .6 
. 1.3 
. 2.2 
. 3.4 
. 7.1 
. 16.7 
. 42.2 


Netherlands 

Denmark, 

NVw Zealand 

New Zealand 

Denmark 


30.0 

2.2 

.8 

.6 

1.4 

2.2 

3.6 

7.2 

18.3 

46.8 


44.7 


1.4 




2.6 


frjQ 


Denmark 

Denmark 

Denmark... 

Denmark 

Netherlands 

Netherlands 

Norway 

Norway. 


Denmark 

Denmark 

Netherlands . ... 


.9 


10-14 




.8 


20-24 


Netherlands 

Netherlands 

Denmark 

Norway 

Netherlands 

Sweden. 


1.7 


30-34 


Netherlands 

Netherlands 




2. A 


40-44 


Denmark 

Norway 

Australia 


4.5 


60-54 .- 


New Zealand 

Norway 

Norway 


8.4 


60-64 


21.fi 


70-74 


Australia 


54.9 







' Deaths per year during age period per 1,000 persons alive at midpoint of age period. 

' Deaths registered have been increased by 3.1 percent to allow for incomplete registration. 



No allowance is believed needed for the other countries. 



tent foreshadowed the trend of mortality in the United 
States. During the 1930's our infant mortahty rates 
were sunilar to those of New Zeahmd 20 years earlier 
(compare tables A 1 and A 8). At ages 1 to 24 we 
followed the leading countries more closely, our rates 
during the 1930's resembling those of New Zealand and 
Denmark some 5 to 15 years before. Above age 25 the 
lag increases, until in the age range of CO and 70 it is 
necessary to go back to 1880 or earlier to find death 
rates in Norway as high as those of the United States at 
the present time. 

Table A 7. — Average Years of Life Remaiiting at Death Rates 
of United States, 1939-40, and of Lowest Country Between 
1930 and 1940 ' 





White males 


White females 


Exact age 


Average years of 
life remaining at 
death rates of— 


Differ- 
ence 


Average years of 
life remaininR at 
death rates of— 


Dlffer- 




United 
States 


Lowest 
country 


tTnited 
States 


Lowest 
country 







62.0 
47.3 
29.6 
14.7 


68.6 
62.3 
34.0 
17.3 


6.6 
5,0 
4.4 
2.6 


66.5 
50.8 
32.8 
16.6 


70.9 
53.8 
35.5 
18.6 


4.4 


20 


3.0 


40.. 


2.7 


60 


2.0 







I Based on death rates in table A 6. 

There can be no assm-ance that the trend of mortality 
in the United States will continue to resemble that of 
foreign countries as it has in the past. The lowest for- 
eign rates, however, like the lowest State rates, do in 
any event represent attainable levels. As such they 
provide a basis for estima ting the possible lowering of 
the general level of mortality. If the death rate at each 
age were to be reduced to the lowest level reached by 
any foreign country, the average white male in the 
United States would live 68.6 years, and the average 
white female 70.9 years, these being increases of 6.6 
and 4.4 years over the present level (see table A 7). 
These figures differ only fractionally from those ob- 
tained above, usmg the mortality of the leading States. 

To summarize, it may be difficult if not actually im- 
possible for the United States to reduce the death rate 



in the upper-age groups down to the lowest points cur- 
lently maintained in the leading States and foreign 
countries. In contrast, however, it should be quite 
feasible during the next 00 years to reduce the mortality 
among cliildren and young adults down to or below the 
present State and national minimum levels. Since im- 
provement of mortality at the younger ages has much 

Table A 8. — Death Rates of Males in New Zealand and Norway, 
Selected Years Since 1S67 ' 



Age period 



Under 1 

1-4 

6-9 

10-14.... 
20-24.... 
30-34.... 
40-44.... 
50-64.... 
60-64.... 
70-74... 



Under 1 

1-4 

5-9 

10-14.... 
20-24.... 
30-34.... 
iO-Ai.... 
60-54.... 
60-64.... 
70-74.... 



New Zealand ' 



1900-1901 



78.6 
6.8 
2.4 
1.8 
4.1 
4.8 
7.1 
16.3 
26.8 
75.6 



1911 


1920-22 


1936-36 


64.3 


62.1 


34.6 


6.3 


6.0 


2.7 


2.1 


2.1 


1.4 


1.8 


1.5 


.9 


2.8 


3.1 


2.4 


4.6 


4.2 


2.3 


7.1 


6.4 


4.6 


13.7 


11.6 


9.6 


26 2 


25.1 


23.0 


63.1 


.59.6 


65.8 



1939-40 



35.2 
2.4 
1.0 
1.0 
2.2 
2.4 
4.2 
10.4 
24.1 
68.4 



Norway • 



1867-70 



126.9 
22.8 
6.5 
3.9 
9.1 
8.4 
10.6 
16.8 
28.9 
67.8 



1881-85 



115.8 
23.2 
7.9 
4.4 
9.2 
8.0 
9.2 
14.2 
26.7 
68.0 



1901-5 



92.9 

10.9 

3.6 

3.2 

9.7 

7.8 

8.6 

12.7 

23.1 

61.6 



1911-15 



75.8 
8.0 
3.3 
2.6 
8.5 
7.0 
7.9 
12.1 
22.9 
52.4 



1921-22 



61.9 
6.6 
2.3 
2.0 
7.2 
6.1 
6.3 
10.4 
21.9 
50 9 



1930-32 



61.9 

3.8 
1.6 
1.6 
4.9 
4.9 
6.8 
9.2 
20.7 
48.8 



1938-39 



42.9 
3.1 
1.4 
1.1 
3.0 
3.8 
6.2 
9.0 
19.4 
48.8 



' Deaths during age period per 1,000 persons alive at midpoint of age period. 
» From "Statistical Year-Book of the League of Nations, 1940-41," Geneva, 1941. 
• From "Annuaire Statistiquo de la Norvege, 1931," Oslo, 1931; and "Statistical 
Year-Book of the League of Nations." 

more effect on the average length of life than improve- 
ment at the upper ages, the better outlook for attaining or 
surpassing the present record low points of mortality 
among young people should more than compensate for 
the poorer prospect for comparable improvement of 
mortality at the hieher ages. It is therefore entirely 
conceivable that by the year 2000 the national averages 
foi the length of life will have exceeded 68 and 71 years, 
a greater average longevity than now prevails in any 
considerable body of people. 



Estimates of Future Population oj the United States, 1940-2000 , ) :9 

Table A 9. — Death Rates per 100,000 Persons by Important Causes of Death in the Current Registration Area, 1900-4 'o 1936-40, in 

Kansas and Wisconsin, 1936-39 and in New Zealand, 1900-4 and 1936-39 



Cause 


Current registration area 


Kansas and 

Wisconsin 


New Zealand 




1900-04 


1905-09 


1910-14 


1921-25 


1936-40 


1936-39 


1000-04 


1936-39 




1, 650. 4 


1, 536. 9 


1,415.5 


1,181.8 


1, 096. 4 


1, 043. 4 


994.5 


918.3 








33.7 
6.6 
3.7 
10.0 
11.8 
11.2 
33.0 
33.6 

155. 2 

173.3 
21.2 
12 8 
66 2 
10.9 
72. 6 

139.8 
8.1 
69.8 

112.7 
10.5 
12 7 
14.0 
93.9 
13.9 
86 6 
43.9 
13.0 
2.4 

} 83.8 


26.8 
2.9 
.3 
9.8 
9.5 
11.4 
23.9 
23.0 

123.7 

153.3 
22 6 
13.5 
71,3 
13.3 
73.9 

152 1 
15.6 
66 

112 8 
11.3 
13.2 
14.6 
98. 4 
15.3 
90.3 
31.5 
16.0 
6.6 

{ 86 4 


18.9 

2.6 

.3 

9.8 

8.5 
10.6 
11.4 
19.1 

99.8 

132 8 

20.0 

16.1 

77.3 

15.3 

77.2 

158.2 

23.7 

66 9 

92.5 

11.8 

11.9 

13.6 

101.1 

15.7 

94.1 

22 9 

16 1 

6.7 

3.0 

80.2 


7.6 
2.9 
.6 
6.0 
3.6 
7.9 
1.1 
12 3 
82 7 
82 6 
10.4 
16 1 
88.9 
17.2 
84.2 
171.4 
22.6 
50.3 
40,8 
14.6 
10.6 
7.3 
89.5 
15.6 
78.1 
12.8 
12 
8.4 
14.3 
69.3 


1.8 
1.9 


.6 
.1 


8.7 


.6 




.1 




.1 

7.5 

6.2 

10.5 

.7 

6.3 
92 4 
73.9 
23.5 

1.8 

65.8 

10.0 

37.5 

103. 2 

9.1 
39.2 
59.7 




Measles 

Scarlet fever _ - 


1.2 
1.1 
2.8 
1.9 

1.8 
60.9 
46 7 

3.5 
16.5 
115.3 
24.7 
78.6 
' 274. 6 
20.0 
34.2 
13.4 
11.3 

9.7 

8.4 
81.0 

7.9 
49 

7.7 
14.6 

7.0 
25.6 
61.2 


.6 
2 4 

1.7 

1.8 

.9 

59.4 

27.1 

2 5 

9.0 
124.7 
26.4 
89.4 
214.2 
22 4 
33.0 

8.4 
12 5 
10,0 

7.6 
77.4 

6.6 
47.3 

8.0 
16 4 

2 8 
23.2 
55.1 


2.9 

2.8 




1.4 








1.6 




39.4 


Tuberculosis of the respiratory system and acute disseminated tuberculosis. . 


33.7 
7.3 


Syphilis locomotor afa.\ia and general paralysis of the insane - - . . 


6.2 




118.0 




18.9 




64.6 




264.8 




34.3 


Bronchitis and bronchopneumonia . 


32 1 




4.5 


Appendicitis 


7.6 




10.1 

5.8 

25.8 

3.2 

44.2 

58.8 

12 3 

.4 

} 72 5 


7.2 




3.3 




37.9 




6.6 


Earlv infancy and malformations -_ 


43.9 




24.3 




11.3 




.7 


Automobile accidents -- - 


1 13.3 
J 34.9 









1 Not comparable with previous years due to change in classification. 



Mortality trends by cause of death 

An examination of trends in mortality by specific 
causes gives fmther evidence on the opportunity foi ex- 
tension of tlie average length of life. Through a com- 
bination of scientific progi-ess, public health practice, 
and general economic betterment, certain diseases 
which were importar t causes of death 40 years ago have 
been almost eliminated, while the mortality from others 
has been greatly reduced. Typhoid fever, meningitis, 
and diphtheria each killed more than 30 persons out of 
every 100,000 of population in 1900, but now take a 
toll of only 1 or 2 (see table A 9). The bronchitis and 
broncho pneumonia death rate has been reduced by a 
similar absolute amount in the same period, from almost 
70 to less than 35, and the pneumonia and influenza 
rate still more, from 155 down to 60. The largest re- 
duction of all is in tuberculosis mortality, the rate for 
which has been cut from over 170 to less than 50. A 
numericallj' smaller but proportionately larger reduc- 
tion has been achieved in diarrhea and enteritis, from 
112 to only 13 deaths per 100,000 persons per annum. 
The efi'ect on average longevity of this latter saving of 
life is particularly marked since the greater part of 
the mortality from the intestinal diseases occurred 
among yoimg children. 

In contrast to the large measure of success achieved 
Ln the control of mortality due to epidemic and infec- 
tious diseases, there has been relatively little reduction 
in the rate of deaths from certain other causes. Acci- 
dents, cerebral hemorrhage, and softening of the brain 



are each at about the same level as around the begimiing 
of the century, while cancer and the diseases of the 
circulatory system kill at about twice the former rate. 
In part the greater incidence of cancer and of certain 
of the so-called degenerative diseases is apparent rather 
than real, because of the more complete diagnosis of 
these causes of death and because of the increasing pro- 
portion of the population in the older age groups where 
they are most prevalent. Quite apart from these in- 
fluences, however, some real increase in certain causes of 
death has occurred. 

Whether or not death rates will decline substantially 
dm'iug the next 50 years will depend in part on the con- 
tinuation of the progress made in controlling diseases 
such as tuberculosis, influenza, and pneumonia. Here 
the outlook is favorable, for the more widespread utiliza- 
tion of present knowledge of the causes and control of 
these diseases would permit a substantial reduction 
below present levels. There is also a reasonable expecta- 
tion that more effective measures for the control of 
these diseases wiU be developed, and that public health 
programs will be intensified and wUl be extended to 
cover larger sections of the population. Furthermore, 
it is not unlikely that a more efl^ective control of diseases 
of infectious origin will have not only a direct effect on 
the level of mortality but wUl also have an important 
secondary effect in reducing the amount of impairment 
produced by nonfatal but nevertheless serious disease. 

Although the degenerative diseases have not as yet 
been brought under control, there is nevertheless con- 



10 



National Resources Planning Board 



tinued hope for the future. As mentioned above, the 
control of damaging infectious diseases such as scarlet 
fever, diphtheria, typhoid fever, gonorrhea, and syphilis 
should result eventually in a substantial reduction of the 
organic impairments and after-effects so common with 
such diseases. As these sequelae are reduced in fre- 
quency there should be a reduction in the number 
of organic brcak-dowms or a postponement of these 
break-downs until later in life. In combination with 
improved teclmiques for early diagnosis and for treat- 
ment, there may therefore be some reduction in the 
mortality from the degenerative diseases even without 
the discovery of improved methods for their prevention 
or treatment. 

Hypothetical mortality trends, 1940 to 2000 

The material presented above leads to the conclusion 
that in the United States the death rates at the younger 
ages will be much lower by the year 2000 than in 1940, 
somewhat lower at the middle age groups, and only 
slightly if at all lower at the higher ages. The material 
cannot indicate, however, exactly how large the reduc- 
tions wUl be nor how rapidly they will occur. It has 
therefore seemed desu'able in the preparation of the 
estimates of future population to make three alterna- 



tive sets of mortality assumptions, designated as "high 
mortality," "low mortahty," and "medium mortality," 
the first representing the least decline in the age- 
specific death rates that seems probable, the second the 
largest decline that is considered reasonable, and the 
third a position approximately midway between the 
extremes. 

With each of these assumptions it is possible to extra- 
polate past trends by 5- or 10-year intervals according 
to some formula and to arrive at hypothetical death 
rates for the year 2000. An alternative procedure is 
to study past trends and the likelihood of future changes, 
form an opinion as to the death rates to be expected in 
2000, and obtain rates for intervening years by inter- 
polation. The former method may seem to have the 
advantage of bemg less influenced by personal bias, 
but the personal element would nevertheless remain in 
the choice between two or more formulas fitting the 
past trends equally well by giving different results for 
the future. More important, the extrapolation of past 
trends according to such formulas might show future 
trends which seemed incompatible with present knowl- 
edge regarding causes of death and means of controlling 
them. After some experimentation with both methods, 
the second alternative was chosen as the more desirable 



Table A 10. — Death Rates and Average Future Lifetime of Native White Males in the United Siates, 1929-30 to SOOO ' 

DEATH RATE FOR AQE PERIOD ' 





1929-30 


1939-40 


High assumptions 


Medium assumptions 


Low assumptions 


Age period 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 
decrease 
1939-40 
to 2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 
decrease 
1939-40 
to 2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 
decrease 
1939-40 
to 2000 




68.0 

5.6 

2.2 

1.7 

2.7 

3.6 

4.0 

4.6 

6.6 

7.6 

10.2 

14.4 

21.1 

30.8 

47.8 

71.6 

109.6 

166.0 

233.0 

322.1 


49.4 

2.9 

1.2 

1.2 

1.8 

2.4 

2.6 

3.2 

4.3 

6.2 

9.2 

13.6 

20.6 

30.0 

44.2 

66.6 

106.1 

160.4 

238.5 

329.6 


30.4 
1.7 

■i 
1.2 
1.6 
1.8 
2.3 

3.: 

4.8 

7.9 

12.6 

19.9 

30.0 

44.2 

66.6 

106.1 

KM. 4 

238.5 

329.6 


27.5 

1.7 

.7 

.7 

1.1 

1.4 

1.6 

2.1 

2.9 

4.4 

7.4 

12.3 

19.6 

30.0 

44.2 

66.6 

106.1 

160.4 

2.m 5 

329.6 


27.2 

1.6 

.7 

.7 

1.1 

1.4 

1.6 

2.1 

2.8 

4.4 

7.3 

12.3 

19.6 

30.0 

44.2 

66.6 

106.1 

' 160.4 

238.5 

329.6 


45 
43 
40 
40 
40 
40 
40 
35. 
35 
30 
20 
10 
5 


30.0 

1.7 

.7 

.7 

1.0 

1.4 

1.6 

2.0 

2.8 

4.0 

6.2 

10.4 

17.7 

27.8 

42.8 

66.6 

106.1 

160.4 

238.5 

329.6 


23.7 

1.4 

.6 

.5 

.8 

1.0 

1.3 

1.6 

2.3 

3.3 

5.2 

9.0 

15.7 

2.5.9 

42.0 

66.6 

106.1 

160.4 

238:5 

329.6 


22.2 

1.3 

.6 

.5 

.7 

1.0 

1.2 

1.4 

2.2 

3.1 

6 

8.9 

15.4 

25.5 

42.0 

66.6 

106.1 

160.4 

238.5 

329.6 


56 
55 
55 
60 
60 
60 
55 
55 
60 
50 
45 
35 
25 
15 
5 


29.8 

1.7 

.7 

.6 

.9 

1.2 

1.4 

1.8 

2.6 

3.4 

5.2 

8.2 

14.6 

22.4 

33.3 

57.2 

98.4 

160.4 

238.5 

329.6 


21.6 

1.2 

.4 

.4 

.6 

.8 

.9 

1.2 

1.8 

2.4 

3.8 

5.7 

9.9 

16.1 

27.8 

53.6 

95.8 

160.4 

238.0 

329.6 


19.7 

1.0 

.4 

.3 

.4 

.6 

.8 

1.0 

1.5 

2.2 

3.7 

S.4 

9.3 

1,5.0 

26.5 

53.3 

95.5 

160.4 

23.S. 5 

329.6 


60 


1-4 


65 


5-9 


70 


10-14 


75 


16-19 


75 


20-24 


75 


25-29 


70 


30-34 


70 


35-39 - 


65 


40-44 


65 


45-49 - 


60 


60-54 - - 


60 


56-59 - 


65 


60-64 


50 


65-69 




40 


70-74 




20 


75-79 






10 


80-84 








85-89 








90-94 

















AVERAGE YEARS OF LIFE REMAINING TO PERSONS ALIVE AT EXACT AGE (e ) 





1929-30 


1939-40 


High assumptions 


Medium assumptions 


Low assumptions 


Exact age 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 
iccrea.se 
1939-40 
to 2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 
increase 
1939-40 
to 2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 
increase 
1939-40 
to 2000 





58.8 
45.9 
29.2 
14.5 


62.6 
47.6 
29.9 

14.9 


65.6 
48.7 
30.4 
14.9 


66.1 
49.0 
30.6 
14.9 


66.2 
49.1 
30.6 
14.9 


3.6 
1.5 

.7 


66.6 
49.7 
31.2 
15.1 


68.1 
60.7 
31.9 
15.3 


68.5 
50.8 
32.0 
15.3 


5.9 

3.2 

2.1 

.4 


68.3 
51.4 
32.9 
16.3 


71.3 

63.7 
34.6 
17.2 


72.1 
54.1 
34.9 
17.3 


9.5 


20 


6.5 


40 


5.0 


60 


2.4 









1 For basis of computing rates see table A 1. note 4 . 

' Deaths per year during age period per 1,000 persons alive at midpoint of age period. 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



11 



for the purpose at hand. High, medium, and low 
death rates of native white males were selected for the 
year 2000, rates for preceding years obtained by inter- 
polation, and the corresponding rates for native white 
females, and foreign-born and colored males and fe- 
males obtamed by narrowijig the dilferential between 
each of these groups and the native white males.' The 
resulting rates are given in table A 10. 

After the hypothetical death rates were set for the 
year 2000, trend lines were chosen for interpolation 
over the period from 1940 up to the end of the century. 
It was assumed that the greater part of the decline of 
mortality would occur by 1990, and that the trend 
lines would therefore be nearly horizontal by 2000, the 
miniminn rates being only slightly under the rate for 
that year. Experimentation with several conventional 
types of curves indicated that for most ages a simple 
logistic curve would best meet this requirement, pass 
through the observed rates for 1929-30 and 1939-40 
and the assumed rates for 2000, and give reasonable 
values for years prior to 1929. This type of curve 
was accordingly used in interpolation for the high 
mortality assumption, at all ages, and for the low as- 
sumptions at ages under 40. At higher age levels for 
the low mortaUty assumption simple logistic curves 
gave values that were much too high when projected 
back to years before 1929, so that it was necessary to 
modify them empirically to decrease the rate of decline 
during the decades immediately preceding 1930 and 
foUowmg 1940. The medium trend values were set 
approximately midway between the high and the low 
series. 

The hypothetical mortality trends given by this pro- 
cedure are characterized by a rapid decrease at the 
lower ages and a levehng off in the upper age gi'oups 
(see fig. 1). This pattern was followed exactly by the 
high mortality assumptions, which provided for a 45- 
percent reduction in infant mortality rates between 1940 
and 2000 and a gradually diminishing reduction until 
age 60, above which point a continuation of the 1939—40 
death rates was assimied. The high mortality assump- 
tions for the year 2000 were somewhat below the rates 
attained by any foreign country at ages under 30, but 
the differences were not large numerically (see tables 
A 6 and A 10). Only for the first year of life and be- 
tween age 10 and 15 were the high mortality assump- 
tions for 2000 less than the lowest state rates in 1940. 
With this mortality the average future lifetime would 
be increased to 66.2 years at bh-th, 49.1 at age 20, 30.6 
at age 40, and 14.9 at age 60. This is considered the 
least improvement that is to be expected. 

1 While accepting full responsibility for the mortality rate assumptions that were 
adopted, Thompson and Whelpton express their appreciation for suggestions received 
from W. R. Williamson of the Social Security Board, Leon E. Truesdell and Halbert 
L. Duim of the Bureau of the Census, and Harold F. Dom of the United States 
Public Health Service. 



A different age pattern of mortality reduction was 
followed in the low mortality assumptions. Here the 
hypothetical reduction of the death rates between 1939- 
40 and 2000 was 60 percent for infants, rising to 75 
percent in the teen ages and early adult life, then 
falling to 10 percent improvement between age 75 and 
80. The most considerable departure from the present 
record low point of mortality occms under 1 year of 
age, the rate assumed for 2000 (19.7 per 1,000) being 
nearly 15 points below the recent New Zealand 
rate (34.5 per 1,000). Between ages 1 and 70 the 
differences could not be large in absolute numbers for 
the rates are small, but they exceeded 60 percent at ages 
10 to 15, and 30 percent at other ages under 60. If 
these low rates were to prevail, the average future life- 
time in 2000 would be 72.1 years at birth, 54.1 years at 
age 20, 34.9 years at age 40, and 17.3 years at age 60. 
To achieve such longevity seems within the range of 
possibility, but it will require outstanding progress in 
medicine and public health. 

The smaller percentage decrease of the infant death 
rate than of mortality at the immediately succeeding 
ages in the low mortality assumptions needs explana- 
tion. In recent years more than 30 percent of the 
infant deatlis have been due to premature birth and 
nearly 10 percent to congenital malformations. 'While 
mfant death rates for almost all other causes have been 
reduced sharply since 1900, these two causes have 
remained ahnost unaffected. Unless Icnowledge of 
nutrition and of other factors affecting prenatal growth 
is very greatly increased, there will be Uttle decrease in 
the incidence of premature birtlis and congenital mal- 
formations. Between the ages of 1 and 45, however, 
the irreducible minimum in the Ught of present and 
anticipated future knowledge is lower relative to the 
current level of mortality, and hence large percentage 
decreases stiU appear possible. 

In the medium assumptions the percentage dechnes 
of death rates from 1939-40 to 2000 are approximately 
midway between those of the high and low assumptions. 
They result in an average future lifetime for native 
white males of 68.5 years at birth, 50.8 years at age 20, 
32.0 years at age 40, and 15.3 years at age 60. The 
figm'e for infants is approximately the same as that 
based on the lowest death rates already achieved by a 
State or foreign nation (68.0 and 68.6 years respectively 
(tables A 3 and A 7). At adult ages, however, the 
medium values for future lifetime are less than 
those of the leading States or nations. This difference 
increases with age, the medium expectancy of 15.3 years 
at age 60 comparing with 16.8 years for the low State 
combination, and \vith 17.3 years for the low nations. 

As mentioned earlier, the death rates for native white 
males were used as the basis for obtaining the rates for 
other groups. Three prmciples were followed in this 



12 



National Resources Planning Board 



DE«TH B4TE 
PER IjOOO POP. 



20O 










UND 


ER 1 










100 
80 

60 

40 


^TT 


::-^ 


















-N 




N, 














- 


----0 


~^^- 

^».. 


^^:^ 


ks 




HIGH MORTALITY 


- 


'^. 




^ 


\, 


LOW MORTALITY 

1 1 1 








\., 






















«?,;=;- 








- 




INDIANA 






'" 


^^^^^^^ 






20 


1 . 




NEW ZEALAND 
















AUSTRALIA 














in 


NORWAY 

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 



10 
8 


"-^. 
^ ^ 


~Os. 






1 1 


4 










-\^ 


















- 


^.^ 


-N 


\.\n 














- 


4 
2 


^ 






^^ 












- 


- 




s 




\ 










- 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


"■■^ 


^— _ 










1 


1 


1 






1 


"■|"~- 


— J._. 



6 
4 

2 

10 
8 

6 
4 


- 








5 T 


9 








- 


^r— .«. 


'-■. 


i^^cvv 














- 






"'S 




\ ^ 












- 








"--v 


■^ 








- 


L 










"*^ 


^=^?^ 










- 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


i""" 


•-t 


- 



4 


--.. 


""^ 


^. 




10 T 


14 








- 


2 




-:.T.:^ 


— — -■>, 


^-^, 




^ 


\ 












.8 
.6 

.4 
.2 


- 






'^•^ 


^ 










- 


- 












■^" 











- 












''••,^ 









1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


■■-— . 

1 


1 


1 



1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 I960 1970 1980 1990 2000 



OFOTH RATE 
PER IflOO POP 

10 
8 

6 
4 



- ""*"--» 


•.^^ 






20 TO 24 








- 




^\ 














- 






N 


\ 












- 




^ 
^ 


N 










- 










N 


*•», 














- 














•-.. 




- 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 "*• 


-.i. 




20 

10 
8 
6 

4 










40 TO 44 




























- 




-■i^ 


fe^C 














- 


- 




^^ 


■^ — . 


^^'^ 





—— — .— 




: 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 






? 


1 1-- 



20 




-tii^. 


^:rr:--v. 


-- ^71^ 


50 T 


54 


















10 
8 
6 

4 




- 











\ 




' 






I 












"■v.,_ 






- 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 




00 
80 


- 








70 TO 74 








- 










1 








_ 




5:^^ 




f^^-^ 


60 


•i^^T'-J,", 














40 


1 


1 


' 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


t 



200 



100 











75 a 


OVER 










1 


— ""^".ir 


1^5? 


^■:^.='-^ 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 



1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 I960 1970 1960 1990 2000 



Figure 1. — Trend of the death rates of white males in the United States, in selected States, and in foreign countries, 1900 to 1940; 
estimated high, medium, and low mortality trends in the United States, 1940 to 2000. 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



13 



connection. The first is that past differences between 
the death rates of native white, foreign white, and 
colored persons of the same sex are due chiefly to differ- 
ences in socio-economic status rather than to inherent 
biolo<:i('al differences, and hence are subject in large 
measure to liuman control. The secord is that an 
important part of the difference between the death rates 
of males and females of the same race and nativity- 
groups is due to biological differences wliich are not 
subject to this measure of control. Although these two 
principles camiot be proved conclusively, they are 
supported by the available hiformation. The third 
principle is that the larger the dechne in the native 
white death rate, the smaller the diff(>rcntials will 
become. Tins is derived from the first two, for a larger 
decline impUes a greater control, and hence an approach 
tow ard the biological minimum of mortahty. 

In accordance with these principles the foreign-born 
white males and the colored males were assigned death 
rates for the year 2000 which exceeded those of the 
native white males at each age level by a specified frac- 
tion of the corresponding percentage difference in 1939- 
40. In the high assumptions the fraction used was 
three-fom-ths, in the medium assumptions it was one- 
half, and in the low assumptions it was one-fourth. 
The corresponding fractions for years intervening be- 
tween 1940 and 2000 were obtained by straight line 
interpolation. Since the mortality of foreign-bom 
males is lower than that of colored males at the present 
time, this procedure gave death rates for colored males 
which decreased more rapidly than those for the foreign- 



born males, which in turn decreased more rapidly than 
did those of the native white males. 

Death rates for native white, foreign-born wliite, and 
colored females were obtained from the corresponding 
rates for males. In the high mortality assumptions the 
percentage by which the male death rate exceeded the 
female death rate at each age was left unchanged. In 
the medium assumptions it was reduced by one-sixth 
between 1940 and 2000, and in the low assumptions it 
was reduced by one-tiiird. 

An abridged statement of the mortality assumptions, 
m the form of life table functions, is given in tabic 1. 
The net effect of these assumptions is to be seen in the 
tabulated estimates of future population. For example, 
the population given by the medium trend of fertility 
would range from 153,672,000 to 166,164,000 in the 
year 2000, depending on whether the high mortality or 
the low mortality trend was followed. The extreme 
range of mortality assumptions thus gives a difference 
of some twelve and a half miUion inhabitants at the 
end of the century. 

The effect of other mortality trends on the size and 
composition of the future population can be calculated 
roughly by interpolatmg or extrapolating the differences 
between the results obtained imder the tlu-ee sets of 
mortality assmnptions. While it is not expected that 
the actual course of mortality in the future will follow 
the assumed trends, it is believed that it wUl fall be- 
tween the high and the low, being nearest to the medium 
series. 



B. FERTILITY TRENDS, 1940-2000 



Fertility trends in the United States 

It is more difficidt to judge the probable future com-se 
of fertility than it is that of mortality. Wliile it is true 
that considerable fluctuation may still occur in the 
death rate under the conditions of modern civilization, 
notably with the occurrence of epidemics or with the 
outbreak of wars, most changes have occm-red gradu- 
ally with the development of medical and sanitary 
sciences. The birth rate in contrast is capable of con- 
siderable variation, being more directly dependent on 
individual behavior. Changing economic and social 
conditions not only determine the opportunity that 
people have for marrying and for raising families, but 
also mfluence then attitudes toward assuming these 
responsibUities. For this reason an analysis of past 
trends of fertility, while aiding in the formation of opin- 
ion concerning future developments, is not in itself suf- 
ficient but must be supplemented with more information 
on miderlying causes and attitudes than in the case of 
mortality assumptions. 

The recording of births m the United States has been 

53G726— 43 2 



and probably stdl is less complete than the recording of 
deaths. The birth registration area was not formed 
until 1915, at which time it included only 10 States and 
the District of Columbia, growing to 23 States in 1920, 
to 46 in 1930, and becoming Nation-wide in 1933. It 
is only durmg the last decade, then, that bhth data 
have been available for the entire United States. It is 
fortunate, therefore, that another measure of fertility, 
the ratio of children to women as given in the decennial 
census, is available as far back as 1800. In its custom- 
ary form this is expressed as the ratio of the number of 
children under five to women within the childbearing 
period. As such this ratio is based on the bhths m the 
5-year period preceding the census date, and is affected 
by child mortality as well as by fertility. 

Caution must be exercised in the use and uiterpre- 
tation of both birth rates and the ratio of childi'en to 
women, in particular because of some under-registration 
of births and some under-enumeration of young chil- 
dren. According to a comparison between 1940 census 
schedules and birth certificates, approximately 6.2 



14 



National Resources Planning Board 



percent of the white births and 18.1 percent of the 
colored births occurring between December 1, 1939 and 
March 31, 1940 liad not been registered.^ On the basis 
of these figui'es it also appeared that approximately 
13 percent of the white children and 27 percent of the 
colored children under 1 j'^ear of age at the census date 
were not reported to the census enumerators. There 
are in addition considerable differences between States 
in the completeness of birth I'egistration, the estimated 
proportion um-ecorded ranging from 1 percent or less 
in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and 
Minnesota to over 15 percent m South Carolina, 
Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Although the 
hiformation on these matters for years before 1940 is 
mostly indiicct, it shows fauly conclusively that birth 
registration was less complete in 1930 and 1920 than 
at the present time. Much less is known of how the 
proportion of children reported to enumerators has 
varied in the past, but there are reasons for believing 
that here, too, there has been improvement. 

The ratio of children to women for census years from 
1800 to date shows clearty that the long-time trend of 
fertility in the United States has been downward and 
that a gi-eat decrease has occurred. In 1800 there 
were approximately 1,342 children under 5 for every 
1,000 women age 20 to 44. The ratio continued 
to fall thereafter to 1,085 in 1840, to 780 in 1880, to 
604 in 1920, and to 426 in 1940 (see table B 1). The 
last figure is less than half of that for 1860, and less 
than one-third that for the begmning of the nineteenth 
century. Actually the drop m fertility is greater than 
these figm'cs mdicate for durmg the period there has 
been a decrease of over 80 percent in infant and child 



2 See section C for a discussion of assumptions ^ ith respect to the under -registration 
of births and of infant deaths and tlie under-enumcration of ciiildren. See also Mtal 
Stalistks-Special Report, Vol. 17, No. 18, April 1943. 



mortality. The ratios can be computed for Negroes 
from 1850 to date, and show that Negi-o fertility has 
dropped bj' more than 50 percent during this period, a 
decrease almost as great as that for white women. 

As far back as the ratios go there have been large 
regional differences in fertility. In 1795-99 the fer- 
tility of white women was highest in the East North 
Central States (1,918), and lowest in New England 
(1,164). In 1935-39 it was highest in the East South 
Central States (559), and lowest in the Middle Atlantic 
States (339). In both instances the low regional ratio 
of children to women was almost exactly three-fifths of 
the high. In general each region has followed the same 
trend as the Nation as a whole, with the more urban 
and hidustrial regions leading the way and the more 
rural and agricultural regions following them with a 
lag of some 50 to 80 years. The Nation has usually 
been from 30 to 50 years behind the region with the 
lowest fertility. This lag has narrowed in recent years, 
however, for the low fertility level of the Pacific States 
during 1915-19 was reached by the national averages 
early in the 1930 decade. 

A much more accurate idea of fertility trends since 
1920 is given by birth rates by age of mother; that is, 
the number of births per thousand women aged 15-19, 
20-24, and so on up to 45-49. Adding these rates and 
dividing by 10 gives the average niunber of children 
born to 100 women living up to age 50. Multiplymg 
this figure by the percent of babies which are girls 
gives the gross reproduction rate, a convenient measure 
of fertility. 

From the end of the demobilization after World 
War I to the worst year of the depression there was a 
large and almost uninterrupted drop in the gross repro- 
duction rate. In 1921 the rate for native white women 
in the bu-th registration area was 139, while by 1933 



Table B 1.^ — Number of Children Under 5 Years of Age ■per 1,000 Women SO-44 Years of Age, United Slates and Regions, 1800 to 1940 ' 





XInited 

States 


New 
England 


Middle 
Atlantic 


White women 


East 
South 
Central 


West 
South 
Central 


Mountain 


PaciQc 


Native 
white 
women 
United 
States 


Necro 


Year 


East 
North 
Central 


West 

North 
Central 


South 
Atlantic 


women 
United 
States 


1800 - 


1,342 

1,358 

1, 295 

1,145 

1,085 

892 

905 

814 

780 

685 

666 

631 

604 

.506 

426 


1,164 
1,111 
980 
826 
770 
630 
639 
664 
620 
456 
497 
605 
543 
467 
366 


1,334 

1, 3l->5 

1,244 

1,044 

951 

776 

784 

702 

648 

563 

567 

6,54 

662 

447 

339 


1,918 

1,777 

1,683 

1,473 

1,280 

1,037 

1,016 

892 

781 

668 

620 

676 

570 

482 

412 




1,402 

1.382 

1,330 

1, 189 

1,162 

957 

illO 

833 

879 

802 

SD2 

780 

720 

618 

479 


1,875 

1,794 

1,708 

1, 530 

1.424 

1,115 

1,056 

922 

952 

873 

865 

836 

760 

680 

559 












1810 


1,915 

1,768 

1, 086 

1, 446 

1, 122 

1,118 

1,012 

930 

797 

731 

660 

605 

620 

452 


1,446 

1,483 

1,369 

1,310 

1,061 

1, 103 

953 

1,066 

994 

942 

861 

706 

686 

497 










1820 --- 










1830 










1S40 - 










1850 


87.5 
1,054 
982 
892 
770 
742 
6S0 
686 
582 
558 


896 
1. 035 
916 
808 
600 
632 
478 
447 
357 
,162 




1,087 


I860 




1,072 


1870 - 




9D7 


1880 




1,090 


1890 




930 


1900 




846 


1910 


594 
555 
499 


736 


1920 


608 


1930 --- 


554 


1940 .- - - 


629 







1 In an attempt to improve the comparability of white and Xogro ratios, all ratios have been adjusted for uudcrenumeration. and all except those for whites in 1800 to 1820 have 
been standardized to the age distribution of United States women in 1930. The number of white children 0-4 enumerated has been increased by 5 percent, and of Negro children 
by 11 percent in the North. Vi.5 percent in the South, 8 percent in the West, and 13 percent in tlie United States, these being factors obtained from a study of data for 192.V30. 

1 At the time of writlDE the white children under 5 in 1940 have not been distributed according to nativity of mother by the Bureau of the Census. However, the ratio for 
native white womm 20—14 in 1940 should be only slightly less than that for all white women, because such a small proportion of the latter were foreign born. Ratios for divisions 
in 1940 are computed from proUminary data. 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



15 



it was only 103 (sec table B 2). If allowance is made 
for the addition of liiglily fertile States to the area 
during these years the decline is found to be at least 
20 percent larger. Since 1933, however, there has been 
a reversal of this trend, the gross reproduction rate for 
1941 being approximately 114 and tlint for 1942, 125. 
The latter figure is more than 20 percent al)ove 1933, 
and higher than for any year since 1925. 

Table B 2. — Nvmber of Births per 1,000 Native While Women, 
by Age, in the Birth Registration Area, 1930-41* 

AGE OF MOTHER 



Year 



1920 

1921 

1922 

1923 

1924 

1925 

1925 

1926 

1927 

1928 

1929 

1930 

191S-21 5 

1930 

1931 

1932 

1933 

1934 

1935 

1936 

1937 

1938 

1939 

1940 

1941 



16-19 



20-24 


25-29 


30-34 


35-39 


40-44 



Gross 
repro- 
duction 
rates 



Birth registration area of 1920 ' 



46 


151 


151 


112 


74 


29 


50 


152 


154 


115 


75 


29 


46 


140 


146 


109 


69 


27 


46 


140 


146 


111 


69 


27 


4R 


142 


144 


112 


69 


27 


47 


135 


139 


107 


66 


26 



137 
139 
131 
131 
132 
126 



Birth registration area of 1925 ' 



4S 


137 


140 


108 


66 


26 


46 


133 


134 


104 


63 


25 


47 


134 


132 


102 


63 


24 


45 


130 


127 


96 


60 


23 


42 


126 


123 


89 


66 


21 


42 


126 


123 


89 


65 


21 



128 
123 
122 
117 
111 
111 



United States 



52 


160 


157 


121 


83 


33 


4X 


134 


127 


94 


59 


23 


45 


128 


122 


88 


67 


22 


44 


124 


118 


84 


54 


21 


41 


116 


113 


79 


61 


20 


43 


122 


117 


81 


60 


20 


43 


123 


115 


78 


49 


19 


43 


124 


114 


77 


47 


18 


46 


127 


116 


78 


45 


17 


46 


132 


120 


80 


45 


16 


46 


127 


119 


80 


44 


16 


46 


132 


124 


83 


45 


16 


47 


142 


131 


86 


47 


14 



148 
118 
113 
109 
103 
106 
106 
103 
104 
107 
105 
108 
114 



•Registered births have been adjusted to allow for incomplete registration. 

' Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New 
York, Peimsylvania, Vermont. District of Columbia. Maryland, Indiana, Kansas, 
Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, Cali- 
fornia, Oregon, and Nebraska. Maine omitted because of lack of age data. 

• Khode Island, Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey. Illinois, Montana, Wyoming, 
Florida, Iowa, North Dakota, and West Virginia plus the States in note •- 

3 For method of estimating see "Population Statistics — State Data," National 
Resources Committee, Washington, G. P. 0., October 1937. 

Wide differences are found in the trends of the bhth 
rates for native white women by 5-year groups within 
the childbearLng period. Rates for the younger 
women (ages 15-29) did not decline as rapidly as those 
for the older women (ages 30-44) and rose more 
rapidly after 1933. In fact, during the last 5 years the 
fertility of those 15-19 was almost as high as during the 
early 1920's. In contrast the birth rates for women 
30-34 did not stop declining mitU 1936, and those for 
women 35-39, and 40^4 were lowest in 1939 and 1941 
respectively. The percentage change from 1921 to 
1941 varied directly M'ith age, women in the age group 
15-19 bearing children at nearly the same rate in the 
latter year as in the former, but the rate for these aged 
40-44 being cut to less than half. 



Table B 3. — Nvmhcr of Births l>y Order, per 1,000 Native White 

Woimn 15-J,d, in the Birth Registration Area, 1930-40* 

OUDEIt OF BlHTn 















6th 


8th 


Year 


1st 


2d 


3d 


4th 


6th 


and 
7th 


and 
over 



1920. 
1921. 
1922. 
1923. 
1924. 
1925 

1926. 
1926. 
1927. 
1928. 
1929. 
1930. 

1930. 
1931. 
1932. 
1933. 
1934. 
1935. 
1936. 
1937. 
1938. 
1939. 
1S40. 



Birth registration area of 1920 ' 



29.5 
30.3 
26.6 
26.9 
27.0 
29.5 



19.8 


13.4 


8.9 


6.0 


7.1 


19.7 


13.6 


9.3 


6.2 


7.3 


20.2 


12.0 


8.5 


5.7 


6.8 


20.4 


12.8 


8.5 


5.8 


6.8 


19.7 


13.1 


8.4 


8.7 


6.7 


18.9 


12.6 


8.1 


5.4 


6.4 



6.4 
6.0 
6.2 
6.3 
.5.3 
5.0 



Birth registration area of 1925 ' 



26.3 


19.1 


12.7 


8.2 


5.4 


6.4 


25.3 


18.6 


12.0 


7.9 


6.2 


6.1 


25. 4 


18.3 


11.8 


7.8 


5.1 


6.1 


24,7 


17.6 


11.3 


7.3 


4.8 


5.7 


23.9 


16.8 


10. 


6.8 


4.6 


5.3 


24.4 


16.8 


10.4 


6.7 


4.4 


5.2 



5.0 
4.8 
4.8 
4.5 
4.2 
4.0 



United States 



25. 5 


17.5 


24.2 


16.8 


23.2 


16.3 


21.9 


15.4 


2:1.7 


16.8 


24.8 


16.5 


2.5.0 


15.8 


26. 2 


16.3 


27.4 


17.2 


26.8 


17.3 


27.4 


18.4 



11.0 
10.5 
10.2 



9.2 
9.0 
8.9 
9.2 
9.1 
9.6 



7.2 
6.8 
6.6 
6.2 
6.2 
6.9 
6.6 
5.4 
5.4 
5.2 
6.3 



4.9 
4.6 
4.4 
4.1 
4.1 
3.9 
3.6 
3.5 
3.4 
3.3 
3.2 



5.8 
5.4 
5.3 
4.9 
4.8 
4.6 
4.2 
4.1 
4.0 
3.7 
3.6 



4.6 
4.3 
4.2 
3.9 
3.9 
3.7 
3.4 
3.3 
3.2 
2.9 
2.9 



•Registered births have been adjusted to allow for incomplete registration. 

» Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, 
New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, District of Columbia, Maryland, Indiana, 
Kansas. Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, 
California, Oregon, and Nebraska. 

2 Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey, Illinois, Montana, Wyoming, Florida, Iowa, 
Nortti Dakota, and West Virginia, plus the States in note 1. Rhode Island omitted 
because of lack of data on order of birth. 

Data on order of bhth show a corresponding diver- 
gence of trends. The rate for first births to native 
white women in the childbearing period dropped about 
one-third between 1921 and 1933, but by 1942 it had 
regained much of the loss (see table B 3). For second 
births the decline was somewhat smaller on a relative 
basis, as was also the subsequent recovery. For third, 
fourth, and later children, however, the decline con- 
tinued longer and increased in relative size as order of 
birth rose. The downward trend of the rate for thiid 
births did not stop until 1937, for fourth births until 

1939, and for higher birth orders may not have stopped 
even now. Moreover, births of fifth and subsec|uent 
children now occur at less than half the rate of 20 years 
ago. 

Birth rates between 1920 and 1940 by age of mother 
can also be used to ascertain the average nimiber of 
children ever born to women aged 35-39 or younger ui 

1940. For example, adding births in 1935 per hundred 
women aged 15, births in 1936 per 100 women aged 16, 
and so on up to 1939 wUl give the nmnber of births 
prior to 1940 per hundred women aged 19-20 at the 
beginning of that year. Carrying out this process by 
age group shows that 100 women aged 35-39 m 1940 
had borne approximately 23 children when they were 
between 15 and 20, 91 by the time they were 20-24, 



16 

Table B 4. — A'umbcr of Live Births up to Specified Age to 100 
Native M'hite Women, by Age in 1940 ' 



National Resources Planning Board 

Table B 5. — Distrihulion of Native White Women Aged 35-39 in, 
1940 by Number of Children i 





Live births to 100 native white women up to age — 




15-19 


20-24 


25-29 


30-34 


35-39 


16-19 


23 
21 
24 
23 
23 










20-24 


88 
85 
90 
91 








25-29 


147 
147 
165 






30-34 


189 
195 




36-39 , - 


217 







' Computed by the Scrippf! Foundation for Research in Population Problems 
from birih rates for the current birth reeistration area, adjusted for the incomplete 
recording of births. Because several States with hiph birlb rates were not in the 
registration area during much of the 1920 decade, births to women 30-34 in 1940 prob- 
ably are low by 1 to 10, and births to women 36-39 probably are low by 1 to 12. 

155 by age 25-29, 195 by age 30-34, and 217 by age 
35-39 (see table B 4). Because of the declining birth 
rates mentioned above, younger women have fallen 
somewhat behmd the pace set by this older age group. 
Thus 100 women aged 25-29 in 1940 had borne a total 
of 147 children on the average, compared with 155 
for the older women when they were in the same age 
group. Since the recent rise in birth rates has had little 
effect on those at ages over 30, it is probable that a 
similar comparison in 1945 would show wider differ- 
ences between these two groups of women. The" sig- 
nificance of these declines in fertility can be seen from 
the fact that with the present level of mortality 100 
women hving to age 50 must bear approxhnately 222 
children if population numbers are to be mamtamed.' 
The native white women who were aged 35 to 39 in 
1940 will exceed this requu-ement slightly, but the 
younger women will fall below this fertility quota unless 
their birth rates rise substantially above those prevailing 
m 1940. 

One reason that the average number of births to each 
100 native white women aged 35-39 in 1940 was barely 
above the replacement level was the large proportion 
of the women who had borne no children or only one. 
Birth data by age of mother and order of bu-th for 
the period 1920 to 1940 show that approximately 27 
percent of the native white women who were between 
the ages of 35 and 40 in 1940 had borne no children, 19 
percent had borne only 1, 20 percent had borne 2, 13 
percent had borne 3, 12 percent had borne 4 or 5, and 
only 9 percent had borne a larger number of children. 
Many of the childless women were unmarried, but even 
among the married women approximately 16 percent 
had never liad a child (see table B 5). 

Since 1920 regional differences in age-specific birth 
rates of native white women have resembled the cor- 
responding differences in the ratios of children to 
women. In 1940 the highest birth rates for mothers 
aged 15-19 and 30-44 were to be found in the East 





Percent who had borne- 


Marital status 


No 
chil- 
dren 


1 child 


2 chil- 
dren 


3 chil- 
dren 


4 or 5 
chil- 
dren 


6 or 7 
chil- 
dren 


8 or 
more 
chil- 
dren 




27 
16 


19 
22 


20 
23 


13 
15 


12 
14 


6 
6 


4 


Married women 


4 



' Computed by the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems 
from birth rates for the current birth registration area, adjusted for the incomplete 
recording of births. Because several States with high birth rates were not in the 
registration area during much nf the 1920 decade, the riercentages of women with 
"no" or "1" child are slightly high and with 4 or more cnildren are slightly low. It 
is estimated that over 11 percent of the native white women 35-39 in 1940 had not 
been married up to that time. 

South Central States. The highest rates for women in 
their twenties were in the Mountain States, though only 
sUghtly exceeding those for the East South Central 
section of the country. At the other extreme the lowest 
fertility rates for women aged 25 and over were in the 
Pacific Coast States. For women under 25, by far the 
lowest rates were to be found in New England and the 
Middle Atlantic States (see table B 6). A marked 
association is to be observed between high birth rates 
and rural areas, or, conversely, between low birth rates 
and urban areas. 

The tendency has been for the more urban and indus- 
trialized States to lead in the decline of birth rates, and 
for the Nation to follow the same trend with a lag of 
several years. The bu-th rate for the United States in 
1940 was of the same order as that of the Pacific States 
in 1919-21. For women age 20-34 the national trend 

Table B 6. — Number of Births per 1,000 Native White Wojnen, 
by Age, and Gross Reproduction Rates, United Stales by Divi- 
sions, 1918-21, 1929-31 and 1940^ 



• At present death rates a net reproduction rate of 100 requires a gross reproduction 
rate of 108, i. e. the birth of 108 girls to 100 women living through the childhearing 
period. With the present sex ratio at birth, 108 out of each 222 babies of native white 
mothers are girls. 









Births per 1,000 women aged — 




Gross 


Division 


Year 
















duc- 


















tion 






15-19 


20-24 


25-29 


30-34 


35-39 


40-44 


45-49 


rates 


United States 


1918-21 


51.7 


159.6 


157.4 


121.0 


83.0 


33.2 


4.0 


148 




1929-31 


47.2 


130.8 


125.5 


91.4 


58.5 


22.8 


2.4 


116 




1940 


45.3 


131.8 


123.9 


83.0 


44.7 


14.8 


1.4 


108 


New England. 


1918-21 


29.0 


116.8 


132.6 


100.2 


60.0 


19.6 


1.7 


112 




1929-31 


28.1 


106.2 


118.6 


89.2 


51.9 


10.9 


1.2 


100 




1940 


24.3 


101.0 


116 9 


83.3 


40.9 


11.8 


.9 


92 


Middle Atlantic 


1918-21 


38. 1 


132.1 


134.9 


98.5 


61.3 


22.8 


2.7 


119 




1929-31 


32.5 


110.2 


112.2 


78.1 


45.9 


16 3 


1.4 


96 




1940 


24.fi 


99.4 


110.8 


75.6 


36 5 


10.5 


.8 


87 


East North CentraL. 


1918-21 


45.6 


151.6 


147.0 


109.6 


70.8 


27.8 


3.1 


136 




1929-31 


43.1 


126.6 


121.0 


86.1 


53.3 


19.9 


1.9 


110 




1940 


39.8 


128.3 


122.2 


79.3 


41.6 


13.5 


1.1 


103 


West North Central. _ 


1918-21 


42.2 


153.5 


161.9 


126.4 


86 6 


36 1 


4.3 


148 




1929-31 


42.3 


130.5 


133.9 


99.6 


64.7 


25.9 


2.7 


121 




1940 


40.7 


1.33. 9 


130.2 


87.7 


49.4 


17.5 


1.8 


112 


South Atlantic. 


1918-21 


70.0 


192.8 


191.9 


1,58. 2 


118.1 


60.2 


6 4 


191 




1929-31 


62.6 


151.5 


142.5 


110.4 


76 6 


32.4 


3.8 


141 




1940 


04.2 


151.1 


128.0 


90.0 


53.7 


20.1 


2.2 


124 


East South Central... 


1918-21 


80.9 


209.1 


203,1 


167.2 


125.7 


54.7 


7.5 


206 




1929-31 


74.5 


168.6 


156.1 


125.0 


88.4 


37.8 


4.5 


159 




1940 


74.6 


168.3 


142.6 


101.7 


66.3 


26 3 


2.8 


141 


West South Central.. 


1918-21 


74.8 


193.0 


179.0 


141.9 


108.2 


45.1 


,5.4 


181 




1929-31 


68. 1 


150.8 


133.4 


99.4 


69.7 


29.2 


3.3 


134 




1940 


71.4 


163.3 


131.4 


8.5,4 


49.3 


17.1 


1 7 


126 


^lountain 


1918-21 
1929-31 


56.8 
61.4 


198.1 
172.0 


178 6 
152.1 


135.7 
108.2 


97.7 
72.4 


42.4 
29.5 


5.8 
.3.4 


173 




145 




1940 


64.9 


178.9 


14S.7 


97.fi 


55.9 


20.5 


2.1 


138 


Pacific - . --. 


1918-21 
1929-31 


47.3 
40.8 


138.8 
106 5 


122.4 
89.1 


84.9 
67.8 


49.7 
3L0 


17.7 
10.6 


1.8 
.9 


112 




82 




1940 


47.9 


134.8 


110.3 


64.3 


27.7 


7.2 


.6 


95 



' For 1918-21 and J929-31 see "Population Statistics— State Data," National Re- 
sotu-ces Committee, Washington, G. P. O., October 1937. 



Estimates oj Future Population of the United States, 1940-SOOO 



17 



has lagged from 10 to 20 years behind that for New 
England and the Middle Atlantic States. At older ages 
(35-44) the lag has been Jess than 10 years, while under 
age 20 it has been in excess of 20 years. If sunilar rela- 
tions hold in the future, the downward trend of the 
national birth rate would bring it between 1950 and 
1960 to the present level in New England and tlie 
Middle Atlantic States. The gross reproduction rate 
of native white women would then be approximately 
80; in other words, 100 women living to age 50 woiJd 
on the average have 165 children. To maintain a 
stationary population at 1950-60 death rates would 
require a gross reproduction rate of 105 to 107, or an 
average of 216 to 220 births to each 100 women living 
through the reproductive period. 

Fertility trends in other countries 

A marked decline of fertility is not peculiar to the 
United States, but has occurred in most of the coimtries 
of Western civilization. In some of them the birth 
rates began to decrease early in the nineteenth centmy; 
in nearly aL the rates have fallen rapidly during the 
last 20 years. Accurate figures are not available for all 
countries and for all years, but those that are available 
show the downward trend in unmistakable terms. 



Table B 7. — Gross 


Reproduction 
Selected 1 


Rates 
ears 


of Certain Countries, 


Country 


Before World 
Warli 


Soon after 
World War I " 


Latest 


years ^ 




Years 


Rate 


Years 


Rate 


Years 


Rate 


Oceania; 


1908-13 
1911-15 

1871-76 
1871-75 
1871-75 
1878-84 


168 
154 

221 
215 
239 
220 


1920-22 
1921-22 

1920-21 
1921-25 
1921-30 
1921-25 
1930-31 
1920-22 
1920-25 
1924-26 
1921-25 
1928 

1930-31 

1922 

1920-21 

1927-28 

1921-26 

1921 

1925 

1918-21 


152 
144 

168 
124 
140 
138 
143 
135 
120 
112 
158 
97 

187 
200 
183 
195 
250 
188 
260 
148 


1938-39 
1939-40 

1938-39 
1937-38 
1938-39 
1939^0 
1938-39 

1937 
1935-36 
1939^0 

1934 
1935-36 

1940 
1935-37 
1937-38 
1933-36 
1933-36 
1938-39 

1937 

1941 


108 


New Zealand 


123 


Northern and western 
Europe: 


92 


Sweden 


86 


Finland 


122 


Denmark - ... 


106 




128 


England and Wales 






88 




1892-97 
1881-90 


145 
246 


100 




112 




104 


Austria. 


1895-1900 


248 


77 


Southern and eastern 
Europe: 


154 


Italy 






143 


Hungary 


1900-1901 


260 


120 


Poland 


148 


Bulgaria . ._ . 


1901-5 


318 


167 


Union of South Africa 3 


149 








215 


United States ' 






114 











I From Kucz>Tisfci, Robert R.: "The Measurement of Population Growth," 
London, Sid^wick and Jackson, Ltd., 1935, p. 122-124. 

1 From "Population Index," School of Public AlTairs. Princeton University and 
Population Association of America, Inc., April 1941, p. 145-150. 

3 White persons only. 

' From table B 2. 

Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Bulgaria illustrate what 
has taken place in countries that still maiiitain a rela- 
tively high fertility. In Italy the gross reproduction 
rate declined from 200 in 1922 to 143 in 1935-37 (see 
table B 7). Information for Poland begins with 1927- 
28, at which time the gross reproduction rate was 195. 



By 1933-36 it had fallen to 148. Reductions of much 
the same order occurred in Portugal and Bulgaria. 

The declines have been correspondingly largo in the 
countries which now have lower fertility. In Hungary 
the gross reproduction rate of 120 in 1937-38 was less 
than half the rate of 260 in 1900-01. In Australia the 
decline was from 168 in 1908-13 to 105 in 1932-36. 
Even in France, which is usually thought of as having 
had a low birth rate for many decades, there was a 
decrease from 145 in 1892-97 to 100 in 1935-36. The 
largest decrease occurred in Austria, from 248 in 1895- 
1900 to only 77 in 1935-36. 

There was a post-depression increase of fertility in a 
few foreign countries as well as in the United States. 
In Sweden the gross reproduction rate declined from 
215 in 1871-75 to 160 in 1911-15 and then to 82 in 
1933-35, but rose slightly to 88 in 1938. Norway and 
Denmark displayed similar trends. In Germany a de- 
cline in the gross reproduction rate from 246 in 1881-90 
to approximately 84 in 1930-33 was followed by a rise 
to appro.ximately 1 12 in 1939-40. This rise in Germany 
may be attributable at least in part to the various 
measures adopted to increase family size, but in New 
Zealand, with no such program, a decrease of the gross 
reproduction rate from 154 in 1911-15 down to 102 in 
1935-36 was followed by an mcrease to 129 in 1940. 

To sum up the experience of other countries, a do\vn- 
ward trend in fertility has been the almost universal 
rule. Upswings have rarely occurred during the years 
for which reliable records are available. Except for 
those upswings of short duration which followed World 
War I, they are limited to the recent post-depression 
gains in a few countries and to the increase which accom- 
panied the onset of the present conflict. 

The outlooI( for the birth rate in the United States 

The situation with regard to the trends of fertility in 
the United States can be summarized from the fore- 
going account as follows. 

Since the earliest period covered by vital records, 
around the beginning of the nineteenth centmy, there 
has been a steady decline of fertility in the United 
States as measured by the ratio of children under 5 to 
women in the childbearing age period. The fertility 
of Negroes, at least after 1850, seems to have followed 
a parallel course. 

Fertility has declined throughout the United States, 
but there have continued to be wide regional differ- 
ences. In recent years the fertility of white women 
has been highest in the East South Central States, 
lowest in the Middle Atlantic States. 

The downward trend of fertility appeared first in 
the more urban and industrial sections of the Nation, 
but the rural and agricultiu-al areas have followed the 
same trend, though with a lag of some 50 to 80 years. 



J8 



National Resources Planning Board 



The downward trend of fertility has been greater 
thai\ average among women of 30 and over, and less 
than average among women 15 to 30, resulting in a 
greater concentration of childbearing at the earlier ages. 

It remains to be seen what are the implications of 
these observations for the future course of fertility m 
the United States. If the long-time trends were to be 
followed, the birth rate of the country would soon be 
carried well below the replacement level. Fortunately, 
however, events of the past few years have given evi- 
dence that fertility trends are not irreversible, for as 
noted above there has been a definite uptiu-n since 
1933 and a sharp if perhaps only temporary rise with 
the onset of war. This upturn during the past decade 
may eventually prove to be no more than an interrup- 
tion of the trend, but nevertheless it serves to indicate 
that the observed movements of fertility must be inter- 
preted with reference to then' underlying causes, not 
simply their direction of change. 

Without attempting to summarize the evidence, it 
can be concluded that the decline in fertility that has 
occurred in the past is not due to any biological change 
such as an increase in the incidence of sterility or a re- 
duction in the capacity for childbearing.* The indica- 
tion is that complete sterility does not occur in more 
than 8 or 9 percent of the white couples in the popula- 
tion as a whole, a frequency much too low to account for 
any considerable part of the great decrease of fertility 
that has occurred. Comparison of groups of high and 
of low fertility tloes not reveal any innate difference 
in childbearing capacity. 

The theory has been advanced that an increase in 
the number of induced abortions has been an important 
contributory cause of the decline of births. Without 
attempting to minimize the serious effects of such inter- 
ruptions of pregnancy, it may be said that what little 
information is available indicates that these do not 
occm" with sufficient frequency to accoimt for a majoi- 
reduction in the birth rate, and that there has been no 
demonstrable iixcrease in their frequency in recent 
decades. 

Another factor to be dismissed in like fashion is that 
of accidents of pregnancy. The effect of advances in 
prenatal care, in fact, has been such as to tend to raise 
rather than to lower the birth rate, by leducing the 
amount of pregnancy wastage. Wliile it is true, as 
mentioned above, that little reduction has been effected 
in neonatal mortality from congenital malformations 

* See Pear!, Ra^inond: The Natural History of Population, New York, Oxford 
University Press, 1939, p. 334, for material bearing on the eonelusion that there has 
been no significant change in childbearing capacity for a century or more. Evidence 
that sterility is not sufficiently prevalent to account for the decline of the birth rate 
in recent decades is given by as yet unpublished data of the Indianapolis study of 
the Committee on the Social and Psychological Factors .\aecting Fertility. This 
study is sponsored by the Milbank Memorial Fund, with the support of the Carnegie 
Corporation of America. Members of the committee are Lowell J. Reed, Daniel 
Katz, E. Lowell Kelly, Clyde V. Kiser, Frank Lorimer. Frank W. Notestein, Fred- 
erick Osbora, S. A. Switzer, Warren S. Thompson, and P. K. Wbelpton. 



and premature birth, it is undoubtedly true that im- 
provements in maternal care and nutrition have made 
it possible to bruig a larger proportion of all concep- 
tions to term than was formerly the case. 



Table B 8.- 



-Proportion of Native White Persons Who Had Ever 
Married, by Sex, by Age, 1S90-1030 ■ 



FEMALES 



Year 


15-19 


20-24 


25-29 


30-34 


35-i4 


1890 ._ 


8.9 
10.4 
10.9 
11.7 
11.9 


46.4 
46.4 
48. 7 
51.1 
62.3 


73.4 
70.8 
73.1 
74.6 
77.3 


83.9 
81.8 
82.3 
83.2 

85.7 


89.2 


1900 


87.6 


11(10 


87.1 


1920 


87.1 


1930... 


88.9 







MALES 



1890. 
1900- 
1910- 
1920- 
1930. 



0.6 


17.8 


54.0 


74.2 


1.0 


20.9 


53.4 


72.2 


1.6 


24.2 


57.7 


74.2 


2.1 


27.8 


60.7 


76.7 


1.7 


2S.0 


63.9 


79.7 



85.6 
83.3 
83.1 
84.1 
86.3 



1 Taken from current census volumes. 

Another possible cause of the decline hi the rate of 
births to native white women in the United States 
is a less favorable pattern of marriage, such as a de- 
crease in tlie proportion of persons who marry or a 
postponement of marriage until later years of life. 
Census data indicate, however, that no such unfavor- 
able developments .occurred from 1890 to 1930 (see 
table B 8). During this period there was a substan- 
tial increase in the proportion married among native 
white males in their twenties and among native white 
females under age 30, and to a lesser extent the same 
was true for higher age gi-oups. In short, the trend 
diu-ing these decades was toward a lower average age 
at first marriage and a higher proportion of persons 
marryuig before middle age. Such changes had the 
tendency to increase birth I'ates rather than to lower 
them. 

Estimates of the number of marriages in each year 
since 1910, made by the Bureau of the Census, show 
that large fluctuations occurred at certain periods. 
During the first World War the marriage rate * declined 
to a low of 83 in 1918, the year the army was largest, 
then rose to a high of 104 in 1920 immediately after 
demobilization (see table B 9). During the prosperous 
decade of the 1920's the marriage rate fluctuated be- 
tween 86 and 97, the general trend being slightly 
downward. During the first part of the depression 
(1930-32) the rate fell rapidly, reaching a low point of 
69 in 1932, after which it returned to 96 in 1937 as 
economic conditions improved. From 1939-41 thei'e 
was another sharp rise, presumably due to general 
economic improvement and the inuninence of war. 
The 1941 marriage rate of nearly 109 was well above 

' The term "marriage rate" as used here refers to the number of marriages per 
1,000 women aged 17 to 29, inclusive, this being the age range within which most 
women marry. 



Estimates of Future Pojnilation oj the United States, 1940-2000 



19 



the liiglicst known for any precediiic; year, but may 
have been surpassed in 1942. 

If there had been no depression and recovery (hii-ing 
the 1930's it is probable that the marriage rate would 
have continued about as it was during 1925 to 1929. 
The number of marriages that would have occurred 
each year under such conditions is shown in the column 
"Expected Marriages" of table B 9, and represents 

Table B 9. — Marriage Rate, Achial Number of Marriages, Ex- 
pected Nvmber of Marriages and Excess of Expected Over Actual 
Number, 1915-41 





Marriage 
rate i 


Actual 
marriages ' 


Expected 
marriages " 


Expected minus actual 


Year 


Amount ' 


Cumula- 
tive * 


1910 


84.8 
8i7 
88-2 
88.9 
88.5 
8(i.2 
91.3 
96.3 
83.4 
95.2 
104.2 
93- 8 
9D. 1 
96. 3 
91.5 
90.5 
90.4 
89.0 
86.5 
89.0 
80.4 
<S.9 
68.8 
76.2 
89.6 
90.5 
92.5 
96.4 
87.6 
90.6 
102.2 
108.7 


Tliousands 
948 
955 
1,005 
1,021 
1,025 
1,008 
1,076 
1,144 
1,000 
1,150 
1,274 
1,164 
1,134 
1,230 
1,185 
1,188 
1,203 
1,201 
1,182 
1,233 
1,127 
1,061 
982 
1,098 
1,302 
1,327 
1,369 
1,438 
1,319 
1,375 
1,565 
1,679 


Thousands 


Thousands 


Thousands 


19H 








1912 








1913 








1914 








1915 
















1917 








1918 








1919 








1920 








1921 
















1923 
















1925 
















1927 
















1929 








1930- - 


1,249 
1,260 
1, 272 
l!284 
1,295 
1,307 
1,318 
1.330 
1,341 
1,353 
1,364 
1,376 


122 
199 
290 
ISR 

-20 
-51 
-108 
22 
-22 
-201 
-303 


122 


1931 . 


321 


1932- 


611 


1933- - - . 


797 


1934 -- 


790 


1935 


770 


1936- - 


719 


1937 


6n 


1938- 

1939 


633 
611 


1940 


410 


1941 


107 







1 The number of marriages per 1,000 women aged 17 to 29. inclusive. This age period 
is u-sed as a base because it contained over 75 percent of all the v.-omen marr.ving in the 
marriage registration area in 1939 and 1940, and a substantially higher percent of 
the women marrying for the first time. 

2 From Vital Statistics— Special Reports, Bureau of the Census, Vol. 15, No. 13, 
p. 141, (Feb. 20, 1942). 

' Computed on the basis that the marriaee rate for each year from 1930 to 1941 would 
equal the average rate for 1925-29, i. r.. 89.1. 
' The number of marriages expected minus the actual number. 
• The sum of the annual deficit up to and including the year specified. 

what might be called the normal trend. The depres- 
sion reduced marriages far below normal in each year 
from 1930 to 1933, the maximum "deficit" being 
290,000 in 1932. By the end of 1933 the cumulative 
"deficit" of marriages amounted to 02. 1 percent of 
a year's cjuota. Since 1934, however, the actual num- 
ber of marriages has exceeded the "expected" number 
in every year except 1938, and the "deficit" has almost 
been wiped out. This does not prove that all the 
people who postponed marriage during the depression 
years have now married. On the contrary, it is prob- 
able that a considerable number will never marry, or 
will not do so for several years to come. OlFscttuig 
this group of postponements, however, are younger 
persons who were able to marry sooner because of 
earlier and more profitable employment or who moved 



their marriage dates ahead for reasons connected with 
the entrance of the United States into the war. 

The year-to-year fluctuations in tlie marriage rate 
since 1929 help gi-eatly in explaining tlie changes in 
birth rates during the sam.e period, particularly in the 
rates for first and second children. There is a. strong 
tendency for a couple to have their first child within 
2 or 3 years after marriage, and their second child 
within another 2 or 3 years. In view of this time 
relation it is surpiising that the drop in the marriage 
rate from 1929 to 1932 and the rise thereafter did not 
cause a larger droj) in the rate of births of first children 
between 1930 and 1933, followed by a larger rise in 
subsequent years. Similarly these fluctuations in the 
marriage rate were large enough to have caused greater 
changes in the rate of births of second children the 
appropriate number of years later. In other words, 
the rise in the birth rate for first, second, and even 
third children wiiich occurred in recent years could 
easily have resulted from changes m the marriage rate 
caused by the depression, the recovery, and the prep- 
arations for war. In view of this fact it is premature 
to say that the rise in the gross reproduction rate since 
1933 indicates that the long-time downward trend in 
fertility has been permanently reversed, or even per- 
manently checked. Such a conclusion must be post- 
poned until the marriage rate is no longer inflated by 
the consummation of marriages that were postponed 
because of the depression or moved ahead because of 
an improvement of income or the imminence of war. 

As stated above, there is reason to believe that little 
if any of the long-time decline of the birth rate m the 
United States can be attributed to a biological change 
in the fecmidity of women, to an increase in the amount 
of sterility, to more induced abortions and accidents of 
pregnancy, or to an increasingly unfavorable pattern 
of marriage. Tliis leads to the conclusion that the long 
continued and general reduction of the birth rate has 
been effected through a wider practice and an intensifi- 
cation of voluntary limitation of family size. The 
evidence in support of this conclusion, it may be said, 
is not only of the negative sort indicated above, but 
is also positive in character.'^ If the unmediate explana- 
tion of the downward trend of fertility lies in this di- 
rection, as seems probable, then the future course of the 
bu-th rate wiU depend on (1) further dissemmation of 



« There is known for example to have been a coiBiderablo increase in the sale of 
contraceptives and an advance in the efficacy of certain of the materials. In addition, 
i, number of studies of special groups have shown that the control of fertility is widely 
practiced, with considerable effect on family size. See for example Pearl, Raymond, 
The Natural History of Population, New York, Oxford University Press, 1939; Stix, 
Eegine K. and Notcstein, Frank W., Controlled Fertility, Baltimore, Williams & 
Wilkins Co., 1940; Bccbe, Gilbert W., Contraception and Fertility in the Southern 
Appalachians, National Committee on Maternal Health, Baltimore, Williams & 
Wilkins Co., 1942. Confirmatory evidence is given by unpublished data from the 
Indianapolis study of the Committee on the Social and Psychological Factors Af- 
fecting Fertility, which demoastrate an inverse relation of family size to the degree 
of control exercised over fertility. 



20 



National Resources Planning Board 



the pattern of control, (2) changes m the number of 
children that couples wish to have, and (3) changes in 
the strength of the inducements to hold family size 
within this number. 

It can probably be taken for granted that uisofar 
as the first of these factors is concerned, the tendency 
wUl be toward a more widespread adoption of the con- 
cept of family limitation. Incident upon the war, 
great shifts of popidation are taking place from one 
section of the United States to another. Numbers of 
men are entering the armed forces, workers and their 
families are going to defense industry, and people from 
areas of traditionally high fertility are coming in con- 
tact with new ways of life. A wider dissemination of 
knowledge of effective control measures is therefore to 
be expected. 

Less can be said of what will in the future come to be 
considered the optimum size of family, and of the nature 
and strength of the inducements to attain but not 
exceed this number. It can be seen that both will 
depend very directly on the nature of the post-war world 
and on the kind of lives that people are able to lead. 
On the success with which solutions are found for the 
international problems of security and the domestic 
problems of economic readjustment after the war will 
depend the willingness of people to undertake the re- 
sponsibilities of marriage and childbearing, the age at 
which they are able to marry, and the number of chil- 
dren they wish to have. The futxire birth rate in the 
United States vriU. certainly be influenced also by the 
internal migration that is both under way at the 
present time and in prospect at the end of the war, for 
these movements distiu-b the local proportions between 
the sexes, take people from areas of high to those of low 
birth rates, and expose many persons to new ideas and 
new ways of life. Thought and behavior with respect 
to reproduction ■will be still further affected if additional 
services and allowances come to be provided for 
families with young children. 

Hypothetical fertility trends, 1940 to 2000 

When all of these matters are taken into account 
there remains little justification for estimating the 
future trend of the birth rate by the extrapolation of 
any curve fitted mathematically to the rates of earlier 
years. Most mathematical extrapolations of past 
trends in the birth rate of the native M^hite population 
would give values for the year 2000 that seem absurdly 
low, being less than a hundred births for each hundred 
women hving through the childbearing period. Such 
declines would assume a considerable increase in the 
proportion of married couples controlling the size of 
their families and a marked decrease in the number of 
children that they wanted. The result would be that 
the couples having no children or only one would out- 



number those with two or more. Such a situation is 
considered improbable. It seems more probable that 
the proportion of married couples wanting two or tlu-ee 
children will remain sufficiently high to prevent such 
large declines in the average niunber of children per 
family and to maintain an average of at least 150 births 
per hundred women living to age 50. This figure is 
taken as the low fertility assumption. It sets the gross 
reproduction rate for 2000 at 7o, the same as that for 
the District of Columbia in 1940, but below the lowest 
state rate for that year (78 in New Jersey). Since a 
gross reproduction rate of 103 to 105 will be needed to 
maintain a stationary population with the expected 
death rates in the year 2000, low fertility would bring 
about a decreasing population, unless offset by inmii- 
gration. 

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the causes 
imderlying the long-continued decline of the birth rate 
will undergo any radical change. At best, then, the 
conditions favoring higher birth rates can be expected 
to do no more than offset the tendency toward further 
dechne. In effect this is to assume that the expected 
increases in the proportion of couples controlling the 
size of their families will be counterbalanced by some 
increase in the average number of children wanted. 
The high fertility assumption, taken on these grounds, 
is that the gross reproduction rate of the native white 
popidation will remain horizontal, fluctuating about 
the 1940-42 value of approximately 113. Since this 
exceeds the replacement level of reproduction, the high 
fertility assumption provides for a continued natural 
increase of the population. 

The high and low assumptions are designed as extreme 
values. More probable, insofar as the immediate 
future can be anticipated, is a course of fertility some- 
where between these extremes. The medium assump- 
tion is in effect that there will be a moderate increase 
in the proportion of married couples restricting the size 
of their families, and that there will be little change in 
the nmnber of children that they want. Under these 
conditions the long-time downward trend in fertUity 
will continue during the next 60 years, but the rate of 
decline will be retarded substantially. Under the 
medium assumption for the birth rate in the year 2000, 
100 native white women living through the cliild- 
bearing period will bear 190 children, and the gross 
reproduction rate will be approximately 92. This 
brings the national gross reproduction rate of the 
native whites to the 1910 level of the New England 
States, well below the rate required for the maintenance 
of a stationary population. Consequently the medimn 
as well as the low fertility assumptions lead eventually 
to a decreasing popidation uidess ofl'set by sufficient 
immigration from abroad. 

In setting the high, medium, and low assumptions 



Estimates of Futvre Population of the United States, 1940-2000 

for the native white birth rates in 2000, allowance was 
made for differences in the fertility trends at the various 
age levels. Thus, in the low assumptions the rate of 
decline from 1940 to 2000 is greatest for women in the 
latter part of the childbearing period, and least for 
those in the first part. Similarly, in the high assump- 
tions there is an increase in the birth rates of women 
aged 15-34, but a decrease in the rates for women 
aged 35-49. In all assumptions the offoct is to con- 
tinue the concentration of reproduction in the age 
period 20-29 (see table B 10). 

Table B 10. — Birth Rates and Ratio of Children to Native White 
Wonien in the United States, 1940 to 2000 

BIRTHS PER 1,000 NATIVE WHITE WOMEN 



21 





1940 


High assumptions 


Medium 
assumptions 


Low assumptions 


Age period 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 

change 

1940- 

2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Percent 

cnange 

1940- 

2000 


1960 1980 


2000 


Percent 

change 

1940- 

2000 


15-19 .. 


45 
132 
124 
S3 
45 
15 


47 
144 
131 
85 
44 
13 


47 
14S 
132 
84 
42 
11 


47 
148 
132 
84 
42 
11 


4 
12 

6 

1 

-7 

-27 


42 
129 
120 
72 
38 
11 


39 

125 
117 
66 
31 
8 


39 
125 
117 
64 
29 
7 


-13 
-5 
-6 
-23 
-36 
-53 


30 
114 
110 
59 
30 
10 


32 
106 
102 
48 
19 
6 


30 
104 
100 
45 
16 
4 


-33 


20-24 


-21 


25-29 . 


-19 


30-34 


-46 


35-39 .. . 


-64 


40^4 


-73 











CHILDREN 0-4 PER 1,000 NATIVE WHITE WOMEN ■ 



20-44 . 



427 459 469 471 



-11 358 308 292 



-32 



' Standardized to the age distribution of aU United States women in 1930. 

The high, medium, and low rates having been deter- 
mined for each age level in 2000, rates for the years 
between 1940 and 2000 were obtained by interpolation 
along a smoothed curve. In nearly all cases it was 
assumed that the rate of change would decrease grad- 
ually, but in sufficient degree to bring the 1995 birth 
rates very close to those for 2000, and to make the trend 
line nearly horizontal thereafter. The resulting trends 
at each age for the three assumptions are shown in 
figure 2. The long-time trend in the ratio of children 
to women is shown in figure 3. 

Fertility trends assumed for foreign-born white 
women and for Negro women were based on those for 
native white women. During recent years the birth 
rates of foreign-bom white women have been decreasing 
faster than those of native white women. It is expected 
that the forces narrowing the differential in the past 
will continue to operate in the future. Birth rates of 
colored women declined more rapidly than those of 
native white women from 1905-9 to 1915-19, and less 
rapidly from 1925-29 to 1935-39. Since the limitation 
of family size is not yet as general in the colored popu- 
lation as among native whites, there is more prospect 
for its extension in the colored group. The result 
woidd be a more marked decrease in the birth rates of 
the colored population than in the rates of the native 
whites. Under the medium assumption, the relative 



BIRTHRATE 
PER 1,000 POP 
60 



30 
200 



^. 


AGED 
15 TO 19 










■ 




v 


V 














"'""•^. 



















1 


""--- 


1 — . — 







100 
200 



\ 


AGED 
20 TO 24 

























'-^, 


"• 


. 











80 



30 



20 



\ 


AGED 
25 TO 29 


*c. - 




























. 









\ 


,30T0 3< 












- 


***^'--H^ 












\ 


AGED 
35 TO 39 




\ 




■ 





- 




\ 






**, 










V 


"^ 



















^ 








^ 


^ 


— 




\ 


AGED 
40T0<M 








\ 


















\.. 


"""^ — 








■^ 




- 














- 








\ 


\ 


\ 




- 


- 


- 


HIGH 

MEOIU 

LOW F 


•ERTILITY 
M FERTIL 
ERTILITY 


TY 


\. 


\ 




^ 












\ 


\ 


















1 


'^..^ 



1920 1930 1940 1950 I9S0 1970 1980 1990 2000 

Figure 2. — Births per" thousand native white women bv age. 
Actual 1920 to 1940, estimated 1945 to 2000 under the assump- 
tions of high, medium, and low fertility. 



22 



National Resources Planning Board 



excess of the birth rates of the foreign-bom whites and 
the colored over those of native white women is reduced 
by fivc-eightlis between 1940 and 2000. Under the 
high assumptions, tiae percentage dili'ercntial is reduced 
by one-half; in the low assumptions, by three-fourths. 

Because birth rates are much more variable and more 
subject to individual control than death rates, the 
actual birth rates of future years can be expected to 
depart more widely from the medium assumptions than 
the actual death rates. Because the range between the 
high and low assumptions is much larger for birth rates 
than for death rates/ however, the probability that the 
actual rates will fall between these extremes appears 
about as great for one as the other. 

It is realized that it may be desirable in some instances 
to ascertain the effect on future population growth of 
birth rate trends other than the high, medium, or low 
assumptions. It is believed that this can be done with 
sufficient accuracy for most purposes by interpolation or 
extrapolation of the differences between the results 
based on these three series. 

' If the medium mortality trend is followed, the estimated population for the year 
2000 ranges from 133,553,000 with low fertility to 190,694,000 with high fertiUty. This 
diflerence of 57,141,000 between the high and low fertility trends with constant mor- 
tality is nearly 5 times the difference of 12,492,000 between the high and low mortality 
trends with constant fertility. 





\ 

\ 
















1000 


























^v*^*"'TE WOMEN 








- 
























600 
500 








\ 








- 








NATIVE WHITE WOMEN- -S^ 




















\ 


V 


















\ 


/^-'"~ 


^— _ 


400 














\ 


' ■\\^MED1UM FERTILITY | 
















'^ 


~- 
















LOW FERTILITY .^...^ 




300 


















1 






















fOO 


1 


' 


i 


t 


1 


1 


1 


1 







Figure 3. — Number of children under five years of age per 
thousand white women 20-44 years of age. Actual 1800 to 
1940, estimated 1945 to 2000 under the assumptions of high, 
medium, and low fertility. 



C. UNDERENUMERATION OF CHILDREN 



After the fertility and mortality assimiptions have 
been made for the period 1940 to 2000, it is necessary 
to know the number of persons to which these rates are 
expected to apply. The most recent census is obviously 
the best source of such information. As mentioned 
above in section B, however, there is a tendency in the 
United States as in other countries for the persons 
seen by the enumerators to fail to report a certain 
number of chOdren under 5 years of age. It is desirable, 
therefore, to make allowance for the children not 
counted in 1940 before estinrating the future population. 

With the information now available, the best method 
of estimating the number of children imder age 5 who 
were not enumerated is to take the number of births 
registered during the 5 years ending on the census date, 
subtract the deaths of these children which occurred 
prior to the census date, and compare the remainder 
thus obtained with the census total for the under- 
5 age group. Greater accuracy is given by this method 
if allowance is made for imregistered births and deaths. 
According to a study made by the Bureau of the Census, 
94 percent of the white births and 82 percent of the 
colored births which occurred from December 1, 1939, to 
March 31, 1940, were registered. Equally reliable 
information is not available for prior years but there are 
indications that birth registration gradually improved 
in completeness from 1935 to 1940. Less is know about 



the proportion of deaths of children under age 5 that 
remained unregistered, but there are reasons for believ- 
ing that death registration has been nearer completeness 
than birth registration. 

In the present report it is assiuned that 93.6 percent 
of the white bh-ths and 81.6 percent of the colored 
births occurring from April 1, 1935 to March 31, 1940, 
were registered and that 96.8 percent of white deaths 
and 90.8 percent of the colored deaths in this group were 
registered.'* On this basis 6.6 percent of the native 
white boys and 6.1 percent of the native white girls 
under 5 years of age on April 1, 1940, were not reported 
to the census enumerators. For the colored children 
mider 5 the percentages are 16 for boys and 14.5 for 
girls. In other words, the number of children under 5 
on April 1, 1940, is assumed to be the number reported 
by the census increased by the following percentages: 
native white boys, 7.1 percent; native white girls, 6.5 
percent; colored boys, 19.0 percent; colored ghls, 16.9 
percent. 

Two estimates of the number of children under 5 
years of age are given in each table of future population 
(tables 2 to 13 inclusive), one in the body of the table 
and one in a separate line beneath. The larger number, 
given at the bottom of each table, represents the 



'•The percent of child deaths not registered is assumed to be half the percent of 
births not registered. 



Estimates oj Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



23 



estimated total miinhor of children aged 0-4 and is 
indicatetl to liave been "adjusted for undcr-enumeration 
of children by census." The smaller number, included 
in tlie body of each table, was obtained by ilecreasing 
the full estimate of the number of children under 5 in 
the proportion that such children were estimated to 
have been missed in the 1940 census. It is this figure 
and the accompanying population total that should be 
compared with census data for 1940 and other years. 
There is evidence that the 1940 census, like those of 
other years and other countries, contained certain other 
discrepancies. For example, it appears that an appre- 
ciable number of young men, aged 18 to 25 or there- 
abouts, were omitted from the census because they were 



"on the move" at the time of the enumeration. Since 
there is little basis for estimating the size of this group, 
no adjustment has been made for it in this report. 
It is also apparent that the 1940 census figures for the 
age groups 60-64 and 65-69 are somewhat in error, an 
important proportion of the persons immediately under 
65 having been reported to the enimierators as 65 or 
older. The most probable explanation is that such 
persons believed that the greater their reported age on 
the census schedules the earlier they could obtain 
benefits under the Social Security program. In any 
event, an adequate basis for estimating this error is 
not available, and no attempt has been made to correct 
the census figures in these age groups. 



D. IMMIGRATION AND FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH 



Immigration to the United States has in the past 
been a major factor in shaping the size and composition 
of the countiy's population, but in recent years the 
volume of immigration has come to be sharply cur- 
tailed by regulation and by unsettled economic and 
political conditions. The demographic effects of earlier 
migration continue to be felt in the form of an upward 
movement of the large body of foreign-born into the 
higher age groups, but within a few decades this group 
will largely disappear unless recruited by new immigra- 
tion (see fig. 4). It remains to be seen if domestic 
opinion in the United States and international condi- 
tions after the war, will again permit a resumption of 
heavy immigi'ation. It may be assumed that there 
will continue to be large numbers of persons desirous 
of taking residence in this country, but until such time 
as national policy with respect to the admission of 
aliens after the war has been determined, no estimates 
can be made of the futiu-e volume of immigration. It 
is possible, however, to estimate the approximate effect 
on the size and composition of the population of the 
United States of an arbitrarily assumed volume of 
immigration. From this specimen projection of popu- 
lation trends, the demographic effects of larger or 
smaller amounts of immigration can be inferred. 

From past experience it is clear that unless immigra- 
tion is prohibited in the years to come its volume w\\\ 
vary widely from year to year, depending on economic 
and political conditions here and abroad. For the 
purpose of estimates of future popidation, however, it 
is necessary to assume some average rate of entrance of 
aliens to this country. The assumption made for this 
report was that immigration would not begin until 1945, 
and that at the end of each succeeding 5-year period 
there would be 500,000 foreign-born persons resident 
in the United States who had entered during that 
interval. This rate of immigration corresponds to 



about two-thirds of the present over-all quota limit. 

Three sets of estimates of future population were 
prepared with allowance for immigration at the above 
rate, based on the assumption of medium mortality in 
combination with high, medium, and low fertility, 
(see tables 4, 8, and 12). The sex and age distribution 
of the new immigrants was taken to be that of those 
arriving during the period 1925 to 1929, the most recent 
years for which there was any considerable volume of 
immigration. For a 5-year period this distribution is 
as follows: 

Distribution of 500,000 Foreign-horn White Immigrants 
[Thousands] 



Age 


Male 


Female 


Age 


Male 


Female 


0-4 


5.6 
18.1 
21.1 
3g.l 
911 
73.4 
30.9 
2.6 
-4.6 
-1.6 


4.0 

8.9 

14.0 

26.1 

54.6 

46.0 

24.8 

14.6 

9.7 

6.9 


50-54 


.6 
.4 
.2 


5.1 


5-9 


55-59 

60-64 

65-69 


4.0 


10-14 _ 


2.6 


15-19 


1.5 


20-24 


70-74 




.9 


25-29 


75-79 




.5 


30-34 


80-84 




.4 


35-39 


85-89 . -_ 




.4 


40-44 

45-49 


Total. -. 






275.0 


225.0 







It is to be noted that a net emigration of males is assumed 
for the age groups 40-44 and 45-49, an outward move- 
ment having occurred at this age level in the base 
period of 1925 to 1929. 

The birth rates and death rates applied to the new 
immigrants were those for the foreign-born white pop- 
ulation. Their American-born children, however, were 
assumed to be subject to the birth rates and death rates 
of the native white population. Any marked changes 
in immigration policy leading to the entry of large 
numbers of aliens having birth rates and death rates 
different than those of the foreign-born now in this 
country would, of course, make necessary a revision of 
these calculations. 



24 



NATIVE 
WHITE 

i COLORED 



D 



FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



1940 
Composition of the Pop- 
ulation 




NATIVE 
WHITE 

I COLORED 



D 



National Resources Planning Board 



Assumptions: 
High Fertility 
Medium Mortality 



FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



4 2 2 4 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 




2 

POPULATION IN 



MALE 



...NATIVE 
2^ WHITE 



D 



COLORED 

FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



FEMALE 



Assumptions: 

Medium Fertility 
Medium Mortality 



MALE 




NATIVE 
WHITE 

I COLORED 

I FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



2 4 

MILLIONS 

FEMALE 

1960 

Assumptions: 
Low Fertility 
Medium Mortality 



2 2 4 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 

MALE FEMALE 

Figure 4. — Composition of the population, 1940 to' 2000, under 

. and no 




8 6 4 2 2 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 
MALE FEMALE 

the assumptions of high, medium, and low fertility, medium mortality> 
immigration. 



Estimates of Future Population oj the United States, 1940-2000 



25 



NATIVE 
WHITE 

I COLORED 

I FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



Assumptions: 
High Fertility 
Medium Mortality 




NATIVE 
WHITE 

COLORED 

FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



1980 
Assumptions: 

Medium Fertility 
Medium Mortality 



4 2 2 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 




MALE 



D 



FEMALE 



NATIVE 
WHITE 

COLORED 

FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



4 2 2 4 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 

MALE FEMALE 



L 



1980 

Assumptions: 
Low Fertility 
Medium Mortality 



8 




J I 



8 



4 2 2 4 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 
MALE FEMALE 

piQUBE 4. — Composition of the population, 1940 to 2000, under the assumptions of high, medium, and low fertility, medium mortality, 

and no immigratloo. 



26 



NationafResources Planning Board 



NATIVE 
WHITE 

COLORED 

FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



2000 
Assumptions: 
High Fertility 
Medium Mortality 




2 2 4 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 

MALE FEMALE 



NATIVE 
WHITE 

I COLORED 

I FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



2000 

Assumptions: 

Medium Fertility 
Medium Mortality 




2 2 4 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 



MALE 



FEMALE 



NATIVE 
WHITE 

;OLORED 

FOREIGN BORN 
WHITE 



Assumptions: 
Low Fertility 
Medium Mortalit}' 




2 2 

POPULATION IN MILLIONS 
MALE FEMALE 

Figure 4. — Composition of the population, 1940 to 2000, under the assumptions of high, medium, and low fertility, medium mortality, 

and no immigration. 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 

E. THE DISTRIBUTION OF WAR LOSSES 



27 



As related to the estimation of future population, 
immigration and war losses present similai' method- 
ological problems, for while it is clear that both will 
directly affect the size and composition of the popu- 
lation of the United States, there is at present little 
basis for the estimation of their future amount and 
effects. For this reason the procedure that was followed 
in dealing with the problem of war losses, parallel to 
that for inmiigration, was to prepare a reasonable but 
hypothetical age distribution for war losses, and to 
provide materials for the revision of the estimates of 
future population when the full toll of casualties is 
known. 

War affects population trends in two ways, first 
through an increase in deaths, secondly through changes 
in the number and the timing of births. Wartime 
mortality might be defined to include only the casualties 
resulting directly from military action, or might be 
broadly interpreted to include deaths in the civilian 
population resulting indirectly from the war, such as 
those attributable to industrial accidents, longer hours 
of employment, or lowered standards of medical care. 
If direct casualties only were taken, estimates of the sex 
and age distribution of wartune deaths would be very 
different for countries subject to the bombing of civilian 
centers than if losses were presumably confined to the 
armed forces. In the latter case the distribution of 
military losses would depend on the age composition of 
the armed forces as set by recruiting and induction 
policy, on the types of military operations, and on the 
duration of the conflict. 

It is obvious from these considerations that only a 
rough estimate of the age distribution of war losses can 
be made, but some estimate is nevertheless needed. 
The procedure followed was to deal only with military 
losses and to base the estimate of their age distribution 
on experience in the previous war. Data for Germany 
and England and Wales were employed as providing the 
most extensive information. The distribution so ob- 
tained was as follows: 



Age group 


Percent of 
all war 
losses 


Age group 


Percent of 
all war 
losses 


17-21 


22.38 
33.94 
21.13 


32-36.. 
37-41.. 
42-46.. 




13.80 


22-26 




6.72 


27-31 




2.03 









Military losses in excess of age 46 were so small as to be 
negligible. These percentages were then used to dis- 
tribute a unit number of losses, the units that were used 
being 100,000 native white males and 10,000 colored 
males. The distribution so obtained was then projected 
forward under medium mortality and three fertility 



assumptions to provide a series of correction tables 
which could be adjusted by an appropriate fraction or 
multiple when the final casualty totals were known, 
then ajiplietl in revision of the estimates of future 
population (see tables 15, 17, and 19). 

Included in the same war loss correction tables was 
allowance for the eventual reduction in the number of 
births because of the smaller nurnber of potential par- 
ents after the war. The procedure followed here was, 
in brief, to translate the unit losses into percentage 
losses in the corresponding age groups of males, reduce 
these percentages to allow for the proportion remaining 
single up to age 55, and then use the reduced percent- 
ages to decrease the bu'tli rates for females in the cor- 
responding age groups. On the basis of the unit num- 
ber of war losses, the following percentages of normal 
birth rates were obtained for native white women of 
the indicated ages. 



Age group 


Percent of 

normal 
birth rate 


Age group 


Percent of 

normal 
birth rate 


15-19 


99.614 
99. 440 
99.687 


30-34 


99.829 


20-24 


35-39 


99.929 


25-29 


40-44 


99.979 









A similar procedure was followed for the revision of the 
estimates of colored fertility. Larger or smaller war 
losses would of course affect the birth rates proportion- 
ately. Since the war loss correction tables are in terms 
of absolute numbers, a direct numerical adjustment to 
the eventual number of losses can be used tlu-oughout. 

The computation of the effect of war losses was 
carried on to the end of the century in the correction 
tables, and therefore secondary effects were set up as 
the wartime and post-war reduction of births came to 
affect the second post-war generation. Because of this 
cumulative effect an uiitial loss of 110,000 during the 
war would be increased to 300,000 by the year 2000 
under the medium assumptions of fertility and mor- 
tality. High fertility would mcrease this to about 
■ 370,000 while low fertility would reduce it to about 
240,000. 

In addition to the military losses during the war and 
the consequent change in the size of the succeeding 
generations, another series of demographic repercus- 
sions will be set up by the disturbance of the course of 
the birth rate during the war period. The onset of 
the present conflict has been accompanied by a sharp 
rise in the marriage rate and the birth rate. Another 
increase in both rates may be expected to follow the 
termination of the war. Intervening between these 
two periods of liigh reproduction there may be an inter- 
val in which the rates fall below the pre-war trend, the 



28 



National Resources Planning Board 



extent of the deficit of birtlis depending among other 
things on the percent of the male popidation in the 
armed forces, practice with respect to the granting of 
furloughs to men in the service, and the course of the 
conflict. In this respect the long-term effect on the 
birth rate will depend quite as much on the duration of 
the war, that is, on the length of the interval separating 
the initial and the post-war peaks of reproduction, as 
on its intensity as measured in terms of military losses. 
A war of short duration might well give a net increase 
of births over the war and immediate post-war period, 
the initial and subsequent rise of births more than 
canceling out any intervening deficit. Since it is not 
unlikely, however, that an actual deficit of births will 
occur before the end of the war, a second set of correc- 
tion tables has been prepared to allow for a wartime 
reduction in the number of births. In form, these 
tables correspond to the war loss correction tables, and 
are designed to be applied in the revision after the war 
of the estimates of future population, taking into account 
the wartime reduction in the number of births. As 
before, the units are 100,000 for the native white pop- 
ulation, 10,000 for the colored. Tliree sets of correc- 
tions are given, for the high, medium, and low fertility 
assumptions, respectively, coupled with medium mor- 
tality (see tables 14, 16, and 18). 

Some care must be exercised in the application of 
these correction tables for birth reduction. For one 
thing, a fall of the birth rate below the inflated level of 
1942 will not necessarily constitute a deficit of bulbs, 
but may be merely a return toward a more normal 
figure. A deficit of births is to be distinguished from a 



postponement of births, for the postponement of a 
number of marriages and bu"ths until after the war 
would merely introduce some irregularity into the age 
distribution of the population without necessarily 
having any permanent effect on the trend of total 
numbers. In effect, then, a wartime deficit of births 
cannot be measured until well into the post-war period, 
at which time it can be seen to what extent any eventual 
decline of births in the late stages of the war has been 
compensated by the higher fertility at the beginning of 
the war and in the immediate post-war period. For 
the purpose of the estimates of future population, a 
wartime deficit of births is to be measured against the 
levels of fertility set by the high, medium, and low- 
fertility assimiptions. Under the three combinations 
of fertility and mortality assumed in tables 14, 16, and 
18, the estimated average number of births per annum 
is as follows (in thousands). 



Medium mortality 


1940-44 


1945-49 


Total 


White 


Colored 


Total 


White 


Colored 


Hiph Fertility- 

Medium Fertility. - 
Low Fertility 


2,719 
2,684 
2.649 


2. 340 
2,310 
2,280 


379 
374 
369 


2.755 
2.621 
2,499 


2.373 
2,258 
2,153 


382 
363 
S46 



The wartime deficit of births is assumed to take place 
in 1944 and 1945. Since the fertility in 1945 may well 
be closer to that of 1944 than to the average figure for 
the later yeai-s, it is believed that the 1940-44 estimated 
average number of births may safely be used as the 
estimate for the year 1945. 



INDICATED POPULATION CHANGES 



F. GROWTH OF TOTAL POPULATION 



The population of continental United States has for 
some time been growing more and more slowly. The 
decennial rate of increase, which was above 30 percent 
for the greater part of the nineteenth century, fell to 
approximately 20 percent around 1900, and was only 
slightly above 7 percent for the most recent intercensal 
period, 1930 to 1940. Under the current trends of 
fertility and mortality, the outlook, unless heavy immi- 
gration is resumed, is for a low rate of increase during 
the next few decades, with perhaps an eventual stabili- 
zation or even decrease of numbers. According to the 
medium assumptions of fertility and mortality, the 
population of the country would grow without the aid 
of immigration to about 151 million in 1960, this being 
a gain of some 20 million, or about 15 percent over the 
1940 census figure. Under the same scries of estimates 
a gain of only about 9 million is anticipated for the 
interval from 1960 to 1980. Soon after this time the 
favorable age composition carried over from the earlier 
period of higher birth rates will have spent its influence, 
and a decline of numbers is anticipated after 1985 (see 
table F 1). 

Divergent trends of total population are given by 
the alternative assumptions of fertility and mortality 
(see fig. 5). The high fertility assumption gives a 
continued upward trend of numbers to the end of the 
century, the figure reached at a given time depending 
on the level of mortality that is assumed. For the 
year 2000 the high fertility assumption gives estimates 
ranging from 185 to 199 million, depending on whether 
a high, medium, or low level of mortality is used in the 
projection. With medium or low fertility, the curve of 
estimated total population continues upward for a time, 
but eventually turns down, regardless of what mor- 
tality is assumed. Under the assumption of medium 
fertility and low mortality, the maximum population is 
almost 168 million in 1990. At the other extreme, low 
fertility and high mortality give a maximum of less 
than 149 million in 1970, followed by a rather rapid 
decrease of numbers. 

It is to be noted that this prospect of an eventual 
cessation of population growth is inherent in the present 
age structure and fertility rates of the population of the 

536726—43 3 



United States. The present age structure, with a 
large proportion of the population in the middle range 
of years, is favorable to a continuance of an excess of 
births over deaths, but with the inevitable ageing of the 
population the balance will tip in the opposite direction, 
a large proportion of elderly people tending to give an 
excess of deaths over births unless a high level of 
fertility is maintained. 

The above figures include no allowance for immigra- 
tion. The effect of an inflow of foreign-born averaging 
100,000 per annum beginning in 1945 is shown by three 
series of estimates included in table F 1. Under 
the medium assumptions, immigration at tliis rate 
would add about 1.7 million to the population by 1960, 
over 4.4 million by 1980, and over 7.2 million. by the 
year 2000, a considerable portion of the latter totals 
being the Anaerican-born children of the immigrants. 
The allowance for immigration, however, does not 
greatly alter the shape of the curves of estimated popu- 

Table F 1. — Estimates of Total Population at 6-Ycar Intervals, 
1045-SOOO 

ASSUMPTIONS 



Fertility 


High 
High 
None 


High 

Medium 

None 


High 
Medium 
UOO, 000 


High 
Low 
None 


Medium 
High 
None 


Medium 






Immigration 


None 


1945 


138, 610 
144, 545 
149, 799 
154, 369 
168, 683 
163, 029 
167, 292 
171,276 
174, 903 
178, 316 
181,697 
185, 140 


138, 651 
144,706 
150, 189 
166, 108 
159,910 
164, 831 
169, 732 
174. 356 
178, 6U 
182, 634 
186, 622 
190, 694 


138,651 
145, 206 
151,272 
166, 841 
162, 334 
167,967 
173.605 
179,001 
184,001 
188,902 
193. 699 
198,561 


138, 721 
145, 006 
150,915 
156,471 
162.080 
167,922 
173, 792 
179, 381 
184, 537 
1S9, 362 
194, 034 
198,700 


138,441 
143. 736 
147. 798 
150. 902 

153. 478 
155, 668 
157. 213 
157,928 
157,850 
157, 163 
156,013 

154, 456 


138, 482 


19.50 

1955 


143. 896 
148, 186 


1960 - - 


151. 616 


1965- 


154. 694 


1970 


167. 442 


1976 


169. .597 


1980 


160, 906 


1985 


161,385 


1990 


161, 209 


1995 


160, 532 


2000 - 


159,420 



Fertility 


Medium 
Medium 
1 100, 000 


Mpdium 
Low 
None 


Low 
High 
None 


Low 

Medium 

None 


Low 
Medium 
1 100,000 


Low 






Immigration... 


None 


1945 


138,482 
144, 396 
149, 262 
153,355 
157,068 
160,494 
163, 339 

165, 358 

166, 559 
167.096 
167, 101 
166,631 


138, 553 
144, 196 
148,911 
153, 006 
156,855 
160, 512 
103,615 
165, 853 
167, 181 
167, 732 
167, 638 
166,982 


138,275 
142, 989 
146, 912 
147,653 
148, 586 
148. 729 
147, 862 
145, 820 
142, 755 
138,851 
134, 250 
129,071 


138, 316 
143, 148 
146, 299 

148, 393 

149, 790 
150, 476 
150, 194 
148, 703 
146, 137 
142, 664 
138, 428 
133,553 


138, 316 

143, 649 
147,368 
150,078 
162.112 
163.438 
153, 798 
162. 957 
161.037 
148. 182 

144. 515 
140. 155 


138, 387 


1950 


143, 44!l 


1966 


147, 023 


1960 


149, 749 


1966 


151. 942 


1970 


153, 627 


1975 


1.54. 173 


1980 


153, ,582 


1985 


151,820 


1990 


149.014 


1995 


145. 278 


2000 


140,750 







.Average net immigration per annum, beginning in 1945. 



29 



30 



National Resources Planning Board 



lation, giving only higher totals and postponing some- 
what the dale of the population maxima. Inunigration 
averaging 100,000 per annimi -would not be sufficient 
to prevent the eventual doAvnward turn of numbers 
with medium or low fertiiitv. A different effect 



would, of course, be produced if the fertility pattern 
of the new immigrants departed widely from that of 
the present foreign-bom population. Reference to the 
effect of war on population trends is made below.' 



* See section J. 



TOTAL POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES 1900-2000 



MILLIONS 
OF PERSONS 

200 



150 



100 



50 




HIGH FERTILITY-MEDIUM MORTALITY 

MEDIUM FERTILITY-MEDIUM MORTALITY 

LOW FERTILITY-MEDIUM MORTALITY 



1900 



1910 



1920 



1930 



1940 



1950 



I960 



1970 



1980 



1990 



2000 



Figure 5. — Trend of the total population. 



Actual 1900 to 1940, estimated 1950 to 2000 under alternative assumptions of fertility 
and mortality. 



G. THE SEX RATIO 



Accompanying the indicated trends of total popula- 
tion, marked changes in the proportion between the 
sexes are in prospect. In the past the sex ratio of the 
population of the United States, expressed as the 
average number of males per hundred females, has been 
largely determined by three major factors, these being 



the greater number of males at bnth, the lower mortality 
rates of females, and the high proportion of males 
among immigrants. Largely because of the latter 
factor, the United States has long maintained a rela- 
tively high sex ratio, attaining a maximum of 106 in 
1910 at which time the census enumerated nearly 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



31 



2,700,000 more males than females. Of this male 
surplus, approximately two-thirds was contributed by 
the foreign-born. With the subsequent decline of im- 
migi'ation, the decrcasino; proportion of children, and 
the gradual ageing of the population, the sex ratio has 
been slowly reduced, falluig to 102.5 in 1930 and to a 
record low of 100.7 m 1940, at which time the recorded 
surplus of males was only about 450,000. 

The near-term outlook, without allowance for immi- 
gration or war losses, is for a continuation of this dowii- 
ward trend of the sex ratio and for a futme population 
containing somewhat more than 50 percent of females. 
Under the medium assumptions of fertiUty and mortal- 
ity, the point of numerical equality between the sexes 
would be reached soon after 1945. Thereafter the sex 
ratio would continue downward under the influence of 
a diminishing proportion ot foreign-born in the popida- 
tion, a diminishing proportion of children, and a high 
proportion of the population in the upper age groups, 
to reach a low pomt of 98.9 between 1965 and 1970. 
Beyond this point a slow rise of the sex ratio is predicted 
under the medium assumptions, with a balance between 
the males and females being regained m 1995. The 
reason for this eventual retmn to an equal or superior 
number of males is to be fomid m the mortality assmnp- 
tions. Since the neonatal mortality of male infants is 
greater than that of females, the effect of the lowered 
infant death rates assumed in the medium mortality 
series is to increase the proportion of males in the lower 
age groups. This increase of the sex ratio in the first 
years of life, together with the lowered mortality rates 
provided for during childhood and early adult life, 



means that the initial surplus of males would be carried 
on into higher age groups, eventually balancing the 
sm'plus of females at the upper ages. This tendency 
is demonstrated by the sex ratio of the estimated popu- 
lation at different age levels. According to the 1940 
census tabulations the sex ratio, which began at 103.2 
for the first 5 j' ears of life, fell steadily in the succeeding 
age groups until the figure of 100 or equality in the 
numbers of males and females vi-as attained for the age 
group 15-19. According to the mediimi assumptions 
this point of equality advances to age 20-24 in 1945, 
to age 25-29 in 1950, and to age 35-39 in 1900. By the 
year 2000 the initial surplus of males at birth would not 
be eliminated by their higher mortality untU the age 
group 55-59 (see table G 1). 

As the above review indicates, the future course of the 
sex ratio is directly a function of the male and female 
difl'erential of mortality. Under the assimiption of 
high mortality the outlook is for a continued surplus 
of females in the total population after about 1950. 
Under the low mortality assumption a slight surplus 
of females would appear around 1950 but would persist 
until only about 1980 or 1985, after which time a sur- 
plus of males woidd again be the rule. 

Extensive immigration would raise the proportion of 
males in the total popidation if the selective factors in 
international migration continued to operate as in the 
past. The hypothetical rate of approximately 100,000 
immigrants per annum, however, woidd produce only 
fractional changes in the sex ratio of the total popula- 
tion. Its effects would of course be most marked at 
certain age levels, notably in the early adult ages. 



Table G 1. — Sex Ratios for the Total Population, the Native While Population, and the Colored Pop 


ulalion, 


by Age, United Slates, 1940-2000 ' 




Total 


Native white 


Colored ' 


Age group 


1940 


19601 


19801 


2'000i 


1940 


1960 > 


1980 3 


20001 


1940 


1960' 


1980 3 


2000 3 


0-4 - - 


103.2 
102.9 
102.7 
100.4 
96.6 
96.5 
98.0 
98.9 
101.2 
104.0 
107.1 
106.3 
102 9 
99.2 
97.9 
92.8 
86.4 
76.1 
67.3 
62.5 


103.9 

104.4 

104.2 

103.9 

103.4 

102.3 

102.0 

99.5 

95.4 

94.8 

95.1 

93.9 

92.8 

91.7 

90.0 

84.5 

77. 1 

70.6 

65.6 

56.2 


104.1 
104.7 
104.6 
104.5 
104.3 
104.0 
103.7 
103.2 
102.5 
101.0 
99.8 
9.'). 9 
89.8 
86.1 
82.0 
70.1 
70.1 
65.4 
BO. 2 
50.9 


104.1 
104. S 
104.7 
104.6 
104.5 
104.4 
104.2 
103.9 
103. 6 
102.9 
101.8 
99.9 
96.9 
92.3 
86.7 
77.8 
67.5 
60.3 
53.2 
41.4 


103.8 
103. 5 
103.3 
101.3 
98. 
98.3 
99.1 
99.5 
100 1 
100.7 
100.9 
100.0 
98-2 
95.8 
94.4 
88.5 
82.7 
75.2 
65.0 
61.5 


104.5 
104. 9 
104.6 
104 3 
103.8 
102.8 
102.4 
100.3 
96.8 
96.5 
96.1 
94.2 
91.4 
88.2 
83.9 
7S.4 
72.3 
67.5 
64.3 
60.0 


104.7 
105.2 
105.0 
104.9 
104.7 
104.4 
104.1 
103. 6 
102. 9 
101. 5 
100.2 
96.4 
90.6 
86.8 
82.0 
75.1 
68.1 
62.4 
57.2 
52.9 


104.8 
105.3 
105.2 
105. 1 
105.0 
104.8 
104.6 
104.4 
104.0 
103.3 
102 1 
100. 
96.8 
92.1 
86.2 
77.6 
67.8 
61.4 
55.8 
50.4 


99.2 
99.0 
99.1 
94.2 
86.5 
88.1 
92.2 
91.4 
99.1 
103.1 

ion. 3 

113.1 
113.1 
107.2 
107.9 

89. 4 


100.2 
101.7 
101.4 
101.2 
100.8 
98. 8 
98. 7 
93.2 
8.5.0 
86.1 
89.4 
87.8 
94 2 
96.3 
98.8 

83.5 


100.6 
102.2 
102.1 
102.0 
101.9 
101.6 
101.2 
100.6 
99.8 
97.5 
96.9 
91.1 
82.9 
82.8 
83.2 

70. S 


100.7 


5-9 


102.4 


10-14 


102.3 


15-19 


102.3 


20-24 - 


102.3 


25-29 - 


102.1 


30-34 


101.9 


35-39 


101.6 


40-44 - 


101.2 


45-49 - - 


100.7 


50-54 


99.9 


55-59 


98.9 


60-64 


98.0 


65-69 . 


94.6 


70-74 - — - 


91.0 


75-79 




80-84 




85-89 


67.7 


90-94 




95 and over .— 




Total 


100.7 


98.9 


99.1 


100.2 


100. 1 


99.2 


99.5 


100.3 


96.7 


98.3 


97. 9 99. 6 



' Ratios computed without adjustment for the underenumeration of young children. 

3 The death rates for the colored population at aees above 75 are so inacciu-ate that the sex ratios resulting from their use are not shown separately. 

3 Estimates based on medium fertility and medium mortality. 



32 



National Resources Plannhig Board 



H. AGE COMPOSITION 



Of more immediate significance than the changing 
rate of population growth are the changes in the age 
structure of the popuhition that are now mider way. 
As compared to many other countries, the United States 
has long possessed a relatively youthful population and 
a high fraction of its inhabitants in the yoimger em- 
ployable ages. It is recognized, however, that this age 
structure has been undergoing a change, with a gradual 
increase in both the number and the proportion of the 
population in the upper age groups. The immediate 
reasons for this shift toward the older ages are several 
in number. For one thing, the steady decrease in the 
birth rate over a considerable period of years has had 
the effect of moving upward the average age of the 
population. The falling off of immigration has had the 
same effect, there no longer being the strong influx of 
people for the most part in early adult Ufe. At the 
same time the large body of foreign-born who arrived 
eai'lier has been moving up into the higher ages. In 
addition these tendencies toward an older population 
have been strongly i-eenforced by the lowering of the 
death rates during the early and middle years of life, 
enabling a larger proportion of the population to survive 
to later life. Since most of these tendencies wiU pre- 
sumably continue for some time to come, the outlook is 
for a continuance of the trend toward an older 
population. 

The rate at which this process of ageing of the popu- 
lation goes on will depend on the present age structui-e 
as well as on futm-e birth rates and death rates. A 
resumption of the dowTiward trend of the bnth rate 
would have the effect of accelerating the trend toward 
an older population by fm'ther reducing the number 
of childien, while a higher level of fertility would serve 
to maintain a more youthful population. 

Median age 

The trend toward an older population is shown by 
the change in the mecUan age of the population, the 
central age above which and below which there are 
equal numbers of people. In 1800 half of the entu-e 
population of the United States was 16 years of age 
or younger. A centmy later the median age had risen 
to almost 23 years, and by 1940 it had reached a new 
high of 29. A further rise of the median age of the 
population is in prospect, the medium assumptions for 
fertility and mortality giving an estimate somewhat in 
excess of 37 years at the end of the present centmy. 
A high level of fertility in combination with medium 
mortality would reduce this figure by between 4 and 
5 years, while a low level of fertility would raise it to 
42. The outlook is in any event for a considerable 
mcrease in the median age of the population (see fig. 6). 



MEOIAN 
AGE 

501 



40 



30 



20 



10 



-L 



J I L. 



-L. 



LOW FERTILITY 
HEOIUM MOHTAUTY_ 



MEDIUM FEBTILITV 
MEDIUM MORTALITY 




HIGH FERTILITY 
MEDIUM MORTALITY 



_l I L. 



IBOO 



1850 



1900 



1950 



2000 



Figure 6. — Trend of the median age of the total population. 
Actual 1800 to 1940, estimated 1950 to 2000 under alternative 
assumptions of fertilit}' and mortality. 

Population age 65 and over 

The age distribution of the estimated futiure popula- 
tion by broad age groups and under two sets of assump- 
tions is given m table H 1 (see also tables 7 and 11). 
According to these estimates the central age groups, 
20-64, wUl remain quite stable in total numbers, al- 
though with a shift toward the upper age limit, but 
marked changes will take place in the highest and 
lowest age groups. Particularly marked is the expected 
increase in the number of persons 65 years of age and 
over. 

Figures 7 and 8 show the trend from 1870 to 1940 in 
the niunber and percent of the total population aged 

Table H 1. — Estimated Number of Persons (in Thousands) in 
Specified Age Groups, 194S-2000 

[Assumptions: Medium fertility, medium mortality, no immigration] 





0-4 


5-19 


20-44 


45-64 


65 and 
over 


Total 
popula- 
tion 


1945. 


12,805 
12, 587 
11,823 
11,370 
11,378 
11,534 
11,422 
11,068 
10, 719 
10,516 
10, 396 
10,228 


33.604 
34, 532 
36. 336 
36. 792 
35.409 
34, 243 
33, 978 
34.044 
33, 747 
32, 947 
32, 056 
31,393 


53,944 
55, 535 
55, 595 

55, 606 

56, 675 
56,938 
57. 057 

57, 726 
57, 813 
56, 716 
55,692 
65,025 


28,211 
30, 315 
32, 183 
34,279 
.36,508 
38,847 
40,029 
39,565 
39,323 
39,935 
40,842 
41, 756 


9.920 
10, 926 
12, 250 
13,598 
14,725 
15,880 
17,109 
18,501 
19, 783 
21,096 
21.546 
21,016 


138,482 


1950. _ 


143,896 


1955 


148, 186 


19(i0 


151, G46 


1965. 


154,694 


1970. 


157, 442 


1975. 


159,697 


1980 


160,906 


1985. 


161,385 


1990 


161,209 


1995- 


160,632 


2000 


169,420 







(Assumptions: Low fertility, medium mortality, no immigration] 





0-4 


5-19 


2^44 


45-64 


65 and 
over 


Total 
popula- 
tion 


1945. 


12,639 
12,003 
10, 677 
9,994 
9,712 
9,451 
8,953 
8,224 
7,615 
7,139 
6,727 
6,310 


33,604 
34, 368 
35, 593 
34, 916 
32, 332 
30,092 
28,896 
27. 877 
26.411 
24. 596 
22,801 
21,319 


53,944 
55, 535 

55. 695 
55,606 

56, 513 
56,204 
56,206 
54, ,'534 
53,008 
.50, 0,53 
47,200 
44,876 


28,211 
30, 315 
32,183 
34. 279 
36.508 
38,847 
40,029 
39,565 
39, 323 
39, 782 
40, 154 
40,031 


9,920 
lU, 926 
12,250 
13, 598 
14,726 
15,880 
17,109 
18,501 
19,783 
21,096 
21,546 
21,016 


138, 316 


1950 


143, 148 


1955.. 


146.299 


1960.. 


148, 393 


1965 


149,790 


1970... 


150, 476 


1975 


150, 194 


1980. 


148,703 


1985- 


146, 137 


1990.. 


142, 664 


1995,. 


138,428 


2000 


133, 553 







Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



33 




950 



2000 



Figure 7. — Trend of the number of persons aged 65 and over. 
Actual 1870 to 1940, estimated 1950 to 2000 under the assump- 
tions of high, mediimi, and low mortality. 



65 and over, together with hypothetical trends up to 
the end of the centuiy. The number of persons 
enumerated in this age group has risen steadily from 
approximately 1,150,000 in 1870 to slightly over 3 
million m 1900, almost 5 million in 1920, and over 9 

PEBCENT 

201 



IS 



10 




LOW FERTILITY 

LOW MORTALITY — «. 

/^ - 
MEDIUM FERTILITY / 

LOW MORTALITV;^ ,. 



MEDIUM FERTILITY 
MEDIUM MORTALITY 



1650 



1900 



1950 



2000 



FiGrRE 8. — Trend of the percent of the total population aged 65 
and over. Actual 1870 to 1940, estimated 1950 to 2000 
under alternative assumptions of fertility and mortality. 



million at the most recent census. The subsequent 
trend to th(^ end of the ccntm-j- will depend entirely ou 
the course of mortality, being unaffected by births after 
the year 1935. On the assumption of a medium mor- 
tality the number in this age group may be e.xpocted to 
attain a maxinmm of somewhat over 21 million by 1990, 
declining only slightly in the following decade. The 
low mortality assumption raises the 2000 estimate to 
well over 25 million. Even under the high mortality 
assumption an eventual population of almost 20 million 
would be attained in the 65-and-over age group. In 
terms of percentage the 65-and-over section of the 
population more than doubled from three percent of 
the total population in 1870 to 6.8 percent in 1940. 
The medium assumptions yield a corresponding figure 
of 13.2 percent at the end of the centmy, compared to 
11 percent under high fertility and medium mortality 
and 15.7 percent under low fertility and medium 
mortality. 

Immigration at an average rate of approximately 
100,000 per annum would have relatively m.mor effect 
on the proportion of the population in the 65-and-over 
age group. Under the medium assumptions immigra- 
tion at the above rate would mcrease the number of 
persons aged 65 or more in the year 2000 by about half 
a million, but at the same time would fractionally 
decrease the percent of the total population in this age 
group. 
Population under five years of age 

The opposite aspect of the ageing of the population 
is the decrease in the proportion of young children. 
In 1870 children under 5 years of age constituted 14.3 
percent of the enumerated population of the United 
States. This percentage declined gradually to 12.1 
percent in 1900, and to 9.3 in 1930. By 1940 only 8 
percent of the population was in the youngest age 
group. Under the medium assumptions a continued 
slow decrease is expected, with a figure of only 5.9 
percent of the enumerated population estimated for 
the end of the century. Low fertility in combination 
with medium mortality would reduce this still further 
to 4.4 percent.* 

■Assuming the same percent of under enumeration of children as estimated for 1940. 



I. COLOR AND NATIVITY 



The estimates of future population were prepared 
separately for native whites, foreign-born whites, and 
colored, and therefore show changes in the relative 
size of these groups under the alternative assumptions 
of fertility and mortality. With respect to the pro- 
portion of foreign-bom, the anticipated changes arise 
largely from the abnormal age distribution of the 
present foreign-born popidation and the assumptions 
regarding futui'e immigration. To a lesser extent the 



changes proceed from the assumption of continuing 
differentials of fertility and mortality between the for- 
eign-born and the native born. Changes in the pro- 
portion of colored in the population arise from the fact- 
that, although it is assumed that the existing differen- 
tials of fertility and mortality will become narrower, the 
differentials are not expected to disappear even by the 
end of the centm-y. 

It must be reemphasized that no attempt was made to 



34 



National Resources Planning Board 



predict the average volume of immigration or the nimi- 
ber of the foreign-born in the United States. The series 
of estunates that uicluded allowance for immigi-ation 
were prepared as specimen computations, to indicate 
the effect on population trends of a unit amount of 
immigration and to permit the estimation of the in- 
fluence of larger or smaller additions to the foreign- 
born population. With these reservations, some com- 
ments can be made on the indicated trends in the 
nimiber and proportion of foreign-born residents in the 
United States. 




1940 



1980 



2000 



Figure 9.^ — Trend of the foreign-born population, 1940 to 2000, 
under alternative mortality assumptions, with and without 
immigration. 



The maximimi niunber of foreign-born ever recorded 
in the United States was appro.ximately 14,200,000 in 
1930. The census of 1940 reported slightly over 11,- 
400,000, the decrease presumably being due for the 
most part to an excess of deaths over immigration 
dm-ing the decade. In view of the heavy concentra- 
tion of the present foreign-born population in the older 
ages, this group will inevitably decrease rapidly over 
the next few decades (see figs. 4 and 9). Under the 
medium assmnption of mortality the present foreign- 
bom group \vill be reduced to 5.9 miUion in 1960, and 
to about 1.7 mUlion ha 1980. Immigration averaging 



about 100,000 per annum would not prevent the initial 
sharp drop m the number of foreign-born but would 
stabilize the number at somewhat under 5 million 
toward the latter part of the centurv'. 

Accompanying the downward trend in the nimiber of 
foreign-born in the United States is a shift of the for- 
eign-born to the older age groups. In 1940, 18 percent 
of the foreign-born were aged 65 or over, compared to 
imder 6 pei'cent of the native white population. Even 
with a resmnption of immigration there will for some 
decades be an increasing concentration of the foreign- 
born at the older ages. 

Table I 1. — Percent Dislrihution of the United Slates Population 
by Color and Nativity, with Selected Immigration Assumptions 
and with Medium Feitility and Mortality, 1940-2000 





1940 


1960 


1980 


2000 


Without immigration: 


81.1 

8.7 
10.2 
100.0 

81.1 

8.7 

10.2 

100.0 

81.1 

8.7 

10.2 

100.0 


85.0 

3.9 

11.1 

100.0 

84.2 

4.9 

10.9 

100.0 

81.1 

8.4 

10.5 

100.0 


86.6 

1.0 

12.4 

100.0 

84.9 

3.0 

12.1 

100. 

79.1 

10.0 

10.9 

100.0 


86.1 




.1 




13.8 


Total 


100.0 


With 100,000 immigrants: i 

Native white . ... 


83.9 




2.9 


Colored 


13.2 


Total 


100.0 


With 500,000 immigrants: ' 


76.9 


Foreign born white. .. ._. 


11.8 


Colored __ 


11.3 


Total 


100.0 







' See section D for the explanation of the method of calculating the increase arising 
from this number of immigrants. 
2 This shows the ellect of the entrance of 5 times as many immigrants as above. 

The medium assumptions provide for a gradual in- 
crease in the colored population from the approximately 
13 K million recorded in the census of 1940 to around 22 
mUUon m the year 2000. The percentage representa- 
tion of the colored in the total population will depend 
somewhat on the volume of immigration, as shown in 
table I 1. Without unmigration, the colored would 
make up 13.8 percent of the extended population at 
the end of the centiu-y. Inunigration averaging around 
100,000 per anniun would reduce this figure to 13.2 
percent. 



J. DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE WAR 



Although the war will have both temporary and last- 
ing effects on trends of population in the United States, 
the extent of these effects and the precise form that 
they will take are largely unpredictable at the present 
time. The most that can be done is to indicate the 
probable dhection of certain of the more readily pre- 
dictable demographic changes, at the same time re- 
membering that these are only a part of the war's 
efi'ects on population. Among the inamediate results 
that can be foreseen, it is obvious that miUtary losses 
wiU dhectly affect population numbers and that these 
losses will be largely concentiated in certain age groups. 



It is also clear that the losses, if of any considerable 
amount, will set up appreciable secondary changes in 
the size of the post-war generations. Irregularities in 
the age distribution wiU be produced by the large 
cohorts of bu-ths at the begiiming of and immediately 
after the war and by any considerable deficit of bhths 
during the intervening period. 

It is possible, without attemptmg to predict the 
extent of these and other anticipated changes, to indi- 
cate the approximate eft'ect of arbitrarily assumed war 
losses and deficits of births. The procedure that was 
followed, as described in section E, was to prepare two 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



35 



sets of correction tables, one set to be used in revising 
the estimates of future population when the total 
nmnber of military losses becomes known at the end 
of the war, the other set to be applied when the net 
deficit of births during the war period can be estimated 
(see tables 14 to 19). Each set of tables was prepared 
in terms of a unit number of military losses or birth 
losses, the units being 100,000 for the white population, 
10,000 for the colored. Both sets of correction factors 
were carried on up to the year 2000 under the assump- 
tion of high, medium, or low fertility in combination 
with medium mortality. 

The population changes indicated by the correction 
tables reflect the assumptions on which the tables were 
based, such as the age distribution of the male losses, 
the continuance of the fertility trends unaltered after 
the war, the same percent of persons eventually marry- 
ing in the post-w"ar as in the prewar period, and so forth. 
Under the medium assumptions the loss of the unit 
number of 110,000 males during the war would be 
gradually increased by the loss of their descendants, to 
diminish the estimated population of the year 2000 by 
300,000. Under the same assumptions a net loss of 
an equal niunber of births durmg the period of the war 
would similarly be augmented to about 240,000 by 
the end of the century. 

The direct war losses, assumed to be confined to 
males within the military age groups, would also disturb 
the sex ratio. Under the assumptions of medium 
fertility, medium mortality, and war losses distributed 
as in the previous war, the unit number of military 
losses would produce the following reduction in the 
number of males per 100 females. 

Sex Ratio — 1945 



Age 
group 


Witbout 
war 
losses 


With 
war 
losses 


De- 
crease 


Age 
group 


Without 
war 
losses 


With 
war 
losses 


De- 
crease 


15-19 

20-24 

25-29 

30-34 


102. 57 
100. 21 
96.33 
96.28 


102. 31 
99.67 
95. 85 
95.96 


0.26 
.54 
.48 
.32 


35-39 

40-44 

45-49 


97.66 
98.28 
100. 00 


97.44 
98.17 
99.98 


0.22 
.08 
.02 



Larger or smaller losses would have proportionally 
greater or less effect on the se.\ ratio. 

Marked fluctuations in the nmnber of births will also 
be produced. If the war continues for some time the 
recoi-d number of ])irths which occurred around 1042 
will be succeeded by a considerable decline of the birth 
rate. Another peak of births will doubtless come after 
the war. As a consequence, school systems that have 
experienced a duninishing enrolhnent over a period of 
years will receive a wave of new pupils around 1945 
to 1947, probably followed within a year or two by a 
marked decrease in the entering group, then by another 
wave beginning about 6 years after the end of the war. 
It can also be foreseen that the burden of new school 
enrollments will be very unecjually distributed between 
different sections of the United States and between 
different types of communities. The burden will fall 
most heavily on communities that have received large 
accessions of war workers and that retain these workers 
for a time after the war. Areas in which the popula- 
tion has been more stable or more concentrated in the 
older age groups will experience little increase of school 
enrollment, and may be able to accommodate any 
increase that occurs within the existhig school facilities. 

Both sets of war loss correction tables provide for a 
decrease in the number of births in the future, in the 
first place because of the loss of potential parents 
dmmg the war, in the second place because of reduc- 
tion in the size of the post-war generation. These 
estimates, however, assume the continuance in the 
post-war period of the high, mediima, and low trends 
of fertility miaffected by the war except for the some- 
what smaller number of parents. It cannot be said 
to what extent the cultural patterns smTounding 
marital relations and the family will be changed after 
the war, but certamly they will be affected indh-ectly 
as well as directly. Some estimates can be made, as 
is done above, of the mfluence of war losses on trends 
of population, but this should not obscure the fact 
that the influence of the conditions of hfe in the post- 
war period will probably outweigh the influence of 
the direct losses. 



IMPLICATIONS OF THE INDICATED POPULATION CHANGES 



Estimates of the future population of the United 
States were published in 1937 in The Problems of a 
Changing Population. The present revised estimates 
are made at an interval of approxunately 5 years later. 
During the intervening years there were significant 
changes in the distribution of fertility and mortality, 
but the outlook for the population of the United 
States remained much the same. Because of the favor- 
able course of mortality and the definite rise of the 
birth rate din-ing these years, the revised estimates 
run appreciably higher than the 1937 figures, yet 
imder most combinations of fertility and mortality 
assimiptions a gradual slowing down and an eventual 
cessation of population growth is stiU to be expected. 
Under certain sets of assmnptions a decline of niunbers 
will set in before the end of the century. In its essen- 
tials this is the population outlook that was presented 
in The Prohlems oj a Changing Population. 

The above refers to the population outlook as it stood 
in the early 1940's, before the outbreak of war. It 
remains to be seen if the pre-war trends of population 
are reestablished following the war or if new trends are 
set up. Any estimates of future population develop- 
ments must therefore be qualified as being conditional 
on the effects of the war. At the same time, however, 
population is possessed of considerable inertia, for al- 
though vital rates change from year to year, the size 
and composition of a population at any given time are 
the composite effect of almost a century of births and 
deaths. This not only means that the direct effects of 
the war will be felt long after it is over; it also means that 
the course of population in the post-war period will 
continue to be strongly influenced by the fluctuations 
of the birth rate that took place during and after 
World War I, by previous immigration, and by other 
vital trends in the pre-war and inter-war period. The 
prospective population changes described in the pre- 
ceding sections are for the most part inherent in the 
' structure of the population as it is now constituted. Un- 
less the war's direct impact on population far exceeds 
anything within the normal range of expectation, its 
effect will be to modify rather than to alter completely 
the demographic changes that are in prospect. 

The basic demographic changes that are to be antic- 
ipated include a slowing down of the rate of natural 
36 



increase, an eventual cessation of population growth or 
even a decline under certain assumptions, and a marked 
change in the age distribution with a relative and ab- 
solute increase in the older ages. The probable social 
and economic consequences of these developments were 
discussed in a previous report, The Problems of a Chang- 
ing Population, but some additional comment can be 
given. 

It is generally believed that a decline in the rate of 
population growth or a cessation of growth would have 
far-reaching social and economic effects. The division 
of the total product of goods and services between the 
classical productive factors of land, labor, and capital 
would theoretically be affected. Per capita production 
might be affected by changes in the intensity of agri- 
culture, in the supply of capital goods per worker, or in 
the strength of the tendency toward a diminishing of 
returns. Other effects of altered rates of population 
increase are ordinarily expected to be felt in terms of 
unemployment, urban and rural land values, the general 
standard of living, the rate of recovery from depression, 
and various other factors. These supposed effects of 
change in population trends, however, are usually based 
on the a,ssumption that all other factors remain con- 
stant while population changes, and this is a condition 
that cannot be achieved in reality. It is more realistic 
to recognize that population changes occur only in con- 
junction with other changes of a social and economic 
character, and that the effects that are produced do not 
result solely from the population factor but rather from 
the total complex of conditions. In this total complex, 
however, population growth or decline may play an 
important part. 

It is seen from the tabulated estimates of future 
population that the prospective changes will not have 
a sudden onset but will take place gradually. They 
are in fact already taking place. It therefore seems 
probable that whatever economic adjustments to the 
altered population situation may be needed can be made 
without any period of sudden and difficult transition, 
provided that they are envisaged and allowed for. It 
has been pointed out that an increase in per capita 
consumption can substitute for an increase of popula- 
tion, by providing an expanding demand for commodi- 
ties. In other respects adjustments to a slowly chang- 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



37 



ing population situation can doubtless be made without 
dislocation of the economic system, especially if the 
need for these adjustments can be anticipated and prep- 
arations made. In any event, it is doubtful if any 
future difficulties that the economic system may en- 
counter will be attributable to po]nilation changes 
alone. At most, population trends may be expected 
to enter in as dynamic and complicating factors. 

Altliough the indicated slowing down of the rate of 
population growth does not determine the pattern of 
future economic developments, various implications of 
this population trend can be pointed out. If the 
population of the country is to grow rather slowly for 
the ne.xt 40 or 50 years, perhaps beginning to decline 
somewhat thereafter, a number of readjustments will 
have to be made. For example, city planning will 
have to proceed more cautiously, for there will no longer 
be the same assurance of a continued growth. There 
will be less justification for the construction of perma- 
nent or semipermanent facilities, such as schools, water 
supplies, and sewerage systems, in excess of present 
needs on the assumption that they will eventually be 
brought into full use by a growing population. The 
per capita burden of long-term indebtedness will not 
be lightened as in the past by an increase in the number 
of taxpayers. Public utility systems will have the 
prospect of a more nearly constant number of customers. 
A similar situation will be faced by industry imless per 
capita consumption can be increased. The invest- 
ment of capital for replacement will become more 
important relative to new investment for the expansion 
of capacity. Improvements in techniques of produc- 
tion and in the output per worker in both agriculture 
and industry will more directly affect the volume of 
available employment than has been true in the past. 

Active changes in the distribution of both population 
and employment will certainly continue in spite of a 
trend toward stationary total numbers. Some areas 
will continue to attract an increasing number of resi- 
dents, while other communities will decline in popula- 
tion. Regional differences in the rate of natural in- 
crease will persist, changing further the distribution 
of population and occasioning an active interstate and 
interregional migration. Changes in the location of 
industry and in the distribution of employment 
according to industry will likewise continue to cause 
shifts of population. It is in fact to be anticipated 
that a slowing down of the rate of population growth 
will considerably increase the relative importance of 
interregional movements of population. 

It is probable that changes in the rate of population 
growth are of considerably less immediate significance 
than the accompanying changes in age composition. 
As outlined in section H above, the long-term trend is 
toward a decreasing proportion of children and an 

536726 O - 43 - 4 



increasing proportion of aged in the population. The 
immediate implications of this ageing of the population 
are for the most i)art apparent. With this change in 
the age composition of the population will doubtless 
come shifts in the distribution of the demand for 
commodities and services. Goods which children con- 
sume will become a steadily decreasing proportion of 
all consumer goods as children become a smaller and 
smaller proportion of the population. On the other 
hand there should not be much change in the propor- 
tion of our consumption in the most vigorous adult 
group, while there will be a very great and continuous 
increase in the demands of the middle-aged and older 
groups. There can be little doubt that these changes 
in the relative importance of different age groups will 
alter considerably our productive enterprise in the 
future. There will similarly be changes in amuse- 
ment and recreational preferences. Diseases and infir- 
mities of later life will come to demand a greater share 
of medical services, and there will be an expanding 
need for institutional facilities for the care of the aged. 
The changing age distribution will be directly reflected 
by the demands made on the Spcial Security system. 

The catalog of the social, economic, and political 
consequences of an ageing population could be carried 
further, but for the most part these consequences 
follow quite directly from the changing age structure. 
The effects of the indicated population trends on the 
labor force of the United States, however, deserve 
special mention. In the early stages of the process at 
least, a declining fertility and an ageing population 
increase the fraction of the total population in the 
employable ages. If the age group from 15 to 65 is 
taken to include the bulk of all employables, then 57.7 
percent of the population was of employable age in 
1870. By 1900 this had increased to 61.3 percent, 
and in 1940 it was 68.1 percent. Under the medium 
assumptions of fertility and mortality this proportion 
would remain almost constant, declining only frac- 
tionally to 67.8 percent in the year 2000. A low level 
of fertility would raise this figure only several units, 
while a high level of fertility would reduce it by about 
the same amount. The outlook for the balance of the 
present century, therefore, is for a higher fraction of 
the population within the employable age group than 
during the nineteenth century. 

Even though the proportion of the population be- 
tween 15 and 65 years of age is to remain relatively high 
and stable for some years to come, there will be a 
considerable change in the age distribution within this 
group. In 1870 only 20.6 percent of the persons between 
15 and 65 were 45 years of age or over. By 1940 this 
figure had risen to about 29 percent. Under the 
medium assumptions it will continue upward, reaching 
almost 39 percent by the year 2000. As compared to the 



38 



National ReKources Planning Board 



present figure, this represents an increase of about om- 
third in the proportion of older workers. It can tiicrc- 
fore be foreseen that the problem of the older worker 
will take on added importance in the future. Industry 
may be forced to employ a g;reater proportion of workers 
over 45 yeais of age as the supply of younger workers 
becomes relatively more limited and as the supply of 
older workei-s increases. Other adjustments in pro- 
ductive enterprise will be made necessary by the 
changing age structure of the labor force, as well as by 
the associated changes in the demands for commodities. 
In general, it is to be observed that although changes 
now under way in the structure and composition of the 
population of the United States do not in themselves 
necessarily determine the direction to be taken by social 
and economic events in the immediate future, they do 
nevertheless have the widest miplications, and present 
situations for which many adjustments and new provi- 
sions may be necessary. Some of the more significant 
aspects of the prospective changes have been referred 
to above. Others can be inferred directly from the 
estimates of future population. In addition to the 
changing age structure and rate of popidation growth, 



the sex ratio and the color and nativity composition 
of the population will be undergoing gradual changes, 
and each will have its direct aiul indirect consequences. 
Finally, without attempting to indicate all the 
possible eft'ects of current population trends, it can be 
emphasized that estimates of future population are an 
essential basis for a wide range of planning activities, 
both public and private, wliether national, State, or 
local in scale. On the changing size, age structure, and 
composition of the population of the United States will 
depend in large measure the national manpower re- 
sources, the future needs for public utilities, housing 
and school facilities, and the nature and distribution 
of the demand for commodities and services, as well as 
in some measure the dimensions of the future probl(>ms 
of employment. It is therefore in the national uiterest 
to give careful attention to population trends, and to 
recognize that the prospective changes in the size and » 
composition of the population are both a reflection of 
the many social, economic, political, and other develop- 
ments that are taking place, and a major source of 
further change. 



Estimates of Future PopuhiHoii of the I'ttitcd States, 191,0-2000 



Table 1 - U. S. Abrideed Life Tables 1959-40, and Hypotheticrl Tnblea 
For Future Years Assuming High, Medium and Low Mortality Trends. 

Annual Rate of Mortality oer thousand (1000 qx) 



Native White Kalea 



Exact Age in Years* 








1 


2 


5 


10 20 30 


40 


SO 


60 


70 


80 


1939-40 


47.4 


5.0 


2.6 


1.3 


1.1 2.2 2.9 
High Mortality Trends 


5.4 


11.6 


25.5 


54.8 


126.6 


1960 


29.6 


3.0 


1.6 


.8 


.7 1.4 2.0 


4.0 


10.4 


25.2 


54.8 


126.7 


1980 


26.9 


2.8 


1.5 


.9 


.7 1.3 1.9 


3.7 


10.1 


25.1 


54.8 


126.6 


2000 


26.1 


3.0 


1.6 


.8 


.7 1.3 1.9 
Medium Mortality Trends 


3.6 


10.1 


25.1 


54.8 


126.6 


1960 


29.3 


5.0 


1.6 


.8 


.6 1.2 1.8 


3.4 


8.5 


23.1 


54.1 


126.6 


1960 


23.2 


2.4 


1.3 


.6 


.5 1.0 1.4 


2.8 


7.3 


21.1 


53.8 


126.6 


2000 


21.3 


2.2 


1.2 


.6 


.5 .8 1.3 
Low Mortality Trends 


2.7 


7-1 


20.8 


53.9 


126.6 


1960 


29.1 


3.0 


1.6 


.7 


.6 1.1 1.6 


3.0 


6.7 


18.7 


45.3 


122.1 


1980 


21.2 


2.2 


1.2 


.5 


.4 .7 1.1 


2.1 


«.6 


13.2 


41.1 


120.8 


2000 


19.0 


1.7 


.9 


.4 


.3 .5 .9 


1.8 


4.6 


12.2 


40.3 


130.7 



39 



Hative Wnite Females 



1939-40 


57.3 


4.4 


2.3 


1.0 


1960 


25.4 


2.7 


1.4 


.6 


1980 


20.6 


2.6 


1.4 


.6 


2000 


20.4 


2.6 


1.3 


.6 


1960 


23.3 


2.7 


1.4 


.6 


1980 


18.7 


2.1 


1.1 


.5 


2000 


17.5 


2.0 


1.0 


.5 


1960 


23.3 


2.7 


1.4 


.6 


1980 


18.0 


1.8 


.9 


.4 


2000 


16.3 


1.6 


.8 


.3 



.8 1.5 2.3 3.9 7.7 17.0 
High Mortality Trends 

.5 1.0 1.6 2.9 , 6.9 16.8 

.5 .9 1.5 2.7 6.7 16.7 

.5 .9 1.5 2.6 6.7 16.8 
Medium Mortr.llty Trends 

.5 .9 1.5 2.6 5.8 16.0 

.4 .7 1.2 2.1 6.1 15.1 

.4 .6 1.1 2.0 5.1 15.0 
Low Mortality Trends 

.4 .8 1.3 3.3 4.7 13.2 

.3 .5 .9 1.7 3.6 9.8 

.2 .4 .8 1.5 3.5 9.5 



43.0 

42.0 
42.0 
42.0 

42.0 
42.1 
42.2 

36.1 
34.3 
34.3 



108.5 

108.5 
108.5 
108.5 

108.6 
108.7 
108.7 

107.5 
107.9 
108.4 



Number of Survivors out of 10,000 born alive (1x1 



Hative White Males 



195S-40 

1960 
1980 • 
2000 





10000 

10000 
10000 
10000 



1 

9526 

9704 
9731 
9739 



1960 10000 9707 

1980 10000 9766 

2000 10000 9787 

1960 10000 9709 

1980 10000 9788 

2000 10000 9810 



Exact Age in Years. 

2 5 10 20 30 40 
9479 9419 9361 9225 8998 8664 

High Mortality Trends 
9674 9637 9600 9508 9551 9103 
9704 9670 9635 9549 9405 9174 
9710 9674 9658 9553 9412 9183 

Medium Mortality Trends 
9678 9641 9606 9525 9384 9159 
9745 9715 9686 9624 9513 9330 
9765 9737 9710 9654 9552 9380 

Low Mortality Trends 
9680 9643 9611 9537 9410 9306 
9767 9740 9718 9673 9592 9451 
9793 9772 9753 9718 9652 9532 



50 


60 


70 


80 


8022 


6757 


4649 


1929 


8544 


7259 


4997 


2073 


6645 


7566 


5070 


2104 


8662 


7364 


5080 


2108 


8703 


7555 


5295 


2200 


8943 


7899 


5610 


2330 


9006 


7974 


5675 


2355 


8818 


7864 


5944 


2683 


9163 


8472 


6791 


3165 


9258 


8601 


6981 


3278 



Native Rhlte Females 



1939-40 


10000 


9627 


9585 


9536 


9491 
High 


1960 


10000 


9766 


9740 


9709 


9680 


1980 


10000 


9794 


9768 


9738 


9711 


2000 


10000 


9796 


9770 


9740 


9713 
Medium 


1960 


10000 


9767 


9741 


9710 


9682 


1980 


10000 


9813 


9792 


9767 


9744 


2000 


10000 


9825 


9806 


9782 


9760 
Low 1 


1960 


10000 


9767 


9741 


9710 


9684 


1980 


10000 


9830 


9803 


9762 


9764 


2000 


10000 


9838 


9822 


9803 


9786 



9395 9319 8953 8491 7598 5842 2895 

Ifortallty Trends 

9616 9495 9299 8903 8010 6161 3054 

9651 9540 9358 8982 8098 6229 3087 

9654 9545 9365 6995 8112 6238 3092 

Mortality Trends 

9623 9513 9332 8999 8181 6321 3128 

9698 9609 9460 9173 8411 6527 3226 

9718 9635 9494 9313 8453 6561 3238 
Mortality Trends 

9630 9539 9363 9076 8388 6821 3529 

9729 9663 9545 9322 8798 7406 3854 

9759 9703 9601 9381 8866 7491 3896 



40 



National Resources Planning Board 



Table 1 - U. S. Abridged Life Tnblee 1939-40, and Hynothetlcpl Tables 
F or Future Years AasuBlng High, Medium add low Morte.llty Trends 

Stationary Population In Age Period (ui) 



Native White Males 



Under 1 


1-2 


2-5 


5-9 


1939-40 


9602 


9499 


28336 


46844 


1960 


9751 


9687 


28961 


48030 


1980 


9774 


9716 


2«^56 


48202 


2000 


9781 


9723 


29069 


482P0 


1960 


9754 


9691 


28973 


48055 


1980 


9805 


9755 


29185 


48452 


2000 


9821 


9774 


29242 


48570 


1960 


9756 


9692 


28978 


48069 


1980 


9822 


9776 


29256 


48597 


2000 


9841 


9801 


29344 


48769 



Age Period (Interval between 2 exact ages) 



10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 
46675 45859 44644 43694 

High Mortality Trends 
47914 47358 46504 45029 
48092 47579 46791 45414 
48109 47602 46824 45460 

MedlTun Mortality Trends 
47954 47465 46696 45359 
48373 47999 47390 46290 
48496 48157 47595 46566 

Low Mortality Trends 
47983 47542 46848 45632 
48547 48280 47826 46977 
48732 48521 48148 47423 



50-54 


60-t.4 


70-74 


80-84 


38859 


31504 


19958 


6773 


41506 


?3866 


21454 


7281 


43026 


34367 


21772 


7389 


42106 


34436 


21810 


7401 


42506 


35408 


22762 


7725 


43821 


37241 


24120 


8186 


44137 


37609 


24381 


8268 


43280 


37214 


26197 


9508 


45218 


40820 


30199 


11214 


45716 


41564 


30997 


11569 



Native White Feraales 

1939-40 9691 9603 

1960 9806 9751 
1980 9829 9779 
2000 9831 9782 



1960 
1980 
2000 

1960 
1980 
2000 



9806 9752 

9845 9801 

9855 9814 

9806 9752 

9851 9810 

9865 9829 



■28671 47482 47365 46784 45813 44303 

High Mortality Trends 
29167 48422 48342 47949 47272 46142 
29353 48573 48496 48134 47510 46455 
29260 48587 48510 48152 47636 44493 

Medium Mortality Trends 
29169 48427 48355 47999 47378 46335 
29334 46734 48675 46397 47S97 47028 
29377 48814 48759 48503 48037 47214 

Low Mortality Trends 
29169 48430 48368 48043 47476 46515 
29372 48823 48786 4a579 48200 47508 
29434 48959 48910 4a740 48420 47811 



41580 36246 25942 10608 



43676 


38229 


27362 


11188 


44090 


38647 


27661 


11311 


44151 


38703 


27701 


11327 


44283 


39109 


28063 


11475 


45217 


40314 


28966 


11844 


45409 


40510 


29106 


11902 


44796 


40330 


30804 


12898 


46159 


42788 


53560 


14053 


46455 


43156 


33849 


14174 



Ijatlve White Males 



Average Future Lifetime (ex) 








1 


2 


5 


1939-40 


62.6 


64.7 


64.0 


61.4 


1960 


65.6 


66.5 


65.7 


53.0 


1980 


66.1 


66.9 


66.1 


63.3 


2000 


66.2 


66.9 


66.1 


63.4 


1960 


66.6 


67.6 


66.8 


64.0 


1980 


68.1 


68.7 


67.9 


65.1 


2000 


68.5 


69.0 


68.1 


65.3 


1960 


68.3 


69.3 


68.5 


65.8 


1980 


71.3 


71.9 


71.0 


68.2 


2000 


72.1 


72.5 


71.6 


68.7 



Exact Age In Years. 

10 20 30 

56.8 47.6 38.6 
High Mortality Trends 

58.2 48.7 39.5 

58.5 49.0 39.7 

58.6 49.1 39.7 
Medium Mortality Trends 

59.3 49.7 40.4 
60.5 50.7 41.2 
60.5 50.8 41.3 
Low Mortality Trends 
61.0 51.4 42,1 

65.4 53.7 44.1 

63.9 54.1 44.4 



40 


50 


60 


70 


80 


29.9 


21.8 


14.9 


9.2 


5.2 


30.4 


22.0 


14.9 


9.2 


5.2 


SO. 6 


22.1 


14.9 


9.2 


5.2 


30.6 


22.1 


14.9 


9.2 


5.2 


31.2 


22.6 


15.1 


9.3 


5.2 


31.9 


23.0 


15.3 


9.3 


5.2 


32.0 


23.1 


15.3 


9.2 


5.2 


32.9 


24.1 


16.3 


9.8 


5.2 


34.6 


25.5 


17.1 


10.0 


5.2 


34.9 


25.8 


17.3 


10,0 


5.2 



Native Vhite Females 
1939-40 67.1 66.7 



68.0 



65.4 



1960 


69.6 


70.2 


69.4 


66.6 


1980 


70.0 


70,5 


69.7 


66.9 


2000 


70.1 


70.5 


69.7 


66.9 


1960 


70.1 


70.8 


70.0 


67.2 


1980 


71.3 


71,6 


70.8 


67.9 


2000 


71.5 


71.8 


70.9 


68.1 


1960 


71.4 


72.1 


71.3 


68.6 


1980 


73.6 


73,9 


73,1 


70.2 


2000 


74.0 


74.2 


73,3 


70.4 



60.7 51.2 42.1 
High Mortality Trends 

61.8 52.2 42. a 
62.1 52.4 43.0 
62.1 52.5 43.0 

Medium Mortality Trends 
62.4 52.8 43.3 

63.1 53.4 43.8 

63.2 55,5 43,9 
Low Mortality Trends 

63.7 54.1 44.6 

65.3 55.6 45.9 
66.6 55.7 46.0 



33.2 



24.7 



17.0 10.4 5.6 



33.6 


24.8 


17.0 


10.4 


5.6 


33.7 


24.9 


17.0 


10.4 


5.6 


33.7 


24.9 


17.0 


10.4 


5.6 


34.0 


25.1 


17.0 


10.4 


5.6 


34.4 


25.3 


17.1 


10.4 


5.6 


34.4 


25.3 


17.1 


10.4 


5.6 


35.3 


26.2 


17.9 


10.7 


5.6 


36,4 


27.1 


18.4 


10.7 


5.6 


36.5 


27.2 


18.4 


10.7 


5.6 



1 



Estimates of Future Population oi the Vnited States, 1940-2000 

Table 1 (Continued) - jj. S. Abridged Life Tables 1939-40, and Hypothetical Tables 
For Future Vears Assuming High, Medium and Lov/ (■tortality Treads. 

Annual Rate of Mortality ner thousand (1000 qx) 



41 



Colored Males 
1939-40 

1960 

1980 
2000 

1960 
19B0 
2000 

1960 
1980 
2000 



10 



Kxact Age in Years. 



20 



30 



40 



50 



74.6 10.2 4.7 1.8 1.7 6.0 9.7 15.0 27.6 

High Mortality Trends 
3.7 6.3 10.6 23.6 

3.2 5.5 9.2 21.7 
3.0 5.1 8.5 20.4 

Medium Mortality Trends 
3.0 5.2 8.5 17.9 
2.0 3.5 6.1 13.7 
1.6 2.8 5.0 12.0 
Low Mortality Trends 
2.6 4.4 7.1 13.7 

1.3 2.3 4.0 8.1 
.7 1.4 2.7 6.2 



45.0 


6.0 


2.7 


1.1 


1.1 


38.9 


5.6 


2,6 


1.0 


1.0 


37.2 


5.5 


2.5 


1.0 


1.0 


42.9 


5.7 


2.6 


1.0 


.9 


31.9 


4.0 


1.9 


.8 


.7 


27.5 


3.4 


1.6 


.7 


.6 


41.7 


5.5 


2.5 


.9 


.8 


28.0 


2.9 


1.4 


.6 


.5 


21.8 


2.2 


1.1 


.4 


.3 



.0 


70 


80 


r3.2 


62.9 


109.5 


41.3 


62.9 


109.9 


39.9 


62.8 


110.2 


38.8 


62.7 


111.1 


35.9 


60.3 


110.3 


30.5 


59.7 


110.9 


28.3 


59.4 


111.6 


28.3 


50.2 


108.2 


17.6 


44.1 


108.6 


14.3 


41.9 


109.7 



Colored Females 



1939-40 


59.6 


8.4 


4.0 


1.5 


1.4 


1960 


36.0 


5.0 


2; 3 


.9 


.9 


1980 


31.0 


4.7 


2.3 


.8 


.8 


2000 


29.7 


4.4 


2.1 


.8 


.8 


1960 


34.8 


4.8 


2.2 


.9 


1 

.8 


1980 


26.4 


3.4 


1.7 


.7 


.6 


2000 


22.9 


2.9 


1.4 


.6 


.5 


1960 


34.1 


4.7 


2.2 


.8 


.7 


1980 


23.7 


2.5 


1.3 


.5 


.4 


2000 


18.9 


2.0 


1.0 


.4 


.3 



5.9 8.5 13.4 24.1 
High Mortality Trends 
3.7 5.5 9.5 20.7 

3.2 4.8 8.2 19.0 
3.0 4.4 7.6 17.8 

Medium Mortality Trends 
3.0 4.6 7.7 16.0 
2.0 3.1 5.6 12.5 
1.6 2.5 4.6 11.0 
Low Mortality Trends 
2.6 5,9 6.4 12.3 

1.3 2,0 3.6 7.3 
.7 1.2 2.5 5.7 



40.1 52. a 



84.2 



38.4 


52.8 


84.6 


37.1 


52.7 


84.9 


36.0 


52.6 


85.8 


33.8 


52.5 


84.8 


28.9 


52.4 


85.5 


26.6 


52.6 


86.0 


26.5 


43.3 


83.9 


16.9 


39.1 


85.1 


13.7 


37.3 


86.4 



Number of SurviTors out of 10,000 born aliTe(l3t) 



Colored Males 








1 


2 


5 


1939-40 


10000 


9254 


9160 


9070 


1960 


10000 


9550 


9493 


9436 


1980 


10000 


9611 


9558 


9504 


2000 


10000 


9628 


9577 


9525 


1960 


10000 


9571 


9517 


9465 


1980 


10000 


9681 


9642 


9602 


2000 


10000 


9725 


f692 


9657 


1960 


10000 


9585 


9531 


9480 


1980 


10000 


9720 


9692 


9661 


2000 


10000 


9782 


9761 


9737 


Colored 


Females 








1939-40 


10000 


9404 


9325 


9243 


1960 


10000 


9640 


9593 


9543 


1980 


10000 


9690 


9644 


9596 


2000 


10000 


9703 


9660 


9614 


1960 


10000 


9652 


9606 


9558 


1980 


10000 


9736 


9704 


9667 


2000 


10000 


9771 


9742 


9710 


1960 


10000 


9659 


9614 


9567 


1980 


10000 


9763 


9739 


9710 


2000 


10000 


9811 


9792 


9770 



Exact Age in Years. 

10 20 30 
8989 8718 8060 
High Mortality Trends 
9388 9208 8765 
9456 9297 8913 
9478 9329 8973 
Medium Mortality Trends 
9418 9269 8898 
9566 9462 9206 
9625 9539 9332 

Low Mortality Trends 
9438 'j307 8987 
9635 9566 9400 
9717 9673 9571 



9174 8880 8273 

High Mortality Trends 

9600 9312 8902 

9556 9388 9034 

9574 9415 9089 

Medium Mortality Trends 

9518 9360 9015 

9635 9524 9285 

9682 956b 9395 
Low Mortality Trends 

9530 9395 9096 

9688 9617 9462 

9752 9706 9612 



40 


50 


60 


70 


80 


7175 


5888 


4126 


2494 


1040 


8112 


6959 


5047 


3067 


1279 


8333 


7276 


5387 


3286 


1371 


8432 


7436 


5589 


3421 


1427 


8342 


7434 


5735 


3638 


1527 


8800 


8083 


6579 


4315 


1815 


8998 


8373 


6958 


4514 


1942 


8501 


7749 


6329 


4460 


2028 


9125 


8638 


7676 


5944 


2801 


9394 


9020 


8222 


6566 


3131 



7480 



6294 



4574 



2950 



1439 



8324 


7281 


5456 


3536 


1727 


8521 


7569 


5777 


3759 


1839 


8611 


7715 


5969 


36se 


1909 


8616 


7687 


6055 


4027 


1964 


8920 


8261 


6810 


4634 


2261 


9092 


8515 


7148 


4901 


2391 


8661 


7976 


6631 


4860 


2519 


9313 


8767 


7661 


6244 


3296 


9449 


9104 


6348 


6795 


3605 



42 



National Resources Plannina Board 



Table 1 (Continued) - U. S. Abridged Life Tables 1939-40, and Hypothetical Tables 
For Future Years Assuming High, Medium and Low Mortality Trends 

Stationary Population in Are Period (Ijt) 



Colored Males 



Under 1 


1-2 


3-5 


5-9 


19S9-40 


9403 


9200 


27321 


44980 


1960 


9640 


9517 


28386 


46965 


1980 


9689 


9581 


28576 


47309 


2000 


9702 


9599 


28640 


47423 


1960 


9657 


9540 


28466 


47131 


1980 


9745 


9659 


28855 


47847 


2000 


9780 


9706 


29016 


48143 


1960 


9667 


9553 


28496 


47200 


1980 


9776 


9704 


29026 


48177 


2000 


9826 


9770 


29240 


48586 


Colored 


Females 








1939-40 


9530 


9859 


27834 


45908 


1960 


9716 


9613 


28695 


47529 


1980 


9755 


9664 


28849 


47809 


2000 


9765 


9678 


28901 


47901 


1960 


9725 


9626 


28729 


47611 


1980 


9792 


9718 


29048 


48196 


2000 


9819 


9754 


29172 


48428 


1960 


9731 


9653 


28750 


47664 


1980 


S&l^ 


9749 


29171 


48442 


2000 


9851 


9800 


29336 


A8763 



Age Period (interved b^ween 2 exact ages.) 



10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 
44746 42871 39287 34459 

High Mortality Trends 
46806 45566 43105 39445 
47161 46071 43923 40652 
47278 46256 44264 41199 

Medium Mortality Trends 
46978 45955 43896 40761 
47747 47047 45607 43262 
48056 47485 46319 4438B 

Low Mortality Trends 
47088 46201 44418 41671 
48117 47665 46725 45125 
48545 48261 47686 46635 



45701 43707 40461 36072 

High Mortality Trends 
47391 46081 43874 40588 
47679 46531 44606 41678 
47775 46698 44914 42174 

Medium Mortality Trends 
47492 46410 44545 41706 
48104 47359 46047 43930 
48345 47734 46667 44899 

Low Mortality Trends 
47564 46638 450?D 42530 
48388 47921 47061 45600 
4F72e 48436 47902 46930 



50-54 


60-64 


70-74 


80-84 


27312 


18414 


10493 


3876 


32625 


22635 


12900 


4765 


34272 


24248 


13818 


5104 


35132 


25236 


14381 


5312 


35404 


26024 


15379 


5685 


38916 


30328 


18266 


6754 


40464 


32232 


19528 


7222 


37328 


29211 


19421 


7512 


42249 


36587 


26237 


10318 


44331 


39535 


29044 


11468 



29463 20569 12755 



5781 



34399 


24643 


15281 


6926 


35913 


26185 


16238 


7359 


36702 


27129 


16823 


7624 


36787 


27601 


17395 


7884 


39905 


31464 


20000 


9065 


41267 


33153 


21132 


9578 


38572 


30742 


2ie64 


10070 


42967 


37552 


27976 


13112 


44800 


40202 


30443 


14269 



Average IHiture Lifetime (ex) 



Colored Males 








1 


2 


5 


1939-40 


51.2 


54.4 


53.9 


51.4 


1960 


56.3 


58.5 


57.8 


55.1 


1980 


58.3 


59.7 


59.0 


56.3 


2000 


59.1 


60. 4 


59.7 


57.0 


1960 


59.3 


60.9 


60.3 


57.6 


1980 


63.0 


64.0 


63.3 


60.6 


2000 


64.6 


65.4 


64.6 


61.8 


1960 


61.9 


63.6 


63.0 


60.3 


1980 


68.1 


69.1 


68.3 


65.5 


2000 


70.7 


71.3 


70.4 


67.6 


Colored 


Females 








1939-40 


54.2 


56.6 


56.0 


53.5 


1960 


59.3 


60.5 


59.8 


57.2 


1980 


60.8 


61.7 


61.0 


58.3 


2000 


61.6 


62.4 


61.7 


59,0 


1960 


61.6 


62.8 


62.1 


59.4 


1980 


64.9 


65 .'6 


64.8 


62.1 


2000 


66.3 


66.9 


66.0 


63.3 


1960 


64.3 


65.5 


64.8 


62.1 


1980 


70.0 


70.7 


69.9 


67.1 


2000 


72.4 


72.7 


71.9 


69.0 



Exact Age in Years. 

10 20 30 

46.9 38.2 30.8 
High Mortality Trends 

50.4 41.3 33.1 

51.5 42.4 34.0 
62.3 43.0 34. 5 

Medium Mortality Trends 

52.9 43.7 35.2 

55.8 46.3 37.5 

57.0 47.5 38.4 

Low Mortality Trends 

55.6 46.3 37.7 

60.7 51.1 41.9 
62.7 53.0 43.5 



48.9 40.3 52.9 
High Mortality Trends 
52.4 43.3 35.1 
53.6 44.4 36.0 

54.2 45.0 36.5 
Medium Mortality Trends 

54.6 45.4 37.0 

57.3 47.9 39.0 

58.4 49.0 39.9 
Low Mortality Trends 
57.4 48.1 39.5 
65.3 52.7 43.5 
64.2 54.4 44.9 



40 


50 


60 


70 


80 


24.0 


18.1 


13.6 


9.4 


8.9 


25.3 


18.6 


13.7 


9.4 


5.9 


26.0 


18.9 


13.7 


9.4 


5.9 


26.4 


19.2 


13.8 


9.4 


5.9 


27.2 


19.9 


14.2 


9.5 


5.9 


28.9 


21.0 


14.6 


9.5 


5.9 


29.7 


21.4 


14.7 


9.5 


5.9 


29.6 


21.9 


15.6 


10.0 


5,9 


33.0 


24.5 


16.9 


10.2 


5.9 


34.2 


25.4 


17.3 


10.3 


5.8 



25. S 



19.7 



15.2 11.0 7.5 



27.2 


20.3 


15.3 


11.0 


7.5 


27.8 


20.6 


15.3 


11.0 


7.5 


28.2 


20.8 


15.4 


11.0 


7.4 


28.8 


21.3 


15.6 


11.0 


7.5 


30.4 


22.3 


15.9 


11.0 


7.5 


31.0 


22.7 


16.0 


11.0 


7.5 


31.2 


23.5 


17.1 


11.5 


7.5 


34.5 


26.0 


18.3 


11.6 


7.4 


35.6 


26.7 


18.6 


11,6 


7.4 



? i 



Estimates of Future Populaflon of the Vtnted Statex, 1940-2000 



43 



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National Resources Planning Board 



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CMU3OC00> fO ■^ \^ -^ a> 

tO^CMCM^ 0»tOeOr-tCM 

^COeOtOr-* f-4CMOCMCO 

totototoco to<o<oio^ 



CM i-t 0> r-« O 

rH to C^i CO CM 

1-4 ^ -<j« e^ CO 



oD CM in to <H 
in cr> 05 Oi t-c 
a> o> to 



to to ^ CO CM ,-1 



lA CM a> iH CM CM 

K in to CO to o> 

^ CM ^ f- CJl O 

*"* ID 'i' to CM CM 



CO Ol o> O lO 

oi to to in 

CM to CM 



<J> CO 

o o 

CM r-t 



00 CM to ^- o 

t^ to in CO ■* 

to to to rH CM 



to CO o o> to 

a> O O •* rH 
CM rH to Ol to 



OCMlOOtO ,-(r-tinCMO 

•S'CMeoojCM CM'^incOf-t 

^0>f"?'^<0 C^OltO 



o to 

en 00 

00 —I 



tOtOtOtOtO tOtOiO-^lO lO'^<flOCM r-H 



lOCMlOtO'Ti ,-liHrHtOin 

too-^toco C0tO^'# 

oof3inc^o» CMtocM 

«a* Tj« to CM rH iH 



to o 

00 to 
en o> 



0> ^ i-H 1^ CM 
E- to .-I C- -^ 
,-t to CM CM to 



CO lO r-i in -^ 
to to to ^ in 

,-^ to O -^ to 



cDtDtototo tomioinm 



i-(tDcocMrH in(isa>^o 

to^Oiort to-3*of^»-i 

C^.t'-OC^'* toocw 

in ^ ^ CO CM r-l 



m CD 
t^ to 
to o 

to CM 
CO 



oo^VcMin ococM<«^ 

OOlO'^tOCO rHLOOl^ 

too>otocn cMiOi— I 

* * • * * m 

■* ^ lO CM r-( r-i 



cMCM^cur- cotointooi oO'^coodcj 

tOCMOCOr-4 »-tCJ>tOCntO tOCOtOrHr-t 

o to t-- o to 



*« *** ^ **J V - w^ *"* **rf **^ *J* 

tOCMQCOr-4 »-tCJ>tOCntO 

OsCMtOCOCM ^OtOt-^ 



in to to to to 



^ o to t> "^ 

» « k « •> 

in in in ic in 



to cy> to w 00 

C-- CM t- C^ 
•sj* t- CM 



to CM 

o to 

•3* 00 



CMCDCO^tO ^tOtOO} 

QiHCOOlO tOOOOtO 

'*00(-»tDCO OlO»-< 

**• .-O to CM (-1 ,-1 



rOincOCOCM lOlOlOOCM 

OrHOlOtO ^OC»C0^ 

CO to -^ <M -^ ,-ttOcOIOCM 



to CM O ^' to 

in o t*- t- CD 

to rH ^ 00 O 



CO (Ji to O 
to lO <o to 

CM to CM 



to ,-t 
CM tX> 



intototoin lOioiomin ■•a'^'tocMCM 



^n CMcCtOtO-* OC^'^*''* 

zi t-tointoto E^cotoio 

5; ^tOr-i'd'tO Ol-^r-l 

'"' ■* fO to CM ,-( 



to O lO O CO 
0> CM CD O CO 
CD 'J* CM in iH 



to CM Ol to 03 
'L< t^ C- CD -^ 
to Ol to to CO 



^ CD t~ to r* 
to o o o> tji 

to CO CO lO c^ 



to CO o o ya 

^ CM CM lO 

^ to CM 



lototDinm inin'Oin'J' -^totocMr-t rn 



,-j OlOCOCOOl /HCMCOCMcO 

Is COOCOtOCO tOtO'i'tO 

5^ OltOOl.H'* CTl'J^r-i 

•"• to CO CM CM (H 



13 V 



Ot^r-ttOOO COCCtOOlrQ 

lO»-^COt^CM CMr-cOCM 

01-*t001^ COtOrH 





■* ^ 


a 


lO ^ 


(b 


t^ rH 


L. 


« 


T1 


to CM 


rH 


r* 






-g 




^ 




O 






o t- 


a 




tj 


to to 



en CO to to lo 

Ol en CM CM rH 

CTl CM in CM f- 

m to m in iO 



CO CO lO ^ to 

to in CO CO lo 

O C^ ^' O) lO 

to lO lO 'i* 'J' 



OC^tOOCD ODOliO^CM 

cneointocn cMtococnto 

COlOCMt^O COlOOtOCM 



■* .-H Ol t; lO 

in to 00 fo CM 

O to o> ^ tu 

• «•*** 

■* CO C-0 CM ^ 



rH to r- to in 

CO CM 00 ^ 
o iC --< 



to lO CM r-i rH 



m in in in to 



lO lO m ■* ^ 



Ol^tOtOsO lOtCiO^un 

tOCOt^CMcO r-l-^e^'^ 

COCMlOOlO Ol-CrH 

CO to CM CM (-1 



^ ■* 



to OJ 



o to 

in e^ 

CO CM' 



-P O tCr-tCOtOr-l ^OlCMCO 

ca ^ inr-icna>t^ cmiOcmcm 

i-i ^ e^otococM c-cOr-< 

p. " CO to CM r-t rH 



;^ 


CM 0> 


ID 




Tl 


CO lO 


rt 




3 


in to 



e-co^toin tocMOtJito 
OOtOOliOOi ^c-oto^ 
r-^cMt^r^CO tOcHCOtOO 



^ CM r-t f-t <Jl 

O eo CO rH en 

lO CO to 01 CM 



O lO to CM 'H 

00 rH in ■* ^ 

C^ •* r-t 



ininintDin in la ^ ^ ■^ tocMCM^-ti 



"i* Ol ^ Ol ^ 

lO in to to c^ 

I I J I 1 

o to O lO o 

lO lO to tp c^ 



Ol '3* Ol ^ 

C^ CO CD <31 -^ 

lO O lO o to 

t« CD CO Ol 0> 



O lO O iO o 



Ol ^ o> ^ 

CM to to 'T 

' > ' J 

U> O lO CD I 
CM lO CO -* 



^ O) ^ a» ^ 

lO lO to to c^ 

O ID O lO O 

m lO to to t~ 



oi '*' en ^ 

c- CO CD en -« 

I I I I 

lO O lO O lO 

B^ CD CO Ol O) 



I 

o 



Estimates of Future Population of the United Stated, 1940-2000 



45 



8 

O 



O ^ <** C\J Oi 

1/3 Ol lO C- CJ 
O CM ,-( O O 



■^ to ^- lo <£) 



to <H t^ to CO 

in t- CO O) ^ 

O lO 1/5 t- eo 



O 00 »-l CO to 
O to O lO 
to t- C\J 



•o 

o 



tototo^co lomioiDio io»j<coc\jc\i 



t*^tOlO^ CDlOtD'<*tO ooeocsjcocj 

COa>tOC7>tO C-tOO«>CO NcOOiCOt- 

c-o>coe-c^ to^c^oo Otot^r-tcp 

Jiicicioio mioioioi/a io***pOiOcj 



O 00 CO c- (J> 

N to cr> "i? to 
C3> ^ O O a> 



Tj" csi t- c- lo 
sj< e- oj lo Q 
c^ -^ to to rt 



tOtOtOtOlO lOlOiOtOl/) 



o» a> eo o 

^ iO :0 to CM 



to 






O lo 



wiowocc •"J'loaie^iH tocj^j'rDua 

tOr-r-4<y»0 OIXJCVJCOOI CvJrHCJtM-NC 

tOCOCOC^^- lONr->rHrH <7»i-ttOinO 

miOiomi/) Lomioioin ^'4<ioeoto 



c\) c\j to to t^ 

O i-H Ol O CO 
CO rH O O C^ 



tM Cg CVJ Ol CO 
OJ C7> lO kO CO 
lO to Tf •(*< r-« 



U>tOCOtOlO LOIOLOLOU? 



to to CO <-H 'J* 

N 0> O r-( CO 

lO C- t- CVJ OJ 

■^ to to'^ cC 



to to 0> C^ lO 
Cft lO rH -^ 
to to N 



a>iHt-^tO DOt-^l/3tO 

^CJOtOtO C7>t*lOa»CD ,--*,-,w.^ 

._-.«*h^.„ c«Ji-hc>jC\jO lOOJOt'Ch 



in cu CO c- lo 
U3 in lo lO i/> 



to O iO OJ lO 

W BO r^ -^ O 



LOiOlOl/ilO ^cO^tOCNj 



Ol C- CNJ ^ ^ 
^J< O to Cvj to 
C^ rH O CO to 



rH CO to O O 

•# fi in ^ ^ 

^ U3 U3 CO U3 



CO rH a> <o to 
O 0> lO t^ to 
•-I r-l CO Ol iH 



to ^ o ^ 

to 00 O 'J' 
Csi 1/5 CJ 



mtotoioio lo la \n ia '^ -^^cocnjcj 



C^ 00 

lO to 

.-I -tf* 



Ol <0 rH O ^ 

Ol *H in to cvj 
^ m t^ iii t^ 



inici/^inin 1/31/5101/3^ 



in ■* to CO c- 
rH Q to CO to 

Cy eO iO rH "^i 



m cj •>* O to 

to 1/3 m t>- to 

rH to Csi m C^ 

^ •<*•=*< to CM 



-* ^ 10 CT> I 

c*- O cc in ■ 



O) ■* in c\j c- 
to CNi to i^ o 
10 to ^ to CO 



tOtOt^OtO CJtOCO^ 

ictoincnoi t~-i io r-* 



mtoininm inmio'*"'^ ■^^^-^tocM, 



■=*^ O C^ CO 1/3 

en to ^- '^ •* 
^ t^ i/i to (\j 



cvj ■># m t^ o 
^ rH m in t*- 

tO ^ CM U3 CM 



00 BO a> cb to 
t-- rH m u> 10 
in to o to "* 



inj^mmm mmin-j*'^ ■^■^j'^topi? 



C- to Tjt b- rH 

03 to CM ,-t .-H 

to CO CO in to 



to CM to ^ O 
c^ O 1/3 to to 
to 1/3 t^ Ti* t-. 



t^M0Or-*CM 0«-«00'**fO 

rH'^CO'S'CM lOOtOtO 
b-OCOl/3C- Oi/3rH 



U3 

m 

in 



tninioin«3 mm^Tf^i* '^■;JtocMrH 



en in 
O 01 



rH to ^ CO ^ 

■* CO to to r- 
-^ m CO CM to 



■* to to !>- m 

in O rH m CM 

■* to to to t- 



to rH CO in to 

in Q »-H rH C- 
00 ^ CO O rH 



minLnu3m ^ in ^ '^ ■^ ■^^^totocM 



in c^ rH cr> o 

rH CO ^ ^ C\J 

in to lo to c^ 



CO in ^ CM 'J' 
in rH rH o in 
in CO in o> o> 



tot-eocM'* tocotOt-*to 
t-omtot^ to^^to 

COOOOCJin Ol^rH 



mmtninm m^^-*^ '^cotocMrH 



to ^ 

10 

01 CO 



CO CM in 00 to 
t- t^ CO 01 co 

CM CO OJ to 'J' 



t^ rH ^ U> ^ .HrHOOO-'J' 

•ei'tOrHCMrH Tj'TjJCJC^tO 

tOCD^iCOO tDrHT**tOOi 



----- -«••«* Ma^atA 

inminioin m-^'^-^in ^^tocMrH 



CM-^tOt^-t- rHCMCM^'** 

Oiot^moi to t> Oi o en 
toictot^in coincftrHin 



i-H CM CO 'JD to 
CM lO rH to C-- 

rH -^ t- O ^ 



10 O ■=^ O c-^ 
to 01 CO to 

CD eO rH 



u*? in lo in lO 



^ ^ ^ 10 ^ 



■C< fO rj CM rH 



m to in rH CO 

t- O rH f-H ^- 

O CM ijf u; to 



in LO in 1/3 U3 



to CO o 00 to 
cs lo a; I— I O) 

to -^ CO rH t- 



co CO to to o 

in rH CO rH rH 
(O b- C ■^ CO 



■^ -* ^ m 'J' 



■^ to CO CM rH 



inc^^'^rH totoOf-cM 

CMCOcOfOO rHinOtOtO 

CMtOC-'^O) tOOCMr-CO 



03 ■^ -^ a i-i 

CO t^ CO to CM 

c*- o ^ 01 to 



C*J t^ t> to CM 

m in CM CM 

t- CO rH 



inminm'^ ^lOin'*''^ 



EO yi CM rH rH 



to to 


to o> ^ in 


CM Q 0> CO 10 

<Ji ■^ CO o) 


•«?' eo to in 


o» to 




cH 01 ^ CM en 


in CO 




^ Cft rH CO 1/3 


cfv CM c^ CM m 










in in 


m U3 in in -^ 


-v ■# in ^ -^ 


to to CM CM rH 



rHCOCMiniO OOOOrH'** 

lOOitDcOtO Of-tOt-tO 

^c^tocnto rHCMOTi^oi 



CM .-) 0> to CO 
to rH CM to ^ 
to CO to C>- rH 



00 Cn rH CM CM 
CO CO rH CM 
to CO rH 



ininmrj*';*' inm^'^co cocMcvjrHrH 



incOCMOlrH O>COgOtJ<00 

CMCOCM-^CJ t^*^tOO^ 

rHin^r-m ocMcntoo 



G> tD O ■^ ^ 
to t-- to U3 10 

'* oj m ch t-3 



^ m ^ ^ ^ 



CO CM CM rH rH 



Ot^rHrH'*' COO^COOl 

tOC^(DO)in CMOtOtOO 

^toc^itOrH looiinoio 



01 C- to O) rH 

■^ CO CO O lO 

O to o in o 



in to 03 CM CM i-l 

in o> J) CM ,-t 
to ci c^ 



in isi '^ -^ lO 



in 'T' rf rj* to 



(O CM CM rH rH 



CO CO 

* CD 
CO O 



CT) -^ ^ CM O 
CO CM t- -^ 0> 
W O to rH 10 



t- m CM to o» 

to ■* CM to O 
r-. t^ CM to CM 



iniO'^'^m inin'S'-^to 



to CM CM rH rH 



rHl/JOOt^rH COtOe^^tO 

inC^rHCnCD lOtOmtOrH 

COCnf-rHCO CntCrHtOCM 



in -^ -^r LO in 



^ ^ ^ CO CO 



to CM CO rH O 

to to rH CO O 
CO to CO to O 



CM CO ■* 0> CM 

C^ U3 CTi rH 
lO CM 



CM CM rH rH rH 



1 in '*• -a* > 
1 r^ CO ^ t 



»H rH O CO O 

t^ to rH c- m 
rHtViCOtO OC>CMtOCM 



1/3 CM rH in C^ 

Oi rH C. CO rH 
tt) ■* CO 'C' rH 



in ^ ^ to ^3 



CM CM rH rH rH 



t^rjicM^in coo-^coco 

OtOtOtOrH OltOCMtOCM 

(Ot-CM'J«0 tOCMt-eOO 



^ -^ in in 10 



CO ** a> ■<*• to 
to m in rH e-- 

1/3 O to to CO 



U> Q W C^ *0 

CO lO CO ^ 
^ CM 



^^eOtOtO CMCMrHrH 







•^ ^ C^ CO to 


to e^ 


<;h 




t- 




I/? m to rH 



cMt^-5j«into to-'CocMi/j 
cotO'T'too -^mcot^cM 
c-cMt^tco inototoo) 



'?' ■^ in in in 



■* **• to to to 



01 



■<f« Cl rH rH CM 

I I I I I 

o to o m o 

rH r-l CM 



OiOOlOO lOOincDiO 

ininto'of- c^cooGOiCTi 







■* CTl ^ 




■^ (8 




•^ 01 ^ rH CM 


CM to CO ^ ■'J* 


1 -P 


+> 


1 1 1 1 1 


1 1 1 1 1 






10 m 


in 10 Q in 
CM CO to ^ ■^ 


^ 




rH rH CM 



■^ ai "# a» '* 

u3 1/3 to to C-- 

I I I I I 

O U3 O U^ O 

in in to to c- 



46 



National Resources Planning Board 



O CD rH 00 «-< •-< 
t- CO "^ O «-« O 
rl iH ■<»• ^ W 



to lO t^ CNJ -i< 

r-l t^ CM t- r-t 
^ C\J CJ .-4 rH 






tNi O C^ t- rH 
C\) (O CVJ 



00 fH 

to o> 



r-( CO ^ U> O 

C^ rH W 0> (H 

O rH ■* 



to rH N rH CO 
CO to CO w e- 
O CNJ rH r-i O 



t^OJiHOO ^^f-10>t^ tDOl^C^r-i 

.-HtOlOCOCv) [Or-^(D0O OU3CM 

OOJCOt-t- tO'^lOCU.-t r-l 



CS) :o 



o 

0» 

ft 



CO 






«5 lO O ^ CO 

^ 00 ^ oi to 

O ^ fH o o 

f-4 ^ ,H rH ^ 



tocO'*^-r^ opto^oto»o ^touatorn 



in o 



OJ CO iH O 00 

■* CD eo 00 
t^ CO to 



to ■* 

CO o» 



t^ to eg to to 
O ^ O U3 CO 

O <-t iH O 0> 



■-IrHrHCpt*- COOCTJlOaJ ^■^CNJtDM 

O>C0C0e^(£) '#-«i<EOCMiH 



a> to to o t* 

■* o o c- 

U3 CO CO 



00 '*' 



rH to OJ GO O 
S O to O) w 
0> i-H O C» OS 



to CO iH CD O 
to CM CO ^ to 
CO CO t^ (O LO 



- O f^ CO ^ 

> Q CO r-l -^ 
• ^ CM CM <~| 



to o 

f-H to 



O) CO 



Q kO to lO CM 



._ — _,, OCOC-t^rH 

-•tootoco Loot-'yn^ 
cnoocnco coootoioic 



■^ o> O CO c^ 
to ^ CO o> ^ 
■^^ to OJ r-l rH 



■ to a> I 

I ^ r-t 



rH O 



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a> lo csj to 

CM to CM 



CO T(» 

to o 



lOOCJtOOi r-lrH'^Ot*- E^ 

OrH'J^OltO tOOOlCOr-i O 

cj>oo)cooo ooc^tomio ^ 



CM rj< r-( ^ 

^ lO o to 

to CM CM r-t 



•^ ■* '^ a> lo 

to in o ^ 
.-H U9 CM 



in A 
Q ™ 

* CM 

in to 



coto^too cMinooto^ 

lO'^OtOm CJrHOlOlO 

coosoicoco t^tocom'* 



ojocototo tooototo 

Olr-^tnCOCM t^tOr-t 

CO to CM r-l rH 



lO ^ 00 rH 
to CTi CO ^ 
O) "^ ,-i 



lO (D 
CM CO 
to 00 



-<#t^r-t^<7> '"a<oioa>to 

OOCJitOtO tOcOoOCO^ 

aoa>cDcot- totoin'^-^ 



^^-^e^J(o toincn^ 

<OrHtOt-r-4 tOtOr-t 

to to CM ,-1 r-( 



CM e-- to 

to u) in 

CO ■* r-* 



00 to 

to CM 

■# to 



in lO 



r-4 •* to CM O 

t^ O) t' m m 

t- CO CO c*- to 



r-l to in CM CO 



CMtOOtOO) OOt-OtOO 

tOt-tOtOlO CMtOrH^C^ 

c^ooc^toto toinm^'^ 



CMCOOCnCM r-ttOlOtO 

t-COCMlOO tO'^r-H 

to CM CM r-t rH 



to CM CM r-l 



« 


CO U) 


3 


r-l rH 




C71 O 




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to r-l CM CM 

to CO rH 



rH y> (7» h- in 

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U:> to rH 



to t^ 
t- lO 



in t- ^ 



CO CM 
rH in 

CO to 



t- to rH ■* t- 
Tjl to C- CO ^ 

t- c^ to to to 



tO^eO^Ol Oit^rH^t^ 

lot-oitot^ ma>a»cMto 
totototoin in^^^to 



CM to CO 0> to t- ^ I 
CM in t- C4 rH in CM 
to CM rH .H rH 



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to CM rH r-l 



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ft 


eo r^ 


lii 




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c^ 






















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$ 


(D t- 


t- (O 




c^ r- 



o> ^ o> ^ 

t^ CO 00 ^ ^y 

I ■ I I 

m o lO O to 

r- CO CO o> o> 



-<*« cri ■* en -^t* Oi 

Tit Oi r^ t-i Q^ CMtOcO 

I I I I I III 

omoioo inoin 

r^ r-A <:^ CM to f 3 



?! 



C7J '* en ^ 
r- CD CO 05 •« 
I I I I I I t I I 

omoioo lootoom 
inintotot*- r-cococno> 



I +i 
O o 



Entimatefi of Fuhue Population of the rii'ited States, 1940-2000 



47 



eo o ■* O W 

rH in O lO 0> 
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co C-- o »-i to 

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to in ■<*» N CM r-t r~* 



to 


o CO o cy> t^ 


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5 C\J ■* t>- CM 


n 


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A 


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lOtOCOtOCO coc^coc^o> 
0^i-«00 CJICOCOC^C^ 

1— t r-i r-i i-H iH 



^J* O ^ »-* <-< CO to 

to ^ e*- O CO ^ CO 
in '^ to to oj I— I 



at o 

N CD 



■*coc«jT^m t-^c-oto cjc-^t-rj coinoio'^ 

OCMCOtOtO COtOCJiiniiH O^C^COrH CMCO 

OrHOOOJ COCOt^t>-CO lO 



I to C^J CM rH 



r-* to 



o 

GO 
(A 



cn in CO o '^ 
(O CO ^ CO o 

CT> o O cr> o> 



OOOtOO) rHcnc-'J'to '-•c'^'^'^ 
incMcoLQ'* r-(^int*co eot-cOiH 

CDCOb-^Om in^tOCMrH r-i 



OmOCOt^ CJ>tOCJ>CMQ 

eO'*COr-4«3 coot^coto 
oiooicjiO) cDcotoinin 



*i*COCMC--t- (TjtO^rHM 

.HCM-^COCO O^COrH 

in ■* to CVJ rH i~* 



I— I 



to CM 

CJ> o 
O to 



eOCMC^rHtO CMOtO-*"* rH«HintOtO 

OOiCvJOOlO CMOOOltD CJlfHOi^in 

cncnCTJCDco cot>-toinu3 ^^ojcMr-* 



CO -^ U3 O CO 
CI> m CM rH 



U3 CD 

O t- 



t- aj CT> o cJi 
m CM cr t- CO 

CO C31 CO CO CO 



CO in O O rH 

r-l CM CM O -sJ* 

t> tc (O (£) m 



CM ID CM CM CJ> 

t^ in o o to 

■^ to to CM r-1 



CM CM 

o > 

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to oj m -^ to 
O CJ) t* lO CO 
CO CO CO CO c^ 



CC O C^ C- r-4 
';f< -"^ CM t> CM 

iD io io la \a 



O lO CM O O 
iH <0 in CO CM 
•^ 60 CM ^ rH 



rH CM CO C- t- 

t- 00 to ^ in 

C^ GO CO C-- (O 



CC Qp -^J* t-- 1* 

in ^ o in in 
to to ro m "^ 



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cj o CM in oi 

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to CO in o ^ 
CO to in c*- c^ 
t- CO t- to CO 



CO CO to C^ CO 
O CM CO CO to 

to to in ^ ^ 



to CM ^ CD rH 

in c^ oi CM o> 

CO CM rH rH 



O CD 0» O t^ 


CD O ** *-0 •* 


t^ to O CO u^ 


t> CD CO m rH 


■^ 


o 

c 
o 


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in in c- CD CO 


^ rH rH o c:> 


rH to to t-H rH 


in eg r-t 


GO 


+> 


t^ ,-* 


t^ o to to to 


to to m in CO 


CO CM rH rH rH 




eg 


01 


CO ^ 



I 



en rH o m (7> 
in CO o o to 
to to c^ c^ to 



^ CD C- 00 to 
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to in lo 'J* CO 



tr> to to CO rH 

C*- Ol ^ ^ 00 
C-J i-t ,-i I-* 



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t* lO 

t- at 



^ Oi '^ iJ> ^ 

in in to to t^ 

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o in o u^ o 

in in to to t> 



o o 



48 



to r-t I-* t- rH 

■<»' O O rH CM 

to r-t C^ ■<*< CV 

« « (k * « 

^ Irt ^ ^ rjt 



rH ^ in o> CO 

OJ to eO r-4 o 
oO CO CM OJ Csl 



^ i-H rH CO * 

^ ^ CM C^ ,-t 

CO OJ fr- O i-H 

f-( O CO o u> 



00 CO iH ■«a' in 

0> O) 0> iH CM 
CO CM 03 W 



National Resources Planning Board 

*^if^°*£f'^ ^o-*^co loootocooo 
J-^eMr^^-to Ow^o>cm ?-(OoiSS 
to[>in«cM ^co^S^ 0)^^«S 



c^ e- t^ c^ C-- 



c^co«3tOtO ^OU5T^»^QCM 



r-tr-4t^tOCM OiCDCMtOtO 

cocMiocoai eocotOr-teo 

CT)t^^J<CMo> ^C^COCOOJ 



iO <^ ^ ^ to 



to CM CM tv tM 



lO rH -^ to O 

to «3 CM to CM 

lO LO CM C^ t^ 

t-H 0> CO t- to 



0> O) U3 CD CM 
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o »-H '^ to a» 

to to CD Q ^ 

<~t in to m ,-1 

t^ t^ c- o^ c^ 



CM ^ CM r-t O 

to I-H CO to O 

to LO CM CM CM 

to to to to to 



(O t- C^ Ol w 

CM to CM rH ^ 

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Tt< CO lO ■^ CO 
to t^ CM in «H 

to -* eo o in 



CC rH CM 00 O 

in in CO t- in 

CO ^ ■^ '^ (j> 



CO in c^ o> t^ 

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f-t O O rH O 



CO CO to O <H 

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c;i O t- f-t 



CMCMCMCMrH OOlCTJOOtO 



^ to to to to 

m Q CM CD o 

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to c^ c- c- to 



CM Ol in OD t^ 

fO -t:}* 1/5 CO ^ 

m to to to o 

to to to to to 



to -^ ^ to CM 



to to to o to 

rH ■* Cft 00 to 

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to ■^ ^ to CM 



to in o CT) c^ 

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in to to ,-H ^ 

CM CM CM CM O 



8^ CM O Csi 
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in ^ to o <;> 
CM in a> t^ iH 

to CO to »H 



CM CD t^ O W 

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CO to CM OS to 

to C^ f- to to 



cji to -d* CM m 

CJJ CM to 00 C^ 

tO ■* -^ ,_( CM 

to to to iio m 



f^ t^ Ol 0> »-H 

to Ol tn rt* CD 

t^ CO m m in 

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CO >- CM oo i-( 
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to »-H to CJ> to 



I— I CO CM CO O 

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CD in CM to to 
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o to 
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co-<*icocMCM cMCM<vjOOi OOcot-in CO,-h 



to c*- to to to 



to m o in o 

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to to to in ^ 



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CM O CM CO to 

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m in ■<*< CO CM 



CO ^ Q "^ ^ 
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CO '^ CO O CD 
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t- ^ o to ■<*' 

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to CM 

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CO to to CO CM 
C^ t^ to C-- CM 

to o> to ■^ m 



.-H CM t*l in CM 

<c in 00 to CM 

in CO -^ o "* 



tototocoto totoLOLOLn 



to to ^J" CM tJ( 

rH CO rH CO rH 

V to O rH CM 

in <•■*** CO Cm 



^ CM CO CM CO 

to to CM in to 

to O C-- CO Ol 



t-- in in to to 

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to to 00 CM in 



rH CO CO O -^J* 
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CM O O -H rH 



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to CO CM O O 

in t- O to rH 

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to '-O to to to 



O O rH O rH 

rH in in in to 

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CO rH O CTl O 

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to ■^ CO O rH 

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CO rH C7S to CM 
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in in in in in 



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CO rH t* in CO 

CM tJ* CD CO CO 

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•-4 00 t^ o en 
CO m in in c^ 
rH o t^ in en 



o> .00 to in CO 



^ CO CO Ol O 

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CO rH ^ 



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^ocoom i>-cMt>-^o 
Qtotoirjto cvjiNcDPjo 



in CO CM to in 
c^ O m in 00 

■^ 01 CM to CO 



totDtotoin mmininirj 'i'cotocMrH 



o en m to ^ 

CO rH CM OJ rH 
O rH CO rH in 



Oi ^ to CM O 

in 'J' to "# to 
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t-- CO CO -^ c- 

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to m in o ■* 



rH o in ■* cJ> 

Cvi rH CO CO 

r-> rH CO 



WCOCMrHO rHrHrHOOJ COC-tOin« 



CM 00 

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en to CO m CM 

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rH to m to CO 



rH in O O rH 

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tototoinm ujinmin-* 



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CM to ^ -^ CO 

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c- CO CM ^ cn 

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r^ C\J rH O rH 



rH en in rH in 

CO en in to o 

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to in CO rH rH 

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CO en Q ' 
rH in CO I 
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to O 

CM t^ 



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CM in t*- CO CO 

to CO m in in 



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■^ to to to CM 

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to 


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to rH CO to rH 

m rH o) en t-- 

t> O CO CO CM 

CO to CM rH rH 



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I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 

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rHrHCM CMCOtO^J"-* miOtOtOt- 



en -^ en ■* 


t-i 


to 


t^ OD OD OJ ^ 


cd 


3 


in o in o in 


o 


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T) 


C-- CO CO en en 


C-. 


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^ CD ^ 

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I 1 I I I 

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f-t rH CM 



en Tt* en ^ en 

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in Q ^^ o lo 

CM CO CO ^ ^ 



^ en ■^ en ■* 

in in to to t> 

I I I I I 

o in o lo o 

m in to to c- 



Estimates! of Future Population of the Vnited States, 1940-2000 



49 



lO lO lO ^ t- 
CJ CJ fi t- 
0> Ol CO 



to ^ 



0> <0 W U5 to 
N CN CO ^ lO 

o *o ,-( o a> 



o- in rH CO c\i 
o to o c- u:> 
CO u3 csi a> oj 



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to t*- CSi CO t* 
CO -^ -^ tC Cv) 



■^ fJ to »-H 



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to C7> 



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W CVJ o o» c*- 
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t^ CO CO 



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u> c. to CO ■* 

CO f-i O Ol CO 

to P- c^ to to 



00 ^J< C7> -^ to 

t- lo ■^ in CO 

lO CM o o o 

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01 ^ ew ra< f- 

t^'i Oi <ji '^ t^ 

t^ t- r-t O ^ 

lO '!»♦■* ^ to 



C^ CO lA 0) to 
to O O W rH 

CO to to rH 



•-I to 



OD lO C^ -^ to 
CO .-I CO to 
to CO C\J 



t^ CVJ 

in ^ 



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0OC^Olt-r-» OOCO'^O 

tOOChCOtO CVjrt^^O> 



t- CM O to CC 
W ^ r-( en CO 
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O eO to to ^ 
to Ol to fH iH 
CVJ r-* ■* fH 



to 



CO CM 
CNJ O 
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(OC^tOCOlO tOtOUJ-^iO tO'^sJ<'#eO C\J,-( 



O U> 00 CSJ to 
CO lO to to 
lo r- CM 



^ CO a> o i-H 

t- Q CO ^ to 

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to D- to to to 



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tototoiio-^ mmTj<toc\j i-hi-h 



CM to CO cH lO 

m CO '^ lo 

to to CM 



to U3 
to CO 
CM ID 



O COt^ t^ CM 


CO O CM C^ Ol 
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CM to lO CM ^ 


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lO t^ 00 O 00 


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CO ■* 


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to r-( CO cr> KJ 


in o ■* to to 


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« 






to to to tr to 


to to in ■^ lo 


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00 


to u> 

00 



UTj CM C*} to lO 
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CO to CM 



CM to 
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e^ to to CM CO 
O CO CM oi in 

CM ^3 CM CM to 



t«- in ^ in tn 

CO CD in t^ rH 
rH to O ^ l> 



tototototo toinininin 



*:*< to ,-H o to 
CM to .-1 CO to 

to CO r-H CO ■* 



to o to Tt* o 

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to t^ 

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in ^ ■<*" CO CM r-i 



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CM to Ol ■'^ 
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■^ o 

CM CO 

c- in 



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r-t -* CO O CO 



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■^ CO to C7) 
t»- O CD CO 
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CM in CO in CO 

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in in in m ^ 

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CM to CM 



in oj 

t- Ol 

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■^ t^ i*< i*« (O 

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CM CM to CM to 
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in to 


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CM C^ eO CM 
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CM in CM CM 

t^ CO rH 



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CM to 
CM to 

to to 



rH C- « rH Ol 


Ol O <0 CM to 






CO (O rH 


in 


c- 




CM CO 


cn CO in to CD 


CM t*- OO Ol CO 


f- on c- CM CO 




^ C- ^ 




CM 




in CO 


CD in CM c^ o 


CD m O CD CM 


CO CM m o <n 


Ol 








o 


to CM 




<t ik • ■> « 
















in m m m 'o 


in in in -* -^ 


CO .-■■3 CM CM w 








oc 

to 


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c^ to '* to in 
CO to en in Ol 

rH CM r- r-l CO 



to CM o Ol to 
'J* t^ o to ■^ 

to rH CO CO o 



^ CM rH rH Ol 

O CO CO rH <n 

m 00 CO tn CM 



Sin to CO rH 
^ \^ ^ t~t 
t^ 'i' ^ 



inmintoin mm"*'*'* ^cMCMrHrH 



^ ^ ^ ^ 

C^ CO CO o> >« 

I J I I 

m o lO o m 

c^ x> CD en O) 









I +> 



"atoi-^ CT>T*<cn'^cn -^en^oi^ 

'S'O^rHrHCM CMCOCO-^^* mmtOtOC- 

I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I 

O^noino momom omomo 

rHrHCM CMCJ^O^*^ mmtOtOC^ 



50 



National Resources Planning Board 



So t- o **i 
CO to lO o 

rH to CM rH r-1 



•-t cn to o a> 

O to CO N CJ 

o c^ ^ to to 



^ ^ t- CM to 
■* W O lO fr- 
W CO 00 O u> 



to '^ CM M <0 
'J* to Ol <o 

t* CO CJ 



it/ «i 



(ocotocou) u)toir30io m ^ to to ot i~t 



^coooi-too e-'<*'iooor-t -^ocgioto 

tOCOCMlOrH CNJp^iOr-tO tOCMcO<HC0 

COOOOOCO t-lOCMrH^ <-(CDOlEOa> 

loujioioio louaosj^io m-^to^ocM 



(D'or-coeo toc\.o^<^ t^otocjo) oo^^i^ 

Oi-^tOtOW QtOOilOCVJ r-li-t0t0<0 rHGOtOtO 

CncsJr^i-HO OOiOtO^^ ^CVJ(DtO<0 (Ot*-CVJ 



^ io:at£>u><o lOiOkOiOLn 



lO 'J* to to Csl 



^Ui^tOCNJ ^tOO^OrH tOOUJCOOO 

ojto^oiom ^cnt^totD cjcjiotoio 

C^OCOCDC^ lOCJMCMCiJ OCMt^<0(-H 



lOlOmtOlO iOU>miAii3 



ii3 ^ to to to 



lO to O CD CD 
to C- U3 lO CO 
(O >-• r-t O CO 



CO oj f- o to 
to to o to o> 

lO ^ lO lO CO 



CO (O O) to Q> 

to CO CO op m 

^ cn cji <• ■* 



*»• (7> O Ol to 
O 0> to 'J* 

in to cj 



►J lO 

00 cn 
c>j to 



icto'-otoin tiji/iiijtnm -^pocotooj ^ 



O)rH(?>OC0 CNJCOOTCIO GOtOCMOr-* 

ovt^^t-to woootom otouscorH 

mODOOt^lO tOOJCVjtOr-t ^OrHCOO 

lOiomusio lOinioioio ■^'^rTcoyj 



,-(OC^tOO* lOcO'^OeO 

QCOt^tCOi t-tOOON 



OCMiO^OO COtOC^lfJ 

tOOir-li-HO> -^ i-t O ^ 

MtQi-ICSJCSJ COU3CM 



iH to 
CM O 



lOtOtDlOlO lOlOiOiO'^ 



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cn to CO to (p 

lO lO CO CO ^ 
kO CD C- to lO 



t6 oi rf f^ t~ cncoiooto 

tOCMa>C>li-l OtOtJlOiH 

CMCOtOCMtO CM^tOt^OO 



mmtoioto lOiomio^ t^-^^tocsi 



to to rH ■^ to 
CO CD CO CM O 

f- o 00 <o m 



to 00 ^ t^ CO 
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lO to "(l* t- to 



lO t>. lO to o 

CD lO 0> O to 

to lo e^ o o 



CD lO a> 

.H lO rH 



^ lOtOlOlOiO lOlOlO'^'?* ^-^J^rOtOCJ 



toocotoo ojincM'^to 

CMC7ia»<0<0 (OtOOOCDrH 

lOr-VOlOCM CO^CMtOtO 



^ lO r-t O to 



lO lO lO lA iO 



lO (O LO ^ ^ 



^ •* -tj* CQ p^ 



COiHCMCMO COCO^OOO 

r-t a -^ to to O)CMC0qpCM 
t^ODtOiOtO tOiOt^^QD 



§55 

CO ^ (O 



CM t- 
3» O 

to CD 



lO r-1 O ^ to 

to ,-( c^ to 

O lO rH 



LOtOlOlOtO lOiO^^^ 



to CM rH rH 



'S'* "^lotDcnio ootocoooo cococncoo 

CMO tOOt^t^CO tOCM«t^t~ CMOi-*CDrH 

r-lO -^tDtOCMCO ^tOCDtO^- CftlOCnOtM 

toto lOLOinioio lOiO'^j*'*^ ^-^f^ococM 



to CVJ rH flO ^ 
to lO lO lO CO 
UJ CO lO <D C*- 



#-t lO to U> lO lO 



^ EO ^ lO (D 
t~ ^ CO to CM 

•^ O) r-l to to 



to <* t- w eo 

CD to •* to 
O^ ■* .-H 



-:7< to to cn; ,-1 



cn ». 


rH CO CM lO -* 




O) 00 CJ> Q 0> 

c«a CO cj ^ «j< 








lO p 


lO lO LO lO LO 



tOHt^CNJtO lOtJlCOtOtO 

lOr-CM^lO OrHCJJMCO 

tOtO'<*'CDO t-CSJ^C^O> 



to ^ ■^ ^ lO 



^ ^ to CM ,-H 






to rH OJ ^ ^ 
^ CD t^ to O 
eo lO to C^ CO 



rH LO lO to lO lO 



_H t^ I> lO I 
b- CO Q CM ■ 
CO to C rH ' 



OOCDCntO tDCM'*< 

Q'^OTCMO t-0>eOI 

CV^tOC^r-tLO COtOrH 



•^ -(J* lO LO •* 



•^ to e\J CM rH 



CM cn oi to ^ 

00 a> rH rH CO 
O W ^ lO to 



CM U3 cn CM CO 

O CD cn to CM g 

t^ ^ CO rH CO ^ 



•^ CM to t*. rtJ 
t-- t-- « rH 

t- O ^ CO 



lOLOlOiOiO tJ^^^iO-* ^cOtOCMrH 



OOC^OltO C^ ■^ ,-i ,-i t- r^^COiHt- ooot^to 

cooiootoo cMtOf-tioto c7)eor\Jt»(0 ioiOcmcm 

CMtDt*-tDOi tOOCMC^tO t--,HLOO>lO C-tOrH 



r^ LO LO lO U3 •^ 



'^J* lO to -^ -I* 



to to CM rH rH 



lOCDCMtOcO tO'^tOCOC- 

OCMeOOCM Oi-^aJOCM ,,, w . 

— -"■-^' -^aJrHOLO OltOt^CMlO 



O "# to ^ t^ 

LO LO lO LO ^ 



lO to to lO ^ 
^ CM CO to OJ 



^ "(J* lO ■"*• -^ 



to eO CM CM rH 



^O^t-O) cMtococato 

I00«5t0l0 »-iC^tOt-lO 

tOCDtOcjJtO rHCMC0^(3> 



O GO to rH to 

lO 6Q "^ lO »0 u) >*■ r-i 

COCDtOC^rH tOtOrH 



rH lOlOlO-*^ LOlO^^tO tOCJCMrHrH 



I O rH 



f-H CM CM t- 



rH to ^ t- to 
lO LO to •* ■<*• 



^ O w CO to 

__ CpOitOiOtO 

eacMOitoo ^o^LOcneo 



•^ lO "^ ^ ^ 



to CM CM t-H rH 



CM f- CM CM to 
CO t^ to <J> lO 
■^ to cn CO .-• 



O c-j t- a> tn 

to O CD CO i-H 

to cn lO o to 



rH lO O <^ "*• 
to ^ 01 rH to 

O CO O 'J> o 



r-{ lOlO^^tO LO-^^^tO tOCMCMrHi 



lO to to CM CM 
lO O) 0> CM 
CO CM 



COCMCOtOlO otototoco tocotoioo» 

fOtOtO-^iH 0>CMb-^0> -^-^JiCMtOO 

CMTft-lOO CNiOCDrHIO rHt^CMCDCM 

LOlO'^^J^lO LOlO^'^tO COCMCMrHrH 



.-HiOCDCOCM COC-CO^O 

LOt*-rHO>C0 tOtOlOCQW 

tOCnC^rHtO CntOrHtDCM 



lOtO-^CMi-H CMIQ^OkCM 

COCOrHCOO C-iOOirH 

CO CO CO to O to CM 



,-i lo -^ -^ \n in 



•J* '* -# to to 



CM CM ^ rH rH 



lO-^^O CMrHOCOCM COtOrHCOC^ 

i^-cD^to oeOrHt-LO cn^cneOr-t 

It^lOOtO Ot-N-LJCM CO'^QO'^rH 



lO ^ ^ 'J> lO 



lO ^ ^ to CO 



CM CM rH rH rH 



t- ■^ CM ^ U5 

oi to CO eo ,-* 

to C-- CM ■^ O 

•# ^ lO LO LO 



to CM t^ eO O 

^*« 'i' to to to 



CO ^ cn ■*• to 

to lO LO rH t- 

lO O CO f J CO 

CM CM rH rH 



> O CM e^ I 

' UO 00 rH 



•i*-»*C*tOtO CMC^-^tOtO 

CMt^CDCOrH COtO^tOO 

lOiOOfOrH C-CMC-eOO 



CD Tj« a> CM lO 
■^ LO CO P- CM 

LO o to OO o> 



'<*<-*lOlOlO <*''*tOtOlQ CJCMrHrH 



> 


-d* cn *»• 

■* C» rH rH Cm 


C7> ^ cjj ^ cn 
c^ to to ^ '■^ 


■^ a '^ Oi •* 

to lO to to t- 


Oi '^ Oi -^ 

t- 00 00 o> 4-; 

lilt 

lO O lO O i'^ 
t^ CO CO ^ o> 


o to o to o 

rl rH CM 


lO O lO o to 

CM to to ^ ** 


O U3 O to O 
LO LO to CO c- 



o to O lO o 



Estimatefi of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



51 



O ^ rH U3 O W 
O lO (O t^ rH iH 



to 0> eO CM CM 
t^ to 00 N to 
rH W N CM r-< 



^ t- to o> to 

lO "J* op to lO 
t^ to <* to CM 



8 



lO 


«J rH ^ t^ O 


^ 


^ CO 

en ^ 


n» 


^ lO CM 0> r-( 


c- 


Oi 


iH iH -^ 


CM 


o <o 



eOCOCM^-r^ liJC-OlCMt- OiiJrH^lO (Ot-CM 

P-|CMCMr-tr-( OOiCOCOe- t-lO^eOCM rH 

i-t i-t I— I <-i r-t fH 



tO r^ 



O ^- CO to c- cjj 

0> O CM C^ CO 

a> o o fo 



s 



cs en CO iO CO 
00 w t~- N y3 

O C^ .H ^ o 
r-t i-t rH rH .-I 



■* o CO ^r to 

CT> rH ■* Q lO 
0> CT> CO <0 C^ 



COCJjCOCJi'^ t^tococ*-, 

8t^ rH ^ O CM (O CM 

Tit ^ eO CM (-1 



lO en 



,-* tJ* in o CO 
o> o to 00 
t~- oi to 



en O 

en e= 

CO CO 



^b-tOC^O CMCOtO®^ 

Or-ti-iOO cncoooP^co 



COtOtO'^lO CMCsJ'^tOi 

CMCpCnC^Cn rHtOCM 

Irt ^ W CM rH r-t 



O to rH C^ O t-- 

00 t- r-t Q C^ 

0» ID CO CO 



OOCMCMiDt- OOOtO^CM 

CnCOCOrHCO CO^Ot-^ 

cnrHOOO" cocooocoio 



tOUJCOCMrH Cn^J'CMtD 

coiocouat^ oioc\j 

lO -^ CO CM rH iH 



CO <0 

CO t^ 

^ o 



^ ^ en o ^ 

r-( ■* CO (D 
<*J C- CM 



2lOr-l«OCM ^^^lO«>0 

COCM^Ol CDCMOOOt^ 

<nOOO)CD cocotoioio 



^tO-^^CO lOOOlO 

OCT»CMeoco a>^CM 
U> to to CM ^ 



3 

CM 

o 



to (A 



CO CM O) CO CO 
O m CM U3 
CM CD CM 



tn o 

to o> 



O »0 CM CM e^ 
CM CM to O t^ 

en o o) o> CD CO 



r-t W to ID 

•* i-H O en 
r- to lO 



t*OlCO'~OCO CDlDt* 

tOt^COCM^ CO^»H 

^ to CM CM M 



ID M 

en K 
o e* 



EH 



to ** ^ oj in 
eQ iO o -^ 

iH ID CM 



CM O 



LO CO 

CO 



cn'^coc^iD cococ^^-i-H 

COlOOOOlD CMCVJ^fDt^ 

coeno»coco ^-cocoid^;^ 



CO t- iH OD to 

CM to CO en to 

'* CO CM r-l f-i 



) 00 to • 
■ CO rH 



^ (O 

to to 

O r-( 



CD '<i' 00 rH ■* 

CO en CO •* 
en -^ ^ 



> o 



00'<*'t^CM oDcoocoen OLDt--oo t-ioo-* 

r-i i-i (J> ^ ■^ to to Oi <J) lO ODCO^COCM COCOCM 

oooicoeot- cotom'*^ coeocvJrHr-t 



•^ ID 

to CD 

O) lD 



CM C^ to ^ ■* 

to lo m to 

CO «# I— I 



CO GO o eg to 

A F« n (O 
t* cq r-( 



Q (O lO CO to 
to ^ CM CM 
CO CO ^ 



o 

to* 
to 



o 

CO 



o 



o 

o 



■p 



cc to 
t- o> 

ID to 



C- CO 

■^ o 



^ to T*f to CM 

t- en t- lo LO 

C^ CO CO t- CD 



to t^ o ■* o 

to C^ to CO t* 
f- CO t* CD CO 



a? to f-t -^ CD 

^ to C^ CO ^ 
t- C^ to CO CD 



^ O (3> t-- to 
lO r-i t-i CD i-i 



Ol Ol CM ID ■^ 
CM eo iH -^ CM 
CO LO ID ■<j' -^ 



cni ld CM 01 c^ 

ID to t- ID CO 
lO ID •* ^ CO 



CO t- ID CO ^ 

CO en CM to o 

to CM CM rH r^ 



■* -^ to O I 
'* t- o 5« . 

CO CM CM rH 



CM to en en e^ 

CM ID C- CM ^ 
CO CM ,-t rH r-t 



CM to lO to 
CO ■* rH 



-D 

d 



CM t- 

cn o 



!S 3 



rH to oi e- ID 

ID Q O eg 

ID to rH 



00 
ID 

eo 

CO 

ID 



p 
o 



CO -^ CO ^ Oi 

ID o en CO c^ 

CO to CO CO ID 



en C- rH t#< tr- 
io Oi OJ CM CO 
lO '!*« -^ ■* CO 



rH rH tD en CO 
O CM CO ID 00 
fO CM rH rH 



CM o a> to CM to d 

* CM rH 3 



> 
o 
en ■<*' en -^ 
c^ CO CO en -a 
I I I I 

ID O lD O W 
f~ (D CO CTl Ol 






■* a> f 

■<*• en rH rH CM 

I I I I I 

O ID O ID O 



o> "^ CT) *# en 

CM to to ^' ^ 

I I I J I 

ID O LD O lD 

CM to to ^ <?* 



•^ en ^ O) "* 

ID ID (D CO t- 

I I I I I 

O ID O ID O 

ID ID CO CO C- 



a> ■^ a> ^ 

c^ 00 CO en ■<* 

I I I I 

irj O LD o ID 

c^ 00 CO o> <r. 



52 



National Resources Planning Board 



at a> -^ •* lo 
(O O I'J o> »o 
(H to OJ ^ ^ 



O »H to O CJ 
CO CM ^ to O) 

o o o> CO e^ 



wiocnmt- oi*-it£)cM 

C-. CO ^J* to W r-t r-l 



C* to O -^ 'H 

CNj in o •* o> 

^ C\i W rH O 

i-H r-H i-H (-4 r-l 



■* CM O CO to 
to to CO rH E^ 

O CD CO CO t>- 



BOeO-^OtO rHr^eO<M^ 
rHtOtO^t* CO*-4mCS} 

e- U3 rjt to eg rH .-t 



10 

o 
o 






r-4CJOrHkO lOlOCOr-4lO tOC^tOt^O rHtOtOCO^ 

COOlOC^ I^O>cOOiO iHOiCOtOtO t-CftlOr-l 

OCJr-t»-HO a>COCOCOt^ tO-^'J'eOCJ f* 



^ go 
to CM 

N lO 



U^CJtO^to COtO(^)Or^ 
tOU3OU300 OU3NCOU3 

OrHiHOO* O>C0COt-tO 



^•HtOtO^ ^bONtOtO 

IT) lO ^ CO CM r-l 



3S 



(00>0^0> tOt-r-liOt- 
OiOtOOlrH tOlOOt^C*- 

<nrHO<na> cocoootou) 



O 0> CO to <o 



tOCJi-HCOC- r-ie^-^OJ'^ 

UJtOOCMC- lOrHOlOCO 

(7>000>co coootoinio 



C7> CM ^ C- to 
^ C^ CO to o 
lO ^ to CM CM 



to in »-l r-l CM 
rH to lO r-t 



,-i to 

rH «> 

•> « 



to to ^ C* (O 

rH O eO OO to 
O) O 0> OS CO 



<Moc~a>if> ,Ht>-ioioio rHintooto 

tOr-trHOO) CJ'J'CMtOtO QlOCMrH 

COr-tOtOiO ua^lOCMfH •-* 



o o 



tOtOtO--!}<lO '^CMoOOC^ 

tOeOo>t^'*" CMlOCMr-llO 

COOlCOCOCO C^tOtOtOiO 



to Q CO ^ '^ 
0> CO CM rH -* 
<« to CO CM rH 



in lo CO to CM 

CO *# CM rH 



CM S 

^ to 
o -^ 



o 

(O 



COtOrHtOtO tOiOlO^eO 

ocncoinco •^'^tocoto 
oocoQOGOt^ (Ototomio 



in CM CM <o ca 

CM GO to CO CM 
•* to CM rH rH 



tn CO 

■* CO 

en 00 



^ to *^ a:> Oi OCJt^CMrH rHCMOlCOO -"a^CMrHC^rH 

c-cotD'tf*tn toinototo lOrHCMino tomcM 

t^GOrot^tO tOtOtOlO'* Ti<tOCM^rH 



U> lO 

o t- 
o> to 



•^t^tOrHtO OC0t*-0>CM 

(OtOlOt^C~- C-CJCOOOt- 

f-COt-tOtO tOtOiO'*'* 



C^lOinOrH Ot^tOtOrH 

int^oiiooi ootOrH 

to CM rH rH 



rHCoo>oco coomtom ajtorHcom ^- — 

inmt-OJOO ^ t-i »~i O (Ji rHtOtOrHrH inCM 

c^t^tototD totommto tocMr-irH 



C-- GO to lO rH 



o>rHOmcT> ^oir-opto 

incOOOtO eOeOtoCMin 

totot-b-to tomio^to 



to to to cp . 

t*- o» ^ ^ < 

C^ ,~i ^ r-t 



51 § 



O to 



^ o ^ 

^ 0> .H rH CVJ 
till! 

O LO O i^ 3 

rH ■-* N 



G> ^ CTJ ^ 0> 

CJ CO eo ^ Tj« 
I I I I I 



CT) ^ o> ^ 

t^ OO CO O) 

1 ' ' ' 

in o lo Q 

t* CO CO OT 



o 

EH 






I o 



Estimates of Future Population oi the rultcd States, 1940-2000 



53 



<0 KD Q (O '^ 
0> UO ■* 03 ^ 
CD «5 CM 0> CO 



CO CO t^ o> l^J 

0> to rH CO CJ 
lO O to f* «3 



in rH t^ LO o 
oi to CO to O 
c\J to O to eo 



^OJlO^^ -^-^COCOCU CMr-tCftt^CD 

H r-t ^ r-t rH rH r-4 



^ r-l r-1 (H ^ I 



to «3 to ■* in to 

C- ^ O rH CNJ CO 
^ CO CO CM OJ 

o 



O^OtOfH OiOC^tOCNJ 

lOOODtOtO ^CMCOlO't* 



e^ <D f^ t- t^ 



t- t> (O to to 



OOlOtOCTjt^ .-ItDlO^m 

coojcoirsoj cocMinyjcn 
'j*CMoir-io o^o>co(0 



tDr-ir-ie-:M -^Ocococsj rn 
0^«30t0 c-OfHa>w to 

OOltnOLO rHC^JCOiH ^ 



^ in ,j« ^ -^ 



•d^ CO CJ CJ C\J 



CO Ol CO CO to 



O en 

CM -Ji 

r- to 



to CM lO t^ t* 

CO 0> ^ lO to 

to t- '^ lO ^ 

C- C-- t- t^ t>- 



,-* CM CO O 00 

to ot tr> t- \a 

CM CD to m <# 

t^ to to to to 



C- CM CO CM tJ< 

CO CO to E^ '^ 

O Oi c^ **• o 

^ tJ* \J* ^ tJ* 



t- CO CM rH O 
to to to Nt< Q 
'^ O O o> ^ 

* • « M • 

to CO CO C\. CM 



CO ■* to to O 



O Ol 0> GO to 



U^ 113 to «-t ^ 
to f-t U5 to CM 
0> O t^ rH 



CO CM 
CJ O 
CM O 



Irt to to Oi fO 

CO CO 'J* O O 

,H to lO ^ CM 

t- t- t> t- t- 



tji -^ to to cn 

rH O ^- O CJ> 

cr> t- to to CM 

to to to to to 



CM -* rH 03 CD 

rH CM in lA CM 
CD f- •*• C7> ^ 



-■O ■* ^ to ^') 



CM to CO CM lO 
O ^ rH ^ e^ 
1-1 i-H ^ to CO 



to o CO t^ y3 

,-H Oi to CM CO 

o> ^ to c^ e^ 



to eO to CM O 



o^ O en f- u5 



lo -^ in -^ to 

^ CO Oi ^ CO 

O If) CO rH 00 

t^ C^ C* C-- to 



to CM CO CM •* 

CM ^ O ^ rH 

t-- r- t^ <* in 

CO to to to in 



c- c^ e^ to eo 

to to to »* to 

to ^ cj> to o 

to "<i* to to to 



to CO to o> ^ 

CO CM iH CO '^ 

r-4 CM CO O CM 

CO to CM r^ O 



lO rH O t- CM 

D- to t«- ^ iH 

t- in a> to to 

o o CO ^- in 



I rH to in I 
I t^ to t-t 



in to O t^ CO 

in CO to CM o> 

a> to r-t CO to 

to t^ c- to to 



to en CO r-t Ol 

to t- t** ^ to 

f- t- lO'tO r-1 

to to CO m tn 



-p -p 

■H Oj 



CO'i'CMCnCM C^COtOOO'* Oi-*tO<MiH 

c^cMcoc^m e^co-^^io '.o -^ to lO >~i 
coa>coo5f-H coojCM'S'iH r-icnmocn 



lO to to CM to 



COCOrHOrH i-tOJCPtO'** 



-^ CO i-i to ■ 
o to o to " 

r-l to to rH 



CM in 
o o 

tn to 



CM CM rt O 0> 
CM CM rH ^ CO 

CO rH on to c- 



to O OS o in 

o w to Oi o 
a> to c^ CM to 



tot-tototo totommin 



to CO <?> CM CD 

o o m t- ^ 

CD to 0> O CM 



mtOCMOCTJ tOCMCMTjttO 



o> to to to u> 



I to CO CO in 



CM ,-1 O rH rH 



o a> t^ to ^ 



to ^ Oi O "* 
to CD rH CM rH 

en ^ in rH 



Ol t^ 
co to 



O m uJ '=*' w 

CO O Cm CO CO 

in CO to to t* 



en -^ <# a> to 

^ O X to CM 

to CO CO t- r- 



totototcto tDininii>in 



rH to in CO o 

■^ ^ tn t- to 
CO en o f-H o> 



COt^O^tOO rHCOCntOCM 

COincOOtn r-lOltOrHrH 

05tOCMt-cO f-CM-^rH 



rH O rH rH O 



Oi CO f- in *** 



O 05 CO O CO 
a> rH C^ to CM 

CM to to e*- to 



01 O to CO o 
J3 US •* to to 
CO ^ CO CO oi 



tototototo mmtOLoin 



to ■:*< rH O CO 

rH tp to cn to 

O O <-< CO to 



CM to CO CM rH 



eO CM C^ rH O 
in tjj t- rH rH 

c* to cfi o to 



tocMcocoto tocnc7»o> 
oic^toinco 'I'tO'^oj 

rHOt^mO> COrH'^ 



O rH rH rH O 



oi CO to in CO 



^ to CM en to 

CM to CM C*- O 

i-H to t^ in CO 



to to -^ CO CM 
C^ CO CO to o 

Tt< en Oi to o 



totototcm ininininin 



« CM to CO to 
CM in CO C» CM 
rH rH OD CM f- 



CJ CO CM rH O 



to CO CO ■* rH 
CM rH O U) ^- 

t^ rH CM in in 



ro CO O CO O) 
rH CM rH en ^ 

to in m o '^ 



rH CM rH O Cft 



CO t- to in to 



CM rH m ^ 0> 
CM rH CO CO 
rH rH CO 



to to to m ■^ 
c^ rH t>- ifl in 

rH c- m C- '*' 



S3> CO CO in 
to CD ^ CO 

en o -^ rH to 



totototoLO intoiom-:!* 



eo to to CO en 

CO t- CO lO rH 
CM OO CM ^O f- 



CM CO rH O rH 



O LO CM to rH 
O in C- to rH 
CM CO t- CO O 



O CM rH O O 
!>• to Ol CM CM 
O CO Oi ^ rH 



CO t- U5 '^ to 



■=J* cn O oD OJ 

,-H lO to C^ 

o cr> ^ 



O GO CO in t- 

tO to ^ Q ^ 

CM in t^ ^ o> 

to CO in in in 



rH to to to ' 

rH lO CM CD ■* 

to in in ^ ^ 



o o -^ O *H 
en 00 in ^ Lj 

0> C^ «> S CM 

* * ^ * * 

^ -t O r^ CM 

-H rH rt ;q ^ 



■^ to ?0 to CM 

■^ CO in o t- 

^ en o CO ■^ 

rH O O en CO 



in in o> CM CM 
CM o o o to 
CO t- CM o o> 



to '^ Oi O CO 

<# CM o ^- 
c^ to to 



t^ to in ^ CO r-l 



otOrHOiC'j intoi>o«o 

O'^QOrH rHtOtOrHlO 

rHt-^CnrH tOtOOltOCM 

toiominto lom***"* 



CM in to -* OD 
^ CO '^ to 00 

in to f- to m 



t* CM in cc in 
a> "^ ■^ 00 in 

O CM in t^ CM 



00»HCMrH rHQencOCO 



t- ■^ CO t- o 


■* ^ O- O 00 


fR 


lO ^ CM O t- 


O f- t*- t- rH 




CM CD C-- CO m 


in t- CM 





■ Oi Tt« (O CM i-t 



^ § 



in 0> CM O CM 

in rH in CO en 

to *** o> rH to 

tn m in CO m 



rH O «> 0> C7> 

in t- ^ rH O 

■^ O t^ •* eM 

to in ^ ^ ^ 



^ o> ^ 

^ O rH rH CO 
I I I I I 

O in o »n O 

rH rH CM 



OJ ^ oi ^ o> 

CM to to ■»*« ^ 

I I I t I 

in o in o in 

CM to to ^ •* 



■*< o> rj* 0-, •<*• 

in in to tjj t^ 

I I I I I 

o in o lo o 

m lO to 'o c^ 



en ^ en **< 
f- CO CO tn -B 



i^ 



-C* 0» rH rH CM 
I I I I I 

O in o m o 



o *l< o> ^ en 

CM to to -* -^ 

I t I I t 

m O m o in 

CM S> (O ^ Tj« 



536726 0-43-5 



54 



National Resources Planning Board 



lO t^ CD <0 rH 
N 0> CO ■* (O 

CNJ fO ^ lO CT> 



(O O lO -^ C-- 

in to to t~ 

o> o> to 



to ic -^ to ca .-i 






CO ^ 0> CO 00 Ok O I 

> '^ to oi CM 9 n < 



8„ O M lO lO 

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OD ^ CM (H 

t- t- r- c- 



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r-(Da>r-)tO (-tOOtO^i 

OtOlJ^co^Q mtomcH 



h-to<ototo tOlO^tOtO 



Oi r-l 



e^ooo*a> oocooto 

oc»eN.aBo> f-coeo 

• • •■ ^ • « 

(O 5j< ^ to OJ rH 



^ to 

o <* 



OitOO>00> I0t0r-*0»CO 



to t* to ■* ^ 
to t- in to ■«?• 

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Tj< tn o> a> to 

Ol »-i O CVJ rH 
(O to 1/5 rH 



c^ r- t-- c- c- 



tO to (£> to to 



lO ^3- Tl* ■<*« ^ 



■* to 
t- to 

to CM 



(Ht^lOCviCSJ OOiHOOtO 

tototocht^ tococM 

Irt Tj« ^ to CVJ r-l 



CO CO 


CO to lo to o 

O CO oi to ^ 

O OJ rH O CO 


to 00 CJ) CO r-t 

lO U3 lO to O 
U5 to to CO iH 


to to C- Lf5 CO 
^ rH ■* "^ «3 
Cy r- t- to to 


CO ^ CO to ■* 
t* O to i-H rH 
CM CM *** »H 


CM 


c- ^ 


to t- t- t^ to 


to to to to to 


LO ^ ■^ ■* CO 


CM ^ 


to 



to to 

<o m 



COCMtOt^O OltOOOCMtO 

t~to^tDco mmtoto 

c7)Otoioio lor-cg 

^ lO ^ eo c\j i-H 



to eg 

C^ CM 



CO O to ^ CM 
to 0> lO ^ ■* 
t*- .-t O CO lO 



1^ OOlOC-rHtO CO'J'tDO; CO 

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I'J'Cv^lO 0>r-«0*i-tCM Or-t^r-i 



X' c- c^ to to 



to to to to lO 



^ lO ^ •* to 



U3 to 
i-H f-i 
to CO 



COtO(Z)MU3 tOtOi-HCOiO rH 

0> to CM OO 00 -" — —.- 

to i-« CM to to 



m to ^ to CM ^ 



cM^^-lOto r-i(j>coooio 

COlDOc-ltO CM^tO'^'C^ 

tOOCOi«tO ^^CM^O 



Oi lO CM ■^ CO 
C^ Ol ^ to CM 

to to t- o> OJ 



»H O O f- .-( 
,-1 ^ O CTl <-t 

o o ^ 



tOf-tOtOtO tOtOtOlOiO lOiO'^tOCM i-HrH 



COb-CNJcO-^ CMtOlOrHlO 

OOrHCMrH tOOO-^tO 

lOC^O^CM tOtOCM 

* • « * * » 

lO ^ ^ CO CM ,H 



o o 

CM O 



tOCMoiCnCsI ^tQCJ>tDOJ 

mOOEOr-t C--rHOlOCM 

lOOOtOoO-^ -^itOlOrHlO 



to Tj* rH ^ t-- 
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tiJ rH lO to to 



CM rH 00 CO O 
to lO LO OO r-« 

c^ o> to 



tOtOtOtO, to tOtOlClOlO lOlO^COCM ,-i 



CO O 
O Ol 



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lO "S* CO CM CM r-l 



■p 

B 

o 



t^(0 
CO 



eo^iocoio tooioo^co 

«MO»OaOtO CO^rHCMrH 

tOlOtOtO^ (OlOC^tOCO 



CM csi in m lO 
oo o to ^ c- 
to en rH eo ^ 



rH CO E^ -<** O 
in m o c^ <-< 

to 00 »o 



tototototo tomininin in^'J'tocM ^h 



CM^T^^tO cnrHtO'^ 

a>totocM>-i cMtoa>^ 

t^,-t-ti*t>-0 CMiOr-l 

'S* ■* to CM CM ^ 



O (O 

^ o 

GO Ol 

to o 

CO 



rHCOCMtOW cnC«-0**»H tOCOTpCMin CJCMt-CMCO 

incMco-^to toincn»-t^ ■^cncMf-eo cotoc~-t^ 

oeoio^to mcMtooiio rH**cooto ^t-cj 

«•*»• ***M4t *«*•■« • 

(ototototo inininiou) Ln-4<cococM ^h 



OCMCOtOlO •<*'CDt001 

t^Oiniooo t^ocoto 

^CnCMlOCO O^rH 

« « * * * « 

"S» to CO CM f-i ^ 



to lO 
to i-l 



to CO 0> CM to 
Ch t- to ,H CO 

00 to ■^ to lU 



00 C7) CJ to 00 



tOO>'iC\Jt^ CMOtOOtO 

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to ^ CM rH CO 
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CO 'J' rH O ' 

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r-4 to CM 



intotoioin lotommtj* ■^cococMrH 



to t- 

i-t ■* 

■* XI 

to in 



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o> 



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to o> 



tDOOOWi-H C^tOtOe^f-H OCM^CMtO CMt^f^tOlO 

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to cvT 



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to n 



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tnmininto lomm^^ eotocMCMr-t 





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9 


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to rH CO CO O 


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to 


T> 


If^ O 


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to 


lO to 


a 


in m m to in 


m in -^ -* •* 


to CM CM rH rH 




in 


in to 



^(n^cn'<t« (ntj<a>^ 

inmtotot^ r-oo(EOi' 

o u> o lo o - - « 

lo m to to t^ 



^ o> -* 

^ O r-l «H CM 
I I I I I 

o in o lO o 

r^ «-l CM 



o» ^ o» * o> 

W (O CO »«« ■<*• 

I I I I t 

m o in o lO 

CM to to ^ T^ 



^ C» ■«*• (J> t|i 

m lo to to t^ 

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O* ^ Ol ^ 

c^ CD CO en •« 

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in o m o in 

t- CO 00 <n oi 



lutiliKltts of Future I'opiildtloii of tin I'liitcl SUlti-'i, 1 !).'/) 2001) 



55 



t£) CO t- 0> <^ 

rH lO C^ U3 CO 
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PJ CO CO O i^J 



to <* CSJ CvJ «> 
■<i< to CT» to 
t- CO Cs) 



(DU3«JtO(D (OiOmifiiO uO^tOCOW rH 






CO •* 



U5 to 00 W «) 

c\j CM irj in 00 

»H to r^ O O) 



to C3 t^ m CM 
to to lO CT> O 
CO to eO iH CM 



(OCDtOtOm lOtniAU>lO 



■^ O CM lO »0 

to CM to rH CD 

r-4 00 C» to Oi 

m ■* to (O CM 



C- t- C- CO CJl 
'^ CO c- O t^ 
eg •t}* to CO <-H 



O Ol "H C7> CM 
to C3 C- O CM 
Oj (D ^ ^ '^ 



C- O to CM CO 
r-t rH O ^ to 
r-* CM to to to 



O O CM ^ lO 

rH 00 to in 

(O t^ CM 



'-DtotototD ioiomi/>i-o in^J'totocM ^ 



t]r> lO 
to to 



m m -^ lo r-« 
to to to o o> 

0> ^ O O 00 



•<*• to CO CO rH 

to C7> ■^ t- to 
to to CM CM CM 



mtotutom micminin 



CO to lO to CO 

CM CM m to to 

O OJ t- to f-l 

ui •* to CO to 



CM t^ to lO to 

Ol OJ CM O ^ 

o to to CM cn 

CO to to to m 



U5 m to lo lo 



CO to O) to en 



^ to to to CM rH 



^ OD 
CM '^J 



t- CM CO O 00 

rH t^ r^ iH CO 

CO O O cn to 



lO to CM 0> O 

c J to to to in 
■»*' ra po »o .-) 



flO to CM O -4 

SIO 03 00 iH 
O ^ 00 O 



mtotomtn mmiomin ■^■<^'*<toto 



00 CO ^ CO c^ 
CJ> to CM CO O 
OJ to CM Ol t- 



t- CM ■«* O to 
lO O O Q CM 

m to ^ ^ ^ 



lOtotoioio loioiom^ 



OCMin'i'co mcot^i 

COOlf-HrHOl si':? 9. 

UC'Jr-lCMCM tOtOCM 

* * * • • • 

^ -^ Tf to CM r-4 



CO to to to C7> 

CM CM CM O ^ 

t~ a Oi t> ^ 

\a V3 \si \a \£i mmmio' 



Oi w m o to 

O <0 en O rH 
CM ■* rt t^ CO 

• * * « » 

<4i ^ ^ lO CM 



r-l ^ t- to 00 

in to o to 00 

CJJ CM O C^ l^ 



P^ 00 'J' t- oo 
■^ in t^ r-1 t^ 

to to ^ t- to 



to C- lO to o 
to in CT» O <D 

to lO t^ O o 



intotoinio ininin'fl*'* ^^cotocM r-i 



<MtnCM-*(0 ^lOrHOW 

SCOCDOOi-t tOCMOktOtH 

■*cMinw tot^.H'^tn 

«*•*« «^4t«« «*«•>• 

mmmmin inmin'*'*** '^•■^•'j'tocM 



to C^ .-H lO ■<*< 
lO rH UJ rH t^ 

00 o c*- to to 



CO 00 ^ CO CO 
CJ> CM 00 to CM 

to in t- ^ CD 



lotommm mmtj*^^ 



O CO CO CM b- 

^ O -^ en o 

CO cj in to cc 

■4> -* to CJ r-i 



in rH O ■* to 
to cH t^ to 
O to rH 



CM %0 

CM to 



totoococo co*oeo«io oocoo>coo 

OCMopmCM tOCMtOt*h* CMOf-tCOfH 

int-'c'to^ -^i^toiotot^ cJiincnocM 

minioinm \n \n -^ -^ ^ ^^lOtocM 



in CM -^ to -<** 
in to to o to 
to t^ to c^ t^ 



OJtO^OlO ^cO'^tOCO 

totocoiOr-i e^^oJocM 
inoQinoio ^os«-<'"-JtD 



minmiom in-^^-^m 



to ■^ t>- CM tO 

Sin ^ to 



to \o 

in 00 
O a> 



to CO CM CO ■# 

O CO t^ 'i' o> 
•^ rn tri tP ^ 



m m m in m 



to r-H C- CM to 

in f- CM -^ in 

to to '^ CD O 



to CJ> CO J3 to 
O »-* Oi f-H CO 
C^ CM ^ £-- 0> 



in <* tj* fd' m 



r*< Tjf to CM ^ 



'D ip ,^ ^ to 

rH tt< CM to O 

tj< to f* t^ to 

m in in m m 



rH to t^ m CM 
b- CO O CM ■* 


O O^ CO Ol to 


«> CM ■«*< Q 

e^ CT) to to 


O ■* Ch CM o 


00 in o i-H <o 


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flO CO <-t 



^ tj« in in ^ 



^ to CM CM rH 



,H 0> CM to -** 

CC t- to rH CO 

^ to ■* in to 

in in in in in 



CM m 0> CM to 
O to Oi to CM 
t> ^ CD iH CO 

^ • • * • 

■* ■^ •<*< in ■* 



to CM to t^ CO 

O ^- f* to r-t 

^ t- O •'j' CO 

^ to to CM rH 



CO to e- OB to 
O to CO to o 
to f- t- to en 

* * * •! « 

in in in in ^ 



CM tJ* *-H iH C-- 

CM to i-H m to 

to o CM t^ to 

^ in m ■* -^ 



rH f-« to ^ t^ 
C73 c- w c- to 
c- rH in O) to 

M « • « » 

to to CM rH r^ 



C- CO t- to CM 
in lO CM CM 
r- to rH 



O O CM to CO 

CO C^ to O CM 

O ^ in T" ^- 

in in in in -4* 



to ^ to to t^ 

CT> ^ o> o w 

■<j< (T» rH o» m 

■«*^ ■<*< in ■* ■* 



in to to in ■*• 

^ CM to to tj> 

cj> to t- CM in 

eo to CM CM ,-j 



r- O -^ t- o> 
<7> O to to m 
to CO to o> to 



CM «> « Ok <0 

rH r^ « «^ *o 

r- CM a> ^ a» 



Ol dj to rH to 

m CO ^ in lO 

to CO to t- I-) 



O O rH CM CM 
O) ■^ fH CM 

to to ,-t 



m m m •«** ^ 



CM C^ CM CM '.O 

to C^ to 0> LO 

tJ* to (J» to r-« 

in in ^ ^ m 



in u» ^ ■# tn 



O CM f- o> en 

lO O to to rH 
to 0> lO o lO 

• • ■> M • 

in ^ »** ^ to 



to CM CM rH f-H 




CM 

to 


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ci 

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in lO 

t£) 


rH m o lo '*' 
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in to U5 P4 CM 

in en a» CM 

to CM 




o en 

lO U3 



S§: 



I CO en to 

I CJ -* CM 

rt m Tj« t- in 

ifj in m *»» -^ 



^ in Ti* ^ ^ 



^ o in CO in 

cQ Ok to m lO 

^ a> ic en to 

to CM CM r^ rH 



to CM CM r-1 rH 



»o (c lO in a> 

■* ■* CM to o 
r-l C^ CM to CM 

inm^i^in mm^-^co tocMCMrHrn 



ro CM to to lO 
CO to to •^J' r-t 

CM ■* e^ in o 



O lO to to to 
en CM t- '* c> 
CM o to rH m 



rH lO 00 CO CM 
U3 t^ rH 0> CO 

ti cn c^ rH to 



m ^ ^ lo m 



CO C- CO •** O 
m to m to CM 
en to rH to CM 



m to '# CM rH 
to to rH CD O 

CO to CO to o 



^■^^tOtO CMCMrH-HtH 



CM (o ^ en CM 

E^ in Ol rH 

in CM 



to e- 
t- en 



o tf> ^ ■* o 

^ t- to ^ to 

rH r* in o to 

in ^ ■^ in in 



CM rH O CO CM 

t- to rH c^ in 

O C^ OM CO CM 

to ■* Tt< to CO 



to to ,-1 \J^ t- 



CM CM rH t-H r-t 



§ § 



t-. ^ CM Tt» Ln 
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to t^ CM Tj« O 



rH ^ ^ in m in 



CO O ■* CO to 
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CO ■^jt en '<*' to 


00 o CM r^ to 


CO 


u 


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to in m rH t- 








to t- 


in o to to CO 


^ CM 


'<»' 


TJ 


o c- 


« » » « 




• 


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CM CM rH rH 




to 


in to 



♦ ^ t- to to 

(M t- to to rt 
« lO O lO rH 



CM t*- ^ lO to 

CO to ■* « o 

b- CM t- to O 



to * en CM lo 

^ lO 00 t- CM 
to O <0 to Ok 



^^eOtOtO CMCMrHiH 



■P 

S2; 



^ 0> rH rH CM 

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rH rH CM 



0> ^ 0> '^ Oi 

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1 I I I I 

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CM CO to ^ •;** 



•* 0> ■=*• CT) ^ 

m in to to t^ 

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in lo to to t^ 



oj ^ o* ^ 

t- CO CO Oi •*) 

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lO O lO O U3 

t- (D CO <n oi 



t5 

o o 



O lO O lO o 



CT> ^ 0> "^ 0» 

CM to to "ti* ** 

I I I I I 

lo Q in o U3 

CM to to ^ ^ 



•w* o» -^ en Tp 

in in to to t- 

I I I I I 

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Naiional Resources Plavning Board 






«j r-» «3< r- o 

^ m cvi <jj ,-1 

r-l ^ ^ 



to to 

to QO 

to o 



o 



r- CO f J c- 01 

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o o to 



lO «• 



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c- oi to 



r-t a> 
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lO M C- O t^ 
t^ ^ O t- 

m CO to 



in CD 
o <o 



■<**■<** O) o to 
(H ^ CO to 
^ t^ OJ 



^ 

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o eo 

to tf> 
en «) 



CO cvj en to CO 

0> to N lO 

Cw ID CSJ 



in S 



CD ■* ^ 0> lO 

CO m o 'S* 

•H lO CJ 



CO o 



CO ^ CO r-H 
CO 0> CO ^ 
0> ■# iH 



CM t- (O ^ 
CO U3 LO rt 
CO ■* ,-H 



o 

to 



S 2 



CO 00 
U5 to 



OS 



IS 



O V lA CD CO 
*0 r-l e\) eg 
"O M rH 



•P 

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e- to 
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r-t lo Oi e-- lo 

U5 O C M 
ll^ ^ rH 



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t. 


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> 


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CO CM 
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^ 
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E e 



Ksfiiiiafey of Future Populafioii of flu Cnititl Sfattx, ] 940-2000 



57 



rH o ^ o in 

'■A r-t 00 CO CO 

Si to CO dn to 



«3 iH »-H C-- r^ 
t- r-( PJ UJ W 

O lo CO w to 



t^ a> lo i-H CT» 
ot a> Oi '^ fo 



O CO c- C 

^ o <-« ^ w 

in o> r-* <o 



oj o 

^ o 

CO c^ 



^ CO tvj C\J w 



Ca r-l 0> CO c^ 






*-t «j in oi e^ 

00 Oi ^ O o* 

r-t t^ c^ O U3 

CO lO ^ I" w 



C\J CO *-t C^J lO 

in a> ^ CM CM 

i-» CO CO '* .-1 



,-( i-H CO to a> 

C- O t- 0> lO 
m Ol ^ ^ 'J* 



coooicnc- i-hc^o 



^ 1^ ^ ^ ^ 



eo CO CVJ C\. CM 



rH O CO CO C- 



CV -O ro c> CM 
CM CVJ t^ C^ CM 
CM CD ^ to CM 



CD r> T*< CM a> 

to 05 to CD CM 
Ok lO to to CO 



CD CM C^ 00 lO 
rH '^ to ':0 O 
O O ■* to t^ 



P-C--C~-C-t^ COtOtoCOtO (DlO^- 



«J rH CD ■«*< CM 

f- CM ^ CO CM 

t^ CD -^ r-t CO 

CO ^ ^ ^ CO 



.H O 0> «3« Ol 

rO CD O W ■* 

a> ID CO CD rH 

rj CM CM CM CvJ 



-^ to ^ •-* ^t* 

c^ to in o» in 

eo ■<*' r- cvj CM 

CJ Oi Oi Ji t~ 



CM to to to 'S* 
Ol CD r-* ^ CM 
00 ^ Ol CM 



CM CM 
CO CD 
OJ to 



CD -^ 'S* CO to 

CM m Ol -^ CO 

O ^ eo CM cn 

C^ t^ t- t- CO 



O 0> to t- CM 
CM O CM CM CO 

CO ^ ■^ -a* ,-t 

• ••••« 

CO CD CD CO CO 



CO O CO CM O 

f^ (-1 CO o CO 

CM C^ CD U^ to 

in ^ rr* Tji CO 



i-t O rH rH CM 

to CO OJ CO ,-( 

lO ■<** ^ CD O 

CO -^ -^ to so 



CM in CO CM to 

cj oi in CM o 

<0 CD t* to CO 

CM CM CM CM O 



O t~ to CO CM 
CO r^ CJl e^ CO 
t* eO r-t CO CO 

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OJ O O CO CO 



O O CO CD r-l 

to in r-l tj> CM 
^ CvJ CO rH 



CO o 
CO to 
CD in 



'^ O CJl m m 

O O in CD -^ 

05 ^ CM OJ CD 

CO t^ C^ CO CD 



CO Tf lo oi m 

"* t^ cr> in CO 

^ Tj* ^Jf CM to 

■> It « K « 

CO CO CD CO m 



CM ,H OJ CM to 

O in CO rH CO 

Oi i-H Ol i-H ^ 

■V Lfj ■(31 ^ CO 



CM ■<:}< O 'i' CO 

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to CM CO O CD 

to ■<}* lO CO CM 



CO i-H ^ CO CO 

CO in lo in c- 
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t- cj t^ CO en 

f- OJ CM r-t »-t 

CO t* in CM CM 

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to U3 CO CM t* 
r-t CM in t> rH 

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tn to 



S^^i^r*^ -Ht-ocMin cocoeooj^ 

5?SPS^— ^'J'tOLOCM inCMCOC-0> 

cocMOCD'^ in^cO'^O tOtOtncDtn 

coC-c^cDCD coco^omin inin-^tocsT 



m ■«*♦ in rH ■<:*' 
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t- O CD CD rH 
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OS m CD f-i o; 



CM -^ m *-H in 

CD CM to CJ ^ 
^ rH O ^ CO 



O CM r-l ■# in 
CM CO t^ -^ rH 
CO CO CD pH 



to to CO CM CM 



c\i CM O O O 



r- CM 

t> OS 
CM t- 



■^OcOCO^ COmcJJCOCM rHOCOtOOl 

r-t^COOJ'^ CDCOi-hOCTJ ■^OJcHCOi-H 

e-ocD'^in LOtovoi-H^ mcctoinco 

tof-cDCDCD cocoiomm m-^j'-^cocM 



cjj a. in m m 

O C31 in t^ o> 

X- O t^ CO Ol 

CM to CM CM CM 



to ■># O ^ rH 

to c^ in CO m 

CD OJ CM O ^ 



t^t0^^tOcO OrH^t^in 

OJiOcOcnOJ C^C-CDCMt-t 

^cocMt-o eOCOini-l 

O OJ CO CD in « rH 



rHt-t*>^CO OCMf-C^CM C--COCOmC^ 

COOJ»-lC^CM tO^-C~CDC7) om^rHt- 

■^tDinmcD -^mr-iinco ocoojcmco 

coco<xicDcD coinminin in^tococM 



CO CM ^ m oj 
in >- rH in o 
f-i c^ cr o c^ 



in o CO oD o 
to in to CO t> 

O CO CM CO t^ 



to to o in CO 

■^ ro -* CD m 

O flo in »-H t-- 



CM CM Oj ?0 CM 



O CD t^ CO ■^ 



Ol CO LO O CM 

en Q a* CM rH 
crj 3i ^ ^ 



o o 




CO CO 


c- -o in a. to 


en CM <JJ lO t^ 


CO CM 


rH in m CD ■* 


^ CO 


" * * * * 



fO CM O t- OJ 

rH to t- C7> '* 

CO CM CO t^ CM 

* * ^ « tt 

in in in in in 



CO CO CO CD *# 

E^ Ol i-t CO rjt 

OO CM CO OJ CM 

^ ^ to CM CM 



O CO O C- i-H 
f- CO O C^ CO 
CD 0> I—' C- rH 

r-t CM « CM f-H 



t- rH OJ lO OJ 
to (O rH to CO 
'?' to CO 0> CO 
• • • * ■ 
O rH ^ O O 



CM ^ to to O 

c^ o o OJ in 

CM CM a> C^ CM 

OJ cr> CD m ■<*< 



c^ -^ -^ o c 

CM to (O O ^ 

in c«. ^ rH 



OJ CO in o CO 

'^ O CO r-l in 
O CO CD iTj to 



O a> ^ t>- CO 

CO to OJ lO to 
CM t- OO CO O 



cL.'.occcoin lominmin 



OJ c^ OJ in CO 

CM CO to C7> to 

in OJ CO t^ o 

^ CO CO CJ CM 



0> ^ CD O OJ 
to CM CM O rH 

o i-H CO CM in 



CO CO OJ CD -* 

CD m -^ m a> 
■^ OJ rH m in 



f-^ CD CD (JJ c- 

'-0 CO CO CM <y> 
CO m ic CM m 



CM .-O Cv, r4 O 



»-< r-" i-H C 0> 



CO t^ to in to 



CM lO 








o at 

is 


CO CO Q t- in 

CO CJ) V< Oi CM 
I-H CD in CO ^ J 


C^ (0 t^ o> o 
cjj t^ in in rH 

C~- O) ■* rH t- 


to -^ Tj* 00 CM 
'J' CM CO to to 
CM C-- CM in c^ 


CO CD CO in in 


m in in in ■* 


■<^ ;0 CO CM r-l 



I-H in CO CO CO 
to in m OJ t- 
CM CD CM in in 



CO Lfj O C^ CM 
CO O CO CO CM 
O to C- CO O 



CO •# Cft CD to 

CO CD O t^ CO 

O C^l O "^ r^ 

CO C- CD ■* CO 



CD OJ rH X I 

Ln CD to t^ 

O CD CO 



o 
o 




^s 


t- m t- CO m 


^ O O C^ CM 






CM m CM CD l/J 




rH CO rH rH to 




t. 






o in CM GO ■* 


O to o CM in 


^ 












r-l 


rH 


CO CO in m lo 


CO in m ■* ■* 


■«J< CO CO CM r-t 



CM O ■^ O CM 

OJ 00 in O rH 

a* CM to tD Ol 

<-l <-* O rH CJ 



CD -S' ■:*< ^ t* 

•^ to in o ^- 

■* OJ O CO ■* 

<-t o o a; 00* 



O OJ CO ir: (T) 

to O <-• iH c*- 

CC C^ CM o o> 

c- CD in •# c 



to r^ a» o 00 



in r-l 

t- CM 

OJ t- 

CM CD 

m CO 



O ■<*' Q I-H I-H 

f^ t^ ■^ <y> r^ 
CO in in in CO 



t^ CO in CO OJ 
in CM to CO (O 

OJ ^ CO OJ -^ 

inin^'*^ COCOCMrHrH 



CM m CO ^ CO 
^ CO 'r* to CD 

in to c^ to in 

« * * • * 

O O r- CJ rH 



CD CO in 3) -o 

OJ "^ ^ CO m 

O CM lO >■ CM 

r-" O CTJ 00 CO 



f- ■^ (C t-- o 

in ■^ CM o C^ Q I 

CM CO ^ CO in in I 

r- in --r CO CM ^ 



in CM 
c to 

Ti« in 



in O) CM O CM 

in r-( in CO OJ 

to "4* 0> r-« CD 



rH O CD C7> O) 
li3 C- ^ rH O 
^ O C^ -^ CM 



to rH CO CD ,-1 
lO f-H OJ OJ f- 
t** O CO XI CM 



ininmcom \o ^a -^ ■^ ■^ tococMr-i> 



■<?'ajtJ' CJJ'tf*OJ'3*CT> 

^OrHi-lCM CMtOlO^^ 

■ I t I I 

Oinoino inomox- 

rHr-«CM CMtOCO-^'^ 



^ OJ ^ OJ ^ 

in in CD to c^ 

I I I I [' 

O in o i^j o 

irj in CO uj r- 



0> "T* C3l ^ 

c^ a) CO OJ o^j 

I I I I 

in o m o ^n 

C^ (t> X OJ CJJ 



':*« OJ ■<*' 

■*• OJ i-t r-t CM 

I I I I I 

c in o lO o 

rH r-l O. 



OJ ■* OJ ^ I 

CV' to cO '^ 

I I I I 

in Q in o ' 

CM CO CO ^ ■ 



^ OJ ^ (Jj ^ 

m in CD CO c^ 

I I J I I 

O tn (5 in o 

in m CO CO c^ 



58 



National Rfsnurces I'/arinivg Board 



to ^ ^ GO a> 
•^ 5? "5 o* 

lO Oi ^ 



CO O 
0> CM 
O lO 



flo csj to <M r- 
N r- iO cj CM 

P-t ^ CM r-l O 



^ CO r- ^ lo 

OD Q t^ V> \D 
CO (O CM O O 



<;oeMOcM«-i to at ^ vy r^ 
i-IOtOtO-M* toeototocM 



t^C-t^t^t- tC<C)*DU}U> (010^^*0 CMrH 



^ o 

i-l 00 



* « 



oi 



O <-l .-H Oi CO 
lO 0> i-t GO 

»o ^ -<r 



flo r- 



(C t^ t- c- to 



to ^ ^ rH Q 

to i-H .-* (O to 

tt> to ^ ^ rH 

(O to to (O to 



!*• t^ o ^ ^ 

C^ CO 0> CM to 

CO o> ^ lO o 

Ift ^ ^ ^ ^ 



lO ^ tt <-( flO 
CM (O » to r-( 
GO lO *0 p-t 



CM ^ 

o to 

to CM 



S *H O CM O 00 

X? f-« CD C^ CO 

5 CM O (O 

CM I-H 



to r-t 
to CM 

o> 



^- CD lO o o> 

Tjt to i^ CM in 

t^ rH o o> to 

to c*- t— to to 



r-l i-t CM CO t- 

■* iT) CO O CO 

to .-< rH CM C71 

to to to <o m 



(Z> ■«*< 03 OJ -^ 
(O r-C rH CO t- 

rH I*- cn t* CO 

• * * « • 

lO **♦ ^ ^ to 



r-( to CM to to 
CO O ■* "^ rH 

to ^ lO p-4 



o ^ 

to i-t 



to to to U5 t^ 

o c- to t^ 

o o> to 



t^ O ("J to ■^ 
CM to to t^ to 

to o o» to to 

« * « a « 

to c^ to to to 



a» cH «o »o CO 

C- CM to <0 to 
rH CJ CM O CM 

to to to to tO 



CO ;o ■<*• to o> 
lO to o to t^ 

00 rH CM U3 tL' 

^ lO iO ^ to 



■V •*« to f-l ■ 

CM t* CD CM I 
-•« CM ^ rH 



^ to ^ CD to 
i-H DO rH to 
OD CO lO 



CO i-t 
« i-H 
^ CO 



O t- CO to ■*< 

<D to 00 00 O 

u> c» to ao c\j 

« « » « « 

to to to to to 



CM lo o to n 



(O to to U) ' 



to to ^ CO CD 
CM t- to «0 CM 

to V o> •*> to 

* » » « « 
lO lO ^ -i^ to 



CM CM to lO 1 

o ■* ^ o . 

CJ rH ^ «-H 



CM 0> to r- lO 
^ CM CO U5 
to (D CM 



o to 

to CD 



lOOlOJCVt^ tOtOtOr-tCM 

^tOtOCyCM tOrHlOO^ 



CM -^ (Jt 03 to 
Tj« CO rH CM CM 

to cv c^ o> O 



00 CO 00 (D O 
C^ UJ 00 DO rH 

OJ O to 



O CO 

t^ to 
Oi o» 



tOtOtOtOtO COtOlOlOlO iCiO'J'tOCO 



* C-- CO O lO 

^ ^ to in 
m t- CM 



CM O 

m o 

O 2) 



CO CJ DC CM O 



CM CM to CM Oi 



O OD to CO rH 
O 0> OD t* CM 
^ O* CM lO l> 



to ^ to C^ O 

CM CM CM f- rH 
CD C7i to 



Oi CM 
CM CM 
t^ rH 



totctototo tommmm 



m ^ ^ (O CM rH 



r4 

6H 



^ CT> 00 to -^ 
0> CM O ■* 
lO to CM 



rH O 
^ rH 
t- CO 



O to CO to to 
to ^ »-t cji to 

0> CM to to CM 



in to to to to 



C3i 00 CO rH rH 
to rH to •* CM 

■c* r-t in CO m 



OiocMtjiT** inc^t^coco 

OtOCMCMrH OC^DOt^ 

rilOOCMin tOt^CM 



CO rH 
CO C-- 
^ CM 



in in m in m 



in ^ to to CM rH 



to ct; ^ ' 

C^ ^l" Ol 
rH lO rH 



rH t- J5 to to 
CM CM rH to t*- 

eo to ^ cj ^ 



f- to CO CO rH 

m CM rH O O 

M to o> to to 



O lO CD O 

m CO to to 

to to CM 



mtototoin miomtnio 



-<*' ^ to » M ,-i 



O CO c- ■* 1 
to o to to 

O in rH 



to IS 

to CM 



'c in a: ■^ -J* 
O CM CO o en 

CJ> <*< CM in rH 



cvj ■* cNj en ^ 
t^ CO o> o> cr5 

to Ol to to CO 



U> CM ^ rH lO 
r-t to ■^ to to 
<• CO to to CO 



lOtotDinLO inininin-M* -^coeocMr-. rn 



to O * C4 to lO 

in Tj* * to t0 

Ol ^ r-l CD 



•9 



^ O to 00 CD 

O O CM (Vj rH 

O to m CM b- 

to to m in in 











jo 


*0 ■* O O rH 


-^ <X> Oi -^ -^ 


O Oi t* to lO 


r-l 




b- ^ Oi to in 






C3 


o b- <" oi in 


O to OS CM to 


rH lO <-' 


.-« 


9 




• •••■• 


• 






to in in ■^ ■* 


^ CO CM C.( r-i 


rl 


CM 


XJ 



Tj" o> to o> to 

to C«- lO CM 
CO to rH 



•o to 

CM Q 

to * 



CM > to rH O 

oi to m to o 

CD in CM t- rH 



O r-< to to CD 
EO t^ 00 0> :0 

CO in o to CM 



(O t- CO o; o 
t^ CO c^ c-j ■* 
00 CM lO o to 



in in in in to 



in in m <^ '3' 



to to CM Cm rH 



Oi CO to rH lO 

Oi ^ r-i 



^ OI CM CD r> 

CM lO CM CM 
> to r-( 



CM 

to 

o 



CM O) 
rH rH 
CO tO 



4i 

81 












s 




r-t 


C- to ^ CO U3 


to c^ O o> to 


•q" CM rH rH OJ 


O IC V CM rH 

CB rH lO ^ rH 


CD 


>. 


PJ lO 


3 


CO «3 oi in cn 


^ c^ O to * 


o to to r-t cy. 


O 




Ol r-l 


n. 


rH CM r- r-l DO 


to rH 00 to O 


in CO t-j o> CM 


t* V rH 


to 


■o 


<o O 


a 


in in m to u? 


in in •<*'■* -e^ 


CO CM CM rH r-> 




m 


3 


U3 to 



o> ^ o> ^ 



^ Oi ^ o> ^ 

in in to to t^ 

I f I I I 

o tn o in o 

in in to to c^ 



c> •* o* -^ ^ 

c- CO CD cr. "W 

I I I I 

in o lo o lO 

C^ (D iO o* o> 



t^fimaies of Futnie Fopiihttioii of the I'lnffd Statis, 19.',() 2(>()() 



59 



t- to CD CO to 

O U3 Ol O to 

O CJ <J« N CSJ r-t 

O .-,.-* 

O to (O to tD to 



O OS E- <*< ■"^ 
to N ■'J' OJ OJ 
O 03 lO to ■<J* 



O CO ■* c- OS 

OJ to to U^ r-4 
to O .-I lO C\J 



totomioio inm-*topj 



C^CvlOOt^r-^ rHt^O^O^ CDjOWrHW 

r-lOJC^OJ'^ t-U>0>t^eNJ WT-tOtOtO 

OJrHOCOOO t^iONrHCsJ CMO>r-4tD^ 

».,«•, ••.*• *_J*"^ 

lOtOUJiOlO lOlDlOlOlO LO^'TtQW 



C-JtOOlcHi-t ■^cHtOCOrH 

UaOrHCOCO lOCD-^OrH 

O to <^J rYO CO U5 ^ in lO 



^ CO Cy to .-H 

lO rH to O CJ . - - - 

C4 -^ Oi Oi ^^ r-tOrt 



tototocoto loiomioto 



lO '^ CO BO (O 



CM t- 

co to 

^ lO 



^ ^ in ■^ CO 

C^ CO O t*" CO 

f- m o> CO c^ 

in lo m m in 



c- e^ CO •* o 

t^ N O 00 C^ 

tn to c\i CM to 

in m lO m in 



CJ 00 CO 'I* CM 

^ m to 'J* to 

^ CO o> o «3 

m ** to ■* CO 



CM ^ CO c^ to 

r-t CM 0> CT> C^ 
O CJi CM iH O CO 

<j> k • . ^ « 

oi in u> to to in 



tOCOin^.-O i-ttOOTrHCO OO-^O^O 

Ot^ino>t^ cot~<-Htoco lOCMoito 

O'J'lOlOcO lOrHtOOO 0>OJCM 

lOiniomio ■^■^■^•*<to r^ 



CO CO CM O 'J' 
to O CO O CD 
to ^ CO CO to 



t- to to ^ CM 

^ W CM CD O 
CO CM to to C\J 



0> in to CM CM 

t^ in CO f* lo 

tJ» ^ to CM ^ 



irjinmmin mmioinm ^^^-^ttco 



0> CO Ol CM to 

to o> o a> CM 

OO rW r-t CO to 



to CM to CM to 

o Oi ^ to 00 

lo in QD ** to 



intoujiom minmin'^ 



O CM rH CM to 

IQ Oi to OS O 

CO LO <* to CO 

^ ^ ^ CO CM 



^. iO ^ -^ la 
rH CO in lO 
>■ f- C\J 



to ^ 

in in 

CM CO 



O to CD to '* 
t^ CO o o to 
in CD CO to n 



t^ CO fO r-* 00 

m in CM to m 

CM to -# CM UJ 



loininmm mininm'* 



CM ,-4 O O CD 

c^ a> to to o 

CM in to o CM 

^ ^ -q* ■^ to 



to in in '# to 

O ^ ^ O 'S' CM 

CO CO r-< CT to in 



in to m in in 



o in CO m r-t 
CM CO o to to 
to :o in c^ ** 



'^•tOrHtOCM OiUJOtO^ 

tomoii-Hf- tococo'^ 

f-C^O't'^ ■<*<tOCM 



in in in »# ■* 



^ rji ^ to CM ^ 



O t'S to t* lO 

lO rH r-l t- t- 
lO CD to to CM 



in lo 'J' o to _- . - . 

C^iOOr-t^ r-ttnO 

tO^p^tODQ C^CO^C^CO 

lOinifliOiO lOiOiO'*'^ ^■^^eOCM 



to o CO CO aj" 
fH in o en e^ 
b- lo CO "^ a> 



o »-< CO ^ 10 

^ ,H in ^ ■* 
f- Oi to in to 

LOinininm miO'^-^^ •^T-'^j^totoc^j 



in lO ■^ to to 
to r- O) n-t i-t 
o> to c- o i-t 



Tt< -^ t- CT) 

CO rH oi to 

CVJ to rH 



CM O <^ CD lO 
CO CM CO CD CT> 
^ to CO CM CO 



O to r-* to to 

Oi CM Oi to in 

Oi to O to ■* 

Lnininio^m in^in'i'^'i*'^ -^^^cqcm 



O t^ O to CM 

CO to tn o> o 
■^ to to to oo 



_ ,-1 ■* cr> t- -^ 
O in to m to ■* 
r^ m to Ln to c^ 



in in in in tn 



to CO CM ■# o 

CO ■* in in 'sO 
in a> in Oi o 



oocMcoin otO'iJ'^co 
inajtocjjin mcMcoto 

mOtOmCO rHlOrH 



m •* ■* "^ m 



«< ■* to CM n-. r-\ 



S 



in to 

■* Oi 
CJi 00 



CMrHOiOrH -^ ,-\ tr- Oi r-< lOtOOOtO 

OCDOi^O tocotomco mHCMoito 
toeocM^in toto^coo r-BOtocorH 



m m in m lo 



in ■# 'J* -^J* m 



■^ ^ CO CM CM 



CM c- ^ o ^ 

CM to CO C- i-l 

to m to t^ u3 



in in in m m 



o to o m in 

CO Oi CM -^ t* 
CO lO o --I to 



CJi r^ O CO CO 

lO ^ rH CO to 
CM to Oi CM to 



^ ^ in -n ■* 



■# CO CM CM ^ 



,0) 0» -^ fH to 
OD to ^ CO 
Oi -^ rH 



83 

c- o 

to Oi 

to 



Oi -^ CM O CO 

CD O CM CM CO 

o to -* in to 

lO m m lo in 



t- O CO ^ CO 

O c^ O ■* ■=** 

t* ■^ CJi rH CO 
« « « « » 

•^ -^ '^ \n -4* 



V to « CM rH 



^ eg o CM o 

eO Oi Oi ^ rH 

CM to t^ to Cft 



OJ CM O CM O 

0» t- CM CO Ol 
to O CM t* to 



o o to f- a> 

CO Oi CD to to 

CD ^ tn o tt< 



loiotnm^ -^inm^^J* cococmcmi— i 



to to to t- 

CM CO to CM 
CO to r-i 



Oi (3i to CO O 



in in m lO **• 



03 OJ CM ^ CM 
Oi ^ O <-H ^ 

"* ci CM Oi m 



O CO Oi to CM 

t- to CJi O l^ 
oi eo t-- to to 



^ ^ lO ^ ^ 



;0 to CM CM r-t 



e- »H lO a> r-i 
lO o o to to 

to CO tD CJ> CO 



m r-H rH in 01 
rH CO -^ CO CO 
^ CM 00 ■'i* Oi 



O C^ CM CM CM 
CO to c- o <-» 
to 00 CO 00 CM 



ininm-^-^ \r> \a -ri* -^ to 



CO ■^ (O CM CM 

CM m rH eg 

C- CO rH 



a r-\ -^ f-^ ^ 

to *** CM in CM 

r-t in ^J* t- lO 

u3 m in ^ -^ 



to o in CM o 

CO in C^ rH t^ 

0> CM Oi to O 

■^ in *** ^ ^ 



CO t> Oi ^ t- 

o> o ■^ en C7i 

■* O m Oi CO 

to to CM rH rH 















>> 

-o 




to CO CM to t- 

to t- to CJi m 

■^ to Oi to rH 


CM -f OJ -H .n 

to O to ^ CM 

to Oi iD o tn 


CJi -O OJ C- CO 
to LO Oi CO C- 

O to o in o 


CM CM 
to CO 


lO CM CM 


to 

CO 


u 


in t- 
ca CM 



m in -^ -^t* in 



in ^ 'i' -^ ro 



to CM CM ^ ^ 



cj) to 'D to in 

to to CO ■^ rH 

CM ^ t- in o 



rH t^ t^ m o 

Oi CM t^ -^ O 
CM O to i-H to 



CO * to O CO 
^ lO CM CO CM 
.-I r- CM to CM 



inin'^'^in iniO'3''^co 



CO CM CM rH r-l 



CM in CO CO CO 

in t- rH Ol CO 

to cj> e^ M to 



lo 'a* ■3' in uo 



OJ C-- CO lO CM 

in CO in CO CM 

Ol to rH to CvJ 



c^ m -o t^ t- 

CO to f-H CD O 
CD CO CO CO o 



^^^COtO CsJCM^rH, 



in ^ •* o> CM 

E^ lO Oi r-t 

in csi 



CM ^ 

to o 



O in ■*■>*• o 

-:** t- to ■* to 

rH ^- in o to 



in «# -^ to m 



CM CM O CO CO 

c- to ,-4 t- in 

O t> CM to CM 



C^ BQ CM CJi .H 
CJi (-4 <Jl Op CM 
CD * 00 ■* ,-t 



lo -^ tj< lo to 



CM CM rH rH I-* 



t^ ^ C^l ^ lO 
Cn to to to rH 
to t^ CM -^ O 



<^ -^^ m to in 



CO -^ Oi ■^ CO 
to lO in rH t- 

lO o to to tD 



^'^tOtOcO CMCMr-trH 



00 o c>J c^ to 

00 lO CO <-H 
■* CM 







•^ 


Oi 


■* 


Oi 


■* 


Oi 


■* 


m 


•<<• 


cr. 


•* 


m 


-* 


Oi 


'^ 


CTi 


■* 


> 

9 


■* 


<? 


iH 


rH 


CM 


CJ 


to 


eo 


'i' 


•* 


tn 


in 


to 


CO 


t>- 


t-- 


03 


00 


"? 


■« 


o to 


O 


^ 


O 


in 


o 


in 


§ 


lO 


o 


lO 


o 


m 


o 


tn 


o 


lA 


o 


m 






i-H 


r-\ 


CM 


CM 




CO 




lO 


lO 




to 






CO 


CO 


O) 


Oi 



O 1-4 t-H 



^ 




■<# 


f- 






CM 


t^ 


-^ 


m 


CO 


to 


■* 




CM 


to 


^ 


CJ 


c^ 


to 




rH 


CO 


tn 


■* 


f3 


n 


^ 


to 


fO 


t> 


CvJ 




in 


in 


o 


to 








f- 




o 


in 


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CM to to ^ ^ 

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in o m o tn 

CM to CO ^ ■^ 



Tjt Oi ^ CJi ^*< 

m in to to t^ 

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o tn o to o 

lO lO CO to c- 



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o 
o 



,-( lo ^ ^* to 

IT) ^ lO CNJ rH 
to '3' lO ^ 



N to 

o to 

to •«• 



0> ^ i-H <o to 
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CM to to M ,-4 



i-(OO>O>c0 .^-^ ■"-"-«. 



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rO CM t^ r^ . 

to r-l •* r-t 



3 



O CO 
lO t£ 
•* CO 



0> CO O O CVJ 
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ir> CO ^ rH 



O f^ 0> CO CM 
t- CM Ifl 0> fJ* 
r-t CO C^J rH rH 



CM O to CM U3 



CM to «-» 0> C- 

(O O CM U5 r-( 
OOOiCDCO C-tO"J<' 



CM to 
0> O 

to O 



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CO O »-i to CO 

^ to o ■<*• 00 

,-H CM CM r-« O 



^iHCMtOO rH^lOfHtO COOlC00>i 

rHtOr-tOOO iniOC7>r-tC0 cocoto 

OOCOCOC^ tOiO^-^CM iH 



ss 



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to CM t^ CO 

o o to 



CM r^ 

to t' 



lO CM O ^f (-• 
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O^O^-W CMlO^COlO tOti*rHCO, 

^OOlOOt^ tOtQ<0^tO WCOtO 

OlCOCOGOtp l/Ji/5'^tOCM fH 



t^ GO 

to to 

CM to 



lO to to to t* 

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e^ o> to 



t-- r-l C^ P- f- 
rH in C7> IM tf 
O r-l O O Oi 



CMi-«.-OCM^ lOrHCMtOtO 

OltDCM<»c0 tOO<nCMCM 

COCDCOtOtO lOLO^COCM 



2? 



Ol ^ CT) to to 
^- rH CO to 
LO CO CM 



■*CO#-itOO CMtOC-OC7> 

c~c»tomo r-tooocD 

CTIOOOIOI COtDt-tOlO 



.-tOOiO'O cMOtom 

tOtOtOCOiH CMU3CM 

in ■# CO CM CM rH 



o 



o o 1-t m to 
CM o 'i* m 
^ ^- CM 



OCMOOt-r-t COO'Ot-tO 

totomoco ^cMr-tom 
o>ocncrjoo coc^totom 



cu cj C7» in c^ 



LO CM en in . 
r-. ^ - o 1- 

tO CM rH rH 



iSjQr^^^ OlO^ 



r-i in rH o m 


M 


CM 00 rH m 


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CO 



mcncMoos cMca^mcM ocnmc^jto 
t^inrHa>m tocMCMt^co -^inocjin 
gotnococo c-totom'^ -^cotocMi-t 



CM CD 

O «Q 



O iH rH rH 
CM rH Ol ^ 
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^-^mcO-'i* ^Q-^f-tt^ r-lrHO'4«tO 

rHr-HOito-* ^^010^3 a>a3'na>to 
cocncoaac^ totomm^ eotocMr^r^ 



C» 9> 

to o> 

CJ> « 



rH ^ C- ■*■ 

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CO <# rH 



to CD 

ro CD 



C-- c^ in ^ to 
f- oi r' m m 

t- CO 00 t- to 







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c 






CO O O CM CO 
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s 




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t- 00 >■ to to 



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lOrHCvJCJlCM (JJOtOC-rH '^ ■<it t-\ 

tOtOin-^* tOtOCMrHrH 



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tO^}^^^J^CM Ti«t-O^CT> 

tOiniO-^-* COCMCMrH 



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cft'^J'rH^aj a. incMQco to^cnooo 
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t^C-tOtOtO Ujin^'^tO (OCMrHrHrH 



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in 
to 


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COtJ»cO^O> Olt^rH-^C*- rHrHinO>C0 

mt-cfttoc- moioicMto ocMtoinco 

tOtOtOtOlO Mi -^ ^ -^ XO (OCMrHrH 



CM O Cn 14 CM 



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00 f- 

t- BO 



a* 


80-04 
85-89 
90-94 


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I I I I J 

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.H rH CJ 



Ol ^ CT> ^ CJ> 

CM to to ^ <* 

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m o m o ^ 

CM to CO ^ -^ 



■* CT) ^ CT) "S* 

in m to to t^ 

I I I I I 

o in o in o 

in in to to t^ 



0> ■* CT> ■'I" 
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lilt 

in o m o in 

c^ CO CO en o^ 



KstliiKitty of Future f'opnlatlon of tin I'liitcl Statrs. in.'/d ,:!ll(lll 



61 



O 
O 
O 



CO O Oi lO lO O C CO -t* tM b- -13 lO cj ;0 "i^ lO tO O «3 XO C\t O 

OLOCOCMO i-HUJC^cnfO COCJ'nUJCO t*-tDCOPQ rH I-40I 

CVifJCJMrM i-HOCncOCO t^O-lO^fO CJrH «3 ^CO 

^ ,_r r^ ^1 rH ^ ^* -^'' ^'' ^'' 



i-tCsiC-Jr-trH OOiOlCOCO 



t- to lO V* M N f-H 



to o 
a J CI 
CO O 



OcMt^cNjto a><-tiocvjco 



(£) lO m 'd< to CU rH 



'D no 
en :o 



Or-HrHOO cncococoto 



lO m lO '^ t-3 r^ --i 



<0 <D 
CO c^ 
CJ ^ 



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OtOOO«> -^W'#tOcO 

lO a> ^ CO w ,H 



o ■* 

00 (O 






'.C CM (O O lO to c^ to CJ c^-' 

in IC -^ O CM rH 



c\i a> 

CO O 

r-i O 



m r-i <yi i-t CO 

Cvj rH to Ci '3 

O) o cr> CO cx) 



COt^lOCDO tOOr-tCOt^ CTlcOCOOtO 

rtrHWrHO -^COCOOCj rH^CJrH 

CO tr~ to iD <o 113 "^ f3 ^O r-{ i-i 



CO O 



cJrHesciiXi oDC-^roo 

COO^COCOCO t-O'-OtDlO 



.■•Ocoocn*^ t-ci^tocM 

rHQLOCOtO Ci"*WrH 

m ^ CO C\i rH 



03 rH 

rH CO 

O CD 

•> ft 

rH 0> 



COCOWCOCO COCOt-OirH 

r-iaiC7LoeQ ^■^toco'^ 
cococococ^ yjoDyjiom 



<o CO in r-t -* 
to o> t> O fO 

■^ to CM C«J rH 



t-COtD'^<D tDLOrHCi;3tO 

c-cocot^cD tDys^in*^ 



CO o in in to 

CO CM CO to O 

'y< to CO rH rH 



m t~ fO r-i fO rH O) CO O tn 

ro<omc^c~- t^c^cooit* 

t-COC^yD'-D '^ ID 'Si '^ ■^ 



Oi en t^ CO CO 
in f- CTi to en 

to CO rH rH 



rHcoo>oro co^inco'O 

'Lnint--aiCO ^rHrHOO 



mcoooto (Ototocvjin 



a> ec rM CO in 

,-1 CO *^ rH rH 
to CJ rH rH rH 



to CO <0 CO rH 
C- en ^ ■^ CO 
Csi rH rH rH 



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to 


•H 


CO to 


in CO rH 


CI 


+J 


O CM 




CM 


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-^ Ci ,-, ,-i <:\r CJcOtO^^ 

I 1 I I I I I I I I 

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rHrHCM CMMtO-^*-^' 



^ Ci ^ cy> •5< 

43 in tC UJ E^ 



o lO o in o 
in in '-o to t>- 



Ol -T" oi -^ 

E- cC' CO tr. '•'o 

I I I I 

in o u^ O in 

C- 00 OD CJ» oi 



62 



National Hesovicfn I'laniiinfi Bonn! 





eo lO CO e^ Q 
■vn rt* to ^ ^ 






CV: rH CSJ Tj* e* 




•t « « « * 


Q 


m O o O O 


cv; 


•H r-l .-1 r-4 



■■V f* -^ ^ r-i 
r-i to \e> to (O 
O O C^ lO CO 

* « « » « 
r-* rH O O O 



OJ O ^ lO N?« 

•«J« ■^J* V o t- 

CO N rH lO CO 

* k • • « 

C> O CO CD lO 



r-t^lO-'J'O tOC^COO** Oi^tOtOt- 

r-IOO'C'WCO r-4iHei:tL(<y) t<jL.OPiCOlO 

t-f-(CVjtO^ tC tjJ ■^ to to -^OCrOlO 

■d^tiiuiLOLO minioioui i/3a:)toc^c\) 



O o rt tvj O) 

CVJ 0> Ol i-H o 
^ CJ ^ CO ^ 



cr. O O O r^ 



CO Oi i-t O cv 

^ a> CO a> CO 
r-f CO e- o> to 



o r- LO ^- CO 
r-i CO o ^ tu 
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CO e^ o w 
t»- u> y> o> cvi 
CO o t^ «H 



l-( O O O rH 



i-t O) e^ f- u> 



CO BO 

r-t fH 
CU O 



»-HCOOrHOO rHOOJtOtO 

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CDCVilOlO<0 tOiC-^lOC^ 



yD to ^ O lO 
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j> 'g* e* to to 



^lOiOLom lOLOininio iri^eowcvi 



lO 05 O ■* O 

LO »-i (O CO ^ 

ifl U3 CO t-H W 



lO CO * CM to 
rH O OJ Ol to 

O a> .-H CO u> 



r-l ^ CO 00 O 
t- Ol C^ O iJ^ 

e^ lO ■q' (£) CD 



(ii CO LO lO o 
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o: CO CD »-t Tf 
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CO to lo b- e^ 




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n-i J3 





to to o -^ to 

r^ U5 CTJ W rH 

CO it; a> oi CO 



t* OV CO to o> 
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CO M O lO ■* 



Lfjioiotnio '«*"'<s'^ioc-o 



t- Cvi ^ C^ CO 
to CO to rH O 

t^ CO CM to rH 



O ^ CO O^ CO 
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c- to to C\. Cvj 
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to to lO CO CO 
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t- -sH CO CO o 

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CD C^ O O r-t 

in in CO CD LO 


(-1 CM CM ■«* to 

o> to -^ tn t*- 
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Tjt -«J1 -^jl to CM 









CM e^ oo in J5 

r-4 lO to 00 fH 
r^ CM CO iH rH 



to Ol CM CO y? 

to to o> f^ c*- 
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to in oi .-H f* 
in in CM r-i 'J' 

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m o <7i CO to 
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O r-i 1—t i-t r-i 



fHCMc^ocn ocntotoiA 



.-i C3 

CD C^J 



■^ eO CO O O 

in lo o r-i t>- 

rH C- CO C^ to 



O oi in ^ t^ 

<' to CO CM ■;!» 
CD rH rH ^ CO 



inujinLOLn mtDtoin'^ 



'# in O O rH 

■* CM CO to CM 

O CO CT> r-< CM 

in ^ to CO tM 






to CM « CM CM 
CD tJ> CO Ol to 
^ CO CM r-i in 



O r-t ^ ^ -I 



to C^ CO i-H CO 

oi in to to CO 

r^ CM C^ OJ to 



CM rH to CM in 
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to ^y r-i ■^ ^ 



CM Cm o a> o 



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j^ O ^ c\l -«** 

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CTl lO 
CO rH 
CO CM 



to O CD to (O 
CO CM eO r-H O) 
W CO tv t^ CO 



uj c- CO eg in 

O CM to r-« CM 
CV CM ^ O CO 



CM CO i-t CM CM 

m to CD rt oi 
CM -(^ r- oj O 



mujininm tocoinLnin m^'cocMCM 



CO OS CM :M CM 

CO in "^ ■^ o 

in CM CM to CO 



CO to en CM en 

CO CO ^ m CD * 

CO CO rH o» ,-1 

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to CO CD CO O 

a> ^J* ^< rH CM 

O o in o "3* 

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to CT- to O ■'J' 

pH ^- rH CM r^ 

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in CM CM ,-t o> 

o> in '^ "^ to 

CO e^ c^ en CM 

in in in in yj 



o rH 03 to to 

Q CM .-I o ^ 

cc in rH If i in 

to in in in in 



m CM lo to oi 

to O ■^ to CO 

CO to m t- en 

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£S 



to to m oi cn 

to CD CJ> CO o> 
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in i-H o CO CO 
O en CD to c^ 
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CD o yj o f^ 
CM C^' QD in t-- 
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to m CO to CM 

CO CO to »-t f-H 
to CVI ^1 rH 



O f-H r-f CM CV 



fH O <-! r-l O 



cji 00 V- in *3* 



CM CO 
CO '^j* 



COCDCMCOCM t-t^in'-DCO 

to in C- rH to - - - 

CO c^ en CO to 

Lnmintoto loinminm 



CO to CD CM in 

CO CO v* to to 

CO o to to en 

'i* ^ to c^ ^ 



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t- CM ■^ Oj O 

^ t^ 'S* in tH 



to CO c^ Ol CO 

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OD Oi CO CO CM 

in iH in f- -^ 
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to in to 05 
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O ^ CM CM rH 



O fH rH O O 



Ci t- CD in CO 



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lO o 
to o> 

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in lO to to in 



iH CO CM 0> CD 

CO rH CD rH in 

CM t^ CO to 01 

in m lO in "* 



CM CO 00 ^ to 

O i-i CO o in 

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« « <« « (k 

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cj in CO CM in 
rH t- m en o 
03 ^ CD rH in 



CD CO en rH c^ 
»:fi CM rH CM O 

^ oi fH in lO 



to O 60 03 tH 

.-o -^ to in to 
in -^ ^ O "^ 



OCOCMfHO .-HfHr-'OCn 



CD c^ to in to 



O CO Ol CM to 

to to -<*♦ en .H 
in CO ^ to CO 



UT to O CO oi 

CO in ^ to m 

t^ a> ■* rH CO 



intocomin ininmio^ 



CM CO CO CO "* 

c- to in CD CO 
r^ CD n^ ^ to 

« * « tt * 

■^ to CO Cvj ,H 



t-- to r-t fH in 

CM CO in o> CO 

^ to CM m U5 

fH C^' i-H O fH 



to CM c- CM en 
t- en •* CM >- 
O c-j c^ 00 en 



■^ to 'O lO Tt< 
to CO C- O rH 
O CM en ^ rH 

« « « * * 

CO t" in ■^ to 



CM en Q °o * 
^ in CO t^ 
O en po 



o e- to in o 

OJ CD CM to lO 
O) ■^ C^ to CO 



to CO CM CO to 
to to to CO Cm 
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O u3 CD CO tn 
CO O CO to CO 
0> to e?) r-4 ^ 



mtoininm totnm^"^ cococmcm, 



CM O to CO CO 
to CO lO to o 
05 CM (D CO C^J 
« « «k * * 
^ .H O -H CM 



CM O O O 'S* 

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<H O O (7> CC 



O i~* ^ Oi r-i 

CM o O en CO 
CO t^ cj 3) en 



to to OJ o CO 
*** CM O t~ 

c^ 00 to 



C- to in CO CM rH 



CO CM O CO O 
rH ^ O O rH 
O t* "T* 0» iH 



co iH in en iH 
r-t c£> to o to 
to CO en to CM 



C^ iH to CO 
in iH to C^ CM 

01 ^ to Oi 'J* 



cDicinintD m \ii ^ '4* ■^ toeocMrHiH 



CM m CO <■ CO 
■^ CO "^ to 03 
Uj to t^ to lO 



CM in CD in 
(^ ^ ■<3' CO in 
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C^ If J "^ to CM I-* 



V 


in ^J 


u 


O CO 


o 


^ ITJ 




* * 


Cl 


fH CxJ 


3 


r-i f3 



in cn CM o CM 
in iH in CO oi 

CO «?< OJ rH CO 



^ o to cj> oi 
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■«*< O t- *** CM 



CO r-l CO to rH 

in iH oj en t-- 

C^ O CO CO cv* 



inicincoin inin^t«'«s< cotocvirHfH 



•* cn tf< 

-*!« CT) iH ■-< CM 


cn ^ en ^ en 

CM PJ ^5 -^f -tj* 


ti< en •* en --^ 
u) m to to c* 
1 1 1 g t 

O in o in o 
in m CD to c^ 


(T> -^ cn ^ 

r- X> CD CT> -t 


as 

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3 


o in o 05 o 

rH fH CM 


m o m o m 

CM CO to -"Jf ^ 


in o in o in 
f- CO CO en en 


3 



^J^ C: iH rH CM 
I I I t I 

o m o m o 



cn ■3* en ^ en 

CM to to ^' 'J* 

I I I I I 

'O o in o in 

CM to to ^ ^ 



^ en * CO '^ 

U5 U3 to to i>- 

I I I I I 

o in o in o 

m m CD to c^ 



Estimates of Future Fi>/iul(itloN of the I'lilteil States, W.'tO 2000 



63 



CO CvJ CO 01 t- 
sj* '^ O CO 

c^ CO to 



w to 



W O to CO o 



.-1 tn <H O: rH 
S)t r-l C\- •^' <-H 
*^««« ■«***» «•««« 

^<»d<J5iOUl U5U31OI-0U5 iDU^'J'tOtO 



fH a> CJ %< c*. 
to O to Ci •-* 
to « lij *-t 



lO o CO lo «; 
r-< r-r CD tr 

«3 CO C^i 



a> cj (O fH o 

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to o ^ CJ -* 

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lO en 01 t>- en 

to -# a> rH c^ 

^ to w << to 

lO 1/5 UO lO LO 



•# r-l rH C- GO 

O ^ O ^ r^ 

ira to o o^ fO 

0^ -* •* to o 



CO f- kT lO lO 
to m CO W »-l 
W (N) -^ rH 



i-l C^ r-1 rH to 

to lO t^ to 

lO t*- CJ 



O CNJ 

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to C\i CnJ to c^ 

CO ^ i-H C^ Q 

«^ r-i to 'J' U3 

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O ^3 -^ t- O 
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'i* CT> t^ U'i r-l 

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^ to ^ ''J' ^ 
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ininmintn ^■5S*^'i'<co 



cy to c^ o to 
o iH in to 
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o 


to (I> 


o 


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O) 


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to .H ,H ^ o 

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to CO "* t- in 
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to (D C\J 



CO -^ CM in m 
m o to c^ ^ 
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cvj o t^ "y* en 
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to oi o> c\] en 



CVJ .-H CT, rH o 
rH CO Ol CO CM 
rH rH ^ C- a* 



<<wininin mmmm'^ 



CO W in «3 rH 
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a» en w 



in in -^ CO c^j rH 



to o 
in oj 
CO in 



QD o> Ol o 
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CO 'O .V 



0> ^ 

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c^ oi 



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CO t^ en t-- to 

^ m ^< ^ cr> 

m IT in m in 



;- O o en to 

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in to u~, ^ in 



O c\J m o to 
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rH rH in w o 

CO "Vl in CD rH 

c- m to 



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CO CO rH -^ 
CO to C^J 



C- CO 

to O 

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cn O O o to 

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in in in in 'O 



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o CO o *^' y3 

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to in *-n in m 



rH to to CM rH 

CO -^< C U3 CO 

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in •* -^ to cvi 



in CO iTj -^ O 

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rH in oi ■<*< 

CV' in rH 



Ol ^ 
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in to 



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m^cvjc-co ,-ta>iocnto 



CO ■* a> CO c-i 

CJ CO P3 rH rH 

O CO t>- o to 



CO Ol to CVI CO 

t^ oi e^ c^ 



in in in to to 



in "^ CO CO tv: r-t 



CO '* 

in ^^ 



■* to tn cn 

to O CD to 
O U3 rH 



CO to 

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00 cn 

m ■** 



oi ■^' tn c- ro in u^ u^ c c\j 

eOCOCrC^tO ■cJ'OOlOO':?* 

rH t- C *H -^ ^I to CO U3 CJ 

in in 'o -,0 lO in in -o uj in 



(Oc^jO'-^'to cc-cncooto 

mooc^cn tointoto 

tOr-l-^COO C^JtOPO 

■# -^f CO CO C\j rH 



^ to 
lO a> 



O C^ 


■* 


■* CO 


■* 




CO C^J 


t* CD 


to 


to 


CD 




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C31 ■'^^ 


r-1 




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to CO 








t^ 


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<Si 




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CO 


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t^ 










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m to to in in 



r* tr- to tfi in 

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t^ CO U") CM t>- 

u3 to LTrf 'X, in 



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in in m m ^ 



CO CO in -^ CO 
CO in cn CO m 

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■^ 05 t~ to t- 

to O O CJl Ol 

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to CO O O ■ 
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r-* CO CM 



rH 'n c^ to in 

CO CM 00 ^ 
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to in 

C-- CO 
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■£> in .n ■^ "4* ■=J* £0 .0 CM rH 



:£ cc to a> ;o 

CM C- :0 CM 
03 to rH 



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UJ CM 



-i< C- to O Ty 
rH to in tfj Ol 
CD lO CM e^ c 



CO 31 tn rH C' 

CM 'J3 cn cn :o 
CO ic o to CJ 



Ol -?< ■£> ^O C3 

'n cn t— CO CO 
CO CM in o in 



m CO so rH in 

rH -^ C^ ■* 
Ol ^ rH 



in in in -O x in ^n nj -j* ^ 



CO rH 

to J> 

CM rH 



T jj CM cc O; 

CM in CM CM 

t^ CO rH 



CD i/> 

in to 



C- t.") -;?• CO lO 

a:f to (71 m o> 

rH CM t- rH CO 



•O CM (~> Jj to 
'•< C— O to ':'' 
tr> rH CO CO o 



fcO to CM r^ 

r-t in -«*< ^ 

^ rH 



in ic in CO m 



ic in -^ -^ ■^ 



>J Cv! C\J rH rH 



CI CD CO OS^tS 

t- B I I 

I o m o in 

uj m rr* (rt oi 



■^' m ^ 

^« Oj rH rH C^ 

I I I I I 

O >J> O 'O o 



cn vf cn ■r' (r. 

cj c*! cj '^' -tr* 

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in o in o i^ 

t^J o ^^ -e -^ 



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in in to CO t* 

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in If; to to c^ 



t-- cn 00 jr •« 

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in o LJ> O 'O 

c*- CO cn o> o> 



64 



National llfstturce^ Planvhui Board 



r^moo^ CD Oi <x> ^ CO 



CM --H C* to 
— * r-* ?•> :?: 

ij J5 ^ r- 



•^11^^^^ 



^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 



8 CD (H CO to 
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to > Oi 



cu to 

Sin 
lO 



«-i ^ o w ^ 



COQ'HCOrj COC3C7>COr- 

.n'Sin^ti> p-toc^-fHO) 



■* ^' -tr ^ -^ 



■<*« ^ Kj CO Cti 



CO to c" r- o 

o^^ntooo coc^c^cDo 



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cQ o in 00 ' 
as (7» CO o • 



^ "3* ^ ^ ^* 



^ sj. ^ ^ Vfj 



c\j Tj< ID w in 
00 w ^ in 
^ t^ w 



1 to to to N r-t 



CD rH 


^ ^ in «4« o 

rH O O U) rH 

CTi ro to ■» lo 


rH to tp <\; 

■J- ir: g; rH * 

to -> li^ c^ cy> 


cc 0; ^ 0^ in 

to rH 01 (V ^ 
CO rH (O iTj 


TfC-" 


M ■*■<)■<? .3. 


■a< ■*•*•* •* 


■* ^ M n to 



eO^CDrtOl C7^0CO<O.H ^OtOCOrH'^ 

iftwciinc^ cocoina^o; c^OiOrH^o 
^intocooo >r-cTtrHr-i tor-c^ojcj 



^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 



■^ -<j< Tjt in uo 



■^ to CO CO 03 



to to a> c» in 
o» in ^^ ^ 

CO 10 CO 



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C^rHC»-lOO COUiC^COOJ _ 

cjtO'*<OtO ininr-oo tocnoc*-cn 



> Q CO « m 

} W rS ^ o 



'■^•^inio ■^co^j'c'ioj 



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in o 51 H w 

CO C- 03 CT* CD 



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00 o C3 O) in 



to rH CO 10 rj 

a> in c*- CO lO CO c 

f-*rH"OCT>iH coinw 



«r^^<qiH^ ^'inmio** ■<j<'«i«tow<v ih 



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in i-H 



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c-''*'X>i-i WrHowto coininc^co 

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^o ;^ in 1? to 



'•f ^ 



iy r-i ^_j iy vw 
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to to c** o to 
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o .~. in ^ ■* 



^ ^ to w <-t 



CO CO 



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in '.n 'x* Ln c^ 

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in to o w ^ 



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in 



in CO 00 O CO 

01 ^ ^- a> cr. 

ir, 01 CD CO o 

'<}' ■^ ■<* '^ tn' 



r: o to ■^ O 

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■^ ^ r- ** r- 

m lO -^ -^ ^ 



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rH'<*tO«;f'£V COCtOrC 

r-ocoioc^ ciOiH 

"* "^ CO Ci rH r-\ 



•H CO 

en to 



^ O O O rH 

cr- rH in c^ T- 
CO c^ tij to 00 



^ ^l ^ T^ -^ 



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r, r-t IT, C\' 
rH W to CO C- 



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IC O rH rH C^ 

CO ^f CC. C f-H 



lOin^-*^ '^r^cotoo) 



CT>Oi 03 rH^ G iTi xf CK. ■r]' 

■^'OOrHCO^ COrHrHOin 

tOCDOirH^ rp (O iTj (Jl (Ji 



■^■^■^iOxn in^'^-'j''^ '^coc'ioirH 



COC^tOOJ'* tOCOtOrHtO 

c^ointoc^ to^-^co 

tOCOOOim C^Tl*rH 



ci in 

D- 00 

en to 



d 03 m ^'J o 
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tJ* u: ID a> 03 



to rH "^ to ^ 
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a> to •<}< cc o 



^^^. ^in tO'<T'<3«^in 



"^ tr rj 0: rH 



^^iltS? rHWOj-^^ rHOjoccDtr; LOc-^'Oto 
c. oj in 00 c\j to c^ c^ o 01 oj in rH to c^ «o c; rj ft 

\n <Ji-i ^ lO XiTjCrHin rH^'C^C'l' CDtO<H 



■^ ^' in m in 



^ *5* ^ in ■^ 



^ to O:! 0; rH 



in -* 
a 00 
en to 



OOJCTi'^CO tocooccto COOCtOCOO 

QCJirH^Q CninCnrHOi lOrHCOrHrH 

^i^CnOJtO O^COrHC^ COC^O'-CC 

■tf •* ^ in w ^ <:j* ■*' in ^ V CO CO* oT rH* 



8 



03 to U- fH rH 

CO to o to o 

to fH in lO en 



totoor-03 cn-^^o-. rH ojc^D-tooj 
rHinocjc-j coc-ootoo; mm 0-03 

tOOOJC^CO C-O^OitO P-tOrH 



•^inmm^ ■^mm-*'^ cocoojrHrH 



rH CD 

to ic 

Ol CU 



cotOrH'^m wooioom ^c^. como 

eoo3totooj cn^cooo rHa>'#o:05 

^oioacoc^ ^cnrHCGin a cq t^ a Sj 

•^•^mm^ ■^■^m^'^ to to oT 03* r-T 



m 
in 



03 o* CO m m 

to rH OD CO in 

CO in m o to 



00 O O rH 'J- 

O > to C- CO 

rH Oi CO ^ CT> 



03 rH 01 O CO 
10 rH 0; CO '^ 
to CO CO C^ rH 



■^mm'^'^r inm'^'^j'co to cjojrHrH 



CO 01 rH C\J CM 
CD CO rH C\J 
to to rH 



m cu" 



m 0: tJi rH 

m c^ m ^ 03 
to 03 :o c^ in 


CTl CO CO '^^ 00 

r- T^r to (D ^ 

(7» 03 i5 


(T) ti; ■^ ■v 
to r- CO m tTj 
■^ a> m ci CO 


■^ in in ^ *j* 


^ m ^ ■* »* 


CO 03 03 rH rH 



s 



r» CO rH rH ^ 

ci o to c» m 

rH (O en to rH 



00 Q tl' to 01 

03 O 10 to O 

CO a. in o in 



O C^ to Ol rH 

■"^ ^j 00 o m 
o to o m c 



miny-^m in-7'^''<*co co03f>3 .HrH 



m to iO cNj c\j 

lO O^ J» CNJ 

to OJ 



9 to 
to ^ 
m E^ 



to 03 to in ^ 

CO to to -cj" rH 

01 CO c^ m o 



cn-^'^oro p^mojcotT) 

COCOC^-^Cn tO'^'03'JDO 
OJOtOrHin rHC^03tOCJ 



-^m'^^-^m mm-*-<:j'co coo:c*jrHrH 



o> 



rH m CO C^ rH 

TO J> rH 0» OD 
03 0> O- H CO 



CO to c- ^ to 

in CO 10 to rH 
0» to rH UD OJ 



uO^-^inm 'I'-'^-^tOrj OjrvrHrHrH 



c^' (O ^ :7j CU 



to c- 

in XI 

lO oj 



t "J in ^ -^ <T> 

O- C^ to rj* 03 

c c^ m o CO 



m ■^ ^ m C3 



MiHooso mojrH-nc^ 
t>rjrHO-m a.rHcn33rH 

OC^Ol^O? X)'g'73';;'rH 



m ■^ ■!? 10 CO 



03 O; rH rH rH 



^ ^ 03 ^ in 

OJ to «*? CO rH 
W C* C5 TT O 

*af <j" m in m 



CO O "=!' CO tC 

0» to 0' to OJ 

to 03 c»- to o 

•^ -4* to I J to 



00 ^' 01 -q* to 

to in m rH r* 
m o to to CO 



u^ O cvj ; 
=-' in CU . 



-^ Tj* c*. -^ lO 03 i> ■<*' in ^-j to ^ a> Cv m 

03istO!0 rH toto^coo ^majo-o^ 

^mocorH r-03c^coo ooto.jo 

■=r -1' m m in ■* ■* c-3 to :'j oj o; rH rn 



■^' en -^ 

*!• en I I I 
I I O m o 

O in rH rH OJ 



o» ■* cr. y c. 

C3 CO CO 4' 'q' 
I I I I I 

in o .0 o -o 
w to to ^ •* 



c»i ■"T en ■!»' 

r- CO CO o> iv, 

I I I I 

:.n O -0 O -O 

C^ CO ^ (7> O". 



cd 
'C +> 
I o 



oi I ! o ^ o 

55 O in iH rH 03 



Kxtimatey «f Fiiiuir PnjDilatlnn of the I'uited States, 1940-2000 



65 



o 
c 



O fXl rH 03 rH 
C- 00 tO O <-l 
r-t r^ ri> ,-i 



rH r-i 

Oi CO 

O rH 



to (O r-i CS»Ni*0^f-i 



rH CO ''J* to O 
t< f-H r-( <Jl t-t 
O r-< ^ 



CD O 
rH O 



00 to r- u3 a» 




rH (71 


<- O ^ CO 

mow 


^ 


n in 

w to 



Oi CO rH O CO 
■^ CO CO CO 

c^ CO to 



Pi o 
CO O 



^ 0> rH to U3 O 

C\] lC LO CO 



o> to o o r- 

■^ O Q C^ 
LO CO CO 



. '^t* o 



CO ■>f' CO CO to 

OJ CD to O ^ 



to ■* a> W rH 

■^ (Ji -^ r-^ 



O o CO cr. to 

O -^ t^ Ui 

•<^ r- cvi 



o in 

CO lO 



O rO -f ■-.» tQ ^ Cv) CM ,-i rH 

e^C^tOOlCM C0C\JU5rH 

f-) rH Ol r-i ^ 



C O 00 CO ID p- 

oi in o; lo t* 

W to CO ^ 



00 lu 



■et -^ ^ a^ lO 
CO in o •* 
»H in rvi 



CO CO 

to o 



■=3'OtOC^O C^tOCMWsf* CTiCOtOOlrH 

r-i C<1 t^ CJi CO t^ tr~ CD ^ tDCJ^ 

rH Cv.' CO c*3 to CVJ i-H 



lO ^ CO fH Tj" rH 

O Oi CO "^ en 

0> -^J* fH ri 



rHtOOlcOf- OltOOiCOOO tOlOO^C35' 

rHCOC-OlC^ OiCJtOCni-H -^rHtO 

rH CV-e*'^^'^ WrH 



C\J C^ l£) ■*}* 

'^ irj in CO 

00 ^ rH 



03 cj 



• '^J^ rH C£) O lO -* C- 

' rH CM 03 Oi CO rH 

rH CO 



t-OJ^-t^-fO rH-^OlCn 

OtOO^OCO CJOW 

■* lO to in to CM rH 



to 00 Q i 

o> c^ 35 I 

C^ CO rH 



O *5 



8s 



O to CO 01 (O 
CO O CO CM CJl 

rH CO ■* 



rHt^coO'* O'l'coaji-H 
OlOlOlCM^ ooto 
LO to to lO f 3 CM rH 



O to lO CO rO 
to rH CM CM 

tO CO rH 






CO rH t- t-- Oi 
O: CJ) CO rH CM 

rH to in to 



tocMojtocM a f-* to ^ r^ 

■4> O to <0 r-* (Ji O to 

t- CO to ■* CO rH r-t 



rH to Oi t^ lO 



> 6 o t 

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in 
to 



CO 

in 



rH in 

00 to 



^rH5-CMa> 'd^tooc-t- 

rHOJcOCn Cl^.'OlOrH 

rH to LO to CO 



tOtOtOtOO ^01Q^■CM 

COP^f^CM,H iJlCOtO 

CO t~ m ^ Ci) cH 



j:; 


0) 




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r-i 


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a 






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c*- CO CO o> av 


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IS 







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^ o> ^ o> '^ 

lO lo to to t*- 

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Ol ^ Oi -^ 
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ill! 

lo o in o m 

t- CO CO o> CJ> 



I 

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66 



National Resources Planning Board 



to 10 CT» IS W _ - - 

a. totototo tOr-tr-i 



C^ CO 00 CO 00 



00 CO Ci *£> "t 

to c ■* O 00 



to -* i-i a> c^ 

o r- -^ u> CD 

UD -"t to C\J rH 



lOtDOcoiQ ■^j'tor-cooj 

rH^lOmiO COI^tOCJCTJ 

D-cococooo cop-r*c*-*D 



CO CO to to to 

^ rH -^ lO to 

lO -^ to 0} (-1 



lO o to W I 

W O ■* rH 
rH rH 



O* CO lO 00 rH 

rH lo to u:> ^ 

C^ CO CO CO CO 



to rH Q CO C- 

CJltOUJtOO - . . . ^ - - 

^£>-C»C-S -^-^tOWrH 



•^ Oi -^ fji "^ cnco^to, 

CM^COTttCO C-,-HiO,-H 

r^ f-i rH rH 



to 00 /i Tf o 

c-cococooo r-c^r*^io 



rHUDrHCOO C^OC*CD'<t' 

ooaac-'i'to wocOrH'T 

---.,— -(it ^ W C3 rH 



■ •^Oio ^(Oeococ'j cvJcotocM 
• i-HC^' t^cT)^■c*^(o .-twiOrH 

rH CJ CJ C\J rH 



OOC^rHCQOO C^r->C^rH ^SOCOC^ 

C-COCOCOC*- ODC-tOtOm ^tOWrHrH 



cr> ■* o O cu 

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C- ^ rH rH . 

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e^ o; -(T rH ^ 
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^ to W W rH 



't* C (iJ CD CO 
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CO rH O to CO 



r-l P) CO 



•* r; CO o» CO m 

CO CO rH CO to CQ r-. 

c^ 00 CO CO CO r- to 



(o CD lo -ta* 

gin in 
in '<t 



O^ O CO CO to 

a* rH in 00 w 

to CO W rH rH 



OtDOitD^jD CM'^moitD -^ -^ \n fD . 

rHCMC^OrH to ^ >• V> t~ tOCM"*r-< 

rHCM £0^^^(o CJrH 



00 o ^ to Ol 
QfQ-^into C5--A 
F-oocoooc- totoin 



Tj«OtOOitO ri'tV'^CQtO 
- ^ ^ tOCOWrHiH 



• ■* O to O ^- CNJ <o 

' f-i C\J CO O W ti* 

rH N lO 



"?" C- to <X) ■^ 
t^ cvj in CO 'i* 
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C\J CO o oi f^^ 
t- 00 cv in o 

CO CJ W rH rH 



rH CO lO m -^ 
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<* ^ fj in lo 

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lO to in -^ to 



r-oor^toiD (Oinin- 



lO 
01 



■■^rHtOCVJ OtOrHCOCO C^t^-^rHrH 0>VlOCC 

rHCJCO rHPJtOOCO mtoc\;c\jo oioto 

rHtMCOlOm tOCOVO-^tQ rHrH 



CD CO rH 3 C^ 

to to r- 00 ^ _. — - 

p-r-iototo min^'^to 



C\) to CO OJ to 

« in IS w rH 

to CO rH rH rH 



■^ Ci "H rH CSJ 



rHtOCOtOt^ PJtOtOOCV) 

cOtOrHOCO COCOOTOOl 

WfOintoto toio^tocM 



o> ^ o> 
eg eo e<j 

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W eO to 



?; 



•^ CJ> ^ o> ^ 
to lO tC* (O C- 

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r-i rH tn en O} 

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0-4 
5-9 

10-14 
15-19 

20-24 


25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 


50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 



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g « o c- r- rt 

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03 « 






67 



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<o o m « 



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CO 


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rH (£) CD O Oi 

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t^ O OJ 
to to N 


op to 00 t- to 

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rH 




S3 

CO rH 



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to N 

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C- IN O C*^ U) 



rH CM to p ^O 



CM C^ ■<*' C^ N 
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CO i*'^ O ^ c*3 

CM 00 ^ rH 



00 H 
to '^ 

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c'i to 
CO ^ 



COCMOCO^O OCOO^COCi 

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r-ICnC^'«;CtO r-li-IU3tO<M 

rH^inC^tO tOr-tOrH 

in ■* to CM rH rH 



in t£> 

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co W 
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tOrH^DOO^ ^-CMC7^CMQ 

tO'O^OCD Ci£TiI>-CO(D 

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in ^ to CM *H iH 



o ^ 
to cr- 

00 ^ 



^-JrHCnrH rHOQ<^*^ 

c*-coooD-co oor-<oinin 



iHrHintO^O OO'^tOOtO 

OlfHCl^vn OiinCMrH 

^ ^ CM Ci iH 



o ^ 

CO CM 



toootntOGo comoOfH wtococMOj 

tOrHOCMCJ rHCMCMQ-^ C-inOOW 

>cooocDco r-iototoin -^totoCMiH 



c- to 

in c^ 

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r- c^ to to to CM < 

O O to ■^ CO -^ 
r- 00 00 CD c^ ^ ' 



)£^C-iH Ol^COCQ OrHO^CJiCJ 

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t(Oinin ^tocMiHi-t 



lO t^ 
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CD t^ CM C» C^ 00 CD ' 

oi CO in 't lo in ■^ < 

(O 00 00 C^ ^ (O <X) < 



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r- ^ ^ 



■H t- 

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^o to in ^ ^ 



CO CM <*• Cr> rH 

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to CM rH rH 



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C^ ID 
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CO CO 



p- C- tO U) to 



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r- in 



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a] 


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Oi ■^ o» ■^ 

p- CO 00 en «a 

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in 6 u) o to 

r- CO CO cji o 






68 



National Refiourcefi l^fanniii(i Board 



o 
o 
o 



^ a> «o eo CO 
CM m ^ r-l o 
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CO^COtOb- OlOrHCD^ COtOrH^W 

00i-*^t^<O «50lCjr-,-( 0>OJO>rHCJ 



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CO O 



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in rH C^ CkJ to 
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r- r- Lo -^ lO 



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0> CO to lO CJ 

c^ u3 'i' in to 

O ^J< CD (7> CM 



Ot^OtOW lOr-*^tOO 

Cft'i'CJOO^ r-ltOOJtOCV) 



en a> u> CO ev} 

eO 00 i-t Oi N 
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tnOOOi-H ^MO»H»H r-417)COC-CO 

»-l»H,-l^ r~i r^ ,^ ,^ ^^ ^ 



to CM 


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■* to -^ '-J a> 
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c\j cv) eo e^ Qj 

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to w cn CO r-t 

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rH 


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c- to ^ c- c^ 
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cj « Tt* eg rH 



CM t- CM CO O 
to to O lO lO 
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CO lO CM (O ^ 
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rHCvJCMOOJ OOQOC^in 



CO CM cn ^ to 

•^' rH to LO rH 
to b- to rH 



CO to 
to O 

O en 



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pQ in v* o 

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<^ !e 



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lO <* CM CM to 



■* O in rH t J 
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o> C^ ^ t^ CO 



t^ ■^ o to ^ 
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>-* O rH rH r-l rH 



CMCMOOO ocno^tO'^ 



CM t- 
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in c\ to to -^ o; ^ 

to O; rH aD 1-1 CO rH 

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in if; UJ U"J m <jJ to "3 a') IT in ■vt- •* CO OJ 



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e^ (o to CM to CO 

<-t O rH rH rH CM 



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to lO O CM ^ 

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CM O O rH rH 



to t- r-l 0> to 

CM ^ rO to CO 

CO to CO CM to 

o cn t-- to -^ 



rH CM CO O ^ 
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Ol ■* lO rH 



■* cv; 

to -"J* 

to •* 



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1 p cr O 



in iT, m u") to 



•^ -^ to C\3 c\i 



S9*^^"^ tO<*COOrH tOtOtOlO'* COrHOJtOCM 

^^C:^2^ eOCMOOSOT OCOC-CO^ OOJtOrHrH 

■*c^?^-■d•m otocMioto onto c>Jt^to t^cM^^j*" 



OrHrHCMCM .-\ O ^ ^ a 



CT) CO t^ to ■^ 



CO -=}* 
c*- en 
to to 



t<» o) in CO lo 
conScoFo (Oc\jy5r^N t^rn^r-o 
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C^ to C- CM o 
O) to lO O CM 



tOpHt^into rHcoc-ocn 



k-..-rfi.-vv,l_j PJrHC^irjtO rHCOC-OCn '^(OCDcni-i 

S SE2S*=''^ CM^COCOCO CcSKu3^- -^SS^S 

to ^C-^tOrH 'i*tOO-0>CM rHOt-LOOi toi-nS 

O) *«•*» Ktt«*« nA^M^k «K 

t~^ OrHCMCMrH OrHrHOO OlOOtOtOtO CM^ 

r-\ rH r-\ ^ r-i r-A rH ,--i r-\ i-H 



a. ^ C^ rH M 

'^ en in CM UJ 
CO cr> CO ^ to 



rHC^OlQtO lOcOCMtOm 

C'Cvjc^'^o r^cmmoD 
c\:r-cDcoo ^alC^^lOoo 



inmtO'-Din inmuTinm ■^:otocv rH 



CO CM 00 to ■^ 

in CM CO to O) rH 

in a, ■* to rH to 

0> K M • at ft 

rH O CM CM rH O 



OJ <a* to CM O 
lO "^ to -(^ to 
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e^ to CO ^ t-- 

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CO t^ to lO to 



rH o m ^ CJ> 

CM rH CO 00 
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to 

CM 

CD 


to 

00 

rH 


m rH cy m Ci 
to c^ m 71 cvj 
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ft 
rH 


CD 


m <» to m in 



rnmOOrH ^ rH -^ <y% ^ 

oitoioocn rHoooooO'^ 

t* iji -^ r-^ 'Xi CMtOrH^tO 

Xi \£i \0 Hi -^ '<<tOCOCMi-l 



CO to CM ■* cn 
CO CO lO Oi to 

to to CM to lO 

• ft ft ft ft 

rH CM rH O rH 



rH O^ LO rH lO 
CO OJ lO CO o 

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CM rH O 0> 0» 



^ CO CO o> o> 

<0 lO CO rH rH 

O CM cn .^ ,-1 

CO C^ LO ■<?• CO 



to en Q CO OO 
rH lo to e^ 

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c^ to 

CD 31 

to CO 


rc cn uD D- CO 
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O X C^ ^ CM 
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o m CO CO '^ 


en en c* CD ■* 
a» M en c^ a> 
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CM to 
rH ^ 


\n --X) <n \n \o 


;o in m -* ■^ 


CO to 03 CO rH 



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CO CM to to CM 

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rH rH O rH CM 



•^ to to CO Oy 

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^ en o to '^ 

<-* O O Oi CO 



lo to en CM c\j 



CO to en o a> 



^- to lO -^ CM rH 



o ^0 rH en CM 

CV -^d' Q o -H 

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^ m m m to 



li^j CO r- o u> ,_.,,_„. 

rHtptOrHtO i^-TJCOC^CM 



tO CO en 

n m ■* ■* V 



■^ 0> CM 00 0» 

m rH CO C^ CM 

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CO CO CM rH rH 



CM lO to ^ CO 
■^ CO ^ tO CO 
j^ to c*- eO to 



tOCMiOCOlO t***i<coc^o 
Ol-^^COlO lO^CMOt- 

OCMinc^c; cMcoc^into 



■H r^ OOrHCMrH rHOCDCOCO C^lO'^tOCM' rH 

■H rH rH f-H rH rH rH rH 



^ ^ C^ O °o 
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to t- CM 



lO CM 

o to 

^ lO 



mc^evocM -Houjcncn co-tootOrH 
inHinoDcn ino^rnp mrnenoiC*- 



CO -^ en rH to 



m m m to m 



>n J2 ^ ■* ti' 



CO CO CM rH rH 



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^0>^ G^ ^ Oi fi* Oi 

•^ Oi rH rH CO t\J tO tO ^f rf 

••III I I I I I 

OlOOiOO ^OiOOiO 

rHrHCM CMfjeO^';^ 



^ OJ -^ C7> ^ 

lO to to (D C- 

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o to o in o 

lO to to to c^ 



en ^ en -^jt 

t^ CO CO c» -« 
Bill 

lO O lO <b to 
t* CO 00 en en 



■* ji I I I 
I I o /^ O 

O m rH rH CM 



oi ^ cn ■ 

csj to to • 

t I I 

.n o i^ < 

OJ p5 CO ' 



^ CT* '^ Oi ^ 

lo m to to ^ 

t I I I I 

o n c5 in o 

m -1 to to D- 



K.ytim(tt('s of Fitturi- Population of the I nitefl States, W.!,0-2000 



69 



tn lO tf) ^ c^ 

eg rvj f^ c^ 

O^ ff> t^ 



CO o 

C\J CO 



to Ol «-! to to 
rH -* O CO to 
to O <H i-H »0 



(O o lO Ti* 
t- OJ (O o> 
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M (O CO O *0 



^mioioio u5minioii5 loo^jteot-j 



IT) 

cr. 



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C- Q 



to 00 o ^ w 
03 o O i« o 
to ,-4 CO lO lO 



to CJ t~ t^ CJ 

cj ^ in o» ■*t< 
lO ^ to ^ c- 



^kOtritoiA mmioinm 



u3 ^ r- * f- 

CD OJ O* ^ t- 

(O C- r-t O ^ 

lO -cj* •* 'J* to 



t^ CO lO o> to 
<0 O O W rH 

lo CO lo r^ 



<4> CM 
O N 



30 lO C* Tf I 
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U> CO OJ 



C? CO 



CO to CO ^ to 
^ O to CVJ lO 

r- cj >"j m U3 

* • * K » 

■^ <A lO lO lO 



CO ^ (O rH t- 

Tt* Q (O ^ CM 

^ ^ lO CO CO 

lO to U> lO >o 



C- CJ O to CD 

cvj ^ rH cn w 

O lO to CM to 

lO ^ -d? ^ BO 



O eo <o to tJi 

to Ch to rH (H 
OJ rH •* r-t 



to CM 



StO tX) CM I 
10 SD CD 

«0 t- CM 



»0 H 

CD > 



cy lo a> 00 CO 
•* t^ (O t- t- 
CD to lO lO r*< 



,-t BO to CD C^J 
■«J* rH i-H CM t- 
^ to 0> 0> r-) 



^iClQiO^A miOLOmiO 



BO t- tO fH O 

to CO 0> rH O? 

t- cr> 00 f-i f-H 

■«a? '*'#■<* to 



U3 CT) * 00 CM 
(O <B CM O rH 
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BO vJ' 
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CM Ok 



to lO Q CO lO 



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CM 00 «* lO p 

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to lO *£> lO •<' 



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CM cn CO to «-4 
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VO iO -t^ DO CM *-» #H 



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rH <»l CM C>- g> 

r-1 to to CO F- 

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« • « • « 

to <o lo ^! in 



CMCOtOOl^ tOCO^-CMO 

lOt^OpOtO "*9<U300iH 

tOO^tOtO t^CRtO 

lO lO ^ to CM ,-{ 



t- 00 

t- CO 
lO rH 



to cj CO to m 

i-i ^ r-\ -^ 
CO to OJ 



Oi c\^ 



to lO to CM CO 

,-t CJ rH rH «** 

CM lO LO t^ O 

lO LO m lo to 



t^ to ■Tt* lO iC 



to lo LO lo in 



•* to ^ O «5 

CM to rH to to 
to 00 rH to ■!*< 



to o to ^ o 

■* to Q t^ ^ 
to CD to 



<*» CM 
lO to 

to pH 



in T»< -^ to CM rH 



C;^»HrH(J>CO Oit^tOrHt^ 

■*CMcOC-'^ CMO^OCOCO 

r-<lOr-OrH ^fHlOcO^N 



CM a* 00 rH o> 
r-t to O to CM 
rH ■<** 00 O to 



CO O to CM CO 

t- to t^ b- 

■<i< C- CJ 



LOinintoto lOiointoLO in-^totocvT h4 



■^ CO -^ Oi ♦ 
p* o X to 

O lO rH 



COQOMCO CMlOCOtOCO 

''•^OCO^ iO,hOO>^- 
fHt^iHrH'T i-ltOOilOCM 



liitototoio loinioiom '#'<*<tocMcT 



loioiom^ ootoo'o to 
oioooio* c-iototo o> 

C^rHinCOO CM^OCM t~ 



to 



■^ C^ -i" ^ 1 

IS CO to to 

Ol -^ rH 



CO O CO rH CM 

LO rH O O 0» 

BO rH CM to ,H 

m to to m LO 



CO OS to CM o 
to t*- CO OS t^ 

to a> to to oo 

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lo m lO in '^ 



0> BO rH o o 
to CO to to 00 

«■><■>'•■ 

^ to to CM rH 



cy oj to CM to 

to ^'J "(f !0 
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O CO to t^ b- 

fH «H CM CM rH 

t- CM »0 CM b- 

* * * * • 

in to lO to to 



rH CM CO C^ ^ 
■^ to CO CO to 

o t^ ^ o> in 

« • « * A 

to in in ■<:*« V 







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rH to t- to m 


m 




to CM 


CO CM 00 •* 


^ 


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to o> 


o in r^ 


to 


o 


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**« to CM CM rH 



CO CO to cn (O 

C\i t- CO CM 
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CO h- 
<0 CM 



•H to to to O) 
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0> O to CM to 
CM t- CO O) to 

CO in o to CM 



rH <0 to **" to 

r^ 00 t- CM to 
00 CM m o lO 



to CO BO rH (O 
rH •* t^ ■«* 

O) ^ rH 



toioiointo loioin-^^ cotocMCMrH 



H 

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o to 

CM ^ 



^ 01 CM 00 C- 
CM lO CM CM 

^- to <-i 



b- to ■* to in 
00 to o> to o> 

rH CM b- pH OD 



CO CM O 0» to 

^ t- o to ^ 

CO rH (D to O 



■* CM ^ ^ 0> 
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to CD to Ol CM 



O lO ^ CM rH 
a> rH in ^ rH 

t^ -"J- r-4 



s. 



mmiOtOlO lOlO'*-*-^ tOCMCMrHrn 



CM to 
en rH 

lO o 



536726 0-43-6 



I o 

O Eh 



^ oj ^ 

^ Oi rH rH CM 

I I I I I 

o m o m a> 

rH rH CM 



OJ tJ* oi ■* o> 

CM to to -^ -^ 

I I t I g 

in o in o *« 

CM (O to ^ ^ 



^ Oi -^ Oi ^ 

to lO to to C^ 

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o to o lO o 

m to to *© c*- 



0> '^ (7> Tj< 

t^ CO oD o» ^y 

I I I I 

Lf- O t^ O lO 

t^ CD CO CT) 0> 



i^ 



70 



National Resources Planning Board 



t* to ^ U3 00 

t^ r-l to lO O 

O -"f ■* u> t^ 

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 



cotointo*-* o>cot-c\jeo 



to ->»• N W to 

^ (O a> <o 
e^ CO N 



Tt*-*'*'*'* ■«J<-<J<tOiOOf rH 



to N 

to to 



O-^^^tO «OO>«Of-C0 U}CDCM(OtO 

Oi o>' ^ n a> cM^toiocc cototOrHoa 

CD(-t<^IO^ CDtOlOlOtO COt-OltOO) 

BO'««<'*^^ ^^^^^ ■^■<i*totoevj 



to ^ t- cr ^ 

■^ t^ t£) C-J t^ 
rH -^ lO t^ CO 



tOGOCOCQr-l OOrtCJCO 

ojcnt^toto tOi-HOtoto 
oot*-t~o)i-i owtoeoto 



T^ ^f* ^ '^ lO 



to ^ to to C>J rH 



£-0>pOO>«> iJ*CT)eOC^(D CVJtDiOtOCD 

tt>-t«5j<0>^ t*-aDCDUJO tDOJiOtOiO 

fttJtO^tO tOlOlOt^O 0»CVlC-(OrH 

lO^^^-^ Tj<<<^Ti*iO ^'*tO»OtO 



Oi ■* eg »0 rH 


0> N to 'J* ^ 


CO lO O) to o> 


■* 0> Q 


a> E- ■>*• o> N 


cj csj o to C3 
CO 00 O C\i N 


(O 00 to CO U3 
^ Ol Ol 5* ■* 


o o» to 


rH lO t^ CO en 


lo to eg 



^ ^ ^ ^ tJ* 



^ tjH 1/3 lO lO 



^ to to lo eg 



fr- to 

0> Csl 

■* to 



8 



CpOQ^ 'i'tOlO.-H^ COtOCvjOrH 

^otDa> rHrHOcocD otomco,-t 

BOlOtOtO tOtOOOOO ^ O i-i CD o 

lO lO Tj* ■^ ^ lO to 



^ ^ ^ ^ ^ rf ^ 



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^ O ^ Q lO 

to ^ to » eg 

CO o to to to 

■^ iii lo ui -^ 



gcg to Tt* CO 
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eg to rH eg eg 

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op eo t- lO ^ 

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to to CM 



rH to 
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to S 



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^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 



egr-ftooiC^ ojtoiooto 

-^^eOU3.-( OtOoiOrH 
tOCOr-trHU^ cg'^tOt-CO 



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^ ^ ^ to eg 



r-l CO CD CO r-4 
to rH iO t~ op 

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^ lO to ^- CO 

» CO O rH t* 

O to "i* t- to 

lO lO lO ■* •* 



to C^ lO M O 



^ ^ to w eg rH 



OtOOOtO ODCg^^tO TplOrHOCO 

<Ot*CgtOtO tOt^-rHCOrH lOCgmtOrH 

MCOt^CDtO COrHCNJUJtO CDt-rH't*«lO 



^■^-^Tf^ ^ \a iQ -^ ^ 



^ *j' * CO eg 



o to ^ •* •* 
eg to 0> O i-H 

to 0» CO O) rH 



to <0 ■* CO CO 

eg lo CO to eg 

^ ^ t^ 'V CO 



^■^■<*^lO lOlO^^^ 



O CO op eg t- 
^ o ^ o> o 
CO eg lo to CO 



lO rH O ■* W 
CO r-l t- to 

O to rH 



■<J* ■•i' to CVl rH rH 



m Ut i-i 0> t-i tO^JtlOcOO COCOfDOSO 

,-«c\itOt^cn Oioeot^t^ egOrHcOrH 
^b-tococo wegtotot- o>iOo>ocg 



^ ^ Tft ^ ^ 



lO lO ^ ^ *4« 



^ ■* to to eg 



I 



^ -^ ^ lO lA 



t* to ^ O lO 
0> to to to rH 

'i' CO lo oi o 
* « « * « 

to Tt< ^ ^ lO 



•* to ^ lO CO 

c^ **• CO to eg 

■«** 0> rH to to 

* * * ^ « 

^ to (O eg rH 



to ^ c- eg to 

00 to ^ to 

01 ^ rH 



<-Ht-rHOOJ t^rHt^egco eoo>coiOto 

tOtOairHCg COt^Cg-<J<iO OrHOlrHOO 

^totooiCg cgto^ooo t-eg^t-cT> 

• •>**•> ««»M* *«»•. 

^^^^lO lO^^-^io ^Tt<cocgr-i 



I 



^ ^ lO to to 



rH to t^ lo eg 

r- CO O c^J •* 

00 lO O *H to 

^ ^ to lO -«*" 



§ot CO o» to 

^ o> eg o 

eg lo t- rH lO 

^ to eg eg rH 



to eg t^ O to 
t^ oj to to 

CO to rH 



to en 

to CO 

<n 00 



to c^ eg oi -^ 

3<n eg **< rH 
to o) eg to 

■*■*'* to U3 



egiooiegto toegtoe^to 
ptocniocg ot^t^tOrH 

C-<**COrHCO ^C'-O'^CO 



■*■*■* lO ^ 



^ to to eg rH 



to O CD to to 

tO t^ o to o 

to rH to to 0> 

« * « • * 
^ lO lO to ^ 



<g *# rH rH b- 
Cg to rH to to 

to o eg c^ to 



w-i t-A U^ r-* t^ 

O) to eg t^ to 
t^ rH to o> to 



•*lOtO-*-<** tOtOCgrHrH 



t^ CO t-- to eg 
to to eg eg 

IV to r-< 



to t*- 

to to 

0> rA 



tDO>^b-CO tO^tOtO^- lOtOtOlO^ 

tocNjtotocg (r> -^ Oi a c^ ^ oi to to en 

^Oicgtot* ^a>rHOto o>tot»-c\jm 

««««« ««•*« «««■>• 

t*<^ioiOTtt ^-^lo^-^ totoegcjrH 



■^ O O c^ o> 
to eg O) to lo 
CO to to ot to 



eg to <£> o (o 

rH E^ •!) t^ lO 

rH eg 00 '^ 



-^lAIO^t^ toto-^^ 



3 



0> CO to rH to 

to to ^ LO lO 

to CO to t- rH 

to eg eg rH rH 



O O •-• eg esi 

o» '^ t-t C<i 
to to rH 



o a> 
eg rH 


tt N to O) to 

u5 t- 40 ^ eg 


« • 


to eg to t^ to 


to oi 
to 


•<*< to to -* ■'J* 



^ to ^ ^ -"J* 



'J* O lO CO lO 

CO o to to to 

^ o> to en to 

* » » « «k 

to eg eg rH rH 



Oi to eg eg to 

oi o to en to 

r-< to Oi to 1-1 

to to ^ ^ to 



O w t^ o> o> 

rt O to to rH 

to CA to O to 

* • « « > 

to '<1' ■* **• to 



rH to O to ^ 
to ^ en rH to 

o to o to o 



to to tf) CM eg 
to o> tn CM 
to eg 



CO to 
to o 
to CD 



^egtotpto Ototoioto 
cototo^rH ojcgt*-^o> 
o>tot-too cgotOrHto 



to CO to to o> 
^ r# eg to o 
rH t*- eg to eg 



tt* iO -^ •* ix> lOtO'^^to tocgcgrH^ 



eg to CO CO eg 

flO C^ rH tJ> CO 

eg 0» t- rH eo 

to ■^ ^ lO to 



00 e^ 00 ■* o 

to to to to eg 

oi to «-i to eg 

^ ^ ^ to CO 



to to ^ CM rH 

to (O rH 00 O 

CO to 00 to o 

C<1 C^ r^ r~i r^ 



eg (O ^ a> CM 

t^ to 0» rH 
to CM 



r- CM 

to o 

to Oi 



t- t- to , _ 
o t^ to o to 



la ^ ^ io in 



eg iH O CO eg 

r- to rH t^ to 

O t^ eg to eg 

« * » • A 

to ^ -^ to to 



to to rH to O 
O) rH cn 00 rH 

CO ■* CO <*• rH 
« * • « * 

eg eg rH rH rH 



3 I 

o* 

• rH 

I 



t^ ■* eg ^ to 

0> to to CO rH 

to t* eg tC O 

•* •* to to to 



'J* ^ to to 60 



CO ■* cn •* to 

to to to rH t* 
to O to to CO 



00 O CM t^ to 
OC A OO rH 



d 

SQ 



•* 


^ o> ■* 
en rH rH eg 


o> ^ en ^ 
c^l n to ^ 


• o» 


Tft Oi ■* 0> 't** 

to to to to t^ 


► 
o 
a» ^ o> ^ 

t^ CO 00 c» «ti 


i 


(111 

to O to O 
rH rH eg 


to Q to C 

eg n to <( 


o to o lo o 
to to to to c^ 


40 O to O lO 
r^ CD CO 0> 0» 



O E^ 

to to 
to 



■* * t^ «) to 

eg t>- to « rH 

to lO O n rH 

tt< ■4< to to to 



^ ^ bO to to 



to •<^ a> eg lo 

^ to (D C- CM 

to o tb to o) 



1 
































o 
































► 






^ 


o> 


•* 


cn 


■* 


O) 


* 


en 


•* 


a 


^ 


o> 


■^ 


+> 


■? 


2 


rH 


rH eg 


eg 


to 


to 


^ 


^ 


to 


to 


to 


to 


t^ 


i 


i 


1 1 

to O 


1 
to 


1 
o 


1 
to 


i 


to 


i 


J, 


6 


1 

to 


6 






t-i 


ft 


CM 


eg 


eo 


to 


T»i 


*o 


to 


to 


to 


ti 



Kstimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



71 



f-t rH lO O N 

lO eO D' rH iH 
CNJ CSJ ^ ^ 



to o> 
^ o 

l-t -^ 



to rH ^ t* O 
■# U) <VJ Oi *H 
I-* r^ ^ 



rH lO 



' O t^ rH l« 



t^ CO to t^ Oi 

o N ^- CO 
o o to 



Oi CM 

to t- 

CM U3 



^ o> O i-l *o 

csi lO ^ 



t^ M Q CO rH 



■ M O 

I in »o 



r-t ■<*« lO O CO 
O O to CO 

C^ o> to 



to CO 

to CO 



lO ^ c- o c- 

C^ r-4 O t^ 
lO OD eO 



■ ^ o 



^ CO to o to 

W to t-- r-« lO 



■* OJ b- CJ . 
m Oi ^ r~i 



'* ^ O) o to 
r-t ^ CO to 
'i' t- C\J 



• ^ o ^ 



OlO lOCyCvJOJOl rHtOtOrH, 

rtCVJ t-OO'^OtO OJCMlOf-4 

rH C\J N rH rH 



to PJ O) to to 
en lO CM to 

W to CM 



rH O 
lO CO 
t- CO 

(O 



■* O 115 to 
rH CM t- 



t> o rH o to CM eo I 

CO to lA CM Oi -^ ^ 
rH CM to CM CM rH 



to ^ ^ CI to 
to lO O "^ 
rH in CM 



to to 

to CO 



^rHtOC^rH rHCMtOt*-rO lOOtOOJ 

rHCMC^OJ C^COCOOlC^ t-IQ'^i* 

rH CM to to CO CM rH 



- 8 



e 



to Tj« CO rH ^ 

<0 0> CO -^ 

O: ■<# rH 


LO 

rH 

to 




to 



in to 

CM o 



' "*• rH CO <n BQ a> 

• rH CM r- 0> t* 



^toouat- otooicn 

OtOcpOCM lOrHtO 

to "^f ^ m ^ CM rH 



CM t- ID ^ ■ 

to m in to 

CO '^ rH 



O CM 

to to 
en m 

^ cm' 
to 



•^rH tOOm^Cn CMtOCM'^CO 

r-* CMCOmCOrH C-'^^t^CO 

rH to •'i* in to lO EO 



CM T*< en 

CM O to 
CM rH 



O to lO CD eO 
to rH CM CM 
to to rH 



a 



o 

o 

a 
o 



'•♦rHt^ rHtOCOOCO ^OOtOtD rH^tDOO, 

rHCM flOOCOtOO OJOOCM* OOtO 

' rHtO^ lOt-t-mtO CMrH 



CO rH C- t^ Q 

0> Cn to rH to 

rH to to to 



m to 

in 



- _ - - en ^ to fr~ rH 
tOO'^tOrH OiotO 
t- CO to ^ to r-t ^ 



rH 

3 



'H to a» c^ in 

*0 Q O CM 
U) n rH 



Oi -^ <ji ■^ 

t^ 00 CO <n -e 

1 ' • < 

lO O in o m 

^* 00 CO oi o> 



-P 






(D CM 
rH in 
00 to 

^ to 
in 



■? 




4 

■H 

• 


^ Ot -^ 

^ 0> ^ rH CM 


O 


o m o lo o 



■* to Q t>- C^ 

oi -^ n tn rH 

rH to lO to CO 



Oi -^ Oi '^ Oi 

CM to CO ^ ^ 

I I I I I 

tn o in o kp 

CM W to ^ ^ 



to to to to o <r CD ( 

00 to t- CM rH 5» 00 I 

(Z> r- in ^ to .H 



^ Ol ^ CT) H* 

in lo to (o t- 

I I I I I 

O m o in o 

in m to to E^ 



C7> 'J" O) "* 

f- CO CO Oi -a 



in o m O in 
t^ CO CO o> a> 



■* rH 

rH 

o 



1S 

O o 



72 



Natioftdl /iestnirces' PlajntuKj Baani 



• to r- '**' o> CM 03 to • 



r-llOC-Nff'' »OC0WU)C^ r-cowow 

wr*c-c^«3 lOincvtoc: oitocotcio 

P-a3CO000D CDCOCOD-C^ (OU>^C0O; 



-- s: 



cHCTitO^UJ Ot^lOCOOl O'cJ'tDOaD 

sfr-C^i>C^ C^COCO-^W OlOrH-^t^ 

^xcoQOQO cocor-i>r- c^io-^wp^ 



o 



•^ CO CD CO O 

■<:r l> C^ CO CO 
C- CO X CO oo 



OiHOO^W COOlCOO)^ 



OtOlOU3f-4 QtOt-CM, 



■^ 01 C^ QO rH 
^ C- X 00 to 
>• CO X CO CO 



tOCQDCVCO ODCOW-^in 

r-t X 03 C^ ':;' O: ro Cn £^ C7^ 
ajP-r-C^UD vfi'ttOOOr-4 



inoiwoa-t^ u^xiiO'j'ri eoinaDO.)«H 

"^ 00 (J* 'D CV Oi O 01 C^ :0 C', LfJ t J (i; C*« 

c^'ioojcoco c^X)^tOio m«4'coo'i-i 






■ ^010 lOtOWt-O tOOtONi 

. r-lCM t^O>CO-tJ*t- rHtOlOf-l 

. f-t W eg W rH 



in 0"> r- f-'j o cy (-1 o: CO r- o ci oj pj <*- 

C^XXCO'3) QOCO^DlOlT) lOC^tOWiH 



• ^ o to t- 

. ^ N C- 



r-( O 00 tJ* t^ 
O O CO '*' r^ 
^ W CJ to CO 



OS 'J* •-• rH , 
•<* ■* in r-4 



ccinr-(Ooj cc\JU3ifiQ 

iTjC^niHCO WrHOCTi'T' 

C-CDCOCOCO ""' 



D- 01 to U3 (D 



■<*• O «> CO ■* 

^ eg t- o 



O C*- CO O «3 
rH i-H Q »H CO 

csj to ^ -* to 



U> to ^ r-l 



woicvCJ'^ (rwc^r'rH tor-rncocc 
^'cocM't'^ cvojrHu:i£^ o;pjcooc^ 

r^QOCDflOCO P-tD(i)lOV -^tOOJi-HiH 



10 O O 'i' CD 

to 10 CO e^ c^ 

tO ■* ^ 'J' to 



w -^ CO in 03 

H C. <* ifJ ^ c^ ^9 '- -^ 
c^QOcocoD' tO'iJin^ 



• r-* CJ CO O M 'J* 

• r^ m to 



^ 10 in -^ to 



rH '«*• «f 

eg ^ ^ 



iH/HCVfJCM '^oosc^u:' tor-iopj** 

Om'^lfiin IflrHrHCDrH COOiCVCtrO 

F-cooor-io ^■oin^-^l' coccw»-tiH 



rH CO in m to 
CO O N to o> 

r-1 CVJ to -* 



lo 10 *^ to in 

to (H t- "^ C^J 

in to m ^ to 



m r-t I 

S3 



CM U3 (O UD L 
C^ fO p- lO to 



,.: to rH 't OJ 

^ lO ic ^ ^ 



^ ^ to c 10 



-'(NO 
to CV OJ 



ifHCOCM OCOrHcOCn 

rHCMCO i-tCNJtOOOO 

r-i C4 to in m 



c^ e* «*< i-i ^ •♦ I 

m to CM CM Q C3> O I 

<D to in ^ (O «-l rH 



COCOrH'^CD OllOCJOr' 

coy^c-co-^ lococ^mto 
c-:^iO(i3i inirt'^^to 



c\; to (Ti CTi c^ 

CO u"i r* a r-i 

to CO rH -H rH 



^ fH 



^rHC^CSJr^ ^COCOCOt^ CJtOtOOM (O, 

r-<NCO(H tOtOrHOCO 00aJCJ>O»O> (C 

c-t cMtoin^co (oio'^cocsi f-t 



> in o N 



« ■^ CD 



C* t> f-l ** c^ 

10 c* 01 li) S 10 a> a> (■; to 
tDV4:isDtDio m^-^-^co 



»H •-( J^ 01 CO 
O CO "-D Ul CO 

W W <-( rH 



o 10 o m o 



CJ to to ^ 'J' 






Tt< o> •«*• 0> ■* 

in in to o fr- 
ill I I 

o m o 10 o 

lO in to to e'- 



en ■* o* ■* 

t- 00 CO o> ^ 

I I I I 

lO o 10 O lO 

t^ CO CO o> o> 



-a 



tl« 0» 1 I I 

I I O in 6 

O lO <H rH CNi 



Oi ^ o> ■^ cy» 

CO CO to -^ ■* 

I I I I I 

lO O in Q uj 

« C-J C-J 4- <* 



KMimntes of Fuhnr Pojiulatioii of tin I 'n'ltfd States, Ul.',() 20U() 



73 



O Tj 
CD O 






en lO LO 33 JO lO C* W lO lO 
Oi •^' O^ liTJ > 0> M to W 
\0 O -d' lO CJ rH .-4 



^ o 

03 rH 



CM lO 

CO m 

X- CO 



W in i:J Ifi lO L-^ C\J C^ ■5' LO 



CD O". 



CO CO 

CO \n 



O CO en '<3' r^ -I- 00 CO rH lO 



£ Sj* ^' L'"J C\i (-1 



, w- «. w O) o; o o iH 



Oi o o o> CO 
to ^o t" " ■" 



■^ r-K cj ^ -^ ^ to c : tn to 

■^' O CJ fJ -^ ^ CJl sp ^ 

lO lO 't cO Oj rH 



o 

rH 

to 
o 



V lO 

Ui to 

CO V 









O CTl GO ^O ^D 



O 
O 



GO r-\ 



in 


r- oc 


CO 


7 C^ 


'■-' 


■X) ir. 



C) kD k£, C^ -^^ XiDsJ'Oi^ 

ir. r- u^ fH oj CO C-. cr. ep 



^•r-C0U3O i-HUiCOrH 

ic ■* CO 03 rj rH 



IN UJ 
D- rH 
03 OO 



lO 00 N 10 O 

in in CM o « - . 
r^oooocDso ooc^yj 



rH o > oo in 

SCO 
in 



rH c^ ir. in in rH in liij o to 
c>. '^ r. ID u:j o in c\j rH 

in ■<« rj CO rH rH 



■^ CD 

CO r- 



^o:'OEOto c\:toc^rHin 



C^ to yD "i- in 



_ in in cj CO c\. 

en CC O: rH -^^ CO '%;* C^ rH 

'^^ CO to O: rH 



ID CTi 

fJj to 
00 O 



o 



a> «3 
00 to 



, r UJ in ^ 

1 rH CO -^ to 

. X CD CO r- 



to in CO ■sjt to 
'4' "^ CO ^ to 


in o: Cy (D o: 


re 03 iC CO c\j 


^ iD iO L'i in 


^ CO C\: rH rH 



OJ a> 
to ew 

00 to 



^ to 

to lO 

CO a< 



o <Si (x. ro o\ 
o to in -^ in 

£»- CO ^ c- ^ 



o 05 i> N >-< 
*o in o '^ to 
(£)(£) to in ^ 



rH eg 01 CO o 

CO rH oj in o 

■<J< CO CU rH rH 



^ Cy rH e^ rH ■* 

;£- UO Cv; rH 



to to 



tx> ir. ^ rH to o CD r- 01 C\j 

c\jininc--P- r-c\ja:>coc^ 



c>- in m o <H 
uj c- a- CO cr 


C) t^ «J to r-t 


Mi 


0) OQ CD 


CO to rH 


>-H 


t4 ^ to 


::0 O; rH rH 




t* 


tJ CD CO 








M * 






t^* 


J3 



CO o 

£2 



rHOOO^Oal DOuO-Din 

-4' in C*- Ol CO -q* rH rH O CJ^ 

c- D- j3 to ^ ^ <u n in t'j 



CD to rH CO li"i 
rH CO U:* rH rH 
to Cy rH rH rH 



CO CO U9 rH 
CJ r-i 



C 

o to U} 

■rl to Q 

4-> CO <* 



w o en (O N 



CO c^ 
P- CO 



-3 

Ei 



cirHOmo* -^ro^o-coto 
incooo^ cotococvin 
loop-c^^ ■j^inin^i'co 



■^ tO tn CO rH 
r- CT) ■^ T CD 
CM rH rH rH 



eO to CN» lO ^ <-< 

^ W rH ^ 

03 



0) p '.o 
t3 F- in 
q r- O) 



CTi ^ CTi ^ 

C^ O) CO (r> ab 

' » 1 ' 

in c <c^. ct ^ 

C^ to CD CJi C7» 



■<3« CJ^ ^ 
rH rH CO 

'I' a> I I I 

I I o -n o 

O -Ti rH rH Ov 



CTi ^ cn -ii' o» 

III'! 

liJ o A 

r\^ to to 



? ^ 



Tf en -tr en "<r 

ai u"; to t^:; c- 

- - I I 

lO o 



<~> in Q U3 

in in <« *^ 



CTi <• O^ "a* 

r- jj CO ci «a 
till 

lO c >n o in 

c^ x> -s) <y> c^ 



•ra ^ ♦> 
•c; I o 



74 



National Resources Planning Board 



cot^-coo** oucotnioio 



Oi 0> t«- U5 O 



cj o eo to 

<?>OOr-tiH ^r-l>Hr-trH rHrHO>t-CO 



(O to •«*• lO 

t^ to m •-( CNj 

^ r-4 & C\J 



U3 to 
U3 <0 



8 

O 






O to 00 0> CM 

to lo n to t- 

OJ CO o (O t^ 



CO <M t- lO rH 

a» CO CO w o 
00 «> lO e^ ,-H 



lOtO^DOcO t-0<-4tT)CM 

CO<7>U)Om i-<CVJ0O*H 



to r-( 

o o 



0>Cai-H»-l«H rH.-H»HrHCvJ .HOlCOOOtD 



rH t- CM -^ in 

00 lO lO C\i -^ 

O lO t|> 00 O 

lO U3 m lO <0 



C- to O N CO 

.H Q <-t 0> lO 

r-4 O 0> 0> r-t 

CO (O 10 to to 



■^OlCOlOOp OrHt^lOlp CO^tOlOO 

*J«^tOt--* f^ CO t^ to -^ WCOO<7>Oi 

OOiotoco t-(ocotoej lototowo 

n«*«« •*^»« ««*«« 

OrHrHrHi-t »Hi-Hr-tWOJ O^JlCJiOOtO 



U5 U3 to rH .H 
to r-l lO CO CM 
a> O C^ rH 



to (O 

Ol o> 
00 O 



•^ 0> to 0» CM 
CM to O t^ 00 
»H to CO Oi O 



OS o> to to o 

•H to CO 0> CVJ 

O CTj O Cy CM 



LOtOtOlQtO tOlOtOtOtO 



m Ol lo cj o 

0> »H ^ lO to 

i-H to to t^ to 

O r-T^rH r-t 



O to OJ -^ lO 

lO t^ m CO t* 

to 0> ■*'«*< CO 



CO t^ to t^ to 

rH 0> to CM 00 

O) rH to C*- C- 

CT) O 0> t* LO 



CO Ol 

u) to 
O lO 



CM »0 r-< t^ ■# 
O 0> to t-t CO 
CM fr*- Ol O OS 



lO CO (O rH ^ 
CD ^ OS to rH 
0> rH lO to lO 



U>IOiOt010 lOtOtOtO'O 



CM t- »J< to CM 
00 CM CM to O 
^ to C^ lO to 



lO rH O ^- CM 

c- to e^ ^ ,-( 

c^ lo OS to to 



CO to Q ID ' 
lO r-t to to I 

eo c>- to 1-4 



CM (O 

to to 

10 eO 



O r-* ,--( r^ r-i CMCMCMrHO OOOOC^IO tOrH 



o 

00 



n:^* «rH CM 

^ Tit 3r N to 

to OS OS A Ok 
to U> lO U3 lO 



to (O to lO to 



^ t* OS O OS 
t* O *0 rH to 

t^ t^ to irj o> 



O *H to CM rH 
to ^ to lO rH 
rH CO lO t* OS 



'J' CO rH to tH 
O to O to rH 
rH to to rH 



■* o» 
t- to 
to to 



* CO to Q to 

Cft CO o » to 

9 0> 0» B> rH 



CO t*- CD O lO 
CD to to <TS O 
^ to ^ CM to 



O rH rH ^ rH 



CMCMrHOrH rHOSCOtO'* 



IOIOlOIOU) totOiOiOlO 



rHtOlOCMt^ rHtOCMOCTS tOCMCM'*tO 

lOCMCOCOrH CMlOQtOtO OCOlOiO^ 

OOlOTfCOtO OitOtOtOlO ^tOCOCMlO 

*^*«<k «■>**• MMItn*) 

OrHrHrHCM O^ ^ C, i-* >~* OOSteCO'* 



to <^ OS O ^ 
to OS rH CM rH 
OS ^ in rH 



eo eO ^ t- CM 
to OS t^ ^- <o 

to <S CO O ^ 



lO «!*• -^ OS to 

to O CO to CM 

lO CO to t- t- 



lOtOiOtOtO (OiOlOlQtO 



^ Ol rH OS lO 
CO to to to Ol 

to ^ en lo c^ 
* « * « « 

O rH rH CM CO 



CO t-- to CM rH 

cjs o to CO r* 
to t> to e- t* 



CO t- CJl to o 

to lO CO OS lO 

0» to CM t- to 

Ol CO t*- lO ^ 



rH CM OS to CM 
f-H Ol to pH rH 
b- CM -* rH 



tO^'^t*'-* oiototoo 

<i<tOtOO^ ^lO^tOtO 

•^COO^ItO cD'*«k0OCM 

• **** ««*«« 

LOLOCOtOtO lOiOlOiOlO 



^ CO 'i* ^ 00 

'T <# CM CM to 

to CO to c- to 

O rH CM CM rH 



CO CM C- rH O 

in to C^ rH rH 

c^ to O) o to 

O i-i i-i r^ (D 



to CM 00 00 to 

OS t- to in 00 

rH O t^ to Ol 

OS CO to LO to 



to OS en OS o 

's** to ^ Ol <-H 
to rH ^ 



to lO 00 ^ to 

CM lO OS Ol O 

•^ O to 5ft CO 

in 'to to (O in 



in to <* CO CM 

t^ CM CO to O 

^ a> o) to o 

«t » « » * 

in in lo m Li? 






OS «i< to to to 



to 00 CO ^ rH 
CM rH O to C^ 
C^ rH CM in m 



CO CO O 00 OS 
rH CM rH OS ^ 

to in in o ^ 



CM r-l lO ^ I 

CM ^ 00 CD 
rH rH to 



to CM 

^ <o 

OS CM 



rHCMCMnHO rHCOriOOl COb-tOlOtO CJrH 

r-t r-t i-i r-i i-i rH ,-i r-i r-i 



O rH CO lO -* 
rH OS CD to in 

to to ^ t^ ^ 



CO OS to op to 
to to CO ^ CD 
OS O '^ rH to 



lOtOtOlOtO tOtOtOlO*:? 



CM OJ CO CO CO 
■* O 00 lO rH 

to t- CJ to t* 



O in CM to rH 
O in t> to rH 
CM to C^ CO O 



O CM rH O O 

t* to OS CM CM 

O CM C7S ■* rH 

* * <k « « 

CO t- in ^ :o 



;8$ 



to C^ 

OS 



to CO OS OJ O 
rH to to to ■* 
rH to CM 00 ■* 



lOtointoin toioio^'* 







^ O ■* O pH 






to 00 to t- rH 






00 CM to (O CM 


2 


OS 


* * tt • • 


H 


rH 


rH rH O rH CO 


n 






ji 






+> 







CM to to rf* CO 
^ to ^ CO CD 

in to t- to in 
• • ^ • • 

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i-i r-t r-i r-i 1-t 



^ O) ^ 
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■ I I I • 



^ to to CO CM 

^ to in o c^ 

^ o» o to ^*" 

rH O O O) 00 



to CM m CO in 
cft •*• ^ CO m 
O CM m t- PJ 



in m OS CM CM 
CO O O O to 
CO C^ CM O OS 



to «0 OS O 00 

■^ CM b t- 

^. CO A 



t- (O in ^ CM rH 



^ ^ C^ O 00 

8t^ t^ e^ rH 
t- CM 



t-i O o> CO KO ^-ln^tocM i-t 



Oi -^ Oi ^ Oi ^OstCOS-^ 

CMtOtO'J'^ UllOtOtDt^ 

I I I J t I I I I 



otooioo inoinoin otnotno 

rH t^ a CMtOtO^V lOtOtOtOf- 







« 






> 






o 




^ 




C^ op CO 

• " 1 

in o to 


OS 

o 


in 


t- CO CO 


OJ 


OJ 



8 



t« 



j3 


f~t CO 




rH to 


U 


rH 


o 




<H 




•rt 




• 




-p 




to 




3 


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1 4> 


t3 


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O to rH C» CM 

CM tj< Q O rH 

O t> ^ Ot f-i 

CO to in to to 



to to c^ o to 

rH to to rH (O 

to to 0> to CM 

in in ^ ^ ^ 



;5 s 



1^ s. 



inCJCJOCM rHO^OJCJS 

lOrHlOCDOS lOt-^rHO 

eO-*OSrHtO tJiOf-'«»'CM 

lOlOlOCOlO lOtO'**^^ 



^ Ol ■* 

^ OS rH rH CM 
I I I I J 

O to O lO Q 



Ol ■* OS ■*»« < 
CM to to -"J" ■ 



Estimates of Future Population of the I 'nited States, 1940-2000 



75 



a> v> ^ lo o> at Oi to 

« * «k * • « 
u3 uD ^ n csj ,-4 



\o to 

CO 



o 

8 



toiotoooo wojinrH^ ■<i*'*o>ajOi 
oo«^«toio c-t-«)u>to c=SS»ro 
■^loiotouj loiowioio lOiOTpeoto 



C^ (D o O c*- 

rH op «) ^ r-( 
lO eO ID rH 



O OJ 
C4 OD 



'i' Tjt u3 ro r-i 
0> 00 O -^ CT) 

o> a> CM cu oi 



O r-l 0> Ol t- 

00 00 O CO 
t- CO eO 



s 



i-H lO ■***'# to eg rH 



to CO 

lO to 
CO 



p>o>«oiot* Ncnc-coto 

b-oco-^cvi oor-r-tto*^ 

OOCO(OlOt- t*-tO(Ot^O> 

'TlOlOiOlO lOlOlOlOlO 



CVJ h. CO ^ r1 
«> t^ lO «c ^ 
00 0> »0 rH lO 

* * * • « 

m ^ ^ ^ eo 



** CO Oi o> to 
Oi iH O CSJ r-l 
fO ro Ui rH 



W O 
eg cj 



O iH S lo ea eg 

SPO to 1/5 CJ) t- 
• • • • • • 

r-t lO Tj* T*« PO CNJ rH 



t- -^ e^ ^ CO 

CO rH 00 CO 
to CO CM 



to O 

* * 

lO CO 

CO 



O^COIOCO ^ ,~i C^ Oi ^> 

wt--tOo>to OlOOltOCVJ 
OltOlOtot^ COtOt^OO 



to (O C*- lO 00 

M (H ^ t^ <0 

eg t^ t-- KJ (O 

• «•>«* 

lO -^ -«• t*t to 



CO rH CO to 'J* 
t*- O to rH rH 
eg CVJ ^ rH 



t^ to 

(M CO 

to to 

u> to 

CO 



CO eg CD C-. o 
in t- to -ijt CO CD 

CD OJ O to lO U5 
0* • * • * • « 
jH ^ lO ^ to eg rH 



o> CO m eg to 

lO LO CD CO 

lo e^ CNj 






o to 

to o 

'-0 to 

to to 

CO 



to CO -^ to to 
o> CO 00 to c^ 
ty> lO CO t^ to 



^ 0> to W rH 

to cJ o eg to 

CO CO rH rH to 



CO to t^ rH CO 
to to 00 to O 

Oi r-t 0> i-l tU 



^lOiotoio loiototoio ^ \a rii fii to 



(E ^ CO CT> CO 

t^ o eg o t-H 

<D ^ -^ ,-t 



CO to 
oi in 
to eg 



CO <o (D eg to 
o> to eg oo CO 
•o rH eg to to 



to to f-H flO U3 

« n (£» lo 

<<t F- <g 



C0 

O 



.<-H lO to ^ to eg rH 






40 N 



r-ttOt-eOtO COrHrH-^O 

lOioioioio lototoioin 



o> lo eg ^ CO 
^- o> 'i* to eg 

eo to c^ (7) en 

• * • • » 

U3 lo ^ lo eg 



rH O O t" rH 

i-t t-^ <:> o> t~* 
a> o ■^ 



COt^CgoO^ PJCOtOrHl 

OOrHCgrH USCO'^lO 

to^-OrHcg tocoeg 

u:i ^ ■^ :o eg rH 



•* to 

o» ^ 



a> <X} CO rH eg 

t- rH to eg ro 

C\J t*- CO (O CO 



^ -"r o> CO o> 
to to o to eg 
i-t eg in rH to 



tO^rH^C- CgrHCOCOO 

lOtocgegoj mmiOcOrH 

tOrHlOtOtO C-CJ>tO 



lOlOlOlOlO tOtOlOlOiO lOlO'^COeg rH 



^ 0> to 0> rH 
eg t^ rH O t^ 

o -^ t- <n O 



lO W to to lO 
t~i -^ r^ ^ 

PQ to eg 



U3 ^ to CM eg rH 



to Oi 
O Oi 
to CT) 



l/-^Jr^ .^2®^^*^ CgwiniOlO rHtOt--*© rH 

„,„'OlO lO-*rHWrH COOtO^*^ " 

tOtOtOOOrH CgiQCNitOCO COCftrHtO 

loiomioto tomioiQio lo-^-^tocg r^ 



eg tn 
^ to 
t* to 



eg rjt ^ Ti* to 
- — 1 eg rH 

rH ^ ^ to eg eg 



--, , ,_ OJrHSO^^ 

otococgrH cgtocn^ 
' rH -^ c^ o eg lo 



eg ■<*♦ 

CM r-i 

OJ esj 



t* to CO eg rH 

to o OJ to in 
eg to t^ rH e\j 



cnt-o-^rH tofto^cgio 
cousojrH^ ^cncgc-to 
uiCNjcoojin rH'**cootO 



eg eg t- eg CO 
CO to c^ b- 
^ r- eg 



lommtoto inioioinm m^totocg r-t 



lO to 
to to 

to CD 



Ooatotoio ^cotooi^ 

t^OUilOCO E*-OC0K> 
CO 5*<aiCgcOCD OlOrH 

01 • * • • * • 

,~i ^ CO to W r4 t-i 



Otot^rHtO cDOscgtoco tooioegt^ cgoioritA 
cgpcjtoto c-iooj^Q egt^l-^oro t^SSS* 



eg t^ rH eg m 
in in CO to (O 



in u3 in lO m 



- rH m OJ o 

' ^ to eg eg r-t 



'^ C^ -^ 0> t~ -^ t^ Tt* ff to 

U3 rHtDCOCO^ t^COCDeO 

lo egcOrH^i'to cn'J'rH 

OJ • • • * * 
r-* ^ to to eg rH 



i-i OJ 

O to 



O to OJ eg eg 
Q eg eg ^ t^ 

^ rH eg m eg 



CO OJ m to CO 
to ^ eg rH CO 
f- O t^ ^ CO 



'^ rH to <j> eg 

O 'i* eg c~) Q 
■* (t) to CO 5 



op •* rH O ' 

^r eg eg ii5 

rH to eg 



mtotomto mtomiO'* ■■^eotocgrH r^ 



O O C^ CO ^ 
O O CNj o> t^ CJ 

\0 O to OJ rH ^ 

o> * • • * • 
,-t Ti< CO eg CM rH 



e^ f'J to eg to 
CO to ^ to 

<J> -^ r^ 






to Oi 
to t- 

■^ o 



■<*< to O to rH 

r-t eg 5i in e^ 
c«- eg m eg c^ 



t- to eo t^ r^ 

CO CO Q OJ C^ 

O t^ in C7> lo 



O eg ^ eg <o 

C-- ^ OJ ^ eg 
O to OJ eg to 



eg t^ e^ I 
CO eg CO 

O m rH 



incoinioto toiniO'*'^ ^^eocgcgrH rn 



a 

€> 

U 



to r-l 

f-t eO 



^ojcgcooj cncocoojto 
iA lOrHtot-cg Nt-toeg 

^ OJ^COOJ-* COtOrH 



4^ O) 



BO to eg rH rH 



in c*. to rH cn 

rH to in CO o> 

03 m eg t^ o 



OJ o to CM to 
eg t- CO c7> »o 
00 « o to eg 



rHtoto-^jieo tnootOrHto 
c-cot-cgto *-i ^ t^^ 
CDcginou> o^rH 



ininiomto mmm'*^ eotoegegrn 



o to 
e- O 
eg c4 



3 o* 



lOrHX-tOrH ^OJCgCDf- 

lOrHCTJtJjt- cMhOegcg 
r-otococM t^cor-t 
« * « » * 

to to OJ rH rH 





^a 


XJ 


CO to 


C 




:3 


in to 




CO 


u 




o 




<iH 





c^co^toin toegocjjcD -^ c^i ^ r^ at 

CO <0 Oi iO 0> ^t-OtO--* OtOlOrHOJ 

rHcge^rHCO tOrHcotOQ iocDtoa»eg 

ininiotoin ininTj«Ti«^ cocgcgrHrn 



!m to CM rH 
rH m <«• rH 



eg (O 

Oi r-t 

xa o 







o 


■* oj ■<*« OJ 'a* 


OJ -Q* 


en -^i* 


m in CO to c^ 


t- CO 


<D (3i -« 


1 1 1 1 1 


1 1 


1 1 


O lO o >o o 


in o 


lO O lO 


to lO to to c^ 


e^ CO 


CD C3J OJ 



'9* OJ ■* 
^ a» rH rH eg 



OJ ■* C» -^ tJj 

eg to to ^ ^ 

III! 



t~\ r-{ a CM to to ■ 



^ en ^ o> ^ 

m to to to c- 

I I 1 I J 

O to O lO O 

in m to CO c- 



Oft ^ OJ ^ 

t^ CD oo 0> •» 

> J < > 

m o to o to 

C^ 00 00 0> OJ 



7i^ 



National Nffiovrees Planning Board 



O C^ <H CM ,H 

CO rH to CSI to 

c^ i£i to e^ a> 

•^ ^ ^ ^ tJ* 



Oi ot <n t^ <o 

'Jl ^ ^ ^ tjt 



o> CO ^- cj to 
a> lO o to t»- 
o> t** <D o to 



<0 -^i CM CM <0 

^ lO o» <o 
r- CO CM 



^ ^ to CO CM rH 



OCOC^JtOIQ tOr-lCOtOtf) 

OQOCaOtN ^lO<4>OCM 



(O «) t^ CO o» 

« » • • * 

'J" ■* ^ M* -<*• 



CM eg O CO r-H 

O o> lO t- tr> 

O CD CO en i-( 

lO -* ->** -* lO 



O O (O CM CO 
U? >-H O <0 U> 
O CM « to to 



O O CM ■* IXi 
.-* CO to lO 
to t*- CM 



0)C-(Of-»0 P^O*0tD*0 

tOCMOtOtO t^OOiOOiO 



lO ^ to to CM ,-H 



■* ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 'J' 



■^ CQ V> t^ 0> 

e^ ■* CO ^ CM 

lO C>- 00 o o 

^ rf ^ in \o 



•* lO -* •* ^ 

CM OJ ■«*' <0 CM 

0> CD O CM CM 

^ ^ lO lO lO 



CO U) O) u> o> 



^ C» O O) lO 
O (7> «0 ^ 
U3 to CM 



00 to 

CO (O 



I so to to CM ,-t 



ECO 07 OD (D 
o "^ t- a 
u> CO f- F- 



lO r* •* rH **• 

O 00 ■* CO 00 

t- <0 CO O O 

■^ -"^ -* lO irt 



^ '^ CM rH ,H 

lO '(7> eO U3 lO 

•* CO O O o> 

<P ^ lO U> ^ 



t- r-* ^ O »^ 
CM en to to CM 
0> O *0 to CO 

« * * ■ * 
^ lO lO U3 ^ 



SCM lO ** CO 
Oi r-i r-t Oi 
CM to r-« 04 CM 

tt « » * * « 

^ ■«* ■* to CM rH 



OO to C^ U3 ■ 
•* rH O ^ 
CO (O CM 



tn ¥> tji f'i fo *ootoo>t** 

lCtOrD'-«M iHCOtOiAr-l 

CM«>t-COe- t-OO^rHlO 



«> O UD to lO 

a> ^ to r- to 

lO O O 0> Ok 

^ lO lO ^ ^ 



to lo (o t- <n 

CM 00 O (H *^ 

rH lO ^ N to 

lO lO to ^ ^ 



eO C* »0 to O 

CO lO o> o to 

«) to »* o o 

V^ (O «0 CM .rH 



lO CO 

m o 



oiACM^to o^-•-««^-^ 

IOt-0>t*t^ a>i-«CMiOlQ 



lO IC 0> CO to 
eO C^ (D t^ lO 

^- o o> o> iH 

* * « ft te 
^ lO "i* "^ IQ 



eO (O ^ CO CO 

CM lO 00 to CM 

^ *J( t* ^ ^ 

lO lO -^ ^ **• 



Q 03 op M t~ 
^ O ^ Oi O 


lO w O ■* M 
to rH t- !0 


g 


« cvj U3 U) CO 


O lO r^ 


t- 



t- o 

o >-* 



cMioioion otont-t- 
tocot^e^oa cMCMtoeot"- 



■«*■<# CO CM r-r fH 



■* ^ ^ ^ ■«*> 



to lO ^ ^ ^ 



0> CO lO CM t^ 

CO o> en CO lO 

t- O at r-H ■* 

TjT ^#( ^ lo lo 



c- to ^ O lO 

oi CO to to ,-t 

■^ CO lO O) o 

m ^ Ti< ^ lo 



■* ro •* to 00 

h- x^ CO to CM 

^ en »H to to 

-^ to to 00 rH 



(© ^ t- CM to 
CO lO •^t lO 
C» •* rH 



ato>ioo<v t*i— te*-cMto 

lOiOtDiOCM COr-CM^iO 

tOe^t*0>CM CMCO^COO 





CO lo r-t to to 


rH (O t- U> CM 

K CO o ca ^ 


tn 


Ok O O CD to 


to 


to O PJ * u> 


CO lo o rt to 


o 


ft » « * « 


ft ft ft ft ft 


i-t 


<4* U3 to lO to 


^ ■<*' lO lO ■* 



O en CO OS to 

o ■* Cft w O 

CM lO t^ rH iO 

^ to CM CM ^ 



CM C^J 
(O O 
O r^ 



to Ok CM Ok ^ 
OS to to ■* »H 
•* t- 0> CM to 

ft ft ft ft ft 
^ ^ ^ lO lO 



CM lO A C\< to 

O to cn to CM 

C*« ^ CO I-) CO 

-^ <^ Tj> to ^ 



to ,— t 00 lO *C) 

O r-4 O to O 

^- CM lo lo Ok 

-* lO lO to ■* 



CM Tj* rH r-t t*- 

CM to r-( lO to 

to O CM t^ to 

■* lO lO -* ^ 



rH iH to iH t- 
Ol to CM t^ to 

t- ^ to Ok to 

ft ft ft ft ft 
to CO CM r-4 i-H 



t- CO C^ to CM 
to lO CM CM 

c^ to ^ 



^ Ok ^ C^ CO 

2 CO CD lO CM 
Ok CM lo ^- 

ft * ft ft ft 
■«< ^ to to '<• 



U) ^ to to c^ 

O* ^ 0» O CM 

'^ Ok rH 0> to 

ft ft ft ft ft 

■^ <a« lo -«*• ^ 



■* O O t^ Ok 
O CM Ok to to 

Ok to to <n to 

ft ft ft ft ft 
^ lO lO -^ <^ 



Cvl to to o> to 

,H t^ to t- in 

rH CM CO -* tJk 

lO to ^ •* to 



Ok CO to rH to 
to to *i< lO lO 
to <0 to t^ rH 



o o <-« < 
cn ^ ^ I 

to to iH 



to CM n Ob to 

Ok e* 12 ^ M 

CO CM « r* to 

^ to *0 ■<3< -^p 



cn CM Ok to o 

■^ to -* ■* -(J? 



en to CM CM CO 

o o to en lo 

r-l to <» to rH 

to lO <*• ■^ U3 



lO ^ ■^ 'i" CO 



.-I to o to -^ 

CD ^ cn r-t to 

O to O lO o 

to CM CM r-t W 



to to to CM CM 
to cn CA CM 
to CM 



^ CM to CD to 
00 to to -^ rH 
Ok CO C^ lO O 



o to CO to to 
Ok CM c^ ^ a> 

CM O CO rH to 



«*t0^^lO IOtO'<l«'*<tO 



CM to 00 CO CM 

00 t^ fH Ok CO 

CM a> b- ,-4 to 

lO ■^ Tjt to lO 



CO f- CO 'J' o 

lO to lO to CM 

cn to ,-4 to CM 

•^ rf »*» to CO 



lO to -^J* CM r-l 



CM CM rH r-H rH 



CM iO ^ Ok CM 
t- to Ok rH 
to CM 



^ to ^ "(Ji O 

to t- CO ^ n 

O e^ lO o *o 

to ■* ^ lO to 



CM ,-t O to CM 

t^ to r-l t>- to 

O t^ CM to CM 

to ^ ^ to to 



t- ^ C^i ^ lO 

cn CO to to r-l 

(O t^ CM ^ O 

■^ ^ tO to lO 



00 O -^ CO to 
Ok to CM to CM 
CD CM r- to o 

ft ft ft * ft 

■^ ^ to to to 



CO ^ en ^ to 

(O to lO r-t t- 

tO O to to CO 

ft ft • ft 

CM CM r-t r-< 



CO Q CM t- to 
CD lO CD •-• 



^ ^ e^ to CO 

CM ^> CO (O fH 

to lO O to fH 

'^ ^ to to lO 



CM e^ ^ lo lo 

OO CO ^ to o 

e*- CM t- eo o 

•* ■^ CO to to 



■* en ■* 


en -^ cn ■* en 


^ Oi ^ 


en 'i' 


Ol ^ 


cn ^ .. 


r^ 


■g* 0» i-H rH CM 


CM to to -<*« Tj< 


to lO CO 

o to o 


CD t- 


t- CO 


CO Ok •« 


« 


1 1 1 1 1 


1 1 1 1 1 


1 1 


1 1 


1 1 


4> 


O lO O lO o 


to o to o to 

CM to CO ■* ■^J< 


to o 


to o 


to o to 


O 


•-^ (H CM 


to to CD 


<D e^ 


e- 'X) 


CD O Ok 


t-i 






^ en ^ 


at ^ Oi "0 


Ok i-< ^ CM 


CM CO CO ^ 


1 1 1 1 


1 1 1 1 


to o to o 


to O lO o 

CM CO to ^ 


•-I rt CM 



FMimatex of Future Pojiulalinii of the I'iiUkI Staie.-<, 1940-200(1 



11 



to CO CM U) to 

CO lO lO iH 00 

00 t^ Oi *0 O* 

* ^ eo eO CJ 



i-t tH m O N 

m to b- f-i »H 

CSl N ^ rH 



CM to 



U3 ^ T|t to OD 



CNJ^C^t-. ^t*c-tOlO 
r^ CM N CM C4 «M 



O o CO to kO 
to CSI O) (O O 
W M rH «H »-l 



:g;:l^'^ 



CM ^ l/> to CD 
U3 to W lO to lO 
0> Oi CM r- to rH 

0> * « «k • « 
r-l ^ -^ CO CO CO 



(O fH ^ t>- O ^ 
^ U3 CM ej> »-H C^ 
fH i-H ^ 0> 



IW^tO lO^-*tDOO '»«0(0^«) 

rH CMCMCMCgCM CMCMr-tr-f 



CO<OCMOf-4 b-eotOf-o> 
Oe^lOOOrH OCMt-CO 

^Oi-iCOO OOeO 



^ ^ rjt CO to 



^ O 



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■q« '^ -t^ to CM rH 



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lO^^OtO i-tCDCDO>CO 

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CMCMfMCMCM CMr-4i-l 



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to f- rH ^ lO 

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tO-^CMt^i-H tOt^COOJt^ 

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to O (O OJ . 

t- to ■* 

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45 



lOOrHtOCO lOCM-^rHtO OltOrHlOt- 

CM^C^m rHCMCOCMt^ (JltOOpOCM 

r-t CMCMrHrHrH CM^J'^IO'"* 



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CM ^ 



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•^ o in CO in 
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CO ^ rH 



88 



moiO'J'to totococMto j-i ^ to ts> a:> 

CMtOtO^ CDCOCMCOrH t-^rHt--CO 

r^ r^ t-i r-i t~i to ^UStOmtO 



CM ^ Ol Cf> > 
CM O to 
CM ^ 



to CO to in CT) 

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to CO O CM 
Ol E- W (O 


r-t C^ CM to CM 


t- to rH 



to CM CJ rH <-t 





CO GO 


a 


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u 





lO^tDcnrH 'J't-rHint* inooeoto 

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78 



National Tiesources Planning Board 



^ 00 <^i C^ rH 



n t~ n t- n t~ o a> i-i •->'-<■* 'S t: ?5" 



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to 
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CM CO -* * lO CM rH 



COlOrHOCM tOU><00 

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to ^ -* ■* to CM rH 



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to 

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rHCMGOiH tOCOrHOflO 

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CM to CO t 
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^ o> ^ o> ^ 

lo to CD CO r- 

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in lO (O CD c*- 



0> ^ CT> ^ 

t^ CO CO CT» -a 

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lo o in o lo 

t- OO CO 0> Oi 



rH ^ 



Eh 



Estimate^ of Future Fopnhition of tlif Cnltnl State.f, 1940 WOO 

"SSSJ'SS OQ*(Mt^ IOO>IOrHCT> Q<Ot~*C5 ^ 

_ \n m t' n to r^tooimoo oN**y»^t9 ^OrHiBto *o 

o lo ^ ID t- o « ?5 o o> ^^ •£ A f ^ -f i& % m <\i rn 



<y»OOOrH *H»HMO*-l fHrHa>flOt^ 



to a> 



79 



^OlOQQ rH-^QtO^ <COltO^O> ■<*'t0C*-O<C <D 

q>aoiov<c Qtow-TiO tococjff>(0 e^^o^oa o 

toirtr-oto ^f-toto3 (sooicot^ rncvocM o 

0>00»-irH r-lr-lrH«-lr-l rHOOOOOC*- (003r-l tO 

r-lrHrHr-|r-lrHfH*-irHr-4r-1 tO 



^1 

lO < 






QCOOQtO <OCV00r-4r-l ^tO^rH* 
^tOOOOk^ r-iCV-tOJO* r-tou)ni 

c^r-oeo^ Nr^■*oa» w^e^W) 



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lO O O} «0 Q 
tD di rH C^ to 
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^ w to 

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O o> cn en ^ 



8»- f^ pro 

t*>0 '-' IDCD 

Ok O <i<^<^ 



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lO 


<0 CM 




CTl 


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to t^ 










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80 



\aiional liemurce^ Plarniing Board 



CO to CM ^ ^ 
t^ to <-l 0> ^ 
CO lO ^ « to 

■ * «t « M 

^ m lo lo to 



t- <D (O PJ o> 



CM O to Oi C^ 
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CO ^- t" o lo 



louaiomio mio^^to 



<0 t^ ^r CD 0> 
b- tC tf> Ol 
to CM Tj« 



^ 00 

>-* o 



OO^OCMCO «MCM,-lO00 

(OtHiHCMto uaio^io^ 
^loustnio loioioioio 



CC lO -^ Q) Oi 
■<J« i-H O U3 O 
Ol '^ to (O 00 


to r^ to t~- CM 
CM O W t^ CM 
OD P- (O t- O 


00 CM r- CO to 
»Q ^ eo to o 
o> o ■* to c^ 


to 0> l-H 

to ,H ■C* 


■'S' lO li: to to 


« • * a » 
lO lO iC ID to 


» « « « * 

lo lO •^j' ■^ rt 


CM ^ 



to CM 



tO'J'OrHr-t lOtO^tOCM 

^tOtOOtO ^-tPr-«tOlO 

t^pHCM^lC lO^T^lOflO 

^lOujiOiO lOtOtOiOtO 



■^ IC m lO lO 



en lO to to r-t 
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t- to 00 rH O 



to O) to CM O 
to r^ «0 O CO 
CM C^ OD to BQ 



to lO lo to to 



iO -^ *t "^ to 



•H O W O 00 

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CM O »0 



to ^ 



^*0^^ tot-eOtOO 

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t^cM^ioio ^^too>a> 

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Q to 00 00 i>- 



ID 00 O C^ to 
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c- oc l-^ rH to 



iOlOtOiOtO tOiOCOtOtO 



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o> r-1 a> >-1 «H 



tc to to to t- 
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01(0 



to lO 

to c* 



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CM (p CO to tX) 

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lO lO iD to lO 



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CO to to O) t-H 
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1-4 CO «-( to 
to 00 to 



lC 00 

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to to ^ to (O 



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to 0» CD •* CM 

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kO to lO lO to 



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to Q r-* O <J> 
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to CD to lO to 



CM OJ to t^ lO 
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to 00 CM 



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CO to 



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to CO to r-t O* 

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lOtOlOlDtC tOtOiDtOtO 



to to »H <J> »*• 
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C^ CM f- t* CM 

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to IT rH ID to 



iOU;>lOiDt0 CO^tOlDiD 



t^ to CO to t^ 

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iD -^ to to Cv? r-i 



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to o 

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to to CM CM lO , 

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loir^ioioto toioiDu^io 



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to t^ CD BO CO 
to t^ O BO to 



to CM O f** Ol 
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tOtOlDtOtO lOkOlD-DlD 



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^ 0> 00 to ^ 

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to to CM 



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to * 


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to a» to ^ to 

to to to to U3 



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to en ^i* o ■ 

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CM -^ CM cn to 

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to 0> to to CO 

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Kstrmatex of Fvture Popvlatwii oi th- I'nited States, 1940-2000 



81 



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82 



National lie^oWrces Planning Board 



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4,674 
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5,236 


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4,681 
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4,313 
3,620 
2,890 
2,163 




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Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 



83 



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Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 85 

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^ ^ ^ lO -* 



C^lO'^'^tD CM«J«UiesJC^ 

eOCOOrHCM lOrHCMtOeO 



sj- ^ U3 (O ■* 

to to t*- o to 

lO to lO CO o> 



toco'j'-:!*^ ^lOio^Tj* -^^cocg*-* 



CM to CO 
rH lO ^ 



U3 G> 



tOlQiat«r-« t>v-OrHt«-0 

tototococn cOr-(CMtot~ 

cH^COOkO tOO»r-1lO(M 



tO^CMCOC- i-HOtO'^O 

^tOE^OO lOtOiOfOtO 

tOOi-ltOtO r-ttOC^<**t- 



t-1-tCO.-fCM O'HOOTj'eO 

iH^tO^CM (OOtDtO 

E^OtOlOt^ OlO»-( 



to -q* -^ -^ -^ 



tS> KCi ^ -^ ^ 



■<^ Tjf CO CM --I rH 



CO U3 

a> «5 



O CM CO 0» CM 

CO c^ e^ O .-t 

<* CD Oi r~* ^ 



cn o to t^ o> 

^ t^ rH U5 CM 

O) .-* to to t^ 



io 4ff to '^ ^ ^in^sj«<a« 



CMCMCMtOrH OIO'S'CM^ tOC-tOCM^ yDCOtOiHtO 
CMtDCMtOOl rHrHi-HOtO C-QlOtDC-- " 

co^toto.-i '^coiocncn cocoocmuj 






CO ■* -^ ■# lO 



lO ^ -^ ■<;*< ^ 



^ to to CM f-< 



Ol CO 

o to 



c-iOC^iCMco cn r-i ^ to -^ 

lOCOCMCOt- OtOrHftl^ 

'^ en i-t ^ Oi cMtO'fwo 

tOtO'*'^^ LO-^^^iO 



jo 



T*»CMt-lOCM rHCMCM'<J«'* .-HCMCOOOtO 

cOtOlOCMlO tOC-OlOOl CMiOfHtOt^ 

OltOtOCM^t" CpLOOSf-ilO ,-H'^C*-0^ 



eo ** -^ lO lO 



Tjt -^ "(Ji lO ^ 



^ to CM CM ,-H 



lo o ^ o I 
to cn to w 

CO to r-t 



^0>tO.-HO tocoocoto 

tocMTjfo^ oii3a),-ten 

c^.-H^oe« tOTj«oOr-tt»- 

t0^5j"iOiO ^^^lO'^ 



o oi as cn fH 

t^ to '^ CO o 
O to CM ^ Ol 



to <0 O t^ CM 
r-t lO O CO to 
to O CM t* to 



Cn^^O>r-t CMC^t^tO 

eOt-COtOCM lOlOCMCM 

t-O^OltO C-COrH 



■#'^iOiO'«}* ■^lOLO^^ eOtOCM,-i^ 



tO (O 



o to t^ to lO 

O lO rH to CM 
0> 'T O CM C*- 



tO'^iOiOrJ* 'i'^io^J^'^^ 



CM Q cn CO tJ> 

Oi ^ 00 oi o 

^ 0> r-t CO lO 



COCMtDuOlO COOOr-t'* 

cntOr-*coio ot^wt-JO 

tOCMiOcntO (-ICMCD'<3'a> 



CM,-lO>tOCp COCDc-ICMCM 

COrHCMCO^ OOeOr-HCM 

tOCOtOE^rH tOtOr-( 



^lOio^-* lOtn^^io 



I CM CM rH (-1 



o o 



OOtO^Of-i OtOCO'J'CO 

OCMCD^CM C^-^tOO^ 

cMoc^^^-u5 ocMcntoo 

rr lo it) T '^ •^tO'^'^^ 



to O »-l r-l ■* 
lO to to 0> lO 

en lO o> to f-i 



ro o '* to o> 
CM o to to o 
to oi \n o '^ 



<n c^ ^ cn r-< 

■* to CO O lO 

o to o to o 



^lO^J^'^iO lO^'i*-#CO EOCMCMrHi-t 



in to to CM CM 

lo en oi CM 

to CM 






rMtotom^ a>-<i«^fMo 

lOcnto-^rH cocM^-Tiien 

E^CMC*-tOO CMOtO^lO 

•^lO^'^'iO lOiO-^^tO 



lOlOOOE*-r-t OOtOt-^tO 

iHt«-i-«(noo lotoiotOr-) 

CMCnC^rHtO OltOr-ttOCM 



rO CM to r^ O 

to to .-( CO o 
CO CO 00 CO o 



lO ^ ^ U3 lO 



^ V ^ to to 



CM CM ^ r-l rH 



CM rt ^ o> « 


?. 


d 


(O ■* 


i>- lo en i-( 


o 


03 -« 


lO CM 


* 


^ 


lO 00 






4^ 


« « 




<o 


« 


lO «3 



gc-tO'j'cM c^cor-ic^m 
^-lOOtO OC^CMtOCM 

lO^TpiOiO lO'#'<3«eOcO 






<ntototOr-t cntocMiocM 

tO^*CM■^0 tOCMC-cOO 



C0^O>^tO tOOCMC^ 

tOlOlOr-tC*- GOLOOOr-a 

lO O to to CO ^ CM 



5^^lOlOlO '^'^tOeOlO CMCM<-liH 



to 

lO 



o t- 

U3 CO 



i 



^^C^tOX CMt-^ififO 

CMC^tOtOcH OOtO^tOO 

lOlOOtOrH t-CMt-tOO 

• *••» •■•••^ 

'*^iOioio ^^toeoio 



^ cn *i< 

■* cn rH .H CM 

I I I I I 

O lO O lO o 



Oi ^ Oi ^ Oi "S'O^Oi^ Oi^O>^ i-i 

CMtOtO^^ lOlOtOtOt^ t^oocoo>4J ti 

I I I I t I I I I I I I I I -p 

mo*nQi'5 oiooioo loomoto o 

cMrtto^"*" lOiototoE-- t^oooocncn e-« 



< 



Oi ^ <j) ^ at 

CM to CO ^ ^ 



■^ cn -^ 
^ en r-< ,-1 CM 
I I I I I 

O lO O lO o — 

r-t t-i CM CM CO CO 



Estimates of Future Population of the Vnited States, 1940-2000 



89 



C\J (O OJ 00 CO 

O to Ol 00 c^ 

lO m t^ i-i CO 

■<i* •** to CJ C\J 



o cri p-i CO ^ 

t^ CO CO O rH 

r^ .-( ■* rH 



to lo O t^ eg 

Q rH lO t- O 
'T lO lO u> <5 



to 00 c- <o to 
to lo u) oj a> 

to CD to to lO 



OW'^OllO rHCO-<J*mo r-* 

oo^touio o^-^i* a> 

"^ -^ to to to Cvj^ CO 



(M to 



^^HWr^CO l£> CD ^ in to 

^iciototo tototototo 



tOOtOWm CD(Ob-tDO> 

CMeOrS'<J*0 ^OtDCO 

too>ot^o> cnoeo 

^ CO •* to CJ ^ rH 



■*lOtOtDtO tPtoSSS 



loeu-^oeo ojcoi— lOco 

eotoioc^eo '^•coeoco 

rHcocjint^ ^•ooto 
• • • » • » 

^ ^ ^ fO CJ ^ 



O 00 



^OOCNJCOO tOri*tOa5C^ 

2 S ^'S S d Oi CO W N O 

^tototot* toto^«c^to 



COtOOlOOtO OitOtOOt^ 

(^ iOtOOtO'*' U3C0EO 



flO to 
to Oi 
to C7) 






•^ ^ •*» to Csi ^ 






r-J,-lCCO^ OOoototo 

■^<*NC--tO 0>lOC\Jii5 

tOrH^tOO* CvJtOCy 

,<*• Tj< to W r-4 rH 



OOS^OOOO 0>rH'**Ot^ 

toi-t-t>.S ggggg 



ocootoioo -=f "^ ^ oi ta 

kXi ,-i to r-* r-i eOlOO*** 

eOOO^CO rHiON 

^ ^^ to cvT^ ^ 



a> CM 
o to 
o o 



tOC--t*-cOOO C^tOtOlOtjl 



^ to to lO o 

I— 4 C7> ^ CV Ol 

o r-j c^ w u5 

:o ;o CJ cXrH 



lO -^ CO fH 
to OJ OO ■=i< 
0> ^ tH 



'^ to 

"-i o 



CO t-- CO rH Oi 

•-t eo o ^ to 

^ C^ CO CO t^ 



^ Q lO 0> to 
to to CO CO ■^ 

to to to ^ ^ 



Wt- to ^ ^ 

^ LO LO to 

0? ■* ^ 



lO CM C\) ,H •-« 



CO 03 

^ s 

to 



mcococ-to toSSSS 



O CO O CM W 

o> c^ w eo 

t^ CO <-t 



to CM CM r-t rH 



■a 



o •* 

CO r-, 

O t- 






10 N pH U3 t^ 

a> r^ en m (-( 

CO ^ 00 ^ »-< 

^ « » ■• « 

CJ CM rH r-l i-l 



O to lO 00 to 


CM 


c 


■^ h- 


to »H C-J CM 


Oi 


o 


CO Hi 


to to -H 


ta 


•H 


to Ui 




« 


■P 


» * 




to 


d 


lO (O 




U3 


t. 


03 



t>e-tototD uoir>^!aw 



to •* 0> CM m 
■^ lO 00 C^ CO 

irj O to to en 



<i* 0> ^ Oi '* 

lO ifj to to >- 

I I I I I 

O to O lO o 

U9 lO to to t- 



rH to 47) C^ lO 
"^ O O CO 

LO to rH 



»4 

> 
_ o 

o> -^ Ol ■^ 
C^ CO CO o> <« 

I I I I 

lO O U3 O U3 
C^ CO CO C71 (7> 



a> w 


4A 


r-l U3 


^ 


CO (0 


a 




» 


* n 




lO 


a 




h 




O 




.£> 



00 « 
ID ^ 



fl 



loct-cfttoe-. lOoiOiNS 



•* o> ■* 

^ C> rH i-i CM 

I I I I I 

O 40 o lO o 

i-H rH CM 



o> ^ o> ^ C> 
CM lO to ^ ^ 
I I I I I 

"> O lO O lO 
CM to to ^ ^ 



90 



National Resources Plannmg Board 



o>toa><oo> cNjcocj 

lO U9 to CM f-H )-4 



O 



2 o 



J Q «> <-t 
> ^ (O o> 



^OirHtOQ ^ *0 V> <0 Oi 

«lOIOlOU9 to f£> <0 U> <0 COlO<^C>JCJ 



(O -^ to N rH ^ 



CM a> 

to CM 



«>r-*fHOU3 tOOiCptOcO tOtOCOOCM 

tO'fl'e^OtO <D(0^tOlO COCT>(OOCO 

f^LOm^tO COtO(0<OCO <0'<^tOCOCM 



CQCOtOCOCO 'fl'tOlOtOi-t 

■^i-l'^lOtO OU5CM 

m ^ to CM iH (-1 



CO 3} 
lO CM 



t-cou5mto ■^(Ocotoo 
^lOcotoco io to <o <o v> 



CO o o> w o> 

C*- CM CM CM tn 
^ ^ to CM r^ 






^ CO O lO to 
0> O to CO Oi 

■^ to to «o to 



CM to CM O to 

00 e^ CM to r^ 

to to t- t- to 



i><4M^«MV^>4^ CMt^^C^CM 

00^-CMeOr^ O'^t^co^ 
._ ._ ^ ^ .- -( -^ to CM CM 



CO Q CO ft ^ Oj^CM 

■* ^ CM CM ,H 



Ii3 O 
CM C«J 
to tA 



^ CM rH E- lO 

CM lo a> o o> 

lO -JD to t- to 



tOOitOOi rHO>t>-<3<tO 

[ ^ lO if> ^ i-t -^ lO t> CO 

't*-C^tOin lO^tOCMrH 



^* OS O 03 C-- 
tO «# CO C3l ^ 
<< to CM rH n^ 



^- to OJ lO 



tOtO'^i'tOtn r-ICMOlCNiO •«*»COCMC^t^ 

tOOirHOO tOCOt-COtO rHCM^tOCO 

lOtDC^t^t- t--t*tomtO lO-^tOCMf-H 



C^ CM <;}< rH ■* 

o '^ lo o to 

^ to CM CM rH 



OlrHfHf-tt- OOOOltO 



p-1 rH lO to to 

cTi I— I o ^ m 

<# -^ CM CM r-> 



f-H 



oiOcototo tocotcto 

Oli-IIOCOCM l>-eo^ 

to to CM r^ ^ 



t^ r-l 

to Oi 



C0Tj*^OlC- a>lOOOi-t CMtOCMCMOl 

. .*, -, . ^CMCMO^ t-tOOOtO 

t^tOtOtOU) <^tOeOCMrH 



rH rH CM CO ^ 
to C^ t- C^ CO 



■* t^ ■^ CM to 
to 1-1 to t- ,-( 
to to CM ^ rH 



t* (D C- CM to 
-«-l<M (7) to to 



COpC^C-rH OU3<MOO 

•^^CMt-CM (HtOtOCOCM 

tOtOeOlOLO ^COCM,-f<H 



cMcooojcM r-i n m n 

C^CDCMlOO fO -^ r-l 

CO CM CM r^ rH 



^ CO 



lO^QWlO CMOCMlOOl 

tOtOSlO-^ Tf«tOCMrH 



Q r-< ^ Ol ^ 
^ ^- O eO 0> 
to CM CM r-( 



to CM rH CM 
t- W rH 



cMtocooi^ c^^a>to 

CM lO f- CM i-l lO CM 
to CM rl .H rH 



u 


t^J to 


■n 


« t 




CO •* 


■H 


* 


j: 


C- 


o 




V4 




o 




c 




o 




•H 


to »H 


■P 


to w 



i-ttOlOO'* COtOtOt^CO COCM^CJ)*-! 

<J»^U3C^C^ tOCMCOCOtO tOC^a)CMO> 

tDOQt-tOtO tDtOlO^^ eOC>J(-(r-t 



ocooof- coO'i'y^^ t^tooooio 

.•OU>t--OJC0 ^i-HfHOO) rHtOtO^tH 

t-C^tOtOCO tOtOlOlOtO cOCMrHrHr-l 



rH <H lO 0» OO 

O CM to lO CO 
to CM rt ^ 



CM O 0> to CM 



2 § 



DO t^ 

t- (O 



cn«-40toc7> tfioiC^coto (Ototpcoi 
mo500«> eocotocMin c^o>^»*i 

tOtOt-t-tO tOlOlO^cO CM.-*^-^ 





CO 






-e 




CD GO 


1 

o 





^ o» ^ 

^ 0» i-H r-l CM 

I I I I I 

O lO Q J3 O 

iH i-t CM 



0> ^ O) 'J" o» 
CsJ to CO ^ s*i 
I I I I I 



^ o> ^ o> ^ 
lO lO to to f^ 



Kstimates of Future Population of the rnlteil States, 1940-2000 91 



o 
o 
o 



) to 03 t* W 00 to t- 

< OO ^ .-H lO rH fi 



«0 CD C^ 

to U3 C-- 



0>Wi-t»-lCM 0> CO-^ 

O to W <-H CD in (O 

•-< to to c— 



CO "?* to o to »-* 

OJ U3 N ^ t>- 



"5 C> -* lO to CO CJ -^ ^v CD 

£ ^ CO^'CVJrH O WO 

•^ ^ c- as 



O i-H O^ 0> CM 

t- -^ eg 



CO li3 

o to 

CO t- 



•* CD 

li? CO 

00 to 



§ o« 



O CO C-- CT> 

w * t, - 

u to o to 

s. ^, '^ 

•O > ID 

O -P 

u p>^ai'4* ,-tu) ^ 

o f*cDC0Oi-B at S-^oi 

r-t 1141 +JT-JI+J 

O lOOWOiO 0T3O0 

O C^COCOOlOiEH-j* t-« 



92 



National HesourceH Planning Board 



o 

8 



O t* tH CO lO 

^- CO "i* ^- o 

e* <-t to ^ Oi 



* « * • « « « 

O o a> c»- to ^ CM 



o to 

^ lO 

to u» 



00 CO CD U) to 
to CM N lO ^ 

ot •9> to (r> r-t 



0> CO W OJ ^ 

tr CO <o i-i CM 
^ to c^ a> o 



CMcOeoto^ -s'^^'i'iC 



fO Cft r-t .-, O 

O o> to ■^ I 



to ^- c^ CO CO 



wi^r.-... lOtOCbOO tOtOCMtOCM 

CMOlOrHCO CM^U)r-4i-( CS«tACMt^^ 

----- i>%%««t «*«^« », 

iOia>0<-» iHOlCOt^CO '^J'CM 



a> en to CO CM 

r> 00 pH 0> CM 



^ w t- to c- 

to to to to o 

rH to (D .H lO 

cO CO CO ■'3' tj- 



'3' O O *0 to 

CM ^ Ol to CM 

t^ CO CO rH to 

■* -^ rf* lo in 



CM CM m oi to 
CO c^ '-0 to r 
to lO < 



:s 



03 rH to CM CM 
O* 0> to CM *# 
^ ti; CNj KJ to 



coioc^cnt^ oocotoot-* 

OrMrH^tO ^OlOOOCM 

•-tOOr-lO 0>0t^r-t 



toc*-cococF) (7i Oi o r-i i-i ooicntrto eoc\i 



OD CO to O) ■(*• 
lO t* C^ CM ID 

eo oc '-■ ^'^ c^ 

eo to ^* -^ 'J' 



CC CM ^ ^ O 

^ ^ *-t lO Ol 

CO 0> C\i C^ QO 

^ •!** lO IC to 



PJt-00<*'U3 tOCOt-t--^ 



O ^ CM O C\J 
to CO to to to 
lO CO ^ to c^ 



UJ ^ to o o» 

CM lO 0> C*- <H 

to 00 to «-< 



^-aOOOOiO> CDO»-irHO Ot Qi <J> t^ lO 



CM to ^ CC O 

flO CO "^ t^ CO 

XT) r-i io >• a> 

to -4* ^ '*' ^ 



»H C^ CO P^ li^ 
CD to CO CM t^ 
a> CM 00 O CM 
* * « « * 
•<* lO U> to lO 



COOlf-f-ttO ^■>^'t*'00O 

DC0>C^OCM .— iCn-^lOiO 

lOCDtOtOCO _u.«— « 

% tt * « • 
C* (O 0> C7> 0> 



CO lO CM to to 

■^ c^ en 1-1 o> 



OO CM 0» V to 



.— icn-^ioio -^c^cni-icn -^r-tioiCf-t 

■<*<U30<0(» VtOCOeOCM tOb-tOr-t 

0<-tc-ooo> oocot^in to,H 



CO 

o 



CM O 
CM fi 



O <-i ^ O lO 
C^ lO en O rH 
CO lO C^ O) o 
« «k • «t • 
to ^ -ej* 'c^ lO 



O eO CO lO O 

(H O r-l Ol Ul 

to 0> rH to 0» 

lo m to in ^ 



CM CM CM CM to 
to Oi to t- CD 
CM to to CO ^ 



) rl lA rH M 
1 b- r^ ~ ~ 



. . lO o 

CO O 00 



OS o> en lo «D t- ^ < 
<D u> 03 to en o> to < 
a> t^ •* t^ CO o to * 



to ^ 

to en 

en rt 



COOitnOiO r-(CMOOO ocncDto^ 



CO CM CM CM QO 
1-1 O CM ^ ^ 

CM CD en o eo 

« a> « «k « 

^ 'i* Tj* in lo 



to CO to lO CM 

m GO CD to CM 

en f-H -c* o ■^ 

LO U> kO iO lO 



CM CO to CO to 
CM ^ O to to 
C* to O) lO c^ 



CM liD to to to 
C*- to O CM 'J' 
CM O) CM O to 



to t- r-4 en to 
CM ^ to CO to 
CO to 00 CM lO 



r-t CM CO O ^ 
to 0> rH CM rH 
O •* m rM 



% 

t* 



in t* 



CDOlOlOiH CMOOi-trH OCnt^tO** 



C^ CM ,H 0> CO 

'^ to to c^ en 

•^ en o to oj 

■<*• ^ in m in 



■=? O r-l O .H 

•^ in in m to 
cs; in r-t lO to 

» « • • * 

to in in iO in 



4» -r^ 

•H 4^ 



to CO t^ CM CO 

to cj c- to tc 
a: o) m CO to 



to •iT- to O ^ 

to CM O 0> Oi 
O to CM lO to 



to CO to in <* 

O CO t- CO ■^ 
0> to CM C- to 



CO r-i (7) to CM 
O 0> to rH rH 
t- CM ■* ,-( 



9 

o 



CO en o r-i CM 



■— I O iH •-( O 



en CO t^ in ^ 



CM O 

* m 

en en 



^ lo in to to 



^ t^ O en m 

O i-t lO to o 

to CM to t* eg 

in in m in m 



o - c 
•H >> at 

-p +> » 
•J -H :3 

<-* .-H O 

Gi-P Eh 



t^ to o <n o 

CM en CO to CM 

CM in OD ^ rH 



to ^ t- lO to 
CM ^ CO to OO 

^ to c^ en CM 



iH CO t" O Ol 

CO m in lo t-- 
i-i o t^ m Oi 



^ CO 00 o> o 
^ to ^ OJ .H 
to rH ^ 



o»o» 

O>i0 



CM CM CM t- CM 
O »-• to to lO 

^- ^ o to to 



iH t- en o «5 
e^ CM c* ^ O 

CM t- 00 to o 



O O <-( CM nH 



O r^ rH O O 



en (D to in to 



"*intotoin LCioininm 



II 



to lO ^ to ^ 
to o en en .H 
CO en ^ ^ lo 



Oj ^ to CM o 

m ■^ to ^ to 
^ oi f-i in in 



t^ to CO ^ c^ 

o rH o en ■* 
to m in o ^ 



I— I o in ^ 01 

CM rH CO 00 
rH f-4 to 



to CM 



to to CT> in CM 

CM c- to en CM 
O O CO to CO 



r-l lO Q O rH 

en to in J3 en 
e^ en ^ r-« to 



O: rM CM ^ o 



rJ ^ r-i o en 



00 c- to lO to 



lototoinin inminLO^ 



o «H 
Xi -H 

o 



^ CM CM ^ en 
en CM m en to 

O in CM in in 



«-4 en in rH lO 
00 en in to o 

O CM t* CO o 



^ 00 oo oi en 

to to CD r-l *-H 
O CM <n ^ rH 



to Ol Q < 
^ lO W I 

o en to 



rH CM rt o M 



CM r^ o en en 



CO t^ lO ^ to 



CM C) 



CO CO 

9.'* 

OrH 



CO in to t^ to 

<*" CD CM to in 
to to C- to CO 



^ CO to ^ tj* 

O in CM 00 ^ 



intoininm toinm^'^ 



^ o ->** O .-I 
00 CO in C-- rH 

to CM to to CM 

^ •> « « « 

^ P-l O !-• CM 



»}< CO CO to CM 

^ to in o t- 
V <n o to ^ 

• « « * K 

i-H o o <n 00 



in in OS CM CM 

CM o o o to 

CO c^ CM o en 

t^ to lO ^ CM 



to to 01 o «> 
^ CM O t«- 
f- CD to 



en to 

to ,H 

to to 



CM to ,-( OJ OJ 

■* ■* Q O .-H 

CTJ C^ V* O t-H 

in in tn in to 



tn CO t^ o to 

fH to to .-H CO 

to to tn to CM 

in in ^ ^ ■^ 



J3 



CM in to •* CO 

^ CO ^ to CD 

in to c^ to tn 

•« « « • * 

O O rH CV rH 



^ CM in CO in 

<n •* ^ 00 in 

O CM in t^ CM 
* tt « «k « 

<-* O en 00 CO 



C- ■«*« CO t^ O 

m tj* CM o t- 
CM CO t^ CO in 



•* ^ C* O 00 

<D e^ t- e^ rH 
in e^ CM 



f- m ^ CO CM n-\ 



in CM 


-H 


m en CM o CM 


t-i O ^ Q> ^ 


o to 




in rH ii3 CO tn 


in t- •* rH O 


•<*< U3 




CO ■*)< (J) rH to 


-^ O t- ^ CM 


* • 




*«««■> 




rH CM 
r-t to 


P4 


in to in to in 


in in ■<*' ■^ «*' 



s. 



<* a» -^ 

^ tn r-i r4 CM 
I I I I I 

O ID O U3 O 
rH rH CM 



(T» '^ Oi ^ Qi 

CM «0 to ^ lj« 

I I I I I 

tn Q in o lo 

CM V3 to ^ ^ 



^ <n •«• <n ^ 

lO ID to to t^ 

I 1 I I r 

O m o in o 

to m to to c<- 



Oi -^ O) ^ 

t^ oo 00 en ^ 

I I f r 

to o tn o in 

t- CO CO o> oj 



I -p 
o o 



^ Oi -^ <T> ■^ (Jt -^ Oi 

^enrHrHCM CMtOtO^«3* 

I I I I I I I I I I 

omoino inomoto 

rHrHCM CMtOtO^^ 



Estimates of Future Population of the Unite'} States, 1940-2000 



93 



O 
O 

O 



CM CO CO CO CO 

W N OJ O) to 

^ to oj eo cc 

iC lO ^ tO cvj 



m ui lo 'J* c^ 
c\j w >5 ^• 
o> oj to 



to 



to 
to 



OC^CO«*CQ ^CDQOJ^ inioojoto 

LOtc<paoco o>cnwu'joo Ncowcot- 

CO e\j ^ to O) -- ■- — — -- -_ _ . _- _. 

CM BO to f J ro 



OJ <4< to (O CO 



to « ^ to N 

lo in ^ to to 



m f* c^ 01 to 

C^ to CM ^ "^ 

to c^ o ^ o> 



OO CM O 0> t- 
t- CO rH to 

e^ CO ?^ 



^ to 
t*< oi 



0> t^ ^ CO to 
to <D en C- rH 

o ■* to o> to 



CO O CD 05 to 
CM CM O to f- 
U3 to C-- O) ■^ 



lO "* -^ CO CM ,-t 



CM •<** e^ -^ t- 

CJ> Oi o> ^' t^ 

lO t- f-H O ^ 



tofjtoto^ ^^^t*<u5 m^^'Tto 



,-( to t^ to CO 

CO c^ o i^ O 

O ^ '^ 00 e- 

ifi -^ ■^ CO CM 



X LO t^ ^ to 
CO i-H CO to 

to CO CM 



to o 



lO 00 0> rH W 

CM oi CO to U> 
Cm to a> to lO 



-. i-^ ., C- CM O to CO 

IO-^CMSu:) CM^rHOlCVJ 

^De^OlO^* oiotocMio 



O en lA iH ' 
- " 1 fr- 



rtcoto^tf ^TjtiDiom m*3*'*'s'to 



C-r-CJUJr-t OtDCOCMtO 

CDC3>tO'<i*C0 tOlOCDtO 

t-coioiou; uat^cM 

^ ^ ^ to CM (-H 



CO CO 



rH-e'CMOtO CMOOlCVCM tOC^tOrHQ 

^C^-^t^t^ OOt^fJtOt^ COCDOr-tCO 

•^CntOlfitO C^OtOCOrH c^cncor-i^ 



to Vi '^ ■^ ^ 



^ lO lO lO U3 



'^ ^ ^ ^ lO 



en o to **• c- 

iH CD O CO CO 
CM O W to to 



to to O CO tO 
^ O to lO 
'i' C^ CM 



UO U> •<*< W CM .-I 



0> CM 

o o 

CM Oi 



QDCpeOtOtn LOf-)tO(QO 

r-«'<ir000>O OOCMtOO 

P-COiO(OC0 )-4tOO>CMO) 

tO'i*'*'^-* U5iOLOlf5-<i^ 



CO to to CM O 

CM a> CO lO rH 

CM CM (o o: en 

lO lO «* to CM 



<0 to -^ CM ^ 

rH CO .H to rH 

^ to O r-l CM 

in * -^ to CM 



CM to CO r-1 lO 

lo CO -^ in 

CO to CM 



o> en o o m 

^ CO rH to to 
O in fc^ 00 r-M 

^ * -^ ^ in 



tOtOCMC-0> CMtOmCM'J' 

tOQDcocor- mc-coooo 

c*-o>cooito mo'^'toto 

iO isj iSi ■^ iTj min-^cocM 



CO .-H O en O 

0> CO CM O f^ 

03 ^ c- en o 



in CM CO to m 

^ -Kit r^ sti 
to to CM 



in o 
to to 

CO t* 



■* 'J* to CM CM r-t 



intomenco com'*<inin ^tOrno'O 

C-,-HT*<iOtp CMCOlOt-^ CMtOr-llOtO 

CMt-cOrHC*- OtOO'^t^ EOCOrHtO'^J* 



^' ^ ^ lo in 



toininmin m^jitj^cocM 



^ eo in to ic 

a> ;0 to CM rH 

t- rH *# t- O 

^ ^ to CM CM 



<n rH CO ^ <** ,-i 

CM to en ■^ rH 

W in r-t O 



^ CM to t^ CO 

t7> m c^ a> to 

to CO rH l>- O 



OlC^COrHC^ CMO>COr-ICn 

CMOmCMcO rHtOOeOCM 

^rHinCO-^ rH^COOtO 



'»*'*ininto ininioinm lo^cococm 



m to CM to m 

c^ o in m CO 

^ en CM to CO 

^ to to CM rH t-i 



• qtt to en 

■ O CO CO 



in to 



m^cocMco CMiooDioa) 

CMCOrHOtO inrHOOlt- 

inrHOOrH^ rHtOUiincM 



in in in m Tjf 
O m o en ij> 

t* rH in CO o 



^mmtoio mmmm^ ^<^tocMcM 



•^ r^ -^ a> t^ ■^c^'^^eo 

rHOOCOCO^ t^cotoio 

CMtOrH'J'tD Cn^rH 

» • • * • 
^ CO CO CM rH 



CO ^ 

in ^ 

^ 00 

in ea 



S?:'^^^" COOltOCMO tOCMC7>LnO 

^CMCJOO> tOt^COOJt- CncOrHOO 

CCCDrHinrH tOtDtOlOcO tocototoco 

•••*» •*••»• «■.••.« 

'^intoinm mmmm^ ^--^jtocMrn 



eno>t*0D-* cvtcMtocato 

Oi f-i <n t- (Ti eoto^eo 

Oi to en r-t -^ CJi^rH 

CO CO CM CM rH 



JO 



CM CM 
CO CM 



SE^SS^*^ r-jCMajt--^ mcocM-oin 

2!^f!:iS^r< 'J'CpopCOtO IDIOO>^CM 

^rHincMt^ oc^'Tcnin otoocMco 

*•*•• •••••> «*•»«« 

intoinmin ^ ui m rt* -^ -^cocMCMrH 



^cncMcoen oocotocnco 

lOrHCOC^CM eM^-(OCM 

oi-^toen^ ootOrH 

B k « * « 

CO to CM rH rH 



in « 



^ -..._. 0>OtDCMtD 

.'lOmtoeT* cMt-cooito 
t'lncMC^o comotocM 



- 00 f- CM to 

(o CM m o in 



ininininto mmm^'^ «cocmcm, 



tOrHCOtOrH ^eT^^CDC- 

lOrHenOlt^ CMlCCMCM 

C-OtOCOCM t^tOrH 

CO to CM rH rH 



t^ to ■* to m _ 
cotooiinen ^c^i„_- 

rHCMC^^OO tOrHCOtOO 



•* CM rH rH <n 
O CO to iH tJl 

m CO to en CM 



mmmtoin inm^^^ tocMCMrHrn 



X) 



^ en ^ en ^ 

in in to to e- 

• I I I I 

O tn o »n o 

in in to to r- 



<n ■'^ o> ^ 

e^ CL CO o* -8 

I I I I 

in o m o *n 

c^ CO GO en o 



< 



O ic O m o 



OS *<#• en ^ o> 

CM to eo ^ T*< 

I I I I I 

in o in cj in 

CM to to ^ -^ 



^ o> ^ o> ^ 

in in to to t^ 

I I t I J 

o m o m o 

to m to to c- 



94 



National Renources Planning Board 



to ^ to O I 

t- C- U5 ^ I 
t}< to lO fH 



CO li) 
O O: 



iHC4csj<^in toeo^-Oio <Df-f^c\jto 

'(i'COioiOt-t ,-ia>u}u}t-' tooiOmt^ 

lOCDOc^uj coa)Or-ito r^^coOkO 

*k«*K ••«»«« »•<»** 

CyWcotOtO tOPJ^-*^ ^<»tOcOC*J 



t* CO U3 Ol <0 
to O O CM rH 
to to lO iH 



o to ^ to ■* 

to 0> CD r-1 r-H 
CO rH ■^ rH 



^ o 
CD y? 



en lO 



(D t^ to O to 
O lO tD to to 

^- o cj 1/5 00 



•*■*■* eo O 
CM O O Cp CNJ 
O i-H CM ^ Ol 



to o to CM ao 

C» .-H O CO U) 
0» CM CO to to 



CM^^COtOtO -:*<'*^^^ ■^Tj^cOCOCM 



O O) O to to 

c^ CD ■* in ^ 

CO CM lO CO O 



rHCMrHOt^ C0U5O>COaj 

CO-^OJrHiC COCOCOcpiO 

r-lCMl/30i-H '#Crt01'^'^ 



CMtOtOiO"* -#^^iaiO '*«eO«tOCM 



lO O "^ CD C^ 
CD OS CM O rH 

o o ■* »-» 



CnC0«!jt(0^ r-HtOtOrHCO QCvJlO'-^cO 

CD^CDCDIO C^COCOCOCM COC7i.-4rHO> 

OlOCOOi-H cgiOOCM«3 CMtOrHCMCM 



to CO to -* ■*• 



•J* ■* lO CO •* 



^ ^ 'a* to CM 



CM to CC CD rH 

O 0> Ol rH 

01 o « 



lO ft 
r~i O 
O CD 



gOtflCMu^ in-t^ioc^oo toc^uatoo 
t*t^C^o> <J)*OlO[Hl> CDiOCTJOCO 

tOCOOrHCM lOrHCOb-CO CDlOC-OO 



CO CO •* ^ -^ 



rf lO lO -^ ■* 



^ -7* to to C»l 



tO CO t> CM O 

■«*<■* IC CC r-* 

t^ cn to 



CM O 
CO lO 



^OWCOtOCM ^lO'^COCO QCOCOCMt^ 

C'3COCO,-ti.M C^COCXJCOCM ^0-*C3>0 

COOr-HtOCO r-<COt-^CD COCMiOOCO 



to ^ '^ ^ ^ 



\n la *^ '^ -^ ^■^^^cM,H 



CD o CO ^ O 
•^ in o 1^ r^ 

CO CO to 



CO to 

CO c- 



_ _ COtO-*OU3 -^CO-^COCC 

__. "4*0 CMCOlOtOi-l C^-^COCDC^ 

CD^tOCOCM '^COlOO>0 ^OlrHtOtO 



CO ^ ^ -^ in 



lO '^ ■^ ■^ ID 



•^ CO rO CM rH 



CO O CO CM CO 
t- to C- t-- 

^ C^ CM 



in o> 
t^ to 



CMCOCMrHCM rHCOC-lOCM OOJCOOSCO 

'*cocotoco c^coocM^ o ■^ a> tsi o 

oeococM^ coinOr-tco wu>c^.hio 

tO^-^lOlO ^-d^lOlO-^ ^COc^JCMrH 



O Ol to O CO 

C- LO to CO 
CM (D CM 



CJ^C^CMtOCD CM-^f-ti-ntV ,-i ,^ to r-i t^ 

C^c-Locno CMto^toco otOCNje^to 

OCDCM-*OJ 'OQCMt-tO t-rHlOO»CO 



t^ ■* w in ■^ 



■<** in in -^ -^ 



CO to CM ,-( ,-* 



t- to o o 

-^ CM CM K 



O "^ 

CM in 
cv ■* 



(OtOCOt'Ol CMtOCOCrjCO OlCOCOrHtO 

o>cOf-Hioin rHt^fOC-in toco-^inm 

riCMlOOJCO rHCMCD-^Cft tOC0:Ot>rH 



-* lo in ->*< -* 



Ifi la -^ '^ f^ tOCMCMr-ti-H 



^ CD t^ CO in 

CO CM CO ^ 

o in .-H 



o 



P CM 

CD t^ 



c^^cMCMfO ocMc^OTOi ^mom^ 
ineocDoim too^corH co-^ojrHin 
oinoiCDrH tooiinom ocoomo 



■q' in -cf* ^ u> 



LO -^ ^ ^ to 



to CM CM rH r-t 



X CD to *-4 m 
rH ■<i" c^ ^ 
OJ •«■ .-» 



eOincococM cot-co^o into^CMr-i 

r^C*r-t<J»CO miOlOtOCM CDCOrHCOO 

CMCT)t>-nHCO C7>CO,-(tocg cocoootoo 



U> »^ ^ lO lO 



Tj« -a* ^ CO CO 



CM CM ,H r-< rH 



4» 

3 



I m CO CM rH 

> ^ in ^ (-4 



t* Tj« CM ■* lO 
CJ) to CO to iH 
CO C*- CM ^ O 



CO O ■«}* CO CO 
en to CM to CM 
CO CM t- to O 



CO ^ CI •■i* to 

to in m rH r- 
m o CD, CO CO 



^*<^ininin ^-^COtO^O CMCMrHrH 



O) ^ o> ^ 

t- CD 00 o> -y 

I I I I 

in o in o "n 

C^ CO CO OJ o> 



T|* Oi rH rH CM 

I I I I I 

o lo o in o 



<n ^ <n ^ a 

CM CO to ^ ^ 

I I I I I 

en o in o in 

CJ to .-o ^ ■<*' 



•^ oi -^ m ■<*• 

m in CO CD c^ 

I I I t I 

o >n o m o 

m CO to to D- 



Efitrmatex of Fniure Popniatioti of the I'niled Staten, 1940-2000 



95 



O 

o 
o 



to ^ CJ CM to 
sj< CO Ol to 

C-- CO eg 






t- CO 



lO CO (H U> (7) 

W CO O OJ '^ 

^ t- Oi o w 



CSJ r-« CO CM OO 

<* w o> o» to 

(O CO CO Ol CM 



Ol <0 CM m to 

U3 o> to r^ 00 

to to 0> to CTJ 



CMCMCgrOtO tOCOtOtO^ ■^■^COtOCM 



rH rH lO O CM 

lO « t^ iH ^ 
CM CM ^ ,H 



to 
to 



CO ^ 

CO c^< 

in » 



O O CM '^ to 

rH CO y^ l« 

(O t~ CM 



O eO 

GO 00 

CM a> 



-* in CO 
CO o o 
in (71 P-* 



CM to CM o ^ 
-* CM CO O t^ 
CO Ol o =o P* 



03 to U> to CO 

o> CM in to lO 

CO CM C^ to i-H 



to rH ^ C- O 
•* VO CM OJ iH 
rH W ^ 



csjCMcOtOcO cOcO'*-*'^ ■^■rJ*tOfO:0 



O 
O 



m CO 

CM O 



^ oi o oj in 
o a> Eo -*< 

in CD CM 



8 



O e^ 



Q to c^ <J> Oi 
•* O (o ^o in 

t^ rH to to CO 

* « « * * 

CM CO CO to CO 



t-cMto-^oi cotocMO-H e-coeot^oj 

^ to •<* -^ r~\ OtOmcOrH OCMC^OO 

OiOtOcCO ^OrHCOO ooto 

-■O'^^'^in Ti*^'*';OtO CMrH 



rH CM 
0> rH 



cc CO c^ in '^t* 

^ rH O ■* 



□0 00 

CM rH 

CO CO 

to 



rH rH C-- rH m 

CO c> c- f- to 
a> to ^ CO oi 



■^ to ^ to t^ 

CO t^ a> CJ> rH 

O to CD o in 



O^CJiOrH OiOtOCO 

CMrJiCOOCO t-OJtO 



cMcocO!Oco -^ -rt* T^ \a -^ ^ -ttt -^ tn oi r-\ 



to CM »H O •** 
CO to C71 << 



to CO 

to iH 

to ^ 
CO 



rH CM O CO to 

CD CO CO c— O 

rH to CO en rH 

CO to CO CO ^ 



■^ in rH O CO 
m CM en to rH 
^ t» rH -^ in 



rH CM to "3^ CO 
Q to -^ 00 rH 
^ 0> r-t in CO 

■^•^tO-***^ ■^^■sftOCM r^ 



in rH t^ 
t- rH O 

in CO CO 



oo t^ 

CO r* 

CO t- 

to -^ 
to 



in rH o ^ to 

to rH t^ CO 
O --n rH 



<< CO 

lO CO *^ ^ 



D* CM rH ^- to CO O 
rH CM to CO CO t- C- 
r^ -^ CJl rH to to r- 



CO CO CJ CO O 
CM O rH CO rH 

cn in oi o c^ 



o SI 

g2 



•^in^^*^ -^^tococvi 



to '*' c^ CM ; 
CO in -"^ CO 

Oi "^ r-\ 



IS 



t- to r- CO ^ 

to 01 N CO 00 

to oi p^ ■^ m 



ai rH C-- CM CO 
rH t- CM -^ in 
CM to -^ CO O 



to o> CO in CO 

O rH CT) rH 00 

t- CvJ -^ t^ CJi 



'0 CM 01 CO to 

a> in c^ tn 

CM to CM 



toco*^^ \a '^ -^ 'i* \n -^^cocMrH 



to CM ^ O ^ 
t- Cl CO CO 
03 to rH 



O eo o in to 
t* to in o '^ 

C- rH -^ O CM 



CM m Ol CM to 
O to O) to CM 
C^ ^ CO rH CO 



co^^ioin ^^^uT'^ 



tOCMtOtvm tO"^"*0>in 

O^-^-tOr-; coino-* 

^t>-O^C0 rHinCM 

■^ to to CM rH >-* 



CD 

o 






t- CO t^ to PI 

in in CM CM 

C^ to rH 



lO 



0> tf) 

to to 

to £>. 



■^tOCftCOCO t0^tD*Dt> 

OmrHtOCM Ol'^'OlOCM 

oi'^ocMt' ■^oirHOkin 
to ^ in in Tt< 



mtOCOm-* tO-^COrH^ 

■^CMtOtOo> yDCJCO-3^ 

cneoc^CMio fji ''i* >-* 



iTjiio^^ tOtOCMCMrH 



O Q r^ 
en ■^ rH 
to CO rH 



CO CO 

o in 
t^ :o 



Ot-lOO>tO rHt-rHChlM 

rHCMCO^CM OO-^t-OtO 

cv' o CM t- lij a> c-j o> to o 



•^ O lO 00 lO 

CO a> (O in in 

^ oi in Oi to 

CO CM CM rH rH 



CM O to ^ '^ 

to in in CO 

CO ■^ rH 



tJ* cm 
CO t- 



in to in f\i CM 

in CD ^ CM 
to CM 



CO '^ to to in 
in cr> to ';t< iH 
t*- CM t^ in o 



o in to CO to 

oi CM t- T« ai 
ci o to rH in 



r3iiost<^m tnin-^'J^to 



to CO rt in en 

^ ^ CM to o 

rH t- CM to C*J 

to CM CM ^ ,H 



(O CO o cv. to 
J) C-- CO CO 
C- CO rH 



in en 



O 



CM CO <« en CM 

t- 03 0> rH 



(D CM 

in CO 



«, -, ^ , w CM ^ O 2? CM 

Ot'to^w t>to»-'P*Ln 
O^-inOtO ot'C^jtOcM 



to CO rH to t- 
Oi r-i Qi Oi •-* 
CC ^ CO ^ rH 



o to in CD to 

to 'H CM CM 
to CO rH 



m^^inin m^^tOto q^ c<i i-i r-* r-* 



^ to 

to CM 

CO o> 



oo O CM t^ (O « 

00 in CD rH lO 

^ CM * 

CO 

in 



'*':J<t*tDt0 CMt^Tl*LOCO 

CMt*tOtOrH COtO^cOO 

LOinO to rH C^CMt-tOO 



■^ ■**< in in in 



■cj< ^ to fO CO 



to ^ O) CM in 

•^ in 00 i> CM 

m o *D CO en 

CM CM rH rH 



rH eo <?» c^ in 
in o o eg 

m to rH 



CO 

3 



CO to 



oi ^' en ^ 
t>- CO CO <n oB 



in o in c5 m 
t^ CO 03 en en 



■* a> ■* 

■<3< Oi rH iH CM 

O in o in o 

r-l rH CM 



tn^cn^en ^tn^tn^ Oi -^ o* ^ 

evjtoto^^ inintotot^ c-coooen-s 

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 

- - - oinoino --nomom 

inm^tot* f-coooojoi 



5** 

I - 

O 



96 National Resources Planning Board 



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lU r-i 


d 


*^ ja 


" * 




■^ • 


•n C3 




Si f-* 

> 

« 




CO 

a 
o 


u 


a »; 




u 


^ 1 






*»v -' 





eOrH'*»-ICO tOO-^J'CftOp lOOtOOlCO -^lONoOrH fr^ o>m 

W'^ift^ON tOOCTltO^ <OtOC0(Ol« UjC^cO t> O* 

O TflOiOtOtO tOCOWUJU) tD«)'S«tOCM ^H t- lOCO 

O 00 00 



COlO-^tOfH OtOtOCUlO O'^^JQtO lOCMOCOrH Q lOCO 

tAc--Otot^ oocof-o oiLOiH^t^ eoc^csi aS ^j^c^ 

lO ^ in V3 to <o t^t-;Dtot- (OiA^tocM r-t CO mo* 

o> » • 

0» <D 00 



t^iotococo t-oiowto cocncoo^ t-«ococ*r-( go o^ 

00OW^-O i-l<J>OtOeO 0^-*H»hC> NtON « COrt 

^t£)(D«)C^ b-tOCOC^C- CO-*'*tOW rH Ol UiO 



toc^a>^<o o***cvjcv;cp cototo^io cjW'**(OrH m oo 

r-<tOe^fHCa .-tOlOtO^ WCpUif-tU ,H«)CvJ cm rHCi 

u> io«>toc^t^ t-c*t^r-«3 lo^tocvjr-i (H CT) too 

CO • » 

0» CO Ol 



»»-toaeoo too>-*^cM eoioojcmh o»^cj(d« t-- wo 

■"" --- r-t V) tX) C^ U3 tOmtO«)t- QICN « ^ ^0 

t^t-t--tDlO lO'i'tOCVirH (H • of) COO) 



C-OlC^C*-tD CvjtOlOtOO ^tO'i^rHCO lDC7>OiO« ftl t*-W 

t^-iHtONpj cooo>cDC- ocncMtQto oj'^w o ^ cow 

lOt-C^C^C^ t^COtOlOUJ LOtOtOCVJi-t • C^ COO) 



OCO^'i'lO COWtDlOO C-Oiy^CDtO COlOt-Tf*i-4 Q 

rHtotoeocn iHrHOa>^ tot^cow^ co-^,h X 

^D^-^•t^^- cot-toioio ^tocMCj^ »o 



t^ to (Ji ^ to COeOt^t-rH WE-rHOOtO COCDtOtO 

cacQtooco c^Jc^J,-^y5^• wwcoojeo c-tor-i 

(Dt^t--COa? IVtDgDi/5^ rJ^cOCSJr^^-^ 



tO^O^W COtOOtOO) OlOC^OO b-lOO^« f- r-t to 

c^ -^ t-* -^ ■^ ^otoo>c^>lO coco<*«coN toroeo ■ (o -^o) 

co^-ooco^- (Otoio^*'^ tococsirH«H • o> c^o 



lO OCJ.HEOW ^00>C-tD eQt--ioi!0^ cjtOiOtO* d « OCD 

lO tOrHlOlOlO iO t-4 r-t CO r^ COOiCJCDO tO"*!-! • C- 3 lOm 

OJ <O0OCOt-(O tOyaiO^^ eONCJrHrH . (13 » t-t^ 

o 

§ 

SCM'*0'*0 cncnNip'^ ^ -li* <o Q *^ tOMrncJ* w t. eOeo 

OS tOCDf-tOtD «3Lnm'*'«i* tOCMWrH . to r-l COiO 



COtOr-t^OO OllOWOC^ CJCOOOlC- t^^0>(0 

CM(Ot*>CO'J» lOtOC^lOCO (NJinC^CUrH lOCM 

t-t^«>CDtO tOlO^^tO tONr-irHrH 



I0^t0'<*»0> OlC^rH'**'C*- rH»-*lOO100 (NJO'JiWN tO Cj OOt*- 

lii t^ Oi fD t- ioa>cnNto O'^toicco ^•n r-t 3 c^rt 



^<7>f-*^w cotoeoTi«^ loioto^ot- t>a3cooi<« 

I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 

oiooii^o lOQifioLO oiooioo moLooio 

r^^^N COCOtO'*'^ lOiOtOtOt- t>coco<J>o* 



o 


•H 


c- at, 


o 


4> 


to (O 


o 


St 


00 ^ 



Estimales of Future Population of the United States, W4O-WCO 



97 






to to -^ eO CM i-l iH 






lOCJrHOltO tDTjttDincg 
lO(DC3>»HiO CDO^t-tDO 

^lOiAcoco totototoc^ 



^ rt ^ O «3 
01 to to to c^ 

to to 'i' to N 



.H rH to CM ■<*' \0 

a> ^ 10 cNj o 

i-H r-l O 



to CD 

la o 



^ CM e>J CM (O 

^ 0> CM to C> 

2 10 to to «5 



eococHtoeo tot-tot*0 

OCOCOCMtO iHCT)COlOtO 

t-totot-e- to'^'^tocM 



O 60 U3 01 rt 



C0"*lOCftiH ^fHCOtO^ 

tOtOt^t-tO WlO^tOCM 



'J* to CM to to (O 
^ en -^ iH r-« 






^- to to CO to 

to to O r-( O 
lO <0 t^ D- t^ 



■sJ^ 0> O LD t^ 
O lO CO c*- t- 

c- t- c^ to in 



O 0> CO to to 
lO Oi Q •-• O 
lO ^ ^ cO CM 



to m IV ^ CM t- 

•* C*- to rH t- 

>-* o 



■^ lO CM 10 ^ 
^- O CM [H f-t 
U3 C^ t- t- P- 



CM to ■^ C71 -^ 

^- o> 01 oi 00 

t- t-- to lO lO 



OJCM-^f-lfi tOlOiHrHCM 

■^r-COtOO 1-HtOtOrH 

10 ^ to CM CM rH 



to o 



S^5!^5^ OOt-OOlO ^t-lOlOlO rHlOtOOtO -H 

S£?tf£ii£ r:?r*'-'Q*=o cM-*cMtoto oiocMrn o 

tO^-e^t-t- C0«>-tOtBlO lO'^tOCMr-t rH 00 



O ^ 



lOOC*-CM<M ^CMCOOt- 

CMCMCMOCM CMtOCMrHlO 

tot^p-c^co ^-tototOLO 



toOtO^^ tOineOtOCM 

O>a0CM,-H^ CO^CMr-t 

^ to (O CM rH 



Q 9> 
to V 



.HCD0O'*<tO tOlOcO'#eO 

CMCviOitOeO ^^cocoto 
tOf-t-OOt^ tOtOtOLOlO 



lOCMCMtOCM OrHOJCnCM 

CMCOtOCOCNi E^-^CM 

'^ to CM ^ rH 



O>rHiH0pO> OCMt^CMrH 

CMO^V'lO tOlOOtOtO 

tOCDOOE^tO tOtOtOlO^ 



rHCMOiCOO ^CMr-*C^r-t 

tOr-tCMlOO tOlOPJ 

■<*« EO CM rH rH 



to O 

to O 



tO^tOc-ttO OCOt^O>CM 

tocot^toto totoio^^ 



e^ i/i lO O rH 
lO t- Oi to 0> 
to eg r-l I-* 



O CO 
»H LO 
CD C^ 



I— iCOCnOCO CDO^OtOlO 

eOlOt-05CO -^^rHOcn 

C^C*-tDtDtO tOtOLQLOeO 



COtOi-tCOlO t>00(OiOrH 

rHtOtO»H.H inCMi-H 

to CM rH rH rH 



lO a> 
00 to 



<J>rHOiOO> ^0>t--CDtO 

lOCOOOtO eOtOtOCMlO 

totoc-t-to tDmu)Tj*(o 



tOtOtOCOi-H tOtOCMin-V 

CM ^ rH ^ 



■* 01 ■* 

^ 0> »-l rH CM 

I I I I I 

o 10 O 10 o 



o> ^ 01 ^ o> 

CM eO to ^ ^ 
I I I • I 



^J* CT) ^ 01 ^ 

lO lO to *^ t^ 

t I I I I 

O lO O lO o 

to 10 to to f- 



lO O 40 O lO 

c~ 00 CO a> a> 



:3 Tf< 4 

-o 00 

•< Eh 



98 



National Resources Planning Board 



o 
o 
o 






t*> o t^ »o o 

0> CO CO <o o 

ft o o « to 



CO to CO ^ lO 
t* r-l 0» fl W 
•<*' W CO CM 



CDC^C-t-OO Ch0><y>00 ^Hr^<nC^<X^ ■*CM 



rH in 

to rH 



«0 t- <0 Csl 01 
fl CO O ^ CM 

rH lO CO O * 



CM o> to Cp CD 

CM t1< rH ^ fH 
CO O <H rH lO 



C0CMO>U3CM rHCOOilOrH 

C^QC^OiO* CMtOcoeOtO 



COi-)r-tt-CM ^OCOCOCM 

0*0(00t0 C^O'HOTCM 

t«-0>lOOU> fHCMCOrH 



(o e- e^ CO 9ft 



o>ooOf« rHcncoooto 

rH rH »H rH iH 



CM rH 
O lO 



OOltOlTJC^ lOtOCMCOCO 

rtb-Ortt* OrHCM^CO 



o 

CT> 



CDlOlO'^a) ^0>tOTj»CM 

<}<lAiOCOUO lOCOt^CDO) 

COCO^rHr- OCMt-C^O 



OO^lOmO ^ \fi fO t-A r-* 

C^COOOIO) tOrHUSCOCM 

lOtotocMo a>o^-rH 



^OC^COOJCn OOOrHCM 



o a> oi CO to 



tOCMrH^O"^ tOiHCMtOtO 

0:C\JtOOrH t-QOWrH'* 

^OWt^O rHCMtOO»H 



rO »*•■*}« ^ in 



m m m CO to 



CO^JC--W*i* COf-HrHOOin coi 

tD[0^mCT> COC^^CMt^ rHCntiOCMcO 

CSi»#r^(00> CMCOOltOcO Oli-HtOC^f- 



[^ CO Oi o> 0» 



O O rH CM O 



cr> o o> c^ m 



b- to 

CO O 



COtO^intO rHOjCMCg^ 

OrHOO'**tO C7>t-rHC0rH 

l>-eO<001rH CMinrHCMVn 



to ^ ^ rC U3 



m tn CO (o in 



t- in ai CM CM 

O CM rH OJ eO 
CO rH CD t- CM 



c- ■* c- o> ^ 

CO -^ 0> CO ^ 
CO O ■* O CM 



mrHOt-<M DOtooLn^o 

r> iO t> "^ r-^ lOrHtOinrH 

t-inC7JtOCO tOb-COrH 



t-CnO>0>0 OCMCMrHO OOCOt^lO tOrH 

rH ,~i rH t-i ^ r^ fIrH 



cMOeointo cocDCD^m 

C0t-CM<Om CRt^OO-^tD 

OlCOCnOCM inrHCOCOrH 

to^^iom incotoiOLO 



eOOOOWe- COr-iUacp^ OrHCOCMrH ^COrHtO' 

inCJlCOtOtO COrH'rf'V'eO CO^COmr-i OtOQcOi 

Tj'inoOrHOO OtDCM^rH rHCOlCt^CJJ r^ V> f£> t-i 

CMCMrHOi-H rHCJlCO^D'** COfH 



t- CO 
lO Oi 



CMOlOb-CO COtDCOOm 

f-irH'^com o>tntoo>o 

eOcnOrHin rH^»«b-CMCC 

'j'^ininin cotoiomm 



4J al 



»1 






inrH^iptO OtOCMOCJ> 

cocor-it*-o tototoiom 



COCMCMTiJ'tD <O^OjO^ 

OCOiniO-!** «3airHCMr:i 

^tOOJCMin Ol^iOrH 



CO Oi O O CM 



C^ r-\ C:> rH r-i 



tOWO-^W CCt^tOCMrH 

CMCOCMtOtO OiOtOCOt^ 



o oi e- to •* 



CPb'aiCOO rHCMCJ>tOCM 

tOiOC0a>l^ rHOitOrHrH 

aj(DCMC«-tO C^CM';J<rH 



CnOOrHCM rHOrHrHO 



oi 00 c- in ■* 



U> 00 
CO (O 
<o ^ 



(D to (D (O O 
to to *0 O) i^- 

m O »-t *j* rH 



eo •* ^ o> tn 

CO O 00 to CM 
Tf> CO to t- t* 



■^mtotnto lotnminin 



rHE^O-<^rH OlO«3COO 

lOmCDrHCD CMlO^J^tDW 

(OrH'^rH-* 0O'*COCOCM 



^ ID lO to CO 



m LO in ic lo 



-P -p » 

OS -rl ? 

rH rH O 

04 



•;S 



OO-^C-rHOO rOCMC^r-tO (OcMOOCOtO tOOlOJOlO 

ino^cocD intDc^rHrH a>b-«)inco "^to^oirH 

COOOJintO t^<00>OW rHQ*^'''^ COrH^ 

CriO»-HCMrH OrHrHrHO OcOtOlOEO CMrH 






-i' CO 
to t^ 

rH O 



oOtoo«3 into-;j«cocM 

tib-OrHO t^CMCOCOO 

C^^rH'S'CO ^J'OOltOO 

■^LOtotoin ininiomm 



J3 43 

ad U 
EH O 

O 

1-3 



tncDCMtOCO tOOOGO^rH COtOOOOO> CMrHlO 

^tOmcnCM CMrHOtOt^ rHCMrHC»^ CMrHCO 

OOlinCMC- C-rHCMtnm tOlOlOO"** rHrHCO 



CDrHCMrHO rHCMrHOCJi 



tOUJCOCOCO OmCMtOrH 

O'^COlOrH OlOt--WfH 

i-HinCMCOb- CMtOb-COO 



CO t>- <D lO to 



O CM rH O O 

t^ to OJ CM CM 
O CM 01 '^ rH 



rH C^ rH Q rH CMrHOOJO) COOlO^CO 



^ 0> Q CO 00 

rH in « r- 

O O) !0 





to 00 




<o to 




b- to 


u 




3 


t- 


u 


rH -* 


g 


■"* 







>» 




rU 






to OJ 


Cl 


rH ^ 


© 


CO 



flo o) CO CO in 



t> in »* in 'J* _ 
toa>omio incoco^oo 



OS o ^ rH to 
mtotoiotn mtoinin^ 



^ 01 CO m t— 
in OS ^ o ■* 
to to t>- ^ o> 



to CO 01 Oi O 

- - -I ^ 



mtoinmin tomm^'a* 



rH O ^ O rH 

CO CO in C~- rH 

to CM to to CM 

rH rH O rH CM 



■* to to to CM 

•* CO in o b- 
•^r O) o w '^ 



in in cft CM CM 

CM O O Q CO 
CO t^ CM O CT> 



(Oocnco t-toin'=*'co 



to to O) O CO 

■* CM O C-- 

e- 00 CO 



a> 10 

to rH 
to CO 



CM CO rH Cn CM 
r*« ^ Q O rH 
OS C* ^ CIS rH 



-n CO t- o CO 

rH to CO rH fO 

to CO a> to CM 



lommmco .nin'^^'*^ 



c ^ 



cMincO'^co tocMmoom 
■^co'j'coco cji'i'^coin 
intob-tom ocMiot-cM 



UJ Vi^ k~ I'J u^ tJ ^^ "V * *^ *^ IW t 

OOrHCMrH rHOO>OOCO ^ Mi -^ 

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 



in^i'CMOt- Or-b-t^rH 

cMoot--com mt^cM 



in o^ CM o «^ 
lO <H in CO a> 

CO -^ CJ> rH CO 



rH O '-O Oi (Ji 
in ^ -^ rH O 
■^ O b- ** «M 



mmmtoin mm-'j''*'* 



8. 



^ C7> fH rH CM 

I I I I I 

o 10 o w> o 

rH rH CM 



CT» ^ O ^ <7» 

CM to to ■^ tj* 

I I I I I 

lo o in o lO 

CM M CO Tt* ^ 



^ 0> ^ 0> 'J' 

in m to CO c^ 

I I I I I 

o to o 10 o 

iO 10 to (O t> 



01 ■^ 01 <* 

t^ CO CO o> •» 

till 

10 o m o in 

^" 03 00 0> 0> 



■«*< OT rH rH CM 
I I I I I 

O to o in o 



CT» -s* a> •* o) 

CM to CO ^ ■^ 



Kxtimatex of Future Population of the Citited Stntts, 194O-WOO 



99 



O 

o 
o 



«H (O CO U> r^ 
t«- 10 CD ■* eo 
to to <f ifl o> 



to o tn ■* f- 
10 ^0 to f- 
Oi at to 



lO to ^ to CM rH 



CO o 
CO w 
CO CSJ 



O <T0 i-H 0> CO 

o) iH CM to e*- 

Cn * (D CO rH 

CvJ :0 to ."O •*< 



C^ Oi P* DJ CO 
to iO ^ iH •-< 

in f- OD a> »H 

• • • ■ » 

'a* ■* ^ ^ lO 



<D ^ a cc a> 

N CU Oi r^ to 
lO 10 10 CO to 

« * ^ ^ <t 
lO 10 ^ CO CO 



o <o 

CO to 

04 at 



Ol ^ 10 to ,-H 

i-l CO o ■* o> 

a> o> oj CO tji 

lO ^ ^ to Csj 



O i-f 01 01 I 
on CO o «> 
C^ CO rt 



to c^j eo o ■^ 

t* rH ^ ^ ,H 



»0 ':J< O CO CO 

CO c^ «o 01 e^ 



Cn P- to ^ rH 

CO t^ 10 to ^ 
^- o> to r-i lO 



■<i* CC OJ 0> to 

OJ r-i O eJ rH 
to eO lO »H 



CO CO rt ^ ^ 



■*■*■<?' 10 in 



to -# 'J* ^ yj 



<0 N 
CM O 

CO CM 



. , - ■ 10 CvJ CM 
BO to UO Oi C^ 

10 ^ ^ eO C^J 



r- ■^ C^ -* to r-t 

CO .-t 00 to -^ 

to 00 CM C»- 



^- O 



CO'<J«'^CC'<^ rHCnOQOCn 



CO « r •* '^ 



'# vj< m lO 10 



<0 CO C^ lO CO 

rH --I -^ t- D 

C\J h- >- to CO 

IT^ ^ -J* ^ to 



00 F-t CO to "^^ 
f* O to rH r-1 
CM CM -^ i-H 



CM l<> 

to f~t 



CO CM to C^ O 
10 C-- to -i< to CO 

CO o: O to 10 ic 

CJ> • • • * » 

*-H ■<;*< lO ^ CO CM 



Ol to CO CM to 

lo in to to 
10 r- CM 



CM CJ 

to c- 

O CO 



o *o ^ CO ^ t- 01 aj to rH 

tOi-JtOOtO OlCOCM^to 



cj ■^ -^ <*• '3' 



rj< m J3 o 10 



I to CO <X) o 
r-< a> iH N 

« « * « « 
^ in •^' '^ CO 



OD -T< CO Oi to 
r- O CM O iH 
o ^ ^ ,_, 



10 10 
-* to 
CO to 



to to CO CM in 

Oi to CM 00 00 
lO »H CM to to 



to to .H 00 in 
Tj* o » m 

<* t- CM 



,H in in ^ CO CM ^ 



en CO 

CM CO 
to CM 



■^ m 10 >. cj> 

CM lO en CM t^ 
CO ■* to CO o» 



^ CO CM CO U^ 



oj m oj ^ CO 

f- 0> -S* to CM 
to fi t^ Ui CT) 



to ^ -^ 'sj* ^ 



in U2 to 10 10 



rH O O C^ rH 
^ ^ O 3> iH 

01 o -^ 



GO en 

CM ^ 



in in ■^ to CM rH t-H 



CD C^ CM CO ^ 

U3 O O •-» CM «-J 

cl: in i> o ^ c^ 

2 in ^ ^ CO CM 



CM to CO r-l in 
lO CO ^J* lO 
EO to CM 



to t-i 
CO CO 

to in 



CM CO lO to 0> 

^ CO r-t -* r- 

r-t to 00 en CM 



m to cj> CO o> 
CD m o m CM 
GO «-4 in ^ in 



^-f^'^in intDiomin 



CO -^ nH ^ t- 

in CO CM CM O) 

to r-i in to to 



CM i-H CO to O 

in in in CD fH 

C^ 0> CO 



in in -^ fj CM rH 



^oi^ooirH inCMcotoin 

CMt^f-lOI>- ,-i ^ r-i -^ 

0^t*-0)0 cOtOCM 



2 in ^ CO eg CM r-t 



« 

to ID 

01 CO 



oiCOtocjiin c^a:co.-(co 
mocO'^'r- t-i^,HCM,-i 

tOCOCTJCMCD r-iinCMtOOO 



^ 'i* ^ in m 



to in in in m 



CM CM in in in 

CO O CO •>* t- 

CO Oj i-H CO ^ 



r-( CO t- ■^ O 

in m o c^ »H 
to 00 to 



CO in 

O CO 

(^ O 



in ^ 'J* CO CM ^ 



t^ ^ -^ b- o 

■"^-^ CO CM CM 



C7i r-4 CO ^ -^ 
CM to 01 -^ 

CM in ,-H 



to CM 

in CO 
o to 



CM en O O OJ 

c^ CM '^ m t- 

^ Cr CM CO r-l 

**< sj* in m to 



O) E^ O ** rH 

to in cn 1-4 "^ 
10 CM to oi in 



CO to ^ CM m 
■* crs eg e- CO 

r-- ^ O O CO 



CM CM C^ CM CO 
CO CO C^ t>- 

■^ e^ CM 



00 o 

CM to 

eo ■* 



lOinininin in"*cotocM ,-* 



OCM<Oeom ^cotocn 

^ t-Otnmoo t-otrco 

56 ^(jiCMtoco oi^'-t 

2 rjl to CO CM ^ .-) 



CM CM 
CO O 



cji'^'ini-Hto cocncMeooo 
coco'^J'in'x) b-toc^'^o 
incMOTiHin oic-ojtpco 



to o m CM c*- 
CM r- ^ O 01 
b- »-) in a> o 



CM o CO o to 
c^ to to to 

CM to CM 



■^ m in t£) in 



LOinminm vJ<^>^cmcm ^h 



rj<CM-<i<crit- ■<}ic^^'«reO 

cHOOCOCO^ r-aDto-"0 

CMtO*-*'^^ Oi "^ r-i 
^ to to CM ^ 



CO CO I 



I in CM 



CO cj> in to ^ 

to **< CM ,-( CO 
t~ O ^ "^ OD 



'3" »-) to 01 CM 
Q -^ CM O O 
^ (O CO (O CD 



CO -^J* i-H O ' 
^ CM CM 35 
iH to CM 



<<Lntcmu3 intoioin^ -^'cococMrH 





r^ 00 




to CO 




c\a c7> 




* « 


3 


in to 


(0 


t- 



O O t^ CO -^ 

O CM CTi c^ cn 

O to Oi r-1 "^ 

tji jO CM CM »-f 



CM CM CO CM to 
CO CO ^ CO 
31 t« rH 



CO b- 

C: to CT) 
0) rH to 



C73 to O CO ^ 

^ '^ ^ in c- 

^ r^ in CM t- 



: to KJ t^ r-< 

CO CO o 01 c^ 
o t- in cj> m 



O t^" ''' CM to 
C- ^ CT» •* CM 

O 'O cn CM to 



CM c^ t^ to m 

CO M CLI ^ 

o in ,-H 



intoicmin mmm';!*'* ^eocMCMr-i 



m CM 
c* 10 

CO ij> 



^OiCMOOOJ GDCOtOCJieO 

in»HtOC-CM CMt-eOCM 

cn^too*'^ coC''3<-t 

CO CO CM r-l ,-H 



COr-ttOtOi-l ^OiCMtCf- 

lOr-lCJiOlt- CMlOCMCM 

t^OtOcoc-j t-tO.-t 



O CM 

in (J> 





Q C- CO iH 0> 

^ to m to 01 

C- lO CM t- 

x> LO LO in to 


CT> to CM to 
CM b- 00 O) CO 

CO m to CM 

« « • • * 

in in in ■* -^ 


ft to to "*• to 
C^ CO t^ CM to 

00 CM in tn 
• • • ^ * 

to CO CM CM ^ 


d 









rH 

a* 


tv to -tj* CO 10 
CO to :j> in Oi 

,H OJ t- r-1 CD 


to C-) o> to 
■^ t* to ■* 

to r^ CO CO 


^ CM rH f-H 0> 
to CO r-( a> 

in CO to o> CM 



■O CO to r-t 10 

rH Tj< e* ■«• 

OJ ^ rH 



BO to CM rH i-l 



miOintoin mio'*-^-^ tocMCMrHrn 



CO to 
C7> rH 
U3 O 



^ a> ^ Oi '^ 

to in to to t- 

I I I I I 

O in o m o 

m in <o to c^ 



Oi ^ Oi ^ 
t*- 00 CD 0> •« 



in o ira o irt 
t^ CO CO o> 01 



^ o> ■^ 

^ O r^ rH OJ 



I 

o 



01 ■*■ Jj -^i Oi 

CM CO to t;< -;?« 

I I I I I 

in o in o in 

CM CO to ^ ^ 



^ o> ^ o> "^ 

in m to to c- 

I I t I t 

o 10 o in o 

in m 'O to i^ 



0> ^ Oi '9' 

C^ CO CO o> -*i 

I I I I 

to o in o m 

t- CO 03 Oi Oi 



100 



National Resources Planning Board 



to t^ O N 00 
GO M 0> GO CVJ 
(O O r^ to CO 



'^ ta t^ '^ r^ 
rH CD -<JI r-t rH 

o> o r-( ej ^ 



ID C- f- eg CO 
lO o> O w c*- 
e^ CD 00 o ifi 



tp ^ C\} C\J <o 

^ to oi to 
f- CO evj 



CNitOtOtOeO tO^TjiTh'j* ^-^coeocy 



CO U3 






o» 



cOi-teQ<oa> ^r-icU'^a> 



eg eo CO to CO 






lO o CO eg CO 

00 rH O CO CO 

0> CM CO to CO 

■* ■^ to to CVi 



o o CM ^ in 

•-( 00 CO lO 

CO t^ CJ 



^ CD m CO r-t 

rH to CJ CO U3 

t^ O eg ^ t- 

• « « « * 
CO to CO to CO 



CD CO T*t in ^ 

eg Q 0> to t-- 

OJ o o to t^ 



gc^Tj'.H''*^ ,-i t^ a% Ui t~ 
0>l0i0t0 ^OlflrHlO 

OtOCDCT»r-l C\J(OmOf-H 



to CO to CO •?< 



^ th th isi in 



fx> \n oi 'C oi ^GiOoiO 

CDOOCDOCIC OOltO^ 

^ Oi Oi ^ ^ lOCOCO 

^ to to to CM ,-H 



m o> CO CO ^ 
CO CJ t>- to •* 
00 eg Tj* c^ oj 



m 'i* o> ^ o» 

eg eg c*- ^ r-t 
O iH to CO O 



CMCOCOCOcO f^f ■^ ■^ -^ Mi 



Q isi \n -^ (X) 

W (7i i-H rH 01 
eg CiO r-4 eg C>i 

• ••»• ••>«•>■> ••••»<« 

lOtoto-s**^ ^j»-5<ioio^ ^-^^coeg 



O O to eg o 
Ok CO to m to 
rH CO a» .-H eg 



CD rH CO rH to 

to o 00 CO eg 

CO CD O C^ CD 



CO .-J C-- in ^ 

■^ fH O ■* 

to CO eg 



1-4 0> 



t-ocgcoto t*-eg^wt^ 

O^C^OiO rHTt*C0OU> 

• •••• •«««■! 

cotocOco^ rC'^'^in'* 



ooo^^O cg**coc-co 
loe-coioco eoty>60r-ic- 

•^OrHCgtO CDrHCOC^tO 



tot»-mtoo eocgrHi 
cotncnocD comcn 

COlOt^OO rHinrH 



eocO'4<<4<^ ^inm^'j* 'd*'*'eoeocg rt 



■^touDcoco c~-cgcD^co 

cot-comco eoiO-^cocH 

CgC-CJiOrH ■^CTlr-(intO 

lOEOtO'**''^ ■^sJtiO^^ 



OtCgoOrHO rHlO-^COCO 

egt^cococD c*-oooococg 

t-rHCgtOCD iHtOt^^OO 



tO ^ ^ ^ ^ 



lo in ^ ■^ ■^ 



sgsss 


lO rH O -^ to 


U9 


to r-i e^ to 


eg 


CO eg m CO CO 


O in ^ 


e- 


«.■>«*. 


• 




"^ ■^ to eg rH 


i-H 


to 



^OCOOCD fHt^tOCOO 

coc-cocoin cocotob-c^ 

\a Oi Q r-* -^ Oif-tCOeOt- 

totO'j*^-^ Tj«in^^-^ 



o m CD to to 
eg b- o) CD O 
oi eg ?o CO eg 



eg to to -. . . 

'^ CO in o> o 



^ to ^ to CO 

c^ ^ CO CO eg 

'J* <J) M to CD 



(O "# t- eg to 
CO in ■^ to 
at ^ >-\ 



5) 



to -^ ri* -r^ \n in-^^^in ^toiocg, 



CO.-lrH-^CD cjir-ic^egco 

v"t^<7if-co rHoeg'^jtin 

^-Oi-t^CT> cgeo-^coo 

• «*«<» «««%« 



2} 



oj ■=i< r-i rH eg 

4 Q P to CD 



o 

^ -^ ^ lO to 



rH to c^ in evj 
f- CO o eg -^ 



i>cg^ oomOrHco 
•* tj< in lo -^ 



O o> CO oa 'o 

o -c** oi eg o 

eg in !>■ r^ U3 

^ to eg eg rH 



CO cvi -^ O to 
t^ cJi to to 

CO to ,H 



Q ^ 
■* to 



^ CD CO in CD 

^ Cft a? Q -^ 

CO ^ ^ O eg 

CO ^ -* in in 



eg m o> eg CO 
O CO O) to eg 

t^ 'S* 00 rH CO 

« * « * * 

•* 'i** ^ lO •* 



eg O eg to CO 

^ rH in CT) o 
rH t- eg Til cjj 



Cg^Jt^iHt^ i-HiH^iHC^ t^COt-COC^ 

cgtprHinco oitocgt--fO inmegcg 
cooegt-to t-^u)cnto c^tOrH 



■^•^inin^ ^LOin***'^ 



to to eg r-t rH 



to o 

CO * 

^ 00 

■<*• eg* 



^egoicoco -^^jtcocot- 

tooj,-tCDeg oi-^OkOcg 

Ol^Ocgf- ^0>i-lCJ>iO 

co«*mm^ ^^in^^ 



cgcocooo^ cgcotoo>cD o>cocdi-hco 

locor-ttoin tHt-eot^in ineO'!*<inio 

^eguDcncD i-tcgco^itcn toa>tot^,-H 

«•>««« *««*• «M«>«« 

^inio-*^ lom^-^to toegcorHrM 



O Q rH eg eg 
<j> ■* f-H eg 
CO to ^ 



^ o> 
c- to 



inc-tncj>to .Ht>HOjcg 

'^cgco^cg cO'i't-Oio 

cgocgt^tn ojc^otcoo 

'^t'lnin^^f* ^m-*'** 



e- rH eg eg CO 
in CO CD en in 
a> in oi CO r-t 



O eg c- ctj cr> 

to O CD CO M 

CO c7> in o m 



rH m o m ^ 
CO ■* CD .-( in 
o CD o in o 



m CD lo eg eg 
tn en a> eg 
CO eg 



n* iQ ^ -^ xn m-<^Tt<-^co toegcg,-HrH 



tO'^cocom o>ncDcoco 
moico^rH oicgc^-^oi 
t-cg[^ino cgocOr-iu> 



■* lO ^ xj< to 



in lo * »3« to 



tomcocoeg cot--c0'40 

f-it^f-toico incoiotocg 

woit*-i-tio OiCDr-ttoeg 

lO'l'^inin ■<i«-^j*^eoto 



into^cg,^ cgio^oicg 

cocDrHcoo r-ma>»H 

CO to CO to o m CM 

eg eg rH ^ rH 



CO CM 

in 00 



noiO'V^O egr-(Ococg 

O^to^to t-c^iHt^m 

OC*-mocj o^-egcocg 

in^-^inm m^-^eoto 



fH c^^cg^LO ooO'^coco co'^cn'tfco 

§g o>cotOtOi-t CT>tocgtoeg totnin.-*c- 

^ cDt-cg^O cocg^-too mo'ococo 

* »-« ■^^inmm xjt^cofoco c\jegr-t(— i 



00 o eg r- I 

CO £5 cj i-t 



(I) 


m b- 


■n 


o t- 


§ 


in to 




lO 


u 




o 




<^ 





13* '^ f* CD CD 
eg C^ CD CO iH 

in in o to rH 



eg c- t*« 10 to 
CO CO -* to o 
p- eg r- to o 



^"^inmin ^rftocoro 



•H 



•^ Oi nif 

^ en r-4 »-t fig 

I I I I I 

O 10 o 10 o 



en ^ Oi ^ <n 

eg to to 'S* ^ 

I I I I I 

in o m o "3 

eg 10 to ^ ^ 



O U5 o in o 
10 in CO CO i>- 



ij* -V* Oi ^ 
C*- CO CO 0> "O 



in o »n o in 
^- CO CO en o> 



■^ oi ■* 
^ en rH rH eg 
I I I I I 

O m o io o 

rH r-t eg 



CT) ^ 0> tJ* 01 

eg to to ^ ■^ 

I I I I I 

m o in o m 

eg to to ^ ■**< 



EMimate!^ of Future Pojmlatiov of the United Stateti, 1940-2000 101 



o ia Oi to r-i an intof-iHf-t lO 

o io to Oi t!0 Oi cvicg^pH t- 



oo<rmtDco to r-* '^ t^ o o> o *f> 



r^ ^ to EO to 



•Z -^ rt* -lil to CO Wi-H 



e\: ■^ to ^ CO t>- Oi to 

tJ< ^ ^ CO cy ,-1 



^ ^ TJ* CO W r-t 



cooo:ncoo '^t'^aiO^s a ujm 

NOi-HCOrH M-^tOCO pH Cl'* 

■^^eotocufH lo com 



Oi-*C7)r-tco cniooom 

^ -if* to C\J ,H r-i 



Oi>-t^tOrH loioo'* in oi o 

^totoc\;r-^>-^ -^ »^^ 



iO no to in -^ tO-^COrH^ CV) "Ho 

OJtOt^CNJlO OJ^f-H O WpQ 

cOtocvjojrH eo -i*tQ 



OOOiCOiOUi tOLOlOtO 

•^OilOOiCO CO'^iH 

CO N cO" ,-1 rH 



to CD to in oi 

ri« ^ CJ CO O 
r-l C- C\i CD CM 



COtOr-tCDC- ocDincoio 

cJjr-tcr>co»-i cd»-«cv:n 

ajTJ^c0^r^ <D to i-i 

• • • • ^ 

CVJ CM rH rH ^ 



co'd'oicvjio f-4e03>r-u3 co »-. cocj ©.-t a,^ 6,-i vi^ 

■dtiOCOt-CNJiooOCM lO (DrHlO +»XJ x>aJ Si ^ 

tOOCDtOcj* ^tO(-i ^J •Oco'-D •'-•qj -he-* -* -• 

CMW^^ io3^to s: ^tn ^ ^ 

in lO « gj ocaou 

U Co] C OTa^i^A 

O U (- (D ^^ t^ 

^ CO) oe ou ojo) 





■^ lO 


c: 


to OJ 


o 


to en 


•H 




+a 


lO to 


01 


\Si 


fe 




C 




q:> 




u 


CO CJ 


© 


^ in 



c to c ^^ « w 



U5mci;(£)c^ t-encocT'oa oi 3 ^oJ 

I I I I 1 I I I I -P -m I -P 

omoioo inoiooin o -T* oo 

iniotococ- c-cooo(3i<j> en < e-« 



536726 O - 43 - 8 



102 



National Resources Planning Board 



\ 



0» O "O (£> £^ 
0> a f CM 0> 
CO C- fH iC rt 



t o *o n c^winHci 



> O C^ Tj» o 
>-l CM 



io<or-t>oa oowmoio ,HrHO>a)p- iocmih 



0> Q 



o^iocniH ioNcoa>-i 



r oi o> * 
I to H o 
I <o CM 9> 



«o c^ c^ <C 00 



cMcj>CM*in -f OMO ■^ at ^ >d t- 



) n inocftcot^ iHC-ocM 



(j> at a> o i-i iHooooor- 



Q <c 
* CM 






CO O) 

o r- 
oo CM 



■* u3 o m « 

Q C^ rH O in 
CM (O 0» TO lO 



't *fi •* to to 

t^ «) lO rH * 

c^ oo o> CM r- 



g 



' CO p- to 
I ^i w e^ 

I CM O^ to 



^inoi^to ^co^rHTi* oatototo^ 

C^r-tO(OtO OtOinOilh OlCprHrHOj 



tOC*-C000O> C»0>OrHiH OCTiOiOiC^ 



03 O 



cotO'i'tDto o<»a»wto 

0>r-lf-ltOO> Oi<X>tOCOO 
tOOiOJlOt^ CDa»C3C0O 



to CO ^ ■<}• -^ 



^ ^ m in <o 



rH Q lO to rH 
00 ^ ^ Q .-I 
O CM <7» ^ to 

C^ 00 00 0> Ok 



CO ^ lO * 

aTo'rH CM o 

rH rH rH rH 



_i (H a> r- to 

D- CO iH to CO 



(7> O O 00 to 



SS3 

<* CM 00 



CO <0 rH M 

en CM JJ 



Sf3 

to 00 



tOCOtOCOr-t inoj'i^c^io 

rHrHC-QrH .HOCT)OltO 

tOCMlOCOOi otooooco 

to '4' •* -^ '<*' lO IT) in to* lo' 



<D CO CO CM to 
to in CM T* ID 
to Ot '^ to 00 


to iH O CO CO 

<p to to in c- 

^ tD r^ I> <T> 


P- OI E^ CO Ol 

C^ 0> CM H H 

(O O in CM CM 


O O t- r-( 


CM* 


CM in 


C« CD Oi Ok Oi 


o <-t w o o> 

rH rH rH rH 


O O 0» GO to 


■* CM 


CD to 

in 



- - J CM to 

00 m CO Ok o 



to* 'C >* in 



to (Ji rt »# O 

m in <£> in in 



CO CM in fH in 

to 3 p H 

1 ^ <o * in 



to ^ IC I 

00 CD <7> C7> O 



mC-COICrH CVl^ar-llS 
MCMr-CMCM OOCMtOtO* 
r-CMC0i-IO> iHrHO*tO 



(HOIOOO rHO«t-IO 



p CM fH * m t- 
CM CD C- ■* rt C^ 
<0 00 <0 fH ^ 



Ol to 

CJl H 



«A u) iH 00 ID 

to CM Tjf lO ID 

CM 00 0» O to 

tj« * •'^ in in 



) O U, lO CM 
■ CM iH O Ol 



tn to in m m 






D o 



C\! to C- <» fH 

in c^ CO in Ol 
c^ to o> in c^ 



TftocMC-o totointH 



COO^OlOfH CVJOOfHfH OOlOOtOtn tOfH 



m r- 

00 CM 



to '* t^ L 

'i" Ol o to o 



* * in m to 



SCM r- C^ CM 

r- ^- 00 <7i 

CM in fH lO to 

to in in in in 



O -H^ 
P. rH I 



m Ot O fH CM 



CD in ^ I 
^ 6 CO ■ 

CM to 00 ■ 



I O iH CM fH 
fH fH <H f-( 



O to CM to r- 



■^ to ^ to 83 

o CO in fH c^ 



H O fH fH O 



r- fH fJ m <J> 

to to fH to to 

■* to 00 0> CO 



O CO C^ to 'Jt 



CM 't to to O 

r- o o en in 

01 CM Ol t^ CM 



O fH iH O O 



cji 00 to in •* 



CJl to in Q CM 
<J1 Q 0> CM -H 

en * t* H 



CM ^ fH 91 



m 



SCM 
t^ Ol 



5? <» 

8? 



c o (30 to to 

CO 00 O ^ O 

in o ^ o « 

^ lo m to (O 



S I^* o w tb 
^ in to to in 



in in in lo in 



Soo ^ r- 00 

to o> in to 

CM C* 00 to o 

in in in in in 






•5 '-' 

Hi -rl 



in 
in 

Ol 



to CO oo o en 

C^ O Ol C5 iH 

00 Ol * CM in 

<n »H CM rH O 





.098 
,524 
,253 
.596 
,573 




s 


<»1 


fH CM fH O rH 



CO to Ok CO ^ 

to in ^ lO Ol 
■^ o» rH in in 



to CO I _ 

to in lo CM lo 



rH rH f-4 O <ft 



(O m o c^ CM 

CO Q to to CM 

o P5 r- 00 o 



CO D- to in to 



tO ^ CTi to tO 
00 00 o C* CO 
O CM O ^ rH 



CMrHO<T»0» COr-tD^tO 



R 3 I 



<0 qj ^ CD CD o» 

iQ £ rt t^ w 

O 0» to lO 



G 

« 

,& 

a 
e 



CO eg 

tog 

2t 



2 5 



SOO rH t- to 
r- r- o» CO 
O O CO to to 

in to to in lo 



^.^ r- 00 in 

in CD CM to IQ 

to CO t- to CO 

to to lo m in 



P- to C" CTt O 

a> P- in in rH 

D- o» ^ p-< c^ 

in in in in ^ 



to Q O C^ CM 

•^ ^ F- nf iQ 

O « W CO ^ 

to m lO ^ ^ 



2 



O'l'OCM iO'!j'-*'*t^ 



rH H O rH CM 



■* to in Q > 

-^ <7» O to ^ 
rH O O C7I CO 



o o> CO in 1 

P5 p rH rH 1 

CD P* CM O < 



p* to in ti* CM 



to c- o» o ' 
in cj o t^ 

r» CO P5 



a> 

CM 



rH f* 

Sifco- 

I-* to 



3 to rH O CM 
^ Q rH rH 
0> P- ^ O) rH 



to ■* 00 rH O 
rH to to rH ^ 

to CO cn tO CM 



inoininio intn"^^^ 



aati 
1940 


1 


1 



^ o* ^ 

rH rH CM 

tTciiAA 

Oin rH rH C5 



to CM iQ (c in 
Oi ■^ -^ OO in 

O N m t- CM 



r- * CO c^ o 
in •* CO o p- 
CM 00 r* 00 in 



* •«» t- o ® cy* 

O t^ t^ t^ rH to 

lo t- eg *o 



rHOOicoco r-in-'i'cocM ^ 



o 

tjt ^ <Xt "^ 
E^ CO oo 0> a0 

in o in Q in 

^ CO oo O) <71 



§ iiS 



-■3 

I o 

O Bi 



inoiCMocM i-t o ^ Oi <y* 

inHinoSo* inr-t*<rHQ 

W^O>rHtO ^OC-^W 

inmiotoin min^^^ 



^ O* ^ Oi '^ ^ •^ Oi 
rHrHCM CMtOtO-*^ 

OlOrHrHCM ^WtO^-* 



Estimates of Future Populatiori of the United States, 1940-2000 



103 



a> ID iQ a> c^ 
o c^ o tn 

to* lO ^ V CO* 



o r- ■* CO o» 
i^ *£) in o» 
to O] ^ 



§ 



CM >o 



00 05 CM n Tl" 

00 Q o P) 6 
CO n m r- o 



eg W CO to ^ 






in lO * ■* (0 



to en ■* >o H rt 






,H f« [^ CO m 
o ■* CO a> Q 
00 o •* to c- 

« in ■* Tf to CM rH 



8r-t ^ O CO 
-en rH 00 
CO .H ■* 



in 



t^ a> 

CO ■<i' 

*J« 00 



tO^CntOr-l C^tOcjtCDCM 

r-ocMf-im oioincMio 
oinc^oto iDvo^-oiO 



to to to t * 



-5. ^f ^ in in 



in Nil ^ ^ Tj* 



CM S 

to ♦ 



q3 <7> 4D CM I 
to rH CO Q ' 

ci5 c^ 00 in 



rH O CM O 00 
rH CO C^ 00 
CM O to 



in -^i ■* ■* to CM rH 



IS 



(X* 00 

to in 



^•-•O'-<t0 tor-ow-* 
tncorau>co cooDr-toco 
cSr-otoio uDc^oyjflo 



00 -ij* CO CT) ^ 
to H rH 00 r- 
rH IN a> D* 00 



to n 'p -^ -^ ^^j^ii^i/j 



ITS ^j* ^ ^ f J 



rH to 5* to «> ^ 

00 Q TJ to iH to 

« ^ to ^ ^ 



in Sp 



W iH CD N to 

gin 00 rH CO 
rH CTt r-i r-4 

■*" to ^ ^ CO 



yD to tc in ^* 

gC'' to r- 
<ft CO 



C\J Q 

CO S 

O) CO 



OO CO oj in < 
to 03 to ci < 
■^ o CO in i 



tj ^ ^J* XT' ■* 



CT» M W CO 00 



CO to ' 

in to < 

CO rH ( 



•-0 O 

to r- 
tn to 



■^toioiom '<i<iotntj«co 



^ 'I* CO rH ^ H 

CO C^ Op 03 rH CO 

^ OJ ^ rH to 






10 «J to 0> rH 

in CM (O 5- ot 

CO to in CD CD 


■* to ■* CO <o 

rH 00 H U5 
CD 00 to 


CM 
CO 
CM 


CM lO 


in in -t to CM 


rH 


<o 


■* to 



rH 03 to ':*• 00 



to ^J* C> CO to 



tO'«-<j<<<4>'^ tomioio'^ inin^'<i»co 03h 



03 cy to in H 



S to 
o en 



i-H Q to to c> 

^ Oi rH CO H 

in CD to tn to 

in ^ 'I' CO 03 



c\i oi t^j ^> in 
^ 03 CO in 



*o ^ ^ to a> 

03 ^ 'It 



rH r- O CO CT» 

tp Q 05 H Oi 



1^ 2i ^ ••> V **J r-1 wv 

^-cor^ c^otoo'4' 



03 ^ O) 00 tO 
■^ to rH 03 OJ 
to O) r- Oi O 



OO to 00 CO o 
C^ tn CO 00 rH 

a> o to 



^^^^rm totoinmin toio'^toto* t~i t-i 



8 

o 



c^ ID 00 in c^ 
o> in Tf rH e^ 
o <o o> CM to 


^ c^ CO o in 
•^ ■«i* to in 
in c^ CM 


s 








in •* to to CM 


M 


<o 



■* in 
in tj< 
CD ■* 



SSSR'2'52' tOCMtOCMCJl OCOtOCDrH UJ'tl'int^O o 

SP JS S "^ r 21 Q f^ o in 5 o> ro t^ F; cm w « c^ S § 
cvc^oorHc^ o^oint^ *cncMini> cDcnto ? 



^ ^ Tj* in in 



iDinininm to^^^tocM r-t 



to CO 
ID o 



CS 



to CO CD O -^ 
C>- Cn rH to •* 


■* O CO ID •* 
Oi CM Q ■* 
to lO CM 


8 


§R 


CO CM ID ej> CM 


CM 












•^ •'J' to CM CM 


T-i 


in 


■* m 






> 





trHCOtO CTlCOOOrHrH Oin OJOi't 

'°3Q5r tOrHtO'qJtOJ C-t0 02 03rH 

irH®0 -^rHlOCOin rHlOOi03in 



in > c*- to 03 

gr- CO i*- 
O- 03 



^^lOioto inmiotnin m^totooj r-i 



s 

en 



in 0} 
in M 
c- to 



o 

CD 



CT> C^ (7i in (D 

CM 00 to Oi to 

in en to c^ o 

■t to* to" cm" CM 



CJSSS?"'" C^COCDOOrH '3't^'^OCM 

tOCOTOOr- inCMrHOO -^rHlOSrH 

irirHODrHTf rHiOCTiyStO C^CMlOOCM 

'ttnintDin ininininin -^-^tgco'cM" 



o in CO o ' 

in CO ID CD 
to <D CM 



to ■^ ^ CO 03 
^ t\3 03 to to 


O 00 

CO o 


to 




to 


to 


w 


0) to 

to U3 


to g» c^ ^ ^ 

•* « 03 O CTi 


03 ^ OI Oi CO 
C^ 00 CT> 0") 00 


in 03 ■^ rH to 

rH to -T to to 




s 


to 


to 


census 

5,234 

73,756 


03 C^ OJ lO C»* 


o to 








CD 


d 




CO CO rH lO rH 


to Ol to CO 00 


^ CO to to 00 


rH to OI 




■* CO CO C\J rH 


r-i 








OJ 


o 


lO « 


■^ in to lo in 


to in m in -<^ 


^ to CO OJ rH 


r-\ 






CO 

t*- 














^ 

G 




















to to rH O; 03 
rH CO rH rH to 


in ^ 


■* 


C\) 


to 


c- 


0) 


■* o 


1> CO to CO 00 
"* to 03 C\3 rH 


■^ to S 8 r- 


■«*♦ CO C7) Tjt -^ 


100 
529 

187 


to 


lO 


OJ 


<D 

Xf C^ r*t 

rH 00 CD 


o to o 03 in 


o» '^ 


rH 








^ 


• ■ - • ■ 


o c^ 't oun 


O to 0» C\3 to 




'i' to CO Ol H 










t- 


o 


to r^ 


in to in in in 


to m in * ■* 


^ CO OJ OJ rH 


t-i 








^-"S" 



-S. S 



r- CO in to o> 



ro to 03 rH r^ 



CO rH CO to rH 
in rH Oi o> ^■ 

r- o to CO 03 

to CO 03 rH rH 



UJ UJ vij ^t>' b" 

in to to to c<^ 



^ o> to o> to 

to C* BO CM 

00 to rH 



^ oi pj ec t^ 
CM lo cv; OJ 
t^ tfi ^ 



a> -^ a» ■* 

C- 00 CO <Jl ^ 

ur. o in o in 

C- CO CO CT» 0» 



03 lO 

in to 

^ OJ 



3 



■3 

O E-i 



,740 
,537 
,253 
,761 
100 


O rH tD to 00 

« r- OO cn to 
00 m o to CM 


to e^ xi CT» o 

C^<0 t^ CM ¥ 

COM in o in 


O) CD to rH If) 
rH ^ C- ^ 


(O 


■S 2 " 

ti rH rH 


in tn in m ID 


in in uj ^ ^ 


toco CM CM rH 




CD 

to 


a * 


D- tD ^ to in 
CO tD o» m en 

rH CM r- rH CO 

m in m tD in 


5,646 
5,172 
4,800 
4,369 
4,046 


•* CM rH rH Cn 
<5 to to rH t^ 
in CD to 0> CM 

to CM rg rH r-T 


Q to (O OJ rH 
® rH to <*• rH 
C^ ^ rH 

U 


00 

S 
12 


ed for under 

5,592 

66,013 


0-4 

6-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 


25-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 


50-54 

60-64 
66-69 
70-74 


75-79 
80-84 
86-89 
90-94 
95 & 


■3 
+> 

o 


Adjust 

0-4 

Total 



104 



National Resources Planning Board 



o 
o 

o 



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to Ol rH lO to 



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CM t-- ^ 10 «0 

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l^-^iOiOio ^^cOtOcO 



^ en t»< 

^ 0> fH rH CJ 

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o to O lO o 

rH rH CM 



cn'qt«o>-#cn ■•d'cn-c^en'* cn^en^ 

CMCOCO***"!** lOiOtOCOt-- E--c0C3O)^ 

1 I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 

IfJOiOQiO OiOOiOO lOOiOOiO 

cMtoco^\j< mio^tof- t*-cococnoi 



•* en -sj* 

■^ en rH rH CM 

I I I I I 

o to o to o 

^ ^ I>1 



Oi ^ Oi '^ Oi 
oj to to ■^ ^ 



Exti mates of Fiitiin I'opnUitioii of tlu I 'u'lteil States, U).',0 2000 



105 



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i/i to ^ ^ 



eo e- 
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t- CO 



CM CM O t^ <D 

t^ a> CM ^ CO 
^ I/) to to eo 



Ol U3 CO CVJ CNJ 

C^ U5 CO C^ LO 

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CO r-t -^ 



s 

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CO 0> 

to oo 

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to to to CO t^ 



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106 



National Resourcfs Plavning Board 






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to to 



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CMrHf-flOt- tf)(OtO*tO lOCOCO 

t^t^t^e^tO lOlO-^tON rH 



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to i-H Tfl N ^ 



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lOtOtOC^t^ F-t^t>(S«D U^lAl2S'<i•■0 



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to m 

to n 



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toiotocoi-i catocNj 

to ^ to CM CM pH 



cn to 

to t~i 



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t-QOC^tOtO iOcO^tOCM 



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too»ot»-to aja>o>iot^ ujcMOiio, 

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■* Tt» to ^ to 
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a)rH 



rHCOtJ>OcO OOrHtOtOtO O^r-ICOlO 

fOlOt>cnC0 'J*.-4fHOtJ> rHtOtO<-li-H 

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s § 



00 t- 

c^ to 



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to lo to to r^ 


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t^ CO 00 


o> 


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lO 


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to in to :o c^ 


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0> 



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Kxtrmaten of Future Population of the niiltid State>i, 1940-2000 



/iitKition of the innti'd ^^tatei, 1H/,U-2W0 ]Q7 



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looiooio o 'o oo 

t-ooaoa>oi t-* -a. £-• 



108 



National Resources Planning Board 



Tabl* 14 t-Deduotions to be Made from Future Population in Table 3 (Blgh Fertility Uedlum liortallty) 
to Allow for 110,00 fewer births (100,000 white, 10,000 oolorcd) during 1944-45 J/ 
(Thousands) 



Total population, botn sexes 
1945 1950 1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



3000 



0-4 24 


74 


, 


1 


10 


28 


31 


23 


16 


17 


22 


26 


5-9 


26 


79 




1 


10 


30 


34 


24 


17 


18 


24 


10-14 




26 


79 


• 


1 


10 


30 


34 


24 


17 


18 


16-19 






26 


78 


• 


1 


10 


30 


34 


24 


17 


20-24 








26 


78 


• 


1 


10 


30 


s.-? 


24 


25-29 










26 


78 


• 


1 


10 


30 


33 


30-34 












25 


77 


. 


1 


10 


30 


35-39 














25 


76 


, 


1 


10 


40-44 
















25 


75 


, 


1 


45-49 
















• 


24 


74 


• 


50-54 
















• 




24 


71 


55-59 














, - 


• 






33 


60-64 
















• 








65-69 
















, 








70-74 
















• 








75-79 
















• 








80-84 
















« 








86-89 
















, 








90-94 
















, 








95 & over . 
















• 









Total 24 100 105 106 115 143 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 
0-4 26 79 . 1 10 30 
Total 26 105 105 106 116 145 



176 



200 



216 



232 



253 



378 



34 


24 


17 


18 


24 


28 


178 


201 


217 


233 


255 


280 



Total Males 



1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 12 


37 


. 




5 


14 


16 


12 


8 


8 


11 


13 


5-9 


13 


40 




• 


5 


15 


17 


12 


9 


9 


12 


10-14 




13 


40 


, 


• 


5 


15 


17 


12 


9 


9 


15-19 






13 


40 


• 


• 


5 


15 


17 


12 


9 


20-24 








13 


40 


• 


* 


5 


15 


17 


12 


25-29 










13 


40 


• 


• 


5 


15 


17 


30-34 












13 


39 


• 


• 


5 


15 


35-39 














13 


39 


. 


• 


5 


40-44 














, 


13 


58 


. 


• 


45-49 














• 


• 


12 


37 


• 


50-54 














. 




• 


12 


36 


55-59 














. 




• 




11 


60-64 














. 




• 






65-69 














• 




• 






70-74 














• 




• 






75-79 


, 












, 




, 






80-84 














. 




, 






85-89 




. 










. 




• 






90-94 














. 




. 






95 & ov«r . 














• 




• 







Total 12 51 54 54 59 73 
Adjusted for undsrenumeration of culldren by census 



90 



102 



110 



118 



129 



141 



0-4 
Total 



14 
14 



40 
54 



54 



54 



5 


16 


17 


12 


9 


9 


12 


14 


59 


74 


91 


103 


111 


119 


130 


142 



1/ It Is assuned that one-fourtn of tae reduction in birtns occurs In 1944 and three-fourths In 1945. 



Estimates of Future Population o1 the United States, 1940-2000 

Table 14 (continued) 



Total Females 
1945 



1950 



1956 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



109 



0-4 12 36 . • 5 14 

5-9 . 13 39 . .5 

10-14 . . 13 38 . . 

15-19 . . . 13 38 . 

20-24 . . . . 13 38 

26-29 ..... 12 

30-34 

35-39 

40-44 

45-49 

50-54 
55-69 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
35-89 
90-94 
95 & over 



Total 12 49 51 52 56 70 
Adjusted for underenumeratlon of cnlldren ty census 



0-4 
Total 



13 
13 



39 

51 



51 



52 



5 
67 



15 
71 



15 

15 

5 



38 
12 



86 



16 
87 



11 

16 

15 

5 



38 
12 



12 
98 



8 
12 
16 
15 

5 



37 
12 



8 
12 

16 
15 



37 
12 



106 



9 
114 



11 

9 

8 

12 

16 

14 
5 



36 
12 



98 106 114 124 



12 

125 



13 

12 

9 

8 

12 

16 

14 

5 



35 
11 



136 



14 
137 



Httive Uales, white 



1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 


11 


35 


• 


• 


4 


13 


15 


11 


7 


7 


10 


12 


5-9 




12 


37 


• 


• 


4 


14 


16 


11 


7 


8 


11 


10-14 






12 


37 


, 


, 


4 


13 


16 


11 


7 


8 


15-19 








12 


36 


, 


• 


4 


13 


16 


11 


7 


20-24 








• 


12 


36 


• 


• 


4 


13 


16 


11 


26-29 








* 


• 


12 


36 


• 




4 


13 


16 


30-34 








, 


• 


, 


12 


36 


• 




4 


13 


35-39 








• 


, 


, 


, 


12 


35 






4 


40-44 








, 


• 


, 


, 


. 


12 


35 






45-49 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


. 


11 


34 


. 


50-54 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 






11 


33 


55-59 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


. 


, 


• 


10 



Total 11 47 49 49 53 66 
Adjusted for underenumeratlon of cnlldren by census 



81 



92 



99 



106 



0-4 
Total 



12 
12 



37 
49 



49 



49 



115 



126 



4 


14 


16 


11 


7 


8 


11 


13 


53 


67 


82 


93 


100 


106 


116 


127 



1^/ It is assumed that one-fourth of the reduction in births occurs in 1944 and tnree-f ourtns in 1945. 



no 



National Resources Planning Board 



Table 14 (oontlnued) 



Native 


white, 


female 










-"-—- — / 














1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1995 


20( 


0-4 


11 


33 


• 


• 


4 


18 


14 


10 


7 


7 


10 


11 


5-9 




X2 


36 


. 


• 


4 


13 


15 


11 


7 


7 


10 


10-14 






11 


35 


. 


• 


4 


IB 


16 


11 


7 


7 


15-19 








11 


35 


• 


• 


4 


13 


15 


11 


7 


20-24 








« 


11 


35 


• 


• 


4 


13 


15 


11 


25-29 








• 


m 


11 


34 


• 




4 


13 


15 


30-34 








• 


• 


• 


11 


34 


, 




4 


13 


35-39 








• 


• 


• 


• 


11 


34 


• 




4 


40-44 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


11 


34 






45-49 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


11 


33 


• 


50-54 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


11 


32 


55-59 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


10 



Total 11 45 46 47 51 63 

Adjusted for underenumeratlon of cMldren by census 



0-4 
Total 



12 
12 



35 
47 



46 



47 



77 



88 



95 



102 



111 



121 



4 


13 


15 


11 


7 


7 


10 


12 


51 


64 


78 


86 


95 


102 


111 


122 



Colored Males 
1945 



1950 



1955 1960 



1965 



197) 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 1 S ..12 

5-9.1 3 . . 1 

10-14 . . 13.. 

15-19 . . .13. 

20-24 . . ..13 

25-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 

Total 14 5 5 6 7 

Adjusted for underenumhratlon of children by census 
0-4 14 ..12 
Total 15 5 5 6 8 



3 
1 



2 

9 



10 



1 
10 



11 



1 
11 



3 

1 



12 



1 

13 



1 
1 
1 
1 
2 

2 

1 



3 
1 

14 



2 

14 



1 
2 
1 

1 
1 

2 
2 

1 



3 
1 

15 



2 

16 



1/ It Is assumed that one-fourth of the reduction In births occurs In 1944 and three-fourths in 1945. 



Kutimatex of Future Pofmlation of the Vniied States, 19^0-2000 



111 



Colored Female 
1945 



1950 



Table 14 (oontlnued) 
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 13 ..12 

5-9.1 4 . . 1 

10-14 . . 14.. 

15-19 . . .14. 

20-24 . . ..14 

25-29 . . ... 1 

30-34 

35-39 

40-44 

45-49 

50-54 
55-59 

Total 14 5 5 6 7 

Adjusted for underenumeratlon of children by census 



10 



11 



0-4 
Total 



12 



3 
1 

14 



1 
2 

1 
1 

1 

1 
2 

1 



3 
1 

15 



1 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


2 


2 


6 


8 


9 


10 


11 


12 


14 


15 



15 5 5 

1/ It Is assumed tiiat one-fourtJi of the reduction in births occurs in 1944 and three-fourths In 1945. 



12 



National Resnurcen Planning Board 



Table 16 :-Deduotlbns to liada from Future Population In Table 3 (High Fertility Uedium Uortality) 
to Allow for the Deatha of 110,000 Uales (100,000 white, 10,000 colored) in the 
Armed Serrioes during 1943-44 and the Acoompanylng Deorease in the Birth Rate, 
(ihousemds) 



Total yopuiation, Dotn sexes 
1945 1950 1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2Q0Q 



0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 



15 

33 

26 

18 

11 

4 

1 



35 



15 

32 
28 
18 
10 
4 



42 


34 


23 


20 


27 


34 


34 


30 


28 


30 


37 


45 


36 


23 


22 


30 


36 


36 


32 


30 


. 


37 


45 


36 


23 


22 


29 


36 


36 


32 


• 


. 


37 


44 


36 


23 


22 


29 


36 


36 


• 


• 


• 


36 


44 


36. 


23 


21 


29 


36 


15 


. 


. 


, 


36 


44 


36 


22 


21 


29 


32 


15 


, 


, 


• 


36 


44 


35 


22 


21 


28 


31 


15 


, 


a 


, 


36 


43 


35 


22 


17 


27 


31 


14 


• 


• 


• 


35 


43 


35 


10 


17 


26 


30 


14. 


• 


• 


• 


35 


42 



50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
85-69 
90-94 
95 & over 



10 
4 

1 



16 
9 
3 

1 



25 

15 

8 

3 



29 

24 

14 

7 

2 



13 
27 
21 
11 

5 



13 

24 
18 



11 
21 
14 

6 
2 



10 
16 

9 
3 

1 



34 



10 
5 

1 



Total 110 143 185 219 « 240 256 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



0-4 
Total 



110 



37 
146 



45 
188 



37 
222 



23 
241 



22 

258 



278 



30 
280 



304 



36 
306 



326 



36 
329 



342 



32 
345 



355 



31 
358 



369 



32 
372 



Total l>Iale 

1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 

5-9 
10-14 
15-19 
20-24 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 



15 
33 

28 

18 

11 

4 

1 



18 



15 

32 
28 
18 
10 
4 



21 


17 


11 


10 


14 


17 


17 


15 


14 


15 


19 


23 


19 


12 


11 


15 


18 


18 


16 


16 


• 


19 


23 


18 


12 


11 


15 


18 


18 


16 


• 


, 


19 


23 


18 


12 


11 


15 


18 


18 


• 


• 


• 


18 


23 


18 


12 


11 


15 


18 


15 


. 


. 


. 


18 


22 


18 


11 


11 


15 


32 


15 


, 


. 


• 


18 


22 


18 


11 


11 


28 


31 


14 


, 


, 


• 


18 


22 


18 


11 


17 


27 


31 


14 


, 


, 


. 


18 


22 


18 


10 


17 


26 


30 


14 


• 


. 


. 


18 


21. 



50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-89 
90-94 

95 & over 



10 
4 
1 



16 
9 

3 

1 



25 
15 



29 

24 

14 

7 

2 



13 
27 
21 
11 
5 



13 

24 

18 

9 

3 
1 



11 
21 
14 

6 
2 



10 
16 

9 
3 
1 



17 



10 
5 
1 



Total 110 126 146 163 171 178 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



185 



194 



199 



200 



200 



200 



0-4 


• 


19 


23 


19 


12 


11 


15 


19 


18 


17 


16 


17 


Total 


110 


127 


148 


164 


172 


178 


186 


195 


301 


202 


201 


201 



Estimates of Future Popnintion of the L'nlUd States, 1. 940-2000 



113 



Native Wftite Males 

1945 1950 



Table IS (continued) 
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 



1980 



I9et: 



1990 



1995 



3000 



0-4 


, 


15 


5-9 


. 


• 


10-14 


, 


. 


15-19 


14 


• 


20-34 


30 


14 


25-29 


26 


29 


30-34 


16 


25 


35-39 


10 


16 


40-44 


4 


10 


45-49 


1 


4 


50-54 




1 


55-59 




* 


60-64 




, 


65-69 




• 


70-74 




• 


75-79 




• 


80-84 




• 


85-89 




• 


90-94 




, 



19 
16 



14 
29 
25 
16 
9 

4 
1 



16 
20 
16 



13 

29 
25 

15 

9 

3 
1 



10 
17 
20 
16 



13 
28 
24 

15 

8 
3 

1 



9 
10 
17 
20 
16 



13 
28 

23 

14 

7 

2 



Total 100 114 132 147 155 160 
Adjusted for underenumeration of ciiildren ty census 



1? 
9 
10 
17 
20 

16 



13 

27 

22 

13 

6 

2 



166 



15 
13 
9 
10 
16 

20 
16 



12 
25 
20 
11 
5 



173 



15 

le 

13 

9 

10 

16 
20 

16 



12 
23 
17 



178 



13 
16 

16 

12 

9 

10 
16 
20 
16 



11 

19 
13 

5 

2 



178 



12 
14 

16 
16 
12 

9 
10 
16 
19 
15 



9 

15 



176 



13 
13 
14 
16 
16 

1? 
9 
10 
16 
19 

15 



10 
4 
1 



175 



0-4 


, 


16 


20 


17 


10 


9 


13 


16 


16 


14 


13 


14 


Total 


100 


115 


134 


148 


156 


161 


167 


174 


179 


179 


177 


176 



Total Female 
1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



l-! 


20 


16 


10 


10 


13 


16 


16 


15 


14 


14 




18 


22 


18 ' 


11 


11 


14 


18 


18 


16 


15 






18 


22 


18 


11 


11 


14 


18 


18 


16 








18 


22 


18 


11 


11 


14 


18 


17 








• 


18 


22 


18 


11 


10 


14 


17 












18 


22 
18 


18 
21 
18 


11 
17 
21 
17 


10 
11 
17 
21 
17 


14 
10 
11 
17 
21 

17 



0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

90-54 

55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 4 over 



Total . 17 39 57 68 79 
Adjusted for underenuaeration of children ty census 



93 



110 



127 



142 



156 



170 



0-4 


• 


18 


22 


18 


11 


11 


15 


18 


18 


16 


15 


16 


Total 


• 


16 


40 


. £8 


69 


79 


94 ^ 


111 


128 


145 


157 


171 



114 



National Resources Planning Board 



Table 15 (oontinued) 



Native White Females 
1945 1950 



1955 1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 


15 


18 


15 


9 


8 


11 


14 


14 


13 


12 


12 


5-9 




16 


19 


16 


10 


9 


12 


15 


15 


13 


12 


10-14 






16 


19 


16 


10 


9 


12 


15 


15 


13 


15-19 








16 


19 


16 


10 


9 


12 


15 


15 


20-24 








• 


15 


19 


16 


10 


9 


12 


15 


26-29 








• 


• 


15 


19 


16 


10 


9 


12 


30-34 








• 


• 


, 


15 


19 


16 


10 


9 


35-39 








• 


, 


, 


• 


15 


19 


15 


10 


40-44 








, 


• 


• 


, 


, 


15 


19 


15 


45-49 








• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


15 


18 


50-54 


. 








. 


• 


• 


. 


. 


• 


14 


55-59 


• • 






• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


Total 


16 


34 


50 


60 


69 


80 


95 


110 


123 


135 


147 


Adjusted 


for underenumeration 


of calldren by 


caniuB 














0-4 


16 


19 


16 


10 


9 


12 


15 


15 


14 


13 


13 


Total 


16 


35 


51 


60 


69 


81 


96 


111 


124 


136 


148 



Colored Males 
1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1995 


20 


0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 


• 


2 


2 
3 


2 

3 


1 
2 


2 

1 


2 

2 


2 
2 


2 
2 


2 
2 


2 
2 


2 
2 


1 
3 


i 


• 
• 


3 

• 


3 
2 


2 

3 . 
2 


1 
2 
3 


2 

1 
2 


2 
2 

1 


2 
2 
2 


2 . 

2 

2 


2 
2 
2 


25-29 
30-34 
35-39 


3 
2 

1 


3 
2 
2 


1 
3 
2 


1 
3 


1 


• 


2 


3 
2 


2 
3 
2 


1 
2 
2 
2 


2 

1 
2 
2 
2 


2 
2 

1 
2 
2 


40-44 




1 


1 


2 


3 


1 


• 


• 




45-49 




• 


1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


• 


• 


• 


50-54 






• 


1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


. 


• 


• 


2 


55-59 








, 






1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


' 




• 


60-64 
65-69 
70-74 
















1 


1 

• 


2 

1 


2 

1 
1 


1 
1 

1 


1 
1 


• 

1 


75-79 
















. 










1 


1 


80-84 
















• 










• 


• 


85-89 
















• 










• 


" 


90-94 
















• 










* 




95-0 ver 
















• 










* 





Total 10 12 14 16 16 18 

Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



19 



20 



22 



22 



23 



25 



0-4 


• 


3 


3 


2 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


3 


3 


Total 


10 


12 


14 


16 


17 


18 


19 


21 


22 


23 


24 


25 



Estimatef! of Future Population of the United States, ] 940-2000 

Table 15 (oontinued) 

Colored Females 

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 



115 



0-4 . 2 2 2 12 

5-9 . .3321 

10-14 . . .332 

15-19 . . . . 3 :? 

20-24 ..... 2 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

60-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 

Total • 2 5 7 8 10 

Adjusted for underenumeration of ctiildren ty census 



12 



15 



17 



19 



21 



2 

2 
2 
2 
2 

2 
2 
1 
2 
2 



23 



0-4 


3 


3 


2 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


3 


Total 


3 


5 


7 


8 


10 


12 


15 


17 


19 


21 


23 



1») 



National Resources Planning Board 



Table 16 :-Deduation8 to be Hade frcm Future Population in Table 7 (Medium Fertility Medium Mortality) 

to Allow for 110,000 Fewer Births (100,000 white, 10,000 oolored) during 1944-4Ski/ 



Total population, PotC sexes 
1945 1950 1955 



1960 



(Thousands) 
1965 1970 1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



79 

26 



1 

78 
26 



25 
9 
1 

78 



0-4 24 74 

5-9 . 26 79 

10-14 . . 26 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 

30-34 
55-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-59 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
85-S9 
90-94 
95 & over 



Total 24 100 105 106 114 138 
Adjusted for underenumerstion of cJiildren by census 



28 

26 

9 

1 



18 

30 

26 

9 

1 



11 
19 
30 
26 
9 



12 
12 
19 
30 
26 



17 
13 
12 
19 
29 



167 



186 



197 



209 



224 



Total 12 51 54 54 58 71 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



85 



95 



101 



106 



114 



0-4 
Total 



14 

14 



40 

54 



19 
18 
13 
12 
19 



26 


78 


• 


1 


9 


26 


29 




25 


77 


, 


1 


9 


26 






25 


76 


• 


1 


9 








25 


75 
24 


74 

* 

24 


1 

71 
22 



241 



0-4 


26 


79 


« 


1 


9 


27 


30 


19 


12 


13 


18 


20 


Total 


26 


105 


105 


106 


114 


140 


169 


187 


198 


210 


226 


242 


Total 


Males 


























1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1995 


20< 


0-4 


12 


37 


• 




4 


12 


14 


9 


6 


6 


9 


10 


5-9 




13 


40 




, 


5 


14 


15 


10 


6 


7 


9 


10-14 






13 


40 


, 


• 


5 


14 


15 


10 


6 


7 


15-19 








13 


40 


• 


, 


5 


14 


15 


10 


6 


20-24 










13 


40 


• 


• 


5 


13 


15 


10 


25-29 












13 


40 


. 


* 


5 


13 


15 


30-34 














13 


39 


• 


, 


5 


13 


35-39 
















13 


39 


, 


• 


5 


40-44 






, 












13 


38 


, 


• 


45-49 


















* 


12 


37 


• 


50-54 






















12 


36 


55-59 
























11 


60-64 
























• 


65-69 
























, 


70-74 
























• 


75-79 
























• 


80-84 
























, 


85-b9 
























• 


90-94 


























95 <S- over . 






















, 



122 



5 


14 


15 


10 


6 


7 


9 


10 


58 


72 


86 


96 


101 


107 


115 


123 



54 54 
1/ It is assumed that one-fourtn of tiie reduction in births occurs in 1944 and tnree-fourtcs in 1945. 



Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000 

Table 16 (eontlnued) 
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 



Total Females 

1945 1950 



}985 



1990 



1995 



3000 



117 



0-4 3 

5-9 

10-14 

1£-19 

20-24 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
b0-B4 
85-a9 
90-94 
95 & over 



Total 12 49 51 52 56 68 
Adjusted for underenumeration of cftildren ty census 



2 Z6 


, 


, 


4 


12 


14 


9 


6 


6 


8 


9 


15 


39 


• 


• 


4 


13 


14 


9 


6 


6 


9 




13 


38 


. 


. 


4 


13 


14 


9 


6 


6 






13 


38 


. 


, 


4 


13 


14 


9 


6 






• 


13 


38 


• 


• 


4 


13 


14 


9 










12 


38 
12 


38 
12 


37 
12 


4 

37 

12 


13 
4 

36 

12 

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 


K 

13 

4 

35 
11 

• 
• 

• 



0-4 
Total 



13 
13 



39 
51 



51 



52 



4 
56 



13 
69 



82 



14 
83 



91 



97 10? 110 118 



6 
97 



6 
103 



9 
111 



10 
119 



Np.tive White Males 

1945 1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



35 


, 


12 


37 


• 


12 



37 
12 



36 
12 



11 

4 



36 
12 



0-4 11 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-V9 
80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 

Total 11 47 49 49 ^^ 64 
Adjusted for uoderenu-Tieration of cWldren ty census 



0-4 
Total 



12 
12 



37 

49 



4 

53 



12 
64 



13 

12 

4 



36 
12 



77 



8 
14 
12 

4 



36 

1? 



86 



5 

9 

14 

12 

4 



35 
12 



91 



5 

5 

9 

14 

12 



35 
11 



96 



14 
73 



9 

86 



5 
91 



6 
96 



6 

5 

9 

14 

12 

4 



34 
11 



102 



8 
103 



9 
8 
6 
5 
9 

14 

12 

4 



33 
10 



110 



9 
110 



49 49 
1/ It is assumed tnat one-fourth of the reduction in births oc.urs in 1944 and three-fourths in 1945. 

536726 0-43-9 



118 



A'ntioual /{esourcex Planning Board 



Table 16 (continued) 

Native Vftiite Females 

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 



0-4 11 


33 


• 


• 


3 


11 


12 


8 


5 


5 


7 


8 


5-9 
10-14 
15-19 
20-24 


12 


35 
11 


35 
11 


• 

35 
11 


4 
35 


11 
4 


13 

11 

4 

• 


8 
13 
11 

4 


5 

8 

13 

11 


5 

5 

8 

13 


8 
5 
5 
8 


25-29 
30-34 
36-39 
40-44 
45-49 










11 


34 
11 


34 
11 

• 


• 

34 
11 


4 

34 
11 


11 
4 

33 


13 

11 

4 

• 
• 


50-54 














• 


• 




11 


32 


56-59 














• 


• 






10 


60-64 














• 


• 






• 


65-69 














• 


• 






• 


70-74 














• 


• 






• 


7.5-79 














• 


• 






• 


80-64 














• 


• 






• 


65-89 














• 


• 






• 


90-94 














• 


• 






• 


95 k over 














• 


• 






• 



Total 11 45 46 47 50 61 

Adjusted for underenumeration of ccildren ty census 



0-4 
Total 



12 
12 



35 
47 



74 



82 



87 



46 



47 



4 


11 


13 


8 


5 


5 


50 


62 


74 


82 


87 


92 



98 



99 



106 



9 
106 



Colored Male 
1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 ; 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 



Total 14 5 5 6 7 

Adjusted for underenumeration of cftildren by census 



0-4 1 

Total 1 



10 



1 
IQ 



11 



1 
II 



12 



1 

12 



13 



1 
13 



5 5 5 6 7 H 9 

1/ It is assumed tnat one-fourth of tlie reduction in births occurs in 1944 and three-fourths in 1945. 



IC'itimateK of Future PojinUtiinit of the I 'nited Statex, 19J,0-2000 

table 16 (continued) 

Colored Females 



1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



8000 



119 



0-4 1 


3 


• 




1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


5-9 


1 


4 




, 


1 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


10-14 




1 


4 


, 


, 


1 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


15-19 








4 


, 


, 


1 


2 


1 


1 


1 


20-24 








1 


4 


• 


• 


1 


2 


1 


1 


25-29 










1 


4 




• 


1 


2 


1 


50-34 












1 


3 


• 


, 


1 


2 


35-39 














1 


3 


, 


, 


1 


40-44 














, 


1 


3 


• 


* 


45-49 














• 


• 


1 


3 


• 


50-54 




















1 


3 


55-59 














, 


, 






1 


60-64 














• 


• 








65-69 














, 


• 








70-74 














• 


• 








75-79 














. 


. 








80-64 














• 


• 








85-89 














, 


, 








90-94 














, 


, 








95 & over. 
















, 









Total 14 5 5 6 7 

Adjusted for underenumeration of cuildren by census 



10 



0-4 
Total 



11 



12 



12 



1 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


6 


7 


8 


9 


10 


11 


12 


13 



15 5 5 

1/ It is assumed tliat one-fourtli of tne reduction In births occurs In 1944 and three-fourths in 1945. 



120 



National Resources Plavning Boarri 



Table 17 :-Deduotions to be Made from Future Population in Table 7 (Uediura Fertility Uedium Mortality; 
to Allow for the Deaths of 110,000 Males (100,000 white, 10,000 colored) in the Armed 
Services during 1943-44 and the Accompanying Decrease in the Birth Rate. 

(Thouseoids) 



Total Population, toth sexes 
1945 1950 1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 
50-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 



15 
33 

28 

18 

11 

4 

1 



33 



15 

32 
28 

18 
10 

4 



38 


30 


18 


16 


22 


26 


24 


20 


19 


20 


35 


41 


32 


19 


18 


24 


28 


26 


22 


20 


, 


35 


41 


32 


19 


18 


34 


28 


26 


23 


, 


, 


35 


41 


32 


19 


18 


24 


28 


26 


• 


• 


• 


35 


41 


32 


19 


17 


24 


28 


15 


• 


• 


• 


35 


40 


31 


18 


17 


24 


32 


15 


. 


« 


, 


34 


40 


31 


18 


17 


27 


31 


15 


, 


• 


, 


34 


40 


31 


18 


17 


27 


31 


14 


• 


. 


• 


34 


39 


30 


10 


17 


26 


SO 


14 


, 


, 


, 


33 


38 



50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 



10 
4 
1 



16 
9 

3 

1 



25 
15 



29 

34 

.14 

7 

2 



13 


• 


• 


, 


32 


27 


13 


• 


, 


• 


21 


24 


11 


, 


■ 


11 


18 


21 


10 


• 


5 


9 


14 


15 


7 


1 


3 


6 


9 


10 


, 


1 


2 


3 


5 


, 


• 


• 


1 


1 



Total 110 141 180 210 226 238 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



255 



273 



286 



292 



295 



299 



0-4 


. 


36 


41 


32 


19 


18 


24 


28 


26 


22 


20 


21 


Total 


110 


144 


183 


212 


227 


240 


257 


275 


288 


294 


297 


300 



Total Males 

1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-39 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 



15 

33 

28 
18 
11 

4 

1 



17 



15 

32 
28 
18 
10 
4 



20 


15 


9 


8 


11 


13 


12 


10 


10 


10 


18 


21 


16 


10 


9 


12 


14 


14 


11 


10 


. 


18 


21 


16 


10 


9 


12 


14 


12 


11 


• 


* 


18 


21 


16 


10 


9 


12 


14 


13 


• 


• 


• 


18 


21 


16 


10 


9 


12 


14 


15 


• 


, 


• 


18 


21 


16 


10 


9 


12 


33 


15 


• 


, 


, 


18 


20 


16 


9 


9 


28 


32 


14 


• 


• 


, 


17 


20 


16. 


9 


17 


27 


31 


14 


, 


• 


• 


17 


20 


16 


10 


17 


26 


30 


14 


• 


• 


• 


17 


20 



50-54 . 1 4 10 16 25 

55-59 . . 1 4 9 15 

60-64 ... 1 3 8 

65-69 .... 1 3 
TO -74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 

Total 110 125 144 158 165 169 
Adjusted for underenumeration of chlidren by census 



29 

24 

14 

7 

2 



13 
27 
21 
12 
5 



174 



178 



13 

24 

18 

9 

3 
1 



179 



11 
21 
14 

6 
2 



175 



10 
16 

9 

3 

1 



169 



16 



10 
5 

1 



164 



0-4 


. 


18 


21 


16 


10 


9 


12 


14 


14 


11 


10 


11 


Total 


110 


126 


• 145 


159 


165 


169 


175 


180 


160 


176 


170 


165 



Estitnates of Future ruimlatlon of Ih, Cuited Shitrs, inj,0-2000 

Table 17 (oontlnued) 

Total Female 

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



121 



2000 



0-4 
5-9 

10-14 
15-19 
20-24 

25-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 i over 

Total 

Adjusted f< 

0-4 

Total 



6 


19 


14 


9 


8 


11 


13 


1? 


in 


9 


10 




17 


SO 


16 


9 


9 


12 


14 


13 


11 


10 






17 


20 


16 


9 


9 


12 


14 


13 


11 








17 


30 


16 


9 


9 


12 


14 


13 








• 


17 


20 


16 


9 


8 


ir- 


14 












17 


20 

1? 


15 
20 
17 


9 
15 
19 
17 


8 

9 

15 

19 

16 


12 

B 

9 

15 

19 

16 


• 























16 36 52 61 70 
r uude re numeration of cnlldren by census 
16 9 9 



18 

18 



20 
36 



81 



94 



107 



117 



126 



135 



53 



62 



70 



12 


14 


13 


11 


10 


10 


82 


96 


108 


116 


127 


136 



Native Vfhite Males 

1945 1960 



1955 1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 


• 


15 


5-9 


• 


, 


10-14 


. 


• 


15-19 


14 


, 


20-24 


30 


14 


25-29 


26 


29 


30-34 


16 


25 


35-39 


10 


16 


40-44 


4 


10 


45-49 


1 


4 


50-54 




1 


55-59 






60-64 






65-69 






70-74 






75-79 






80-84 






85-39 






90-94 







17 

16 



14 
29 
25 
16 
9 

4 

1 



14 

19 
16 



13 
29 
25 

16 

9 
3 

1 



8 

15 
18 
15 



13 
28 
24 

15 

8 
3 

1 



7 
9 

14 
18 
15 



13 
28 

23 

14 



Total 100 113 130 143 149 152 
Adjusted for underenumeration of cnildren by census 



10 

8 

9 

14 

18 

15 



13 

27 

22 

13 

6 

2 



156 



18 

IQ 

8 

9 

14 

18 
15 



12 
25 
20 
11 
5 



160 



11 
13 
10 



14 

18 
15 



12 
23 

17 
8 

3 
1 



161 



9 
12 
13 
10 

8 

8 
14 
18 
15 



10 
19 
13 

5 
2 



156 



8 
10 
12 
12 

10 



14 

18 
14 



9 
15 

8 
3 



150 



9 

9 

10 

12 

12 

10 
7 
8 

14 

17 

14 



10 
4 

1 



144 



0-4 
Total 



100 



16 


19 


15 


9 


8 


10 


13 


12 


10 


9 


9 


114 


131 


144 


150 


153 


157 


161 


161 


157 


151 


145 



122 



National Resources Plannmg BoanI 



Table 17 Uontinued) 



Native 


Wnite Females 




1945 1950 


0-4 


14 


5-9 




10-14 




15-19 




20-24 




25-29 




30-34 




S5-S9 




40-44 




45-49 





1955 



1960 



50-54 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



17 


13 


8 


7 


9 


11 


11 


9 


8 


8 


15 


18 


14 


8 


7 


10 


12 


11 


9 


e 




15 


18 


14 


8 


7 


10 


12 


11 


9 




• 


15 


17 


14 


8 


7 


10 


12 


11 




• 


• 


15 


17 


14 


8 


7 


10 


12 




, 






15 


17 


14 


8 


7 


10 




• 






, 


15 


17 


14 


8 


7 




. 






. 


. 


14 


17 


14 


8 




. 






• 


. 


• 


14 


17 


13 


• 


• 
• 




• 


• 


• 
• 


• 
• 


• 


14 


17 
14 



Total . 14 32 46 54 .61 

Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



71 



82 



93 



102 



110 



118 



0-4 
Total 



15 
15 



18 

3o 



14 
46 



54 



7 


10 


12 


11 


9 


8 


9 


62 


71 


63 


94 


103 


110 


118 



Colored Mai 


es 
























1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1? 


0-4 


• 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


5-9 


• 


• 


2 


2 


2 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


10-14 


• 


• 


• 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


2 


15-19 


1 


, 


, 


, 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


20-24 


3 


1 


• ' 


• 


• 


2 


2 


< 


1 


1 


2 


25-29 


3 


3 


1 


. 


, 


• 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


30-34 


2 


2 


3 


1 


, 


• 


. 


2 


2 


2 


1 


35-39 


1 


2 


2 


3 


1 


, 


, 


, 


2 


2 


2 


40-44 


, 


1 


1 


2 


3 


1 


• 


• 


. 


2 


2 


45-49 






• 


1 


1 


2 


s 


1 


• 


• 


• 


2 


50-54 










1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


* 


, 


, 


55-59 




» 






• 


1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


• 


. 


60-64 


• 








, 


• 


1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


• 


65-69 










• 


, 


, 


• 


1 


1 


1 


1 


70-74 










, 


, 


, 


, 


, 


1 


1 


1 



2000 



75-79 



Total 10 12 14 15 16 16 

Adjusted for underenumeration of calldren by census 



17 



18 



19 



19 



19 



19 



0-4 


• 


2 


2 


2 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


Total 


10 


12 


14 


15 


16 


17 


18 


18 


19 


19 


19 


20 



EntimatfK ol Future /'opiildtloii of till r II Itnl Stairs, W.',0~2000 

Table 17 (oontinued) 



Colored 


Females 


























1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1995 


Zi 


0-4 




2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


X 


5-9 






2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


10-14 








2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


15-19 










2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


2 


20-24 










• 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


25-29 






, 




. 


, 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


30-34 










, 


, 


, 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


55-59 










, 


, 


, 


, 


2 


2 


2 


1 


40-44 










, 


• 


* 


• 


a 


2 


2 


2 


45-49 










• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


2 


2 


50-54 










, 


. 


• 


• 


• 


• 


, 


2 


55-59 










• 


• 


• 


• 


• 


. 


. 


. 



Total .2 5 6 7 9 

Adjusted for imderenumeration of children by census 



10 



12 



14 



15 



16 



18 



0-4 


• 


3 


2 


2 


1 


1 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


Total 


» 


3 


5 


7 


8 


9 


11 


12 


14 


15 


17 


18 



123 



124 



National liixourccs I'lnmiiiKj Jiaunl 



Table 19 :-Deduotions to be Made from Futures Population in Table 11 (Low Fertility Medium Mortality) tc 
Allow for 110,000 Fewer Births (100,000 white, 10,000 colored) during 1944-45.V 

(Thousands) 



Total population, both sexes 
1945 1950 1955 



1960 



1965 1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 1990 



1995 



3000 



22 
3 

1 



26 



a4 
23 



78 
25 



12 

26 

25 

8 

1 



77 
25 



7 
14 
26 
23 

8 . 



76 
25 



0-4 24 74 . 1 7 

5-9 , 26 79 , 1 

10-14 . . 26 79 

15-19 . . . 26 78 

20-24 .... 26 

25-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
♦65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 

Total 24 100 105 105 112 134 159 173 180 
Adjusted for underenumeratlon of children by census 



9 

8 

14 

26 

23 

8 

1 

75 
24 



188 



13 

9 

8 

14 

26 

23 
8 
1 

74 

24 



199 



13 

14 

9 

8 

14 

26 

23 

8 

1 



71 
22 



209 



0-4 

Total 



26 

26 



79 

105 



105 



1 


8 


24 


26 


14 


8 


9 


14 


14 


105 


113 


136 


161 


174 


181 


1S9 


200 


210 



Total Males 

1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 12 37 

5-9 . 13 40 
10-14 . . 13 
15-19 
20-24 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 

Total 12 51 5 

Adjusted for underenxunerat 



40 
13 



40 
13 



11 
4 



40 
13 



54 57 68 

ion of cliildren by census 



0-4 
Total 



14 
14 



'iO 
54 



12 
12 

4 



40 
13 



31 



7 
13 
12 

4 



88 



4 
7 

13 

12 

4 



92 



4 
4 

7 

13 
12 



96 



12 

4 



101 



7 
7 

5 
4 
7 

13 
12 



. 


13 


39 




, 


4 






13 


38 
12 


37 
12 


36 
11 



106 



4 


12 


13 


7 


4 


5 


7 


7 


58 


69 


82 


89 


92 


96 


102 


107 



54 54 

1/ It is assumed ttet one-fom-th of tne reduction in births occurs in 1944 and three-fourths in 1945. 



Estimate/) of Future Population of the I'nited States, 19/^0-2000 

Table 13 (continued) 
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 



.Total Females 
1945 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



1.25 



0-4 12 36 . . 4 11 

5-9 , 13 39 . .4 

10-14 . . 13 38 

15-19 . , . 13 38 

20-24 . . . . 15 38 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-99 
90-94 
95 Sc over 

Total 12 49 51 52 55 66 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children ty census 



0-4 
Total 



13 

13 



39 
51 



12 

11 

4 



38 
12 



78 



6 
12 
11 

4 



38 
12 



85 



4 

7 

12 

11 

4 



37 

12 



88 



4 

4 

7 

12 

11 



37 
12 



92 



6 
5 
4 
7 

12 

11 

4 



36 
12 



98 



6 
6 

5 
4 
7 

12 

11 

4 



35 
11 



103 



51 



52 



4 


12 


13 


7 


4 


5 


6 


7 


55 


67 


79 


85 


88 


92 


98 


103 



Native White Males 

1945 1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



-2000 



0-4 11 


35 


« 




3 


10 


11 


6 


3 


4 


6 


6 


5-9 


12 


37 




, 


3 


11 


12 


6 


3 


4 


6 


10-14 




12 


37 


, 


, 


3 


10 


12 


6 


3 


4 


15-19 






12 


36 


, 


• 


3 


10 


12 


6 


3 


20-24 








12 


36 


• 


• 


3 


10 


12 


6 


25-29 










12 


36 


• 


• 


3 


10 


12 


30-34 












12 


36 




« 


3 


10 


35-39 














12 


35 


• 


• 


3 


40-44 














, 


12 


35 






45-49 














• 


• 


11 


34 


. 


50-54 
















• 




11 


33 


55-59 














• 


• 






10 


60-64 
























65-69 
























70-74 














• 


. 








75-79 




















- 




80-84 
























85-89 
























90-94 
























95 & over . 












. 


. 


a 









Total 11 47 49 49 52 62 
Adjusted lor underenumeration of cflildren by census 



73 



80 



83 



0-4 
Total 



12 
12 



37 

49 



86 



91 



95 



3 


11 


12 


7 


4 


4 


6 


6 


52 


62 


74 


80 


83 


87 


91 


96 



49 49 
l_l It is assumed that one-fourth of the reduction in births occurs in 1944 and three-fourths in 1945. 



\2{) 



Native White Females 
1945 1950 



Table IB (continued) 
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 



Xaliiinal /ifNoiircfs I'lanninq Board 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 11 


33 




, 


3 


9 


11 


6 


3 


4 


5 


6 


5-9 


12 


E5 


, 


, 


3 


10 


11 


6 


3 


4 


6 


10-14 




IX 


25 


• 


• 


3 


10 


11 


6 


3 


4 


15-19 






11 


35 


. 


• 


3 


10 


11 


6 


3 


20-24 






• 


11 


35 


• 


• 


3 


10 


11 


6 


25-29 






. 




11 


34 


, 


• 


3 


10 


11 


SO-34 






* 




. 


11 


34 


. 


• 


5 


10 


35-39 






, 




. 


• 


11 


34 


. 


. 


3 


40-44 






• 




. 


. 


• 


11 


34 


. 


. 


45-49 






• 




• 


• 


* 


• 


11 


33 


• 


50-54 






^ 




• 


, 


, 


, 


^ 


11 


3? 


55-59 






, 




. 


, 


. 


• 


• 


. 


10 



Total 11 45 46 47 50 59 

Adjusted for underemimeration of children by census 



0-4 
Total 



12 
12 



35 
47 



46 



47 



3 

50 



10 
60 



70 



11 
71 



76 



6 
76 



79 



79 



83 



4 
83 



87' 



92 



6 
92 



Colored Males 

1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 1 3 . . 1 

5-9.13.. 
10-14 ..13. 

15-19 ... 1 3 

20-24 .... 1 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
60-84 
85-69 
90-94 
95 & over 



Total 14 5 5 5 7 

Adjusted for underenumeratlon of children by census 



0-4 1 

Total 1 



10 



1 
10 



10 



1 

10 



11 



1 
11 



55567899 
1/ It is assuned that one-fourth of the reduction in births occurs in 1944 and t hree-f ourths in 1945. 



Ktiimnte-' of Fiitiirt- Popiilafion of the I'lnted Sfntes, 1.940 £000 

Table 18 (oontlnued) 

'^.olored Pemale 

1945 1950 195E 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 



127 



0-4 


1 


3 


• 


1 


1 


1 


1 


, 


1 


1 


1 


5-9 




1 4 


• 


. 


1 


1 


1 


1 


. 


1 


1 


lP-14 






4 


, 


• 


1 


1 


1 


1 


• 


1 


15-19 






1 


4 


« 


. 


1 


1 


1 


1 


. 


20-24 






• 


1 


4 


• 


• 


1 


1 


1 


1 


25-29 






. 


, 


1 


4 


, 


• 


1 


1 


1 


30-34 






, 


• 


• 


1 


z 


m 


• 


1 


1 


35-39 






• 


. 


. 




1 


3 


. 


. 


1 


40-44 






, 


. 


. 




• 


1 


3 


. 


• 


45-49 






• 


• 


• 




• 


• 


1 


3 


• 


50-54 






. 


. 


. 




• 


• 


• 


1 


3 


55-59 






• 


• 


• 




• 


• 


• 


• 


1 


Total 


1 


4 5 


5 


5 


7 


6 


8 


9 


10 


10 


11 


Adjusted 


for 


imderenumeration 


of cnildr 


en by 


census 














0-4 


1 


4 


• 


1 


1 


1 


1 




1 


1 


1 


Total 


1 


5 5 


5 


6 


7 


a 


9 


9 


10 


10 


11 



1/ It is assuaed taet one-fourth of tne reduction in births occurs in 1944 and tarefi-f ourtKs in 1945. 



128 



Nafioiial licKDurccK I'laiiiiiiig Board 



Table 19 :-Doduction3 to be Made from Future Population in Table 11 (Low Fertility Medium Mortality) to 
Allow for the Deaths of 110,000 Males (100,000 white, 10,000 colored) in the Armed 
Services during 1943-1944 and the Accompanying Decrease in the Birth Rate. 

(Thousands) 



Total population, both sexes 
1945 1950 1955 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 


. 


32 


35 


26 


14 


13 


18 


20 


17 


13 


12 


12 


5-9 


. 


. 


34 


37 


28 


15 


14 


20 


22 


19 


14 


12 


10-14 


. 


• 


. 


34 


37 


28 


15 


14 


19 


22 


18 


14 


15-19 


15 


. 


. 


. 


34 


37 


28 


15 


14 


19 


21 


18 


20-24 


33 


15 


• 


• 


• 


33 


37 


28 


15 


14 


19 


21 


25-29 


28 


32 


15 


, 


. 


• 


33 


37 


27 


15 


13 


19 


30-S4 


18 


28 


32 


15 


, 


, 


, 


33 


36 


27 


15 


13 


35-39 


11 


18 


28 


31 


14 


, 


, 


, 


33 


36 


27 


14 


40-44 


4 


10 


17 


27 


31 


14 


, 


, 


, 


32 


36 


27 


45-49 


1 


4 


10 


17 


26 


30 


14 


• 


• 


• 


32 


35 


50-54 




1 


4 


10 


16 


25 


29 


13 


. 




. 


31 


55-59 






1 


4 


9 


15 


24 


27 


13 


, 


, 


, 


60-64 






• 


1 


3 


8 


14 


21 


24 


11 


, 


, 


65-69 






, 


, 


1 


3 


7 


11 


18 


21 


10 


, 


70-74 






• 


• 


• 


• 


2 


5 


9 


14 


16 


7 


75-79 






^ 


. 








1 


3 


6 


9 


10 


80-64 






, 


• 








, 


1 


2 


3 


5 


85-89 






, 


• 








, 


, 


. 


1 


1 


90-94 






• 


, 








. 


. 


. 




, 


95 & over . 




• 


. 








, 


, 


, 


, 


, 



Total 110 140 175 201 213 222 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children ty census 



234 



246 



251 



250 



245 



241 



0-4 


. 


34 


38 


28 


15 


14 


20 


22 


19 


14 


13 


13 


Total 


110 


142 


178 


203 


214 


223 


235 


247 


252 


251 


246 


242 



Total 


Males 


























1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1995 


20C 


0-4 




16 


18 


13 


7 


6 


9 


10 


9 


7 


6 


6 


5-9 


, 


, 


17 


19 


14 


8 


7 


10 


11 


9 


7 


6 


10-14 


, 


g 


, 


17 


19 


14 


8 


7 


10 


11 


9 


7 


15-19 


15 


, 


, 


, 


17 


19 


14 


H 


7 


10 


11 


9 


20-24 


33 


15 


• 


• 


• 


17 


19 


14 


8 


7 


10 


11 


25-29 


28 


32 


15 






• 


17 


19 


14 


8 


7 


10 


30-34 


18 


28 


32 


15 


, 


. 


, 


17 


18 


14 


8 


7 


35-39 


11 


18 


28 


31 


14 


, 


, 


, 


16 


18 


14 


7 


40-44 


4 


10 


17 


27 


31 


14 


, 


. 


. 


16 


18 


14 


45-49 


1 


4 


10 


17 


26 


30 


14 


• 


• 


• 


16 


18 


50-54 




1 


4 


10 


16' 


25 


29 


13 


, 


^ 


, 


15 


55-59 






1 


4 


9 


15 


24 


27 


13 


, 


, 


• 


60-64 






, 


1 


3 


8 


14 


21 


24 


11 


• 


. 


65-69 






, 


, 


1 


3 


7 


11 


18 


21 


10 


. 


70-74 






• 


• 


• 


• 


2 


5 


9 


14 


16 


7 


75-79 






, 


^ 








1 


3 


6 


9 


10 


80-84 






, 


, 








, 


1 


n 


3 


5 


85-89 






• 


• 








, 


, 


• 


1 


1 


90-94 






• 


, 








, 


• 


, 


, 


, 


95 & over . 




• 


, 








a 


. 


, 


, 


. 



Total 110 124 141 153 156 160 
Adjusted for underenu-iierrtion of children by census 



163 



164 



161 



153 



143 



134 



0-4 


• 


17 


19 


14 


8 


7 


10 


11 


10 


7 


6 


7 


Total 


110 


126 


143 


154 


158 


161 


164 


165 


162 


154 


144 


134 



Estimate ■'< of Future Population of the Cnited States, 19.',0-200(l 

Table 19 (continued) 

Total Female 

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 



1985 



1990 



1995 



2000 



129 



13 
lb 
17 



7 

14 
18 
16 



6 

7 

14 

18 

16 



0-4 . 16 17 

5-9 . . 17 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 
80-84 
85-S9 
90-94 
95 & over 



Total . 16 34 48 55 gg 
Adjusted for underenumeration of cnildren by census 



0-4 
Total 



17 

17 



18 
35 



14 
49 



56 



7 

62 



9 

7 

7 

14 

18 

16 



71 



10 
73 



10 

10 

7 

7 

14 

18 
16 



81 



11 



9 

10 

10 

7 

7 

13 
18 
16 



90 



91 



6 

9 

10 

10 

7 

7 
15 
18 
16 



96 



7 
97 



6 

7 

9 

10 

10 

7 

7 

13 

18 

16 



102 



6 
6 
7 

9 

10 

9 
6 
7 

13 
17 

15 



107 



6 6 
102 108 



Native 


Wnite 


Males 
























1945 


1950 


1955 


1960 


1965 


1970 


1975 


1980 


1985 


1990 


1995 


20 


0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 


14 

30 


14 
14 


16 

la 


12 
17 

15 

• 


6 
13 
17 

15 

• 


6 

7 

13 

17 

15 


8 

6 

7 

13 

17 


9 
8 
6 
7 

13 


8 
10 
8 
6 
7 


6 
8 
10 
8 
6 


5 
6 
8 
10 
8 


6 
5 
6 
8 
10 


25-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 


26 
16 
10 

4 

1 


29 
25 
16 
10 
4 


14 
29 
25 
16 
9 


13 
29 
25 
15 


13 
28 
24 


• 
• 

13 
28 


14 

* 
• 

13 


17 

14 


13 

16 
14 

■ 


7 

13 
16 
14 

• 


6 

7 

12 

16 

14 


8 

6 

7 

12 

16 


50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 


• 


1 


4 

1 

• 


9 

3 
1 


15 
8 
3 

1 


23 

14 

7 

2 


27 

22 

13 

6 


12 

25 
20 
11 


12 
23 
17 


11 
19 


• 
• 

9 


13 

• 
• 








* 


• 


* 


• 


2 


5 


8 


13 


15 


7 


75-79 


























80-84 






' 


• 


• 


• 


• 


1 


3 


5 


8 


10 


85-89 






1 


* 


• 


• 


• 


• 


1 


2 


3 


4 


90-94 


, 








■ 


• 


' 


• 


• 


• 


1 


1 



Total 100 113 128 139 143 145 
Adjusted for underenumeration of children by census 



0-4 
Total 



100 



15 
114 



17 
129 



13 
140 



7 
144 



6 
145 



147 



8 
148 



148 



10 
149 



145 



8 
146 



138 



6 
138 



128 



6 
128 



119 



6 
120 



130 



Xational /iixtniiccs /'/aiininc/ Board 



Table 19 (continued) 



Native White Females 
1945 1950 



1955 196() 



1965 



1970 



197E 



1980 



19e£ 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 


13 


15 


12 


6 


5 


8 


9 


8 


6 


5 


5 


5-9 




14 


16 


12 


7 


6 


8 


9 


a 


6 


5 


10-14 






14 


16 


12 


7 


6 


8 


9 


e 


6 


15-19 








14 


16 


12 


7 


6 


8 


9 


8 


20-24 








• 


14 


16 


12 


6 


6 


8 


9 


25-29 












14 


16 


12 


6 


6 


8 


30-34 














14 


16 


12 


6 


6 


55-39 
















14 


16 


12 


6 


40-44 


















14 


16 


la 


45-49 


















• 


14 


15 


50-54 






















13 


55-59 
























60-64 
























65-69 


, 




, 


















70-74 
























75-79 
























80-84 


, 






















b5->39 
























90-94 
























95 and over. 

























Total .14 30 42 49 54 

Adjusted for underenumerstlon of chilc^jen by census 



62 



0-4 


• 


14 


16 


12 


7 


6 


Total 


. 


14 


30 


43 


49 


55 



71 



9 
72 



79 



79 



84 



85 



89 



5 
90 



94 



7 

94 



Colored Males 
1945 



1950 



195S 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



19S5 



1990 



1995 



2000 



0-4 

5-9 

10-14 

15-19 

20-24 

25-29 
50-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 

75-79 

80-84 
65-69 
90-94 
95 & over 



1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 




2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 




2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 




. 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 




• 


• 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 




• 


. 


. 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 




1 


, 


, 


, 


2 


2 


1 


1 




3 


1 


, 


• 


, 


2 


2 


1 




2 


3 


1 


. 


. 


. 


2 


2 




1 


2 


2 


1 


. 


• 


• 


2 


2 



Total 10 12 13 14 15 15 

Adjusted for under enumeration of cnildren by census 



16 



16 



16 



16 



15 



15 



0-4 


. 


2 


2 


2 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


Total 


10 


12 


14 


15 


15 


15 


16 


16 


16 


16 


15 


15 



Estimates of Future Population of the I'nlted States, 1940-2000 

Table 19 (oontinued) 
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 



Colored Female 

1945 1950 



1980 1985 



1990 



1995 2000 



131 



0-4 

5-9 

10-14 
15-19 
20-24 

25-29 

30-3'l 
35-39 
40-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-64 
65-69 
70-74 
75-79 

80-84 
85-89 
90-94 
95 & over 

Total 
Adjusted 

0-4 

Total 



2 4 6 7 8 
for underemuneration of children by census 



10 



1 
10 



1 

11 



12 



1 

12 



13 



1 
13 



13 



1 
13 



132 Xdtional /I'fNdv rce.f Planning Board 

Table 20: Percent Dlstritution ty 5- Year Age Periods, for the Total 
Population of the United States, 1900-2000. 

(Computed without adjustment for the underenumeration of children) 

A. Total - Population - Estimates based on Medium Mortelity 









High Fertility 




Medium 


Fertility 


Low : 


Fertility 




Age 


1900 


1940 


1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


0-4 


12.1 


8.0 


7.7 


7.7 


7.6 


7.0 


6.4 


5.9 


6.3 


5. J 


4.4 


5-9 


11.7 


8.1 


8.4 


k\ 


8.0 


7.8 


7.1 


6.5 


7.2 


6.0 


5.0 


10-14 


10.6 


8.9 


8.5 


7.8 


8.3 


7.2 


6.6 


8.0 


6.3 


5.3 


15-19 


9.9 


9.4 


8.3 


7.5 


7.6 


8.4 


7.0 


6.7 


8.4 


6.5 


5.7 


20-24 


9.7 


8.8 


7.2 


7.3 


7.5 


7.4 


7.0 


6.9 


7.5 


6.6 


6.1 


25-29 


8.6 


8.4 


6.8 


7.3 


7.3 


6.9 


7.2 


7.1 


7.1 


7.0 


6.6 


30-34 


7.3 


7.8 


7.4 


7.4 


7.0 


7.5 


7.6 


7.1 


7.7 


7.8 


6.9 


35-39 


6.5 


7.2 


7.6 


7.1 


6.7 


7.8 


7.6 


6.9 


8.0 


8.1 


7.0 


40-44 


5.6 


6.7 


7.1 


6.2 


6.4 


7.3 


6.7 


6.8 


7.4 


7.2 


7.1 


45-49 


4.5 


6.3 


6.7 


5.7 


6.4 


6.8 


6.2 


6.9 


7.0 


6.7 


7.4 


50-54 


3.9 


5.5 


6.0 


6.0 


6.3 


6.1 


6.5 


7.1 


6.2 


7.1 


8.1 


55-59 


2.9 


4.4 


5.2 


6.0 


5.8 


5.3 


6.5 


6.8 


5.5 


7.0 


8.0 


60-64 


2.4 


3.6 


4.4 


5.1 


4.6 


4.5 


5.6 


5.5 


4.6 


6.0 


6.6 


65-69 


1.7 


2.9 


3.6 


4.2 


3.7 


3.7 


4.6 


4.5 


3.8 


4.9 


5.3 


70-74 


1.2 


2.0 


2.6 


3.1 


3.2 


2.6 


3.3 


3.9 


2.7 


3.6 


4.6 


75-79 


.7 


1.1 


1.6 


1.9 


2.3 


1.6 


2.1 


2.8 


1.6 


2.3 


3.3 


80-84 


.3 


.6 


.8 


1.0 


1.2 


.8 


1.1 


1.4 


.8 


1.2 


1.7 


85-89 


.1 


.2 


.3 


.4 


.5 


.3 


.4 


.6 


,3 


.4 


.7 


90-94 


- 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.2 


95 & over 


- 


- 


.0 


.0 


.0 


.0 


.0 


.0 


.0 


.0 


.0 



Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 



B. Male Ponulptlon - Sstimates based on Medium Mortality 

High Fertility Medium Fertility Low Fertility 



Age 


1900 


0-4 


11.9 


5-9 


11.5 


10-14 


10.5 


15-19 


9.7 


20-24 


9.3 


25-29 


8.6 


30-34 


7.5 


35-39 


6.7 


40-44 


5.8 


45-49 


4.7 


50-54 


4.0 


55-59 


3.0 


60-64 


2.4 


65-69 


1.7 


70-74 


1.2 


75-79 


.7 


80-84 


.3 


85-89 


.1 


90-94 


- 


95 & over 



1940 

8.1 

8.2 

9.0 

9.4 

8.6 

8.3 
7.7 
7.2 
6.7 

6.4 

5.7 
4.6 
3.6 
2.9 
1.9 

1.1 
.5 
.2 



1960 


1980 


2000 


7.9 


7.9 


7.7 


8.6 


8.4 


8.1 


8.7 


8.1 


7.9 


8.5 


7.7 


7.7 


7.4 


7.5 


7.6 


6.9 


7.5 


7.5 


7.5 


7.5 


7.2 


7.7 


7.3 


6.8 


7.0 


6.2 


6.5 


6.5 


5.7 


6.4 


5.8 


6.0 


6.3 


5.1 


5.9 


5.7 


4.2 


4.9 


4.5 


3.5 


3.9 


3.6 


2.5 


2.8 


3.0 


1.4 


1.7 


2.0 


.7 


.8 


1.0 


.2 


.3 


.4 


.1 


.1 


.1 



1960 


1980 


2000 


7.1 


6.5 


6.1 


8.0 


7.3 


6.7 


8.5 


7.3 


6.7 


8.6 


7.2 


6.8 


7.5 


7.2 


7.0 


7.0 


7.4 


7.2 


7.6 


7.8 


7.2 


7.8 


7.8 


7.0 


7.1 


6.8 


6.9 


6.7 


6.2 


7.0 


6.0 


6.6 


7.2 


5.2 


6.4 


6.8 


4.3 


5.3 


5.4 


3.5 


4.2 


4.3 


2.5 


3.0 


3.6 


1.4 


1.8 


2.4 


.7 


.9 


1.2 


.2 


.3 


.4 


.1 


.1 


.1 



1960 


1980 


2000 


^.4 


5.3 


4.5 


7.4 


6.2 


5.2 


8.3 


6.5 


5.5 


8.6 


6.7 


5.8 


7.7 


6.8 


6.? 


7.2 


7.2 


6.8 


7.8 


8.0 


7.1 


8.0 


8.3 


7.2 


7.3 


7.3 


7.3 


6.8 


6.7 


7.6 


6.1 


7.1 


8.2 


5.3 


6.9 


8.0 


4.4 


5.7 


6.5 


3.6 


4.6 


5.1 


2.6 


3.2 


4.3 


1.5 


2.0 


2.9 


.7 


1.0 


1.4 


.3 


.4 


.5 


.1 


.1 


.1 



Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 



ExHmatey of Future Population of th( I'nited States, 1940-2000 



133 



Tatle 20: Percent Distribution ty 5-YeaT Age Periods, for the Total 
Population of the United States, 1900-3000. 



C. Temale Population - Bstlmates based on Medium Mortality 



Age 



1900 



0-4 


12.2 


5-9 


11.8 


10-14 


10.8 


15-19 


10.2 


20-24 


10.0 


25-29 


8.6 


30-34 


7.1 


35-39 


6.3 


40-44 


5.4 


45-49 


4.3 


50-54 


3.7 


55-59 


2.9 


60-64 


2.4 


65-69 


1.7 


70-74 


1.2 


75-79 


.7 


80-84 


-.3 


85-89 


.1 


90-94 


- 


95 & over 


- 



1940 

7.9 

8.0 
8.8 



8.6 
7.9 
7.3 
6.7 
6.2 

5.3 
4.3 
3.6 
2.9 
2.0 

1.2 
.6 
.2 
.1 



High 


Fertility 




1960 


1980 


2000 


7.5 


7.6 


7.5 


8.2 


7.9 


7.8 


8.3 


7.7 


7.6 


8.1 


7.3 


7.5 


7.1 


7.x 


7.4 


6.7 


7.2 


7.2 


7.3 


7.2 


6.9 


7.6 


7.0 


6.6 


7.2 


6.1 


6.3 


6.8 


5.6 


6.3 


6.1 


6.0 


6.2 


5.4 


6.1 


5.8 


4.5 


5.4 


4.7 


3.7 


4.5 


3.9 


2.7 


3.4 


3.5 


1.6 


2.2 


2.6 


.9 


1.2 


1.5 


.3 


.5 


.6 


.1 


.1 


.1 



Medium 


Fertility 


low Fertility 




1960 


1980 


eooo 


1960 


1980 


2000 


6.8 


6.2 


5.8 


6.1 


5.0 


4.3 


7.6 • 


6.9 


6.4 


7.0 


5.8 


4.9 


8.0 


7.0 


6.4 


7.8 


6.2 


5.2 


8.2 


6.8 


6.5 


8.? 


6.3 


5.6 


7.2 


6.8 


6.7 


7.4 


6.5 


5.9 


6.8 


7.0 


6.9 


6.9 


6.9 


6.4 


7.4 


7.4 


6.9 


7.6 


7.6 


6.7 


7.8 


7.5 


6.8 


8.0 


8.0 


5.9 


7.4 


6.5 


6.7 


7.5 


7.1 


7.0 


7.0 


6.1 


6.8 


7.1 


6.6 


7.3 


6.2 


6.5 


7.0 


6.3 


7.0 


8.0 


5.5 


6.6 


6.8 


5.6 


7.1 


8.0 


4.6 


5.8 


5.6 


4.7 


6.3 


6.6 


3.8 


4.9 


4.6 


3.9 


5.3 


5.5 


2.8 


3.6 


4.1 


2.8 


3.9 


4.9 


1.7 


2.4 


3.1 


1.7 


2.6 


3.7 


.9 


1.3 


1.7 


.9 


1.4 


2.1 


.3 


.5 


.7 


.4 


.5 


.8 


.1 


.1 


.2 


.1 


.1 


.2 



Total 



100.0 



100.0 



100. 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



5367?6 O - 43 - 10 



134 



National Hemurces Planning Board 



Table 21: Percent Distribution by S-Year Age Periods,, for tfte Native ^Vhlte 
Population of tne United States, 1900-2000. 

(Computed without adjustment for the underenumeretlon of children) 
A. Total Population - Estimates based on Kedlum Mortality 









High Fertility 




Medium Fertility 


low : 


Fertility 




Age 


1900 


1940 


•1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


I960 


1980 


2000 


0-4 

5-9 


13,9 
13.2 


8.7 
8.7 


7.8 
8.5 


7.6 
7.9- 


7.4 

7.7 


7.1 
7.9 


6.3 
6.9 


5.8 
6.3 


6.4 
7.3 


5.1 
5.9 


4.3 
4.9 


10-14 


11.7 


9.6 


8.6 


7.7 


7.5 


8.4 


7.0 


6.4 


8.2 


6.2 


5.2 


15-19 


10.6 


10.1 


8.4 


7.3 


7.4 


8.5 


6.9 


6.5 


8.6 


6.3 


5.5 


20-24 


9.6 


9.5 


7.4 


7.2 


7.4 


7.5 


6.9 


6.7 


7.7 


6.5 


6.0 


25-29 


8.2 


8.9 


7.0 


7.3 


7.2 


7.1 


7,2 


6.9 


7.3 


7.0 


6.5 


30-34 


6.8 


b.O 


7.6 


7.4 


7.0 


7.8 


7.6 


7.0 


8.0 


7.8 


6.8 


35-39 


5.8 


7.0 


7.9 


7.2 


6.6 


8.1 


7.7 


6.8 


8.3 


8.2 


6.9 


40-44 


5.1 


6.2 


7.4 


6.2 


6.4 


7.5 


6.7 


6.8 


7.7 


7.2 


7.1 


45-49 


4.0 


5.6 


6.8 


5.8 


6.5 


6.9 


6.3 


7.0 


7.1 


6.8 


7.5 


50-54 


3.2 


4.8 


5.9 


6.2 


6.4 


6.0 


6.7 


7.2 


6.2 


7.3 


8.2 


55-59 


2.4 


S.8 


4.9 


6,2 


6.0 


5.0 


6.7 


7.0 


5.1 


7.2 


8.2 


60-64 


1.9 


3.1 


4.0 


5.3 


4.8 


4.1 


6.8 


5.7 


4.2 


6.2 


6.7 


65-69 


1.4 


2.5 


3.2 


4.3 


3.9 


3.3 


4.7 


4.7 


3.4 


5.0 


5.5 


70-74 


.9 


1.7 


2.2 


3.1 


3.4 


2,3 


3.3 


4.1 


2.3 


3.6 


4.8 


75-79 


.6 


1.0 


1.3 


1.8 


2.5 


1.3 


2.0 


2,9 


1.4 


2.1 


3.5 


80-84 


.3 


.5 


.7 


.9 


1.3 


.7 


1.0 


1.5 


.7 


1.1 


1.8 


85-89 


.1 


.2 


.2 


.3 


.5 


.2 


.4 


.6 


.3 


.4 


.7 


90-94 






.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


95 i over 


- 


^ 


- 


- 


- 


- 


— 


" 


■■ 


^ 


" 



Total 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



VsXe Fonulation - Estimates based on "edlujn Mortality 



A^e 



1900 



1940 



0_4 


13.9 


8.8 


5-9 


13.2 


8.9 


lO-l-i 


11.7 


9.8 


15-19 


10.4 


1C.2 


20-24 


9.4 


9.4 


25-29 


8.2 


8.8 


30-54 


6.8 


7.9 


35-39 


5.9 


7.0 


40-44 


5.2 


6.2 


45-49 


4.1 


5.7 


50-54 


3.3 


4.8 


55-59 


2.4 


5.8 


60-64 


1.9 


5.1 


65-69 


1.4 


2.5 


70-74 


.9 


1.6 


75-79 


.5 


.9 


80-84 


.3 


.5 


85-89 


.1 


.2 


90-94 


- 


- 


95 & over 


- 


- 



Kign Fertility 




1960 


1980 


2000 


8.0 


7.7 


7.5 


8.7 


8.1 


7.8 


8.9 


7.9 


7.7 


8.6 


7.5 


7.6 


7.5 


7.4 


7.5 


7.1 


7.5 


7.4 


7.8 


7.6 


7.1 


8.0 


7.3 


6.7 


7.3 


6.3 


6.5 


6.7 


5.9 


6.6 


5.8 


6.2 


6.4 


4.8 


6.1 


5.9 


3.9 


5.1 


4.7 


3.0 


4.0 


3.8 


2.0 


2.8 


3.2 


1.2 


1.6 


2.1 


.5 


.7 


1.0 


.2 


.3 


.4 


._ 


.1 


.1 



Medium 


Fertility 


Low : 


Fertility 




196C 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1960 


2000 


7.3 


6.5 


6.0 


6.5 


5.2 


4.4 


8.1 


7.1 


6.5 


7,5 


6.1 


5.0 


8.6 


7,2 


6.5 


8.4 


6.4 


5.3 


8.7 


7.1 


6.7 


8.8 


6.5 


5.7 


7,7 


7.1 


6.9 


7.9 


6,7 


6.1 


7.2 


7.4' 


7.1 


7.4 


7.2 


6.6 


7.9 


7.8 


7.1 


8.1 


8.0 


7.0 


8.2 


7.8 


7.0 


6.3 


8.3 


7.1 


7.4 


6.8 


6.9 


7.6 


7.4 


7.2 


6.8 


6.3 


7.1 


7.0 


6.8 


7.6 


5.9 


6.7 


7.3 


6.1 


7.3 


8.3 


4.9 


6.6 


7.0 


5.0 


7.1 


8.2 


4.0 


5.5 


5,6 


4.0 


5.9 


6.6 


3.1 


4.3 


4.5 


3.2 


4.7 


5.3 


2.1 


3.0 


3.8 


2.1 


3.2 


4.5 


1.2 


1.7 


2.6 


1.2 


1.8 


3.0 


.6 


.8 


1.2 


.6 


.9 • 


1.5 


.2 


.3 


.4 


.2 


.3 


.5 


- 


.1 


.1 


- 


.1 


.1 



Total 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 100.0 lOo.O 



100.0 100.0 10'^. 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



h'xtimatt'y (if Fiiliirc l'o/>ill(lti(iii til tlir I'liital Slates, lf)/,n-2rHl(l 135 

Table 21: Percent Distribution by 5-Yeer k^e Periods, for the llatlve V/hlte 
Population of the United States, 1900-3000 



C. Temale Population - Estimates based on Medium Mortality 



Age 1900 1940 



O--! 


13.9 


8.5 


5-9 


13.3 


8.6 


10-14 


11.8 


9.5 


15-19 


10.7 


10.1 


20-24 


9.8 


9.6 


25-29 


8.3 


9.0 


30-34 


6.7 


8.0 


35-39 


5.7 


7.0 


40-44 


5.0 


6.2 


45-49 


3.9 


5.6 


50-54 


3.1 


4.8 


55-59 


2.4 


3.8 


60-64 


1.9 


3.2 


65-69 


1.4 


2.6 


70-74 


.9 


1.7 


75-79 


.6 


1.0 


80-64 


.3 


.6 


85-89 


.1 


.2 


90-94 


- 


.. 


95(£- over 


- 


« 



High Fertility 




1960 


1980 


2000 


7.6 


7.4 


7.3 


8.3 


7.7 


7.5 


8.4 


7.5 


7.4 


8.2 


7.2 


7.3 


7.2 


7.0 


7.2 


6.8 


7.2 


7.1 


7.5 


7.3 


6.8 


7.9 


7.1 


6.5 


7.5 


6.1 


6.4 


6.9 


5.8 


6.4 


6.0 


6.2 


6.4 


5.1 


6.3 


6.0 


4.2 


5.6 


4.9 


3.4 


4.6 


4.1 


2.4 


3.4 


3.7 


1.5 


2.1 


2.8 


.8 


1.1 


1.5 


.3 


.4 


.6 


.1 


.1 


.1 



Medium 


Fertility 


Low : 


Fertility 




1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


200C 


6.9 


6.1 


5.7 


6.2 


4.9 


4.2 


7.7 


6.7 


6.2 


7.1 


5.7 


4.7 


8.2 


6.8 


6.2 


8.0 


6.0 


5.0 


8.3 


6.7 


6.4 


8.4 


6.2 


5.4 


7.4 


6.7 


6.6 


7.5 


6.4 


5.8 


7.0 


7.0 


6.8 


7.1 


6.8 


6.3 


7.7 


7.4 


6.8 


7.8 


7.6 


6.6 


8.1 


7.5 


6.7 


8.2 


8.0 


6.7 


7.6 


6.6 


6.7 


7,8 


7.1 


6.9 


7.0 


6.2 


6.9 


7.2 


6.7 


7.3 


6.1 


6.7 


7.2 


6.3 


7.2 


8.1 


5.2 


6.8 


7.0 


5.3 


7.3 


8.1 


4.3 


6.0 


5.8 


4.4 


6.5 


6.8 


3.5 


5.0 


4.9 


3.5 


5.4 


5.7 


2.5 


3.6 


4.4 


2.5 


3.9 


5.2 


1.5 


2.3 


3.3 


1.5 


2.4 


3.9 


.8 


1.2 


1.8 


.8 


1.3 


2.1 


.3 


.4 


.7 


.3 


.5 


.8 


.1 


.1 


.2 


.1 


.1 


.2 



Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 



136 



National liesource-t /'lanning Board 



Table 22: Percent Distribution by 5-Year Age Periods, for the Colored 
Popjaation of the United States, 1900-2000. 

(Confuted without adjustment for the underenumeration of chlldr4n} 



A. Total PoDUlation - Sstiraatea based on Medium Mortality 



Age 



1900 



1940 



0-4 


13.7 


9.8 


5-9 


13.6 


10.1 


10-14 


12.3 


10.4 


15-19 


11.1 


10.2 


20-24 


11.0 


9.3 


25-29 


8.4 


8.9 


30-34 


6.1 


7.7 


35-39 


5.5 


7.6 


40-44 


4.3 


6.3 


45-49 


3.8 


5.4 


50-54 


3.3 


4.3 


50-59 


2.1 


2.1 


60-54 


1.9 


2.3 


6S-69 


1.1 


2.3 


70-74 


.8 


1.3 


75-79 


.4 


.6 


80-84 


.3 


.3 


85-89 


.2 


,2 


90-94 


.1 


.1 


95 & over 


- 


- 



High Fertility 



1960 



1980 



2000 



9.4 


9.1 


8.6 


10.5 


10.2 


9.7 


10.3 


9.8 


9.3 


10.0 


9.3 


8.8 


8.6 


8.4 


8.4 


7.5 


7.9 


8.0 


7.5 


7.7 


7.5 


7.1 


7.3 


7.0 


6.3 


6.1 


6.3 


5.8 


5.2 


5.8 


4.7 


4.9 


5.4 


4.2 


4.3 


4.8 


3.0 


3.4 


3.6 


2.1 


2.6 


2.5 


1.4 


1.7 


1.9 


.8 


1.1 


1.3 


.4 


.6 


.7 


.3 


.3 


.3 


.1 


.1 


.1 



Medium Fertility 


Low Fei 


rtility 




1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


8.5 


7.5 


6.6 


7.7 


6.0 


4.8 


9.8 


8.9 


7.9 


9.0 


7.5 


6.1 


10.1 


8.9 


7.9 


9.9 


7.9 


6.4 


10.2 


8.7 


7.9 


10.3 


8.1 


6.7 


8.9 


8.2 


7.8 


9.1 


8.0 


7.0 


7.7 


8.0 


7.8 


7.9 


7.9 


7.4 


7.7 


8.1 


7.7 


7.9 


8.5 


7.7 


7.3 


8.0 


7.4 


7.6 


8.7 


7.8 


6.5 


6.8 


6.9 


6.6 


7.5 


7.5 


5.9 


5.7 


6.6 


6.1 


6.4 


7.3 


4.8 


5.5 


6.4 


5.0 


6.0 


7.5 


4.3 


4.8 


5.9 


4.4 


5.3 


7.2 


3.0 


3.8 


4.4 


3.1 


4.2 


5.5 


2.2 


2.9 


3.2 


2.3 


3.2 


4.0 


1.5 


1.9 


2.4 


1.5 


2.1 


3.0 


.8 


1.3 


1.6 


.8 


1.4 


2.0 


.5 


.7 


.9 


.5 


.7 


1.1 


.3 


.3 


.4 


.3 


.3 


.5 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.2 



Total 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



Age 



1900 



1940 



Male Population - Sstimates based on Medium Mortality 
High Fertility Medium Fertility 

1960 1980 2000 



0-4 


13.6 


9.9 


5-9 


13.5 


10.2 


10-14 


12.3 


10.6 


15-19 


10.7 


10.0 


20-24 


10.4 


8.8 


25-29 


8.3 


8.4 


30-34 


6.1 


7.5 


35-39 


5.6 


7.4 


40-44 


4.4 


6.4 


45-49 


4.1 


5.5 


50-54 


3.7 


4.6 


55-59 


2.3 


3.3 


60-64 


2.0 


2.5 


65-69 


1.3 


2.4 


70-74 


.8 


1.3 


75-79 


.5 


.6 


80-84 


.3 


.3 


85-89 


.1 


.1 


90-94 


- 


.1 


95 & over 


- 


- 



Low Fertility 



9.6 


9.2 


8.6 


10.8 


10.4 


9.8 


10.6 


9.9 


9.4 


10.3 


9.3 


8.9 


8.8 


8.6 


8.5 


7.6 


8.1 


8.1 


7.5 


7.8 


7.6 


7.0 


7.4 


7.0 


5.9 


6.2 


6.4 


5.4 


5.2 


5.8 


4.5 


4.9 


5.4 


4.0 


4.2 


4.7 


2.9 


3.1 


3.5 


2.1 


2.4 


2.5 


1.4 


1.6 


1.9 


.8 


1.0 


1.1 


.4 


.5 


.6 


.2 


.2 


.2 


- 


.1 


.1 



1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


8.7 
10.1 
10.4 
10.4 


7.6 
9.1 
9.1 
8.9 


6.7 
8.0 

6.0 
8.0 


7.6 

9.3 

10.2 

10.6 

9.3 


6.1 
7.7 
8.1 
8.3 
8.1 


4.9 

6.2 
6.5 
6.9 
7.2 


9.1 


8.4 


7.9 






7.8 
7.8 
7.2 
6.1 
5.6 


8.1 
8.2 
8.1 
6.9 
5.7 


7.9 
7.8 
7.5 
7.0 
6.6 


8.0 
8.0 
7.4 
6.2 
5.8 


8.1 
8.7 
8.9 
7.6 
6.4 


7.6 
7.9 
7.9 
7.6 
7.4 


4.6 


5.4 


6.4 


4.8 
4.2 
3.1 
2.3 

1.5 


6.0 
5.1 


7.6 
7.2 


4.1 


4.6 


5.8 


3.8 


5.5 


3.0 


3.4 


4.4 


3.0 


3.9 


2.2 


2.7 


3.1 


1.9 


2.9 


1.5 


1.7 


2.3 












.8 
.4 
.2 
.1 


1.2 


1.8 


.8 


1.1 


1.4 


.6 


.9 


.4 


.6 


.7 


.3 


.4 


.2 


.2 


.3 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 


.1 




- 



Total 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



100.0 100.0 100.0 



h'stinidtfx of Fiiturr rojiul(itit)ii of tlii I'liitcd Siaics, l.').',0-2000 JQ? 

Table 22: Percent Elstrlbutlon by 5-Tear A£:e Periods, for the Colored 
Populstlon of the United Stetee, 1900-?!000.'^ 



C. Female Population - Estimates based on Medium Mortality 

High rertility Mediup Fertility Low Fertility 

Age 1900 1940 i960 1980 2000 

9.6 9.2 9.0 8.5 

10.0 10.2 10.0 9.6 

10.2 10.1 9.6 9.2 

10.3 9.8 9.0 8.7 

9.8 8.4 8.3 8.3 

9.3 7.4 7.8 7.9 

7.9 7.4 7.6 7.5 
7.9 7.2 7.2 6.9 
6.3 6.7 6.1 6.3 
5.2 6.1 5.2 5.8 

4.0 4.9 5.0 5.4 
2.9 4.4 4.5 4.8 

2.1 3.0 3.7 3.6 

2.2 2.1 2.9 2.6 
1.2 1.4 1.9 2.0 

.6 .8 1.3 1.4 

.3 .5 .7 .9 

.2 .3 .3 .5 

.1 .1 .1 .2 

.1 „._ _-- --.1 

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 



0-4 


13.8 


5-9 


13.6 


10-14 


12.3 


15-19 


11.5 


20-24 


11.5 


25-29 


8.5 


30-34 


5.9 


35-39 


5.5 


40-44 


4.3 


45-49 


3.6 


50-54 


3.1 


66-59 


1.9 


60-54 


1.7 


65-69 


1.1 


70-74 


.8 


75-79 


.5 


80-34 


.3 


85-89 


.1 


yO-94 


.1 


95 & over .1 



1960 


1980 


2000 


1960 


1980 


2000 


8.4 


7.4 


6.6 


7.5 


5.9 


4.8 


9.5 


8.7 


7.8 


8.8 


7.3 


6.0 


9.8 


8.7 


7.8 


9.6 


7.7 


6.3 


9.9 


8.5 


7.8 


10.1 


7.9 


6.6 


8.7 


8.1 


7.7 


8.9 


7.8 


6.9 


7.6 


7,8 


7.7 


7.8 


7.8 


7.3 


7.6 


7.9 


7.7 


7.8 


8.4 


7.6 


7.4 


7.9 


7.4 


7.6 


8.6 


7.7 


6.9 


6.7 


6.9 


7.0 


7.4 


7.5 


6.3 


5.8 


6.5 


6.4 


6.4 


7.3 


5.0 


5.5 


6.4 


5.1 


6.1 


7.5 


4.5 


5.0 


5.9 


4.6 


5.5 


7.2 


3.1 


4.1 


4.5 


3.2 


4.5 


5.6 


2.2 


3.2 


3.3 


2.3 


3.5 


4.0 


1.4 


2.1 


2.5 


l.S 


2.3 


3.1 


.8 


1.4 


1.8 


.8 


1.6 


2.2 


.5 


.7 


1.1 


.5 


.8 


1.3 


.3 


.4 


.6 


.4 


.4 


.7 


.1 


.1 


.2 


.1 


.1 


.3 



U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1943 O - 536726